Share Picks 2018

11-09-2018 11:23am

Bandana boy wrote: »

I like Ryan Air long term but Tesla is a much bigger risk .........

Indeed, Tesla longterm is a huge risk. The Chinese projects are mitigation IMO for my shortterm investment, to an extent, accepting that the share is madly volatile.

valoren · 11-09-2018 1:41pm

Intel trading at fair value per dividend adjusted peg ratio.

Wheety · 11-09-2018 3:20pm

littlevillage wrote: »

Yes and yes

I've put in an order for Ryanair at 12.70. Think it may drop tomorrow when the strike goes ahead and it's in the papers. Might drop it to €12.50 but maybe that's a bit too far?

TG860 · 12-09-2018 3:50pm

Thought I would share a company I have been tracking lately, Centamin [font=arial, sans-serif]LSE:CEY. [/font]
This is a gold mining company listed on the LSE AIM. They own a well established low cost mine in Egypt as well as a little exploration in West Africa.
In the last few days the share price has been shorted heavily and it is currently sitting at around 90p.
There hasn't been any material updates since their interim results in early August to suggest that the current share price is reasonable.
While their interim results noted some disappointing gold production in Q2, the full year guidance was maintained and management expects Q3 and Q4 performance to make up for weak Q2 performance.

The current market cap is £1 billion. It's debt free and has cash of £232m at the end of June. (Approx 20p per share).
H1 EPS was 3p per share, I would expect that H2 would perform a little better than this. Even if you conservatively take the same result for H2, this gives you EPS of 6p per share.

That's a cash adjusted PE ratio of 11.6 (90p current price - 20p cash per share / 6p EPS) which in my opinion is a very reasonable PE in the current market.
They also paid a dividend of 9.60p last year, which I would expect them to match this year. That's a dividend yield of approx 10.6% on the current share price.

Based on the business' underlying fundamentals, the current share price is far lower than I think it should be. While the gold price has declined since H1, they have a low cost gold mine and should still be comfortably profitable at current prices. Given the high amount of short selling recently, whenever the share price does stabilise, I expect it to revert back towards it's previous 130-160p range.
I have bought some at 90.28p today.

Wheety · 13-09-2018 9:52am

Ryanair could drop back again as a few European Unions are set to announce 'The biggest strike in Ryanair history' today. I might have been a bit optimistic with my €12.70 on Monday but I'll take a few more if it gets <13 today.

Pussyhands · 13-09-2018 12:20pm

What are peoples thoughts about going for Berkshire stocks as an alternative to an ETF?

It largely tracks the S&P 500 price...

q85dw7osi4lebg · 13-09-2018 12:29pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts about going for Berkshire stocks as an alternative to an ETF?

It largely tracks the S&P 500 price...

My most consistent gains over the past few years. Will have my concerns if and when Buffet kicks the bucket. Safe til then I reckon.

Mickiemcfist · 13-09-2018 12:38pm

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

My most consistent gains over the past few years. Will have my concerns if and when Buffet kicks the bucket. Safe til then I reckon.

Grim as it sounds I'm planning on jumping in a few days after he dies. There'll be a large drop on the news, but the underlying assets + presumably Munger taking the lead would mean it's still worth a lot going forward.

ballyharpat · 13-09-2018 2:59pm

I bought into ITKY.AS at €10.95 this morning, bought it on Monday at €11.20. Currently sitting €11.90 - I think that it has potential for 20% in short term.

I bought AMSSY (AMS.AG) as well, paid $38.50 last week, and now at $33.77, hopefully Aplle is going to be using them for some touch screens. If the do, I see a short term boost of 10% on my initial purchase, and a long term boost of up to 50% after apple release first quarter with the new products.
The new Apple watch is really interesting, I am not into smart watches, I like classics, but with the possibility of an ECG, it interests me. The price of the watch alone would more cover me getting a stress test, because I cant replicate in a regular ECG, when my heartbeat becomes irregular.

fingers crossed my ships come in.

valoren · 13-09-2018 3:34pm

valoren wrote: »

Starbucks and Altria trading at fair value per dividend adjusted peg ratio.

Not fair value anymore.

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/altria-mo-shares-up-close-to-7-on-fdas-latest-notice-cm1022353

q85dw7osi4lebg · 14-09-2018 7:45pm

Amyris down 8% due to plant being located in North Carolina.

Maybe an opportunity to get in.

unkel · 14-09-2018 10:39pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

I bought into Pluristem at 1.25. One to watch. Feels like a similar punt.

Same, looks like I sold at 1.36 a day or two ago. Up 9% in less than two months. I'll take that thanks very much, I ain't greedy

So I have cash. What's next?

Lisland · 15-09-2018 2:03am

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed, Tesla longterm is a huge risk. The Chinese projects are mitigation IMO for my shortterm investment, to an extent, accepting that the share is madly volatile.

NIO showed volatile jumps today and appeared to be good for shorts with quick in and out but it's a huge risk/gamble too?

16-09-2018 9:46am

Lisland wrote: »

NIO showed volatile jumps today and appeared to be good for shorts with quick in and out but it's a huge risk/gamble too?

Have no clue what NIO is TBH

drunkmonkey · 16-09-2018 10:02am

Augeo wrote: »

Have no clue what NIO is TBH

China's launched their own Tesla, huge gains in it the other day, couple that with Trump tarrifs on Tesla in China and no new Tesla being sold in China and they could do a fair bit of damage to Tesla, I'd knock 20% off Tesla valuation just on the fact it exists. Not to mention the competition revving up from every other car manufacturer.
Tesla first mover advantage is starting to go up in smoke, half the price of a Tesla in China https://www.nio.io/es8

q85dw7osi4lebg · 17-09-2018 3:19pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

China's launched their own Tesla, huge gains in it the other day, couple that with Trump tarrifs on Tesla in China and no new Tesla being sold in China and they could do a fair bit of damage to Tesla, I'd knock 20% off Tesla valuation just on the fact it exists. Not to mention the competition revving up from every other car manufacturer.
Tesla first mover advantage is starting to go up in smoke, half the price of a Tesla in China https://www.nio.io/es8

NIO down 10%

Picking up some myself.

Bob Harris · 17-09-2018 3:46pm

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

NIO down 10%

Picking up some myself.

Probably due to Trumps planned tariffs.

Captainsatnav · 17-09-2018 3:48pm

I am losing my boll0cks on DeGiro the last couple of months. Portfolio down 29%

q85dw7osi4lebg · 17-09-2018 3:51pm

Captainsatnav wrote: »

I am losing my boll0cks on DeGiro the last couple of months. Portfolio down 29%

Back the truck up. Stock up on Ryanair, don't get too deep into Verastem, and hang onto HIVE until $5.

I have all three and a few other risky ones but Berkshire Hathaway, Coke (just about to pay dividend), Apple, Microsoft etc help to stomach the losses. Of course they aren't losses until you sell, which I don't.

unkel · 17-09-2018 3:51pm

Every single one of my investments I've had on DeGiro has realised a profit. But I'm down on the only holding I have at the moment, Porsche AG. Not a chance I'll be selling it until it is in the black though

q85dw7osi4lebg · 17-09-2018 3:53pm

unkel wrote: »

Every single one of my investments I've had on DeGiro has realised a profit. But I'm down on the only holding I have at the moment, Porsche AG. Not a chance I'll be selling it until it is in the black though

Bought into Porsche at the recent low so got lucky there myself, looks like the chart has started to turn for the better.

drunkmonkey · 17-09-2018 4:03pm

You must be up you bought in lower than me and I'm up, didn't buy the cheaper ones as transfer bounced back from Degiro.
Steady ride up now over the next 8 weeks or so hopefully.

TG860 · 17-09-2018 4:35pm

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

unkel wrote: »

Every single one of my investments I've had on DeGiro has realised a profit. But I'm down on the only holding I have at the moment, Porsche AG. Not a chance I'll be selling it until it is in the black though

Bought into Porsche at the recent low so got lucky there myself, looks like the chart has started to turn for the better.

Just to make sure, you guys are aware that that isn't an investment in Porsche per-se? It's basically a holding company of Volkswagen shares, plus a few minor technology investments. So the price of the "Porsche" shares is effectively going to mirror the price of Volkswagen shares. (https://www.markuselsaesser.com/en/blog/post/surprise-on-the-stock-market-porsche-is-not-the-same-as-porsche-14174)

17-09-2018 4:43pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

....... I'd knock 20% off Tesla valuation just on the fact it exists. ..............

20% of the Tesla evaluation when it was $400 or the current price? This Chinese crowd have existed for a while like, surely the market is aware of them ?

unkel · 17-09-2018 5:16pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You must be up you bought in lower than me and I'm up

Nah bought at 57.5 ( a little big lower than you) on August 1st (a few days after you)

Happy to hold till I get my 10% or so

drunkmonkey · 17-09-2018 8:43pm

You'd want to aim a little higher, take profit somewhere between €75 and €90. VW and Porsche sales in China are going good. Thank the Donald.

ballyharpat · 17-09-2018 9:20pm

Captainsatnav wrote: »

I am losing my boll0cks on DeGiro the last couple of months. Portfolio down 29%

It happens, the market is in a lot of turmoil at the moment, Ive been holding USO for 2.5 years and making good money on it, but what I am making on the Turkey ETF profit I am losing on the AMS.ag loss, hopefully that one will come back, it hit a 52 week low today

Captainsatnav · 17-09-2018 10:10pm

Wtf happened Verastem today?? Down nearly 8%

Lisland · 17-09-2018 11:59pm

Captainsatnav wrote: »

Wtf happened Verastem today?? Down nearly 8%

I don't have shares in VSTM but have followed a bit. They are pending FDA approval (Oct 5th) for phase III (DUO). Getting to this point has moved the SP up from 4's; lack of confidence will bring buyers out close to the approval date. Also, if approval comes there will be spike but dip too because lack of confidence in post phase III for bio with op cost. It's a gamble with bio firms like this at the moment but I could profiteer from pulling a % of shares now whilst being able to account for some to pull if approval comes and then some for the long, they can be very profitable whilst still hedging.

Bob Harris · 18-09-2018 7:17am

Captainsatnav wrote: »

Wtf happened Verastem today?? Down nearly 8%

Often enough with big news pending the SP goes down before it is announced. It's probably some investors getting a little nervous that the announcement won't be positive and banking profits and MM's doing a bit of market manipulation and getting their hands on cheaper shares for bigger profits.
Look at Madrigal Pharma - in May it went from $130 to $108 in the days leading up to it's NASH announcement and when it hit went to over $300.

Share Picks 2018

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