100 Bets Flat Peak Season

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Ripon 3:45

Midnight Martini: forgiving her last run she had two runs before that that were showing a step back to form.. She is down 3 lbs for her last run and in this lower class race a return to her previous runs will give her a great chance here and she looks overpriced at 16/1 with paddy power. Let's hope the race stays with 16 runners ..

2 points EW 16/1 paddy power..[/

Backed into 12/1 and finished 3rd had every chance 1 f out , a good run.. + 6 points

longshotvalue

Fox Las 8:15

Above Limits: as much as Star Rover is one of my favourite horses and id like to see him win this, he just hasnt a great win record and i much prefer to have him a big prices against better oposition to place. This is an odd race where it is difficult to see any of them winning, and given that im going to go with one of the outsiders Above Limits. He was very decent last year with a few listed places, but has been poor both times this year, albeit showing some early pace and fading. He has had a decent break hopefully to sort him out and he has a bit more potential for improvement that the rest of these. 8/1 looks a decent price.

1 Point Win 8/1 Various

longshotvalue

Ive done the Sums, and from Fridays 109.6 we are up to +117.6 Points for this tread so far, after some decent consistant placers in the last few days.

Ill be doing a full spreadsheet in the next day or so, as this must be near 100 bets at this stage, and ill give a full BSP and Advised & ROI Totals Then.

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Fox Las 8:15

Above Limits: as much as Star Rover is one of my favourite horses and id like to see him win this, he just hasnt a great win record and i much prefer to have him a big prices against better oposition to place. This is an odd race where it is difficult to see any of them winning, and given that im going to go with one of the outsiders Above Limits. He was very decent last year with a few listed places, but has been poor both times this year, albeit showing some early pace and fading. He has had a decent break hopefully to sort him out and he has a bit more potential for improvement that the rest of these. 8/1 looks a decent price.

1 Point Win 8/1 Various

Ran well and looked the most likely winner a lot of the way, but was out grinded by Star Rover.. Finished 2nd, and should do something soon of that mark.

longshotvalue

Brighton 3:30

yuritini, has been very consistant lately and a fair few of these has questions to answer in term of trip and mark. 12/1 EW with Ladbroeks look at least 3 point to big and its worth a small EW Bet. She has adecent draw and is down a pound form her last decent run.

1 Point EW 12/1 Ladbrokes

longshotvalue

Tipp 6:15

This looks a great race for a Sprint in this country. Looking for value Sole Power clearly is the best horse in the race but is being wound up for a repeat nunthorp win later and may not be 100% (altough he wouldnt need to be) Group Therapy looks a bit short but has been running to his mark the last few runs possibly in better races than this. Inexile has been picking up easier races than this over here and looks a bit short of speed for this. There is a gap then to Invincable Ash who does looks better Value at 8.8 on betfair, and her second last run in the Curragh is clearly decent enough. She has a great record over 5f and won this race last year along with another race at tipp, giving her a 100% course record. I would think that Invincable Ash is overpriced and ill go for that, but there is nothing in it..

2 Points win Betfair 8.8 Invincable Ash

longshotvalue

Tipp 5:45

Blue Dahlia: Came back to form last time and alotuhg has top weight here a 7lbs claimer is booked than might just bring her into this race with a decent chance. 95 probably is around right and 18.5 on betfair certainly look too big on her last run when 4th in a listed race.

1 Point win Betfair 18.5

longshotvalue

Newmarket 2:40

Imperial Guest: This race is a step back in class after some good runs in top handicaps at Ascot. Before the last run the trainer seemed to think he was ready to win and he ran ok. Looking at the field i dont see anything with better form really and he looks the most likely winner and fav in my book. he is 11/1 with Willhill & Betfair, and that looks value as i have him more of a 7/1 Shot in this race. He is drawn near teh middle which is probably fine and goes on all sorts of ground.

2 Points Win 11/1 WillHill Betfair.

longshotvalue

Redcar 2:55

All Muheer: He came back to form last time, (well somewhat anyway), when he won what is admitadly a weaker race than this, but it was his run before than at Ascot, that gives me a glimmer of hope that he might start paying of a bit of support. He ran well without getting the clearest of runs, but appeared to be trying which he didnt look like until then. Altough he meets a couple of horses with similiar profiles to himself now, that are on much lower mark than the past, i didnt think he would be available at 6.0 for this race as he is now so it looks a bit of value, and im hoping he repays faith today (i was at a wedding last week and didnt even know he ran.. ggggrrrrrrrrrr)

3 Points Win 6.0 Betfair

longshotvalue

Haydock 2:45

Elusive Pimpernel: Former top 2yo, who hasnt been that great this year, but this is a bit of a poor enough race, where there doesnt look to be much between most of the field and that makes it a time to go for and outsider or 2. His odds of returning to form are shorter than 14/1 and really only his last run was poor enough to merit that big a price. Im also tempted to go for a point on Fallen Idol, he had no luck at all last time out, and is less exposed than most of this field and open to improvement.

1 Point win Elusive Pimpernel 14/1 various
1 Point win Fallen Idol 11/1 various

longshotvalue

Ascot 2:00

Mister Manannan: Formally very good 2yo who had a decent few races in Mayden of higher than this mark. That often leaves its mark and hes had 2 poor races since, altough showing a bit of early pace each time. He has Cheekpieces on first time today and hopefully it gets his mind on the job. He still has plenty of potential.

1 Point Ew 20/1 Various

longshotvalue

Weekly Report

yuritini: ran ok for 5th, but probably ran down the wrong side depite the winner coming from there -2
Invincable Ash : Rana great race to be just touched off for 3rd making a joke of his huge drift on betfair .. -2
Blue Dahlia: Again ran well enough to be just out of the places and migh be able to do something in a handicap of a bit lower. -1



Previous Total 116.6 Above -5 +111.6 Points

Today is the last day of this tread id say.. ill do detailed totals later..

longshotvalue

Haddock 2:15

Mirrored is beginning to look well treated in this .. Last run was eye-catching enough when not getting room near the end and is 2 lbs lower here.

14/1 look a bit of value..

2 points EW 14/1 various

longshotvalue

Ascot 2:30

Pivotman: had an eye-catching run last time, and the softer ground here should help. He is now out to 7/1 which looks good value.. Very good maiden winner as a 2 you and very lightly raced with a bit of potential..

2 points win 7/1

longshotvalue

Report

Imperial Guest Ran a good race down the wrong side and finished well in 5th. One for the next time i think. -2
All Muheer: Less said about that performance the better. Completely weakened in the end -3 Points
Elusive Pimpernel: Rana great race to be second at a decent price (but i had win only) still hes on the way back -1
Fallen Idol : Ran on well enough for 4th, but looked outpaced at this trip. -1
Mister Manannan: Just not running well at the moment and weakened badly in the finish after being up there fromthe start -2
Mirrored : Ran on well to finish 5th, after looking like a certain placer for while just out of the places . -4
Pivotman Was struggling a good bit out and neve look likely -2

-15 Points a bad day . Previous total +111.6 End of Tread Total +96.6 Points

That ends this tread and id have to be happy with a profit of 96.6 Points from just over 100 bets. On looking back at it im far more profitable during festivals when there is decent racing on and im going to stick more rigidly to that from now on.

Running total of all these treads Up to the last tread 6, The running total Advised profit was 243.73 + 96.9 . Overall Advised total now +340.63 Points which is as good as could be expected over about 700 bets and the ROI is better than 20%.

I cant find links to the original 2 treads.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055960844
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056055990
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056169963
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056228630
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056294493

L'prof

aidankkk wrote: »

I cant find links to the original 2 treads.

First
Second
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055960844
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056055990
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056169963
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056228630
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056294493

There ya go.