100 Bets Flat Peak Season

longshotvalue · 10-06-2011 12:45pm #1

Going to start again, and hopefully do better with this tread.

Rules this time

No Big Dog Racing
Less Place Bets
Less picks
Report on every runner
Keep profit up to date on each run

longshotvalue · 10-06-2011 12:46pm

Bet 1

York 4:25

Duchess Dora. The more i look at this race the more sure i am that she should be fav here. She has been steadily getting better this year and her run over c&d earlier this year in what looks a much tougher race, should really put her in with a big shout here. She is drawn low and that looks the place to be as most of the fancied horses are drawn low. She has a claimer back on today and has only ever won with a claimer on board. 11 on betfair or 9/1 with boyles looks too big, i reckon she is more of a 9/2-5/1 shot

2 Points Win 11.0 Betfair

longshotvalue · 10-06-2011 1:03pm

Bet 2

York 3:15

Grand Caiman: He has been a consistant enough horse on the AW in sellers/claimers lately, but has come down a huge chunk in ratings. He is here of 73 which looks about fair for his last few runs. He has a decent claimer on and should the return to turn spark anything at all he would have a small chance. His price on betfair of 70 win 11 place looks a bit too big, and he may be more of a 33/1 shot.

.5 point win .5 point place Betfair

thesandeman · 10-06-2011 1:39pm

Best of luck Aidan.

longshotvalue · 10-06-2011 2:21pm

Bet 3

4:35 Sandown

Layline: Improver on the AW lately with a rating of 91 and running up to that. Outclassed last time in a group 3 , but has run well in the past on turf and in here with a mark of 86, which does look to give him a reasonable chance if he can produce on turf here. I would put her at arounf 16-20/1 and the 33/1 available from StanJames looks a bit generous.

1 Point Each way 33/1 Stan James

longshotvalue · 11-06-2011 9:43am

Duchess Dora looks a bit short of pace at the moment ill wait until she goes off at a big price maybe after a break. She had every chance but just couldnt pickup.

Layline, ran well enough and may be worth another bet, got run out of it in the end after leading for most of the way. He may be able to win of that mark on turf.
Less said about grand caiman the better, last by a mile.

-5 points yesterday.

longshotvalue · 11-06-2011 10:03am

Bet 4

York 3:15

Majestic Dubawi: A very good juvanile winning a good G3 at Ayr. Was poor first time out this year, but did run well enough until not staying in the irish 1000. The step back in trip to 6 furlongs might do the trick here and she could get involved here at a huge price for a filly of her class at 2. Currently 60 win 9.6 place on betfair

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 11-06-2011 2:39pm

Bet 5

Sandown 2:55

Namecheck: probably the most unexposed in the field, and had plenty of promise at 2, particulary in a very good listed race. He has had a run this year which he ran ok but ran out of steam and looks certain to come on for that. The stable is in good form and often trows up a winner with a similiar profile. He looks a bit overpriced at 20/1 to improve or get back to 2yo form, with a tep back in trip to 7f.

1 Point each way 20/1

longshotvalue · 12-06-2011 10:29am

Majestic Dubawi, ran a great race for a 60/1 shot, and looked to have a great chance of placing until getting no room at all near the finish. Looked under pressure early but really responded, looks as if she can really win a nice 7 furlong event shortly.

Namecheck was backed into 12/1 and ran well in 5th, stayed on towards the finish and considering how little action he has seen could eassily improve for that run..

longshotvalue · 12-06-2011 11:13am

Doncaster 3:25

Able Master: Generally off form last season, but one very good run in the Ayr gold cup where he finished really well, he looks on a very good mark and should be worth a small win bet here on his late seasonal appearance. I wouldnt be surprised if he was being aimed at the Ayr gold cup again this year but of this mark he worth a small bet at a huge price.

1 Point EW 33/1 William Hill

Star Rover: Was very well supported last time but ran poorly enough, but his last run over c&d when 2nd with 1 lbs higher reads well for this race, he is capable of getting into a place here enough times to warrent an EW bet at big odds

1 Point EW 40/1 Boyle Sports

longshotvalue · 12-06-2011 3:33pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Doncaster 3:25

Star Rover: Was very well supported last time but ran poorly enough, but his last run over c&d when 2nd with 1 lbs higher reads well for this race, he is capable of getting into a place here enough times to warrent an EW bet at big odds

1 Point EW 40/1 Boyle Sports

4th

Jeez i tought he was going to win still decent run at a nice price..

longshotvalue · 12-06-2011 3:45pm

-4 yesterday running total -9

today 40/1 with boyles has 15% reduction which is 34/1, 9.5 points back including stake.

+6.5 Points today - running total -3.5

longshotvalue · 13-06-2011 12:07pm

Bet 8

St James's Palace Stakes

Zoffany: One time main hopes for ballydoyle as a 2yo, and again seems to be overpriced here given the almost certain massive improvement from his ok first run of the season. Could easily be the 2nd best in this race and with NRNB its worth a try at 25/1 with ladbrokes.

1 Point EW Ladbroesk NRNB 25/1

longshotvalue · 13-06-2011 9:11pm

Bet 9 / 10

Kings Stand

Sole Power: Not a lot of explanation here required, he has the best 5 furlong form in the race and really should be fav here on his run in the temple last time out. He is being underestimated, his beating of SSB last year is better form than anything else in the race. The softer going is reducing the size of my bet as it could be a negative.

2 Points win 8/1 Various

Monsieur Chevalier: on looking trough the field there is a lot that can be ruled out, but i liked the look of his last run considering it was his first since he was 2. He looks a bit overpriced at 25/1 and its more of a gut feeling selection than anything else. He did run a very good race in the Prix Abbay as a 2yo and any improvement will put him in with a shout here.

1 Point each way 25/1

Worth going for the 4 places here as a few are offering it . I went with boyles 4 place ew..

longshotvalue · 13-06-2011 11:17pm

Bet 11

Ascot 5:00

Desert Sea: He ran a few very good races last year of slightly higher mark, including a 6th in the Chester Cup 3rd in the northumberland plate and 6 again in the Ebor. He has a good record fresh and looks about 3/1 to be to place considering he looks a stout stayer, making the 6.8 available currently on betfair look a bit of value. Id prefer if i could get on at 5 places but there doesnt seem to be any available.

1 Point win 1 Point Place Betfair 50 win 6.8 place

longshotvalue · 14-06-2011 3:22pm

Golden Jubilee Stakes Ascot Sat

Monsieur Chevalier : Good run there when left with far too much to do , the extra furlong will surly help, and 50/1 will not last.

2 Points Each Way 50/1 William Hill/ otesport

longshotvalue · 14-06-2011 3:29pm

Originally Posted by aidankk

Bet 8

St James's Palace Stakes

Zoffany: One time main hopes for ballydoyle as a 2yo, and again seems to be overpriced here given the almost certain massive improvement from his ok first run of the season. Could easily be the 2nd best in this race and with NRNB its worth a try at 25/1 with ladbrokes.

1 Point EW Ladbroesk NRNB 25/1

Going for an extra point in the without Frankel market on betfair he is 12/1

1 Points win 12.0 betfair w/o FAV

longshotvalue · 14-06-2011 3:43pm

Prince Of Wales's Stakes Tomorrow Ascot

Jan Vermeer 40/1 nrnb. This is a huge price for a consistant top class horse that could easily have improved this year. Its possible he wont be running here but with nrnb its way to big a price with ladbrokes. as a 2yo he looked a class act and altough he didnt exactly set fire last year he still was placed in 2 derbys.

1 Points Each Way 40/1 Ladbrokes

longshotvalue · 14-06-2011 3:52pm

Originally Posted by aidankk

Bet 8

St James's Palace Stakes

Zoffany: One time main hopes for ballydoyle as a 2yo, and again seems to be overpriced here given the almost certain massive improvement from his ok first run of the season. Could easily be the 2nd best in this race and with NRNB its worth a try at 25/1 with ladbrokes.

1 Point EW Ladbroesk NRNB 25/1

Going for an extra point in the without Frankel market on betfair he is 12/1

1 Points win 12.0 betfair w/o FAV

Your Beauty, almost got there in the end

longshotvalue · 14-06-2011 4:16pm

AScot 4:25

Late one But i like the looks of Campanology, J Murtaghs mount for hannon in the next, he was very green in his firstrun and looks sure to improve. He looks a bit overpriced at 60 win 14.5 place on betfair

.5 Point win .5 point Place Betfair

longshotvalue · 14-06-2011 8:39pm

Jersey Stakes 2:30 Ascot

Strong Suit: Very good last year but a very poor run first time out this year. He looks overpriced to get back to form here at 14/1 With Stanjames. He is the highest rated in the field and it just too big a price, i dont think it would be a 14/1 surprise for him to win this.

2 Points win 14/1 Stan James

longshotvalue · 14-06-2011 8:45pm

Windsor Forest Stakes 3:05 Ascot

Music Show: She looks to have the best form in the race, even her form this year looks good in thecontext of this race, her 4th behind 3 very good horses in the bet365 mile, if reproduced could easily be good enough. the extra 2 furlongs last time didnt suit and back to her right trip here she look overpriced at 9.8 on betfair

2 Points Win 9.8 Betfair

longshotvalue · 14-06-2011 8:56pm

Royal Hunt Cup 4:25 Ascot

Brae Hill: Has been very consistant this year in similiar races to this apart from last run around chester. In particular his running on at then end in the Victoria Cup under this claimer looks very good considering he is down a pound from that run. He also was second in the lincoln this year on softer ground and looks to have a very strong chance of placing at least here. He is currently 33/1 With Paddy power paying 5 places and this looks too big by a good few points.

1 Point Each Way 33/1 12345 Paddy Power

longshotvalue · 14-06-2011 9:00pm

Queen Mary Stakes 5:00

Somasach: This is a case of going with J Bolgers record when he sends one over. I cant let the current price on betfair of 17.5 go without having a small bet. He simply doesnt send them over without a chance and this looks value. She did win a poor enough maiden but she has to be showing up at home to be sent here, particulary in his own colours.

1 Point win 17.5 Betfair

longshotvalue · 14-06-2011 9:17pm

Todays Report

Zoffany 1 point EW at 25/1 and 1 point w/o Frankel at 12 on ebetfair . He ran a superb race and just failed to haul in frankel who was given a really stupid ride.
Monsieur Chevalier : 1pt EW, he was in last place for most of the race but picked up eyecatchingly past a lot of horses at the end and he looks to have a great chance in the Golden Jub on Saturday, ive bet him at 50/1 EW but he is available at 66/1 now with pp.
Sole Power. 2pts win, he ran well but really looks to need good-firm as he didnt stay in the end
Desert Sea: 1 pt EW Ran well up to a point and didnt stay at all, he may be on the downgrade and i might leave him alone for a while
Campanology: .5 point EW, never really in the race and finished midfield.

16pts profit on Zoffany - 7 pts on others +9 points for the day

Previous running total -3.5 +9 Current +5.5 points

longshotvalue · 15-06-2011 11:52am

4:25 Ascot

Stunning View. Looks a bit overpriced considering his trainers form when he sends one over. He also has one piece of interesting form when he was second is a listed race in leop, that coukd indicate that his mark of 99 might not be out of his reach.

1 Point EW 33/1 paying 12345 various

longshotvalue · 15-06-2011 4:37pm

5:00 Ascot

Ebony Clarets : looks too big for a once raced impressive winner that could be good enough. Decent stable and joock, and in this type of race she might be a bit of value.

1 Point win Betfiar 80

longshotvalue · 16-06-2011 9:16am

Jan Vermeer : Done way too much early on to have any hope here, but hopefully will do something soon maybe at a decent price.
Strong Suit: Back to form and won well. nice price as well
Music Show: Dissapointing enough run, i was reasonalby econfident, but she got badly hampered in last furlong and was a possibility of place, but looks to be not good enough.
Brae Hill: Ran down the center of the track on his own and had no chance really, ill be following himin another of thses races, hopefully with a better draw.
Somasach: Missed the break and never got into the race at all
Stunning View: Ran well enough but didnt quite get to the leaders.
Ebony Clarets : Shot in the dark didnt pay off, not good enough.

+ 16 points on the day bringing the total to +21.5 in total for the tread.

longshotvalue · 16-06-2011 10:17am

4:35 Ascot

Reflect: He was beaten by Brown Panther last time out by 1.5 lengths, and is now 6 lbs better off. The price diferance here is just too much to ignore. Reflect is 40 win 8 place on betfair and Brown Panther is 6.4 Fav. Obviously the fav possibly has more scope for improvement, but reflect is still value at that price.

1 Point win 1 Point Place Betfair 40/8

longshotvalue · 16-06-2011 11:44am

Ascot 2:30

Bear Behind: Was a good 5th in a similiar race here on tuesday when drawn very badly , and with a better draw here could have a decent shot of placing at least. That races form looks very strong and he looks overpriced.

1 Point win 1 Point Palce betfair 38/10

longshotvalue · 16-06-2011 11:56am

Ascot: 3:05

Look At Me: Moore on board looks set to get better with step up in trip ,and was a good 2yo. She just looks to be a bit big for her potential stepping up in trip ( even if she isnt bred to stay as a lot of Aob are)

1 Point win 16/1 Coral 365

100 Bets Flat Peak Season

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