100 Bets to Broke, NH :-) and last of the flat

longshotvalue · 09-10-2010 9:44am #1

100 Bets to Broke, NH :-) and last of the flat

1- 15:40 Ascot, 1m 4f ladbrokes.com Stakes
Icon Dream: This one really looks likely to have lot in his favor tomorrow at a decent price. All his best runs have been on soft going, winning his maiden on heavy and second in the Chester Vase on good-soft. He gets a 6lb 3yo allowance and this puts him in here on a decent racing weight of 9:0 with a rating of 101. He is visored tomorrow with a tongue -tie and it's his first run in a handicap - all of which adds up to a decent chance of tomorrow being a going day. He is currently overpriced 20/1

2 points EW

2- 15:55 York, 6f Coral Sprint Trophy
Able Master: He was my selection for the Ayr Silver Cup a few weeks ago and ran really well when short of room to finish 8th. His C&D win here off the same mark as today (also at the end of the season) on similar ground puts him in here with a great chance. He is drawn low in 5 and this looks to be the right side to be on. Considering he has run well this year off 10lbs higher also on ground with some give in it, he looks to have a lot in his favor tomorrow. Currently 14/1 Stan James
2 points EW

3- 14:15 York, 1m coral.co.uk Handicap
Bonnie Charlie: I'm going to give him a small chance at a very decent price; he has a decent record at the end of the year in the last 2 years and most of his best runs have been on ground with some cut in it. He has come down 14lbs from his peak last year, and if he gets the extra furlong which has looked likely in one or two of his previous races, he is capable of placing in this type of race of this mark. Currently 42 win 8.6 place

1 point win, 1 point place

4- 17:10 Chepstow, 3m Rhys Howells Memorial Handicap Chase
Ellerslie George: Altough his last run was poor, today he has the right conditions and trip and looks overpriced at 20/1 to come back to form today. he had some support last day which might indicate some kind of home form. His record at this time of the year is very good.. with a few wins in october..

1 Point EW 20/1

5- 15:05 Ascot,6f Models 1 Bengough Stakes
Genki: In the form of his life and conditions to suit today, he has a decent weight advantage with Redford from their last run and really there is nothing between them and he is double the price.

3 Points Win 6/1 Stan James

thesandeman · 09-10-2010 7:59pm

Close one with Genki. Best o luck with the jumps. Lets hope you continue where you left off.

longshotvalue · 10-10-2010 10:14am

Bad day yesterday,

Summerinthecity : Not my style going for favs but this ones last run was a long way ahead of anything else in this race and he has gone up only 4lbs (he was 1 over last time), he beat some very good consistant horses last time who have franked the form. He is drawn 13 of 13 which is perfect and looks overpriced at 9/2. He also is proven on soft going..

3 Points Win 9/2

longshotvalue · 10-10-2010 10:39am

Munster National, Fisher Bridge He looks overpriced considering his good form at this time of the year, couple of decent flat run this year, and will be fit. The Good ground should suit, but its his first try at 3m, worth a shot at a big price, and being the stable second string might not rule him out here, as Meade i ususally in great for at this time of the year..

1 Point Each Way 28/1 Ladbrokes

longshotvalue · 10-10-2010 4:49pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Munster National, Fisher Bridge He looks overpriced considering his good form at this time of the year, couple of decent flat run this year, and will be fit. The Good ground should suit, but its his first try at 3m, worth a shot at a big price, and being the stable second string might not rule him out here, as Meade i ususally in great for at this time of the year..

1 Point Each Way 28/1 Ladbrokes

:(:(nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Jeez i was counting the money... ahh well.. the winner stayed on really well

thesandeman · 10-10-2010 4:52pm

Ouch!!

longshotvalue · 15-10-2010 12:58am

Newmarket 5:15, Gallagher, he is racing of his lowest ever mark. the run when a very good 6th off 6 lbs higher at ascot, look good on his current mark, and all his runs since have been on softer going. He has the best draw of all wide in 30 and also has a claimer on for the first time since that good run.. Its s lot of tick marks for one horse in this type of race so he looks valye at 33/1 EW and could be bigger tomorrow.

1 Point Each Way 33/1

longshotvalue · 16-10-2010 9:06am

[FONT=&quot]15:40 Newmarket, 2m 2f totesport.com Cesarewitch[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Swingkeel: [/FONT][FONT=&quot] I like the look of his run at Ascot in the Queen Alexandra, where he was gaining all the way to the line when 3rd and well supported. He had previously run well in the Chester Cup and looks to have been laid out for this with a break and a run in a 14f Conditions Event where he ran above his mark over a distance too short. He was well supported in this last year and although he ran poorly he clearly is highly tough of by connections, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see support for him tomorrow.
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]1 Point Each Way 33/1 12345 Bet365
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Kayf Aramis: [/FONT][FONT=&quot]If he can show any of the improvement on the flat that he showed over hurdles in the last 18 months, he will have a great chance here. Ran well of 2lbs higher at Ascot in June 09 and has had only one Flat race since, which was hopefully a warm up for this race over the C&D a month ago. He looks sure to improve for that run and may well be well treated of this mark, considering his improvement over hurdles.
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]1 Point Each Way 28/1 12345 Bet265
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]14:40 Cheltenham, 2m 4f 110y zeturf.com Handicap Chase[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Gwanako:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] This race looks the ideal combination of Trip and Ground for him. He has gone down a few pounds and has a 5lbs claimer on board which will give him decent racing weight. He was well supported in a similar race over C&D last year and a mistake gave him no chance. He is Currently 12/1 but could easily be bigger tomorrow considering Ruby is on another Nichols horse.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]1 Point Each Way
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]15:00 Newmarket, 1m 2f Emirates Airline Champion Stakes[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Sri Putra:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] He just looks overpriced to place particularly, I’m not sure his Eclipse 2nd was that much of a fluke, he has a number of good runs this year. This looks a very poor Group 1 and he has a decent chance of getting into it after having a decent break which may help[/FONT]
1 Point Each Way 33/1 Stan James

[FONT=&quot]Ante Post Champion Hurdle 2011[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Barizan[/FONT][FONT=&quot]: I was really impressed with this horse at the end of last year after a hard season. He looks well overpriced for the Champion Hurdle and reminds me of Katchit, in that he is super tough and has top notch course form. He may or may not win tomorrow but im sure that in the Spring next year he will be hard to pass coming up the hill next year. Currently 48 win 10 place and looks worth a small investment at those odds in case of an easy success tomorrow.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]1 Point Win 1 Point Place[/FONT]

Nulty · 16-10-2010 10:16am

What price did you take on Barizan?

Wait...I see it now

longshotvalue · 16-10-2010 10:34am

Nulty wrote: »

What price did you take on Barizan?

Wait...I see it now

I also had him as my last bet in the first of my 100 bets at 50/1 EW at then end of last year...

longshotvalue · 16-10-2010 10:35am

Star Rover Catterick 3:25. Well overpriced at 25/1 EW of this mark to get placed at least, has been running well this year and no superstars in this race, more like a 12/1 Shot..

2 Points Eachs Way 25/1

Nulty · 16-10-2010 10:42am

aidankkk wrote: »

I also had him as my last bet in the first of my 100 bets at 50/1 EW at then end of last year...

I remember that. I'm excited by him too, it always helps when you've backed him before. Plenty of people ought to be excited from that Cheltenham run but it looks stiff with the weight he carries today.

All the best

longshotvalue · 18-10-2010 3:20pm

Ponte 3:40 , Strike Up The Band: more gut feeling than anything here, but todays 5f on good ground might suit him, and he has a turn around in weights with tha fav, which might just bring them together, he looks overpriced

2 Point Win 8/1

longshotvalue · 20-10-2010 2:42pm

Bit late notice, but i like AOB in these late season nurseries, and Flavia Tatiana , look sure to like the steps up in trip and get in here on a decent mark. looks overpriced at 11.5 on betfair. second last run was decent and looked to be staying on over 6f. JM not on has pushed up price, he is on one for Watchman, but that has a decent bit of weight.

2 Points Win 11.5 Betfair

2:45 Nav

longshotvalue · 20-10-2010 2:52pm

on a shocking run of luck.. That one had loads in hand, but broke badly and couldnt get out... really flying at the end.. 3rd..

Ahh well..

longshotvalue · 23-10-2010 9:40am

3:55 Doncaster, 5f 40% Better Off On Betfair SP Handicap Secret Asset has been running well off around this mark or higher all season, and his last run looked better than the 8th place finish suggested. He is fine on good-soft or softer going and seems equally good at 5f or 6f. He is down 2lbs today and has the claimer who rode him in most of his decent runs this year. The draw isn't ideal near the middle in 9 but he can go to either side from here and looks to have a reasonable chance.

2 Points Each Way 33/1 SkyBet 12345

3:10 Newbury, 7f E.B.F. Bathwick Tyres Fillies' Handicap
Bintalwaddi had a couple of very decent runs earlier this year and didn't look to stay 1m in his last run, leading until running out of petrol. The step back to 7f will surely suit, along with good-soft going. He looks overpriced at 22 to win and 4.9 to place.

2pt win, 2pt place

16:35 Aintree, 3m 1f Totetentofollow.co.uk Veterans' Handicap Chase
Royal Rosa had a few very decent runs last year, and is a proven stayer who is often good on his first run. His run in the Becher last year on his reappearance was very good and he looks to be underestimated. Any extra rain will help and he has an excellent chance of running into a place on the long run-in here. Currently 16 to win 4.6 place.

1pts win, 2pts place

3:25 Aintree, Old Roan Chase

Albertas Run, has a really top notch record first time out, and i cant understand how hes not much shorter here, his last 2 runs last year were a revelation and the C&D win at the end of last year was one of the best chases id seen for years. Id put him at 7/4 Fav here on known form, i cant resist that price he's 5.8 on Betfair. He wasnt really supported last year first time out but still obliged..

4 Points Win 5.8 Betfair

longshotvalue · 23-10-2010 3:44pm

On an epic bad run, but ive got to give chief yeoman a small change at 60/12 on betfair for Chep 4:10. He has ran well of this mark in teh past and has a few times come back from a poor run to improve plenty. Just looks a nice price

1 Point win 1 Point Place

almat1981 · 27-10-2010 9:11am

Aidan your still by far the best man on here for a long shot.
Came across these two and was wondering what your toughts were.

4.15 Nottingham lastkingofscotland 25/1

3:25 haddock three ships 25/1

Any toughts?

longshotvalue · 30-10-2010 1:37pm

No internet today so have to use phone..

King Edmund, ascot 4:50 8.0 betfair very good last year overpriced.. *3 pts win

Massinis maguire , ascot 3.40. Looks ovrpriced and reasonably treated 2 pts win 8.2

Blazing baily, weth 2:50 , might be a tight enough race and he look the most value at 17.5 betfair. 2 pts win

Nacarat, weth 3:25 looks a few pounds clear of these and should be fav, stable reasonably confident .. *6.4 betfair 3 pts win..*

thesandeman · 30-10-2010 3:51pm

NICE!! Looks like youve found form again B-)

longshotvalue · 31-10-2010 12:58pm

O'muiarcheartic cork national.. Of a low weight which will count today and may stay on into a place .

1 point ew 25/1

longshotvalue · 02-11-2010 3:10pm

Exeter 2:35.. Really class race for midweek, and having gone trough them all for me it comes down to wheather Somersby is ready to go, he look a bit clear of these at the weights, but he is not value at 2/1. For me Imsingingtheblues looks very good value at 11/1 EW, he was going really well last week in the Old Roan Chase, and looks the best combination of Mark and price.

2 pts Each way

longshotvalue · 06-11-2010 10:12am

Wincanton 2:10 Totescoop6 Elite Hurdle
Barizan: I was very impressed with his season last year, and he is going to be difficult to pass here with what looks a decent mark. His jumping would need to improve from his seasonal debut in Cheltenham but given that improvement he should be in with a great chance. If he is to be a contender in decent races later on this year he will have to run well here of this mark. Currently 11 win, 3.5 place.
2pts win 3 pts place

Doncaster 2:00 Bet On Live Football At totesport.com Handicap
Kyllachy Star: He has been very consistent this year and although he has been creeping up the weights, he looks overpriced here considering his good run in the Challenge Cup at Ascot where he was 2nd on the wrong side, and seemed to finish his race well. He is off the same mark here and appears to have a decent draw in 4. Currently 28.0 win, 6.2 place.
1pt win, 2pts place

Wincanton 3:20 Badger Ales Trophy
Irish Raptor: Looks off a decent mark, and seemed to be going well on reappearance until making a mistake 4 from home. He is of a decent raceable weight here and should come on for his first run. Looks overpriced at 20.0 win, 5.2 place.
1pt win, 1pt place

Doncaster 3:10 totesport.com November Handicap
Brunston: Back to a mark where he can get involved, he should like the ground and although he seems unproven at the trip, looks overpriced. His last run of this mark was good and has won a big field handicap this year although over a shorter trip. Currently 50 win 10 place.
1pt win, 1pt place

longshotvalue · 06-11-2010 10:23am

3:40 Doncaster Bet On Breeders Cup At totesport.com Wentworth Stakes

Doncaster Rover: looks the best horse in the race, should act on the ground and looks overpriced at 12/1

2 points win..

longshotvalue · 13-11-2010 12:26am

Cheltenham 1:20 Ultima Frontrunner in IT Solutions Novices' Chase
Beshabar: He looks overpriced probably because he's left Nicholls and had one poor run over fences in really heavy ground last year but his hurdles form at the end of last year was very good on better ground. I would rate him around a 5.5 shot and he's currently 11. He has to prove he stays 3m but the ground should help.
2pts win
Cheltenham 1:55 Morson Group Handicap Chase
Zacharova: His run at the end of last year was a bit of a return to form after a very poor year, but he is now back down to near the mark he won over C&D 18 months ago on similar ground. Although that race was not as good as this one, if he can recapture that form he can stay on here with a chance at a big price. Currently 40.0 to win and 7.4 place.
1pt win, 1pt place
Cheltenham 2:35 Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase
Gwanako: Looks to be well overpriced for a horse that is down to a more reasonable mark, and was running well when falling in his first run this year over the C&D. He has many good runs at Cheltenham, and looks to be in with a great chance at the weights. 33/1 Ew Paddy Power 5 places.
2pts each way
Cheltenham 3:10 Jardine Lloyd Thompson Handicap Hurdle
Pistolet Noir: His run at Aintree in a good race at the end of last year made me think the step up in trip might suit, and he also liked the good ground which it won't be too far off tomorrow. Although he's gone up a few pounds for that, the 5lbs claimer on tomorrow negates that rise, and he looks overpriced on that form. His first run this year was poor enough but he was well supported which may indicate some expectation. Currently 13.5 to win.
2pts win

longshotvalue · 13-11-2010 9:18am

Cheltenham 2:35 Paddy Power Gold Cup.. I just cant let AP Heskin have a ride on a decent horse in a good race go of at 50.0 on betfair without having a bet. Dancing tornado , had a very decent run lately over hurdles and he just has the profile of one that is layed out for this , of a decent mark. The 5lbs claim puts him in here under 10st. His novice chase win at limerick last year was good over this trip. It is possible he would like more cut in the ground but its easily worth the risk at his current odds.. Currently 50 win 8.2 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 13-11-2010 2:16pm

Cheltenham 1:55 Morson Group Handicap Chase

Just look at this race again, and Ballyfitz does look a bit of a blot on the handicap, he looks to ahve come down a bit too much, has an excellent record first time out and very good course form. His 4th on reaperance last year in the paddy power of 8 lbs more would easily be enough here.

2 Points win 12/1 Paddy Power

longshotvalue · 14-11-2010 10:54am

On and epic Bad run, and probably picking to many very big prices, but anyway going for an even bigger one here

Culcabock, Greatwood Hurdle Cheltenham. This one has had very little racing last 2 years but ran an ok race on reapearance, and has gone in at a big price in the past. the Jockey Booking is interesting as he seems a decent claimer who is used sparingly, and has a very very good record of near 40% placing and 26% wins.. He has C&D win to his name and is getting 2 stone of the main protaganonists in this race. He is down 5 lbs from his last win in a decent race at ascot, and he just looks too big at 85 win 11 place

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

Hoback Junction, Paddy Power Intermediate Hurdle Chelt, cant let a half decent horse go of in a race at 170/1 on betfair, he is sure to stay and just isnt a 170/1 chance. Had a couply of decent enough novice wins last year, and altough he ran poorly over fences this year, his run back over hurdles want that bad and possibly came up against a very good novice..

1 Point win 1 Point Place

Politeo , same race, he has looked like the step up in trip will suite his last 2 runs in ireland and may be able to stay on past a lot of these up the hill. and is overpriced on betfair at 40w/6p

2 Point win 2 Point Place

proon4 · 14-11-2010 11:45am

Mod edit : Wrong place

mike65 · 15-11-2010 12:23pm

You Sir have just gatecrashed someone elses thread.

longshotvalue · 16-11-2010 5:32pm

Bad record antipost but it impossible to resist..

Hennessy Gold Cup

Madison Du Berlais, is back down to near the mark he won the hennessy of before. Last year he was poor enough but still what he done might be enough here, he has no weight, is going to be one of the few in the handicap and has beaten denman before twice. Of the others in the field there is a lot of unproven horses around the same mark, and he is still a 9yo so may still have some improvement in him.. He has an excellent record in the race having won it and placed, and really should be place here at least.. There are some positive noises from the stable..

3 pts Each Way 16/1

100 Bets to Broke, NH :-) and last of the flat

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