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Werewolf - Winter Is Here - Game of Thrones II Game Thread
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Join Date:Posts: 49355
Ok so I need to break this into parts as there are 161 posts here, not all are really relevant but it's the largest ISO I've ever attempted. I think there's a lot of stuff that can point one way or the other here though as I keep saying someone needs to sanity check my work.Why question Mick and not others? Specifically me? Sad face
One of beaker's first posts, in the hard light of day we can see in a jokey way him trying to draw attention away from MickaroonieWhat has you uncinvinced about just 1 baddie?
Trying to put thoughts into Ecto's head about there being only 1 starting baddie.I dont mind the ISO day one stuff, nothing wrong with someone looking for clues.
That said I wouldnt be lynching someone for pure fluff on day zero.
Responding directly to Mick here, attempted pocket of sKeith? I think they were sizing him up as a 'good cop, bad cop' attempt from early on.No clear lynch candidate for me. My FFA will be based on whom would be the best convert choice.
Ok so here we go, beaker wants to focus on the convert. Now we know why that is
Skeith and Andy would be my choice but maybe too obvious.
BH always manages to get to end game so hed be my choice. Has a knack of flying under the radar.
Necro too, mainly cause he tends to not change his style and spam his way into peoples good lists.
This is all glorious, glorious WIFOM here. Do we think beaker actually names who they converted on thread? I'm not sure. I lean no, but he has balls of steel so he could be pointing to either sKeith or BH (I know I'm good and Eva/Dandy is flipped green). Thoughts?So ...... whos bang in the middle, who would you pick if its you?
He then badgers Lord about his picks for converts, putting him under a little bit of pressure. It's not really revisited though even though Lord does respondMe, personally?
Going off Keith's post count and percentages, I'd have probably gone with some people either side of me. Two either side if Guffy, Drump, Ecto and GnR. Cut Drump cause then I'd have to have changed stances on my susipcions of him from yesterday, but I had zero interaction with any of those other three.
But that's me, personally. A higher poster like Necro would probably choose a lower poster like Stu, Mick or 2D to balance himself out. Vice versa too, a lower poster would probably look for a high poster.
My main worry right now though is as a village, I'd be kind of worried we're dangerously close to lynching a high posting experienced player on the back of a fear its who "we" (as in, each individual poster's thoughts gathered into a collective obvious decision) would convert. Which will possibly lead to a really efficient villager getting lynched tonight.
Beaker never retorts to this that I can see. But there's an interaction at least.I never thought of that possibility.
Player wins a prize, is turned and uses prize to kill a villager.
Responds to me about prize theory. I'm of the belief now that they avoided the day 1 prize winners because it was too obvious of a place to look.To find Flanders I have to think like Flanders.
Seriously though, with 2 people on the NK team before convert, id wager one at least is experienced enough to chose a calculated convert.
More WIFOM. I wonder is this a barefaced lie and they decided to go for a complete rookie as a curveball. More on that later.It may lead us to why she was offed and maybe by whom.
I find it odd that you of all people dont wish to do that.
Did you kill Clarabel i wonder
Light shade of me, beaker here wanted to use me to link the kill back to Ecto I think. I'm not sure what finding the prize winner through Clara's posts would have resolved, but it's another clear indication they haven't a clue who killed her. IMO.Most folks get FFAd for stupid reasons on day one, youre post a lot style means you say more than others so usually get FFAd as a result.
Clear pocket attempt on me, I would say that though.Nice to see my name on FFAs for no reason. Never change you guys. It is day one, i wont hold it against yas.
#FFA1
1. BH. My pick for the convert. For those wondering I think uts easier to find a convert than the NK. If anyone has a special way to find a NK im all ears. Its easier to speculate as to who and why someone might pick a convert. BH is the best option. A good pick but not as obvious as SK or Andy in my eyes.
I
2. And 3.
Ive no other suspects. I feel many are leaning good and the rest havent done anything sus.
I feel andy is strange but strange is village IMO. Guffy and Mick seem off but not ready to tar them with a shade brush. Im always concerned that skeith is so good at this game that hes bad always, but thats unfair to him if hed actually good.
More WIFOM at the bottom. I'm gonna say Bounty is definitely not the day 1 convert based on this. I don't think beaker busses Bounty this hard on day 1... though he has form *Shrugs*
More mentions of Mick his buddy and Guffy in the same sentence. Again would he blast both his partners in the same sentence. That's more likely than BH being the day 1 convert, imo. But unlikely.
And finally a mention of sKeith again. The two OGs are running a constant thing against sKeith, I don't think he's converted at this point in time in the thread at least anyways.
Now the next post I'm interested in... it's not beaker's but it's Micks FFA...Deleted User wrote: »FFA 1
Skeith: (NK) I think his day 0 iso where a data gathering experiment to see which iso would be likely to gain heat and he would convert the safer ones.
His isos where on LadyS, Trit, Tusk, Stu, H2pb, so I feel one of these could be the convert, Tusk is standing out as playing different to yesterday of these but he did say it was his birthday.
So based on this tusk is NOT the day 1 convert. It's a really icky shading of a fellow low poster. Ditto sKeith. I wonder though would he run through a player vomit and mention his convert - ie Skunk/Riona or 2D. It's in reference to sKeith's ISOs but... with Mick playing fairly low key I do wonder if they'd convert a fellow low poster night 0. Hard to know. Doubtful.Tusk didnt really play yesterday to be fair, just playing today.
And the reason I quoted Mick's FFA as it's a direct interaction (there's fcuk all of them). Soft defence of tusk - I see it more though as a pocket attempt tbh. Again he's done this before with sKeith, the good cop to Mick's bad one. There's huge similarities here.How would a bandwagon form on Necro?
And if so why stop it.... why defend him? He could be evil
Challenging Dandy on defending me. Either alignment I sort of agree with his thoughts here. But it's light shade any way you shake it.No, point me to why you get that vibe?
This is responding to fixxxer who was on about the possibility of tusk and BH having a backroom. I think he's trying to latch on here to get a BH wagon rolling.But i theory he could be an OG bad guy no? Just cause hes not converted doenst mean hes good.Fair enough. Trust yer gut n all that
The next two posts are again responding to Dandy about me. Again some more shade but backs off as Dandy is steadfast.Thats if the meltdown was real..... weve all seen faux meltdowns on here. Goes without saying not to believe everything
This is about tusk again. And this time it's some minor shade. It's a clever post.To be fair, just because you revealed a prize win doenst mean you've to be trusted.
However, I'm believing Andy more and more and by proxy you.
Still both could be evil. Im awful at reading on day 1
More interaction with me, pocketing the hell out of Dandy (and by proxy me :P )I need to be sold on Ted more to vote for him. Little cuddly fella
Looking for a reason to plonk his vote on Ted. He knows Ted is village here remember.I think its too early to tell whos bad yet. Ive several good reads, such as Andy.
Right now my vote is in BH , but thats based on what would be my choice of a convert, which isnt really fair on BH and helps the village zero if hes not to be lynched.
So Im open to my vote for someone else.
Im neutral on tusk, ted and guffy, some if the names on the ffas thus far.
If there was no convert, id be stuck to vote anyone over the next.
Back to BH. Yeah I'm pretty damn confident BH isn't converted night 0 anyways. The WIFOM below it is exactly that, hard to speculate but Rule of 3 and all..That said, Mick could be a choice. I feel hes usually more active but hed claiming sick and im taking him at face value.
But he could be a lying low wolf too who is ....well lying about his illness.
Sway me on Ted guys
Mentions Mick. Briefly. Back to talking about Ted and a light attempt to divert anyone considering MickAnd the United match is on now, so i will stick with my own FFA i thinks
Doubles down on BH, even though he's voted him really early. BH is clean as a whistle for day 1 guys. I'd bet my house on it - if I had a house.This post at 9 just after lynch bothers me. So soon after lynch yet no clue Ted was good or bad yet.
Am I too paranoid?
Post lynch and the fixxxer shade begins. Remember they attempted to convert him night 2 (which will come later, this is a massive ISO)Is communicating with a dead absent player allowed.
Ok so I dunno if I should bring this up but it's on the game thread so I'm going to.
I don't think a wolf handles a partner like this. I'd be almost willing to clear Skunk based off this post.You said a lot of strange things but thats very senisble.
To answer Necros question for him, selfishness. The answer is selfishness
A man after my own heart is Necro.
We havent bickered yet, feels weird
Responding to Guffy here. And more pocketing of me.Whos your fav to be the nightking?
Right now Im leaning on Fixxxer based on his 902pm post. It seemed Disenguinous to me, esp now that his vote was placed at 835pm. Cant shake it that hes bad since then
Responds here to GnR and more pushing of fixxxer.Necro and skeith with very late votes on Ted there.
Worth noting. The latest of any votes there.
If they did lump on Ted as wolves, who was it to save.... 2D was the other lad close to the chop. Others had 2 votes but didnt seem to be close to being lynched
And switches to shading me and sKeith. Remember only a max of one player if any of the two of us are converts at this stage.
His first real mention of 2D though.What specificly made you feel them?
Hmmmm. he's responding to GnR here about ISOing Lord and BH. I'm wondering is he trying to eek out something about Lord. I don't think GnR even responds. So
I vote BH as I felt he was best choice for convert. Did I feel like changing, yes. Did I feel strongly enough to change nope
I always vote early to make sure i never miss a vote.
And finally, again pushing BH as a convert. SO......
Based completely off his own posts and also a few bits and bobs from Mick I'd rule out
BH
sKeith
tusk
Skunk
Guffy
as day 1 converts.
Which leaves us with
Lord (minor interactions about convert choices, nothing else before or after)
2D (literally one single mention of them at the end)
Ecto (no interactions, but Ecto did vote him, least likely for day 1 anyways)
Gotta be honest, I'm pretty darn confident that the convert is one of Lord or 2D for day 1, ngl.0 -
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Thanks, now read my day 0/day 1 ISO of beaker and tell me what you think
A few thoughts on your iso- you’ve ruled out
BH
sKeith
tusk
Skunk
Guffy
As first converts.
If guffy wasn’t converted first up then we know they weren’t converted since Jamie’s prize would seem to prevent that from a then on
Tusk has been posting in a style that feels wolfy to me as of yesterday. May not have been first convert but I think a few posters picked him up on this yesterday. I’ll need to iso him and see how it looks
Skunk is now me so I can tell you I’m not a convert (obviously cant prove it)0 -
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Look I'm obviously still here because I'm either bang on in my judgement or very wrong. I severely doubt they think I'm a mislynch opportunity.
I need to figure out which that is right now
I'm just going to ask you a question, on the chance you're a villager.
What's your take on Beaker's game play style? Indulge my meta for a second, but what type of player do you take Beaker as?0 -
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Where had Mick left to claim though, Jaime and Jon Snow were the only OP characters that were not outed at this point.
Who knows what the wolves were thinking, I certainly don't. I don't really like speculating there, cos at the end of the day, I'm not a wolf
I had that prize since day 1 and they didn't convert me - that is also bizarre behaviour to me tbh.
So yes, he's calculating, but he is not infallible - no one is. They had a chance for one of them to have a second life and they passed that up, that's also a mistake if we're talking in those terms.
You're side stepping the question there, Necro
I'm not asking about the character. I'm wondering bout the power claim. I didn't reference "Bran" once.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 49355
You're side stepping the question there, Necro
I'm not asking about the character. I'm wondering bout the power claim. I didn't reference "Bran" once.
I don't know the answer, I'm not a wolf.
It's not a pivot, it's not anything.
I simply don't know why.
I can speculate - maybe Mick panicked and revealed at a time beaker wasn't there to check his work.
I don't like doing that though because I'm not sure how focusing on why an outed, dead wolf made a ham-fisted claim helps us find the two converts.0 -
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