Share Picks 2018

unplayable · 17-01-2019 3:20pm

any thoughts on aryzta. mccann did turnaround smurfit kappa eventually. plenty of potential upside here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/YZA:ID

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/richard-curran-chairman-mcganns-woes-at-aryzta-just-went-from-bad-to-worse-36950022.html

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/honestly-i-dont-know-aryztas-gary-mcgann-on-whether-he-would-have-taken-chairman-role-knowing-extent-of-company-problems-37699783.html

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/determination-paying-off-26820426.html

i appreciate this could be like catching a falling knife.

UsBus · 17-01-2019 3:26pm

butrasgali wrote: »

Why are Ryan air shares so low..would this be a good time to invest..?

Ya saw this earlier as well. If I had spare cash to invest I would go with them. Once the UK settles down I'd expect them to increase..

ballyharpat · 17-01-2019 9:23pm

bcklschaps wrote: »

Buying stocks on borrowed money (margin) is a dangerous game. Every stock investment manual warns you about it. Did it myself as a novice and paid the price back around 2001.

You are paying the interest on the borrowed money and the broker charges....before you ever make a cent in profit....and that's when your portfolio's in profit. If it's in loss, then things escalate pretty quickly :'-(

Ive been trading for 15 years, as a novice, I never borrowed, once I had 10 years in and had made enough to be comfortable, I started playing with stocks a bit more, I borrowed highly to get into oil at $27 per barrel, sold at 60, Ive had a couple of other plays since then, thanks for the advice, we all have different goals. If I borrow at 5%, and the stock goes up 20%, I am up 15%, if it doesn't, I'm only down 5%, as I am still putting my own money into the market, if it goes up 10% in a month, I pay 1/2% interest, if I sell at the 10%.

Horses for courses. And like i said, 10 years ago, I wouldn't have done it, but I'm not in need of the money, can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs. and BTW, I wouldn't give anyone else financial advice-or I wouldn't take it from someone that doesn't know my circumstances

delta_bravo · 18-01-2019 11:07am

ballyharpat wrote: »

If I borrow at 5%, and the stock goes up 20%, I am up 15%, if it doesn't, I'm only down 5%, as I am still putting my own money into the market, if it goes up 10% in a month, I pay 1/2% interest, if I sell at the 10%.

You sound fairly knowledgeable but it could also tank and you have to use other funds to pay off your loan. The only options are not that it will go up or stay the same

q85dw7osi4lebg · 18-01-2019 11:10am

Ryanair back below 10 after profit warning, I'm tempted..

Mickiemcfist · 22-01-2019 3:36pm

Anybody got their eye on Datalex? Seems like the stock price took a significant overreaction.

TG860 · 22-01-2019 4:51pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Anybody got their eye on Datalex? Seems like the stock price took a significant overreaction.

It's difficult to tell whether it's an overreaction or not when you can't trust the accounts that they've put out.
Realistically you're speculating rather than investing if you dive in at the moment.

Sunderland00 · 23-01-2019 9:02pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Anybody got their eye on Datalex? Seems like the stock price took a significant overreaction.

Not really, should be around that to be fair.

scheister · 24-01-2019 4:52pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Anybody got their eye on Datalex? Seems like the stock price took a significant overreaction.

if you look at the 2019 thread few in there went in a 1 or 1.05 and jumped between 1.25 and 1.30. I see it is back down to 1.06 now. Not sure would it be worth going in now.

littlevillage · 30-01-2019 2:08pm

thereality wrote: »

It is bizarre that Smurfit Kappa that was valued at €37.54 in a takeover offer are now valued at under €22 not even with 6 months.

Read your post and it struck a cord with me, I went straight onto Degiro and bought some Smurfit Kappa at €22.15 per share, sold today at €26.80, nice one buddy :-)

There's probably even more 'road' in Smurfit with results coming out next Month and a nice 3.5% Divie in April, but no point in being too greedy. Will get back in if it falls into the 25's

q85dw7osi4lebg · 30-01-2019 2:13pm

littlevillage wrote: »

Read your post and it struck a cord with me, I went straight onto Degiro and bought some Smurfit Kappa at €22.15 per share, sold today at €26.80, nice one buddy :-)

There's probably even more 'road' in Smurfit with results coming out next Month and a nice 3.5% Divie in April, but no point in being too greedy. Will get back in if it falls into the 25's

I bought at 26 and sold at 22 haha

littlevillage · 30-01-2019 2:16pm

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

I bought at 26 and sold at 22 haha

You've been reading the Little Village investment playbook :'-(

q85dw7osi4lebg · 30-01-2019 6:15pm

NIO finally making some moves.

ballyharpat · 30-01-2019 9:34pm

I bought Itky.as at 11.10 (average) a few months ago, sold today at €16. 2 very good days, Apple and USO both making big gains.

Gruffalo22 · 05-02-2019 1:51pm

Gruffalo22 wrote: »

With a high dividend, improving outlook and 230m share buyback in progress I don't plan on selling for the forseeable future. I am hoping that the SP will continue to rise and no guarantees but hopefully will reach 18GBP over the next year or two. Brexit is obviously a big uncertainty for UK shares. MCRO is at book value (significant goodwill & intangibles) though so relatively safe long term. The SUSE sale money is funding the buybacks which will continue until next February and I think a further tranche/other return to shareholders will be announced after. It'll be used to pay down debt also.

You can check the buyback progress here under regulatory news

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary/GB00BD8YWM01GBGBXSET1.html

I would be inclined to keep my core holdings but buy extra on large dips (in the 12s) for trading purposes as others have done. The SP fell after the first tranche of buybacks ended. I bought some more around 12 when the second buyback was announced

Share chat here
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/micro-focus-international-MCRO/share-chat

I sold out MCRO today. I think their current buyback is nearing the end and with a Brexit slowdown, high intangibles etc its a good time.
I'll keep the funds for the next recession. Earnings are in a week

reade · 07-02-2019 4:04pm

i sold all my holdings in ING group, Siemens, Infineon, Amazon, Apple and put the proceeds into a MSCI world ETF.

Investing in invidual shares is not working for me

Cute Hoor · 03-04-2019 11:17am

Gruffalo22 wrote: »

Micro Focus International on the London Stock exchange (MCRO) lost 55% of its value yesterday then recovered to 45% loss.

Made 20% on this yesterday and expect to make more in the next few days/weeks as the shares are undervalued. Up 2% already today

The recovery is complete, now back up to where it was pre-crash, took 14 months. If you held on you've done very nicely.

cefh17 · 03-04-2019 11:51am

Cute Hoor wrote: »

The recovery is complete, now back up to where it was pre-crash, took 14 months. If you held on you've done very nicely.

BEP is £13 so it's my best performing one, pity I have feck all of it as a proportion of my total holding. Where do you see it going? Saw there's dividends coming out but shareholders weren't impressed with the bonuses awarded to the higher ups

Cute Hoor · 03-04-2019 1:41pm

cefh17 wrote: »

BEP is £13 so it's my best performing one, pity I have feck all of it as a proportion of my total holding. Where do you see it going? Saw there's dividends coming out but shareholders weren't impressed with the bonuses awarded to the higher ups

The head honchos have until September 2020 to 'earn' their controversial £270m bonuses by getting the share price up to £34, if they succeed in that most investors would probably be comfortable enough with them getting the bonus.

Gruffalo22 · 04-04-2019 5:33pm

Cute Hoor wrote: »

The recovery is complete, now back up to where it was pre-crash, took 14 months. If you held on you've done very nicely.

Mcro - Yes double your money if you held it all the way. I sold a short while ago but made a nice profit with dividends and cap appreciation

Captainsatnav · 09-05-2019 12:21pm

D'Agger wrote: »

EVR Holdings continuing to slide

Currently at 5.80

Anybody here hanging on to them or cutting losses and dumping?

:eek: wtf happened this morn...:(

q85dw7osi4lebg · 09-05-2019 3:48pm

SPY taking a dip. Keep an eye out for any bargains. Won't be doing anything for another week at least, see what happens trade wise. Not much talk of a recession compared to 3 months ago but the last week has been nervy for some.

BA
Amazon
BRK B

All on my watch list.

tommylimerick · 16-05-2019 4:21pm

my mid-year investments OSTK -17% over last 2 days 2 year price target 70
Zynga on upward trend have lots of games with tokens and money
cosmic coin cryptocurrency

D'Agger · 20-05-2019 9:17am

Captainsatnav wrote: »

:eek: wtf happened this morn...:(

Yup tis just about £2.90 at the moment, fairly mental dip and lesson learned from it on my end. I'd always said I'd hold on to it as it was a fairly minor investment I made but if it gets back up to an anyway decent price I'll dump.

littlevillage · 21-01-2020 2:26am

b4bmm wrote: »

Tawana resources. TAW Asx Lithium player. Tipped this a while back when it was mid 20s. Approaching 50c now and has a long way to run. Way undervalued compared to peers. Best mangement in the lithium space. Big year ahead.

Nzuri copper. NZC, Asx cobalt/copper play. Being buying this from high teens and it ran hard before I could get all I wanted. It’s low 30s now which is similar to my average buy in price. Very good buy at this level. Lowest capital cost cobalt play on the asx. Located in Congo. Strong Chinese partners. Big exploration upside. This will go hard in 2018 is way undervalued compare to poor grade high capex asx cobalt peers. Management owns over 50% of compnay extremely tight register. Feasibility study already proven robust economics for the project now optimatstion studies being carried out which will take the NPV to a whole new level and the SP along with it hopefully. This is by far the best cobalt play on the asx right now imo.

Wish everyone a prosperous 2018

NZC - Have been holding these suckers for about 18 Months. Finally paid off, got out tonight at AUD $0.36 .. by BEP was AUD $0.28 soo not a bad piece of businesss thanks for the tip bud.

Sadly I also invested in Tawana back then .... (which is a complete bust)

and Magnis Resources .. another turkey.. (got about half my money back for them)

But as the saying goes.. experience isn't free.... :rolleyes:

needless-to-say I will never invest in ASX again.

MrMusician18 · 21-01-2020 2:33am

littlevillage wrote: »

Anybody follow Moneybags in the Phoenix magazine. Glowing report on Ormonde Mining (ISEQ, LSE) today.

https://www.thephoenix.ie/article/ormonde-minings-patient-shareholders-set-for-payday/

Might take a punt for the fun. Hopefully will be another Providence Resources :-)

What a dud this turned out to be... Sigh

littlevillage · 21-01-2020 2:46am

MrMusician18 wrote: »

What a dud this turned out to be... Sigh

Got in and out with a few profitable trades on Ormond back when I recommended it.... SP regularly yo-yo'd from 4p upto 5p and even 6p and then back down again. It was money for nothing

It looks a busted flush now. Hope you didn't get left holding a bag (of Oaktree 'magic beans')?

MrMusician18 · 21-01-2020 3:22am

littlevillage wrote: »

Got in and out with a few profitable trades on Ormond back when I recommended it.... SP regularly yo-yo'd from 4p upto 5p and even 6p and then back down again. It was money for nothing

It looks a busted flush now. Hope you didn't get left holding a bag (of Oaktree 'magic beans')?

It's now a fairly empty bag of low grade tungsten ore... Ffs. Yeah, wouldn't be surprised if they decided to wind up now.

b4bmm · 21-01-2020 2:44pm

littlevillage wrote: »

NZC - Have been holding these suckers for about 18 Months. Finally paid off, got out tonight at AUD $0.36 .. by BEP was AUD $0.28 soo not a bad piece of businesss thanks for the tip bud.

Sadly I also invested in Tawana back then .... (which is a complete bust)

and Magnis Resources .. another turkey.. (got about half my money back for them)

But as the saying goes.. experience isn't free.... :rolleyes:

needless-to-say I will never invest in ASX again.

There has been some very expensive lessons for me but luckily I have bounced back. You cant lose the amount of money I have done on the stockmarket and not learn a lot of lessons. ADT in 2019 and ADT again in 2020.

Good luck.

ANXIOUS · 21-02-2020 2:13pm

TG860 wrote: »

Thought I would share a company I have been tracking lately, Centamin [font=arial, sans-serif]LSE:CEY. [/font]
This is a gold mining company listed on the LSE AIM. They own a well established low cost mine in Egypt as well as a little exploration in West Africa.
In the last few days the share price has been shorted heavily and it is currently sitting at around 90p.
There hasn't been any material updates since their interim results in early August to suggest that the current share price is reasonable.
While their interim results noted some disappointing gold production in Q2, the full year guidance was maintained and management expects Q3 and Q4 performance to make up for weak Q2 performance.

The current market cap is £1 billion. It's debt free and has cash of £232m at the end of June. (Approx 20p per share).
H1 EPS was 3p per share, I would expect that H2 would perform a little better than this. Even if you conservatively take the same result for H2, this gives you EPS of 6p per share.

That's a cash adjusted PE ratio of 11.6 (90p current price - 20p cash per share / 6p EPS) which in my opinion is a very reasonable PE in the current market.
They also paid a dividend of 9.60p last year, which I would expect them to match this year. That's a dividend yield of approx 10.6% on the current share price.

Based on the business' underlying fundamentals, the current share price is far lower than I think it should be. While the gold price has declined since H1, they have a low cost gold mine and should still be comfortably profitable at current prices. Given the high amount of short selling recently, whenever the share price does stabilise, I expect it to revert back towards it's previous 130-160p range.
I have bought some at 90.28p today.

Just looking back on this after being away a while I am up 70% thank you. Are you still invested?

Share Picks 2018

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