100 Bets Flat Peak Season

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

yeah sorry saw it in paper this morning and was thinking of other horse.. some luck if he wins as ive still backed the wrong horse:o:mad:

:eek: some luckbox, no other word for it, backed the wrong horse and he won, result wont be included here:o

restingpilgrim

Well done. I think lol :rolleyes:

longshotvalue

Leopardstown 6:25

Remember Alexander: Very eyecatching debut when unlucky in running when second to power, after being very well backed.. His next run was poor in comparison, but im not convinced about the fav here, and its significant enough to see him stepped up in class here. His current price of 12/1 looks big (mainly because the fav is too short), and if he can improve at all on his debut hell have a very decent shot. The last run needs to be forgotten about tough.

2 Points Win 12/1 Ladbrokes

longshotvalue

Leopardstown 7:30

Jan Vermeer: Kind of hard to see him turning the tables with the fav here after the last run, but he has blinkers on today and looked in need of them a few times this year. 8/1 with PP looks about 3 points too big for him to get back to form so its worth a small bet. Formally top class and was very good last year..

2 Points win 8/1 Paddy Power

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Leopardstown 6:25

Remember Alexander: Very eyecatching debut when unlucky in running when second to power, after being very well backed.. His next run was poor in comparison, but im not convinced about the fav here, and its significant enough to see him stepped up in class here. His current price of 12/1 looks big (mainly because the fav is too short), and if he can improve at all on his debut hell have a very decent shot. The last run needs to be forgotten about tough.

2 Points Win 12/1 Ladbrokes

Backed into 7/1 and hacked up..

longshotvalue

Weeks review

Laughing Lashes : Unlucky here, with the whip being dropped at the most opertune time 1f from home with the horse responding, well never know but a pity as she rana great race and looks near the top of the 3yo brigade -1
Amazin Beauty: Ended up beign the pacemaker and picked the wrong ballydoyle outsider to run a good race -1
Look At Me: No luck here as she got an apalling ride, even worse than JM's on the runner up, flew at the finish to be 4th but was left 4-5 lenghts of the field turning for home and left with far too much to do -1
Benny The Bear: Ran Very Awkardly and didnt respond at all in the finish. -2
Northern Dare: Ran a bit better than he has been here, but no finishing kick at all -2
Remember Alexander: Backed into 7/1 and hacked up, Jockey took the best course as well, but he built on his promise of that first run +24 Points
Jan Vermeer: Stayed on the rail into the straight which was a stupid move on easily the worst of the ground. -2

Previous total +70.1 Points This week Sun-Friday +15 Points Running Total +85.1 Points

longshotvalue

Ascot 3:55

Very Good Day: I selected him last time at a huge price and despite getting bumped into the straight, he gave me the impression he could stay further. Im unsure about the ground today, but this is a significant step up in trip and he has dropped to a mark which might give him a shout. I can see him staying on into a place here and 33/1 EW looks a bit of value. He has some class form as a 2yo, and ran well enough last year in high class race. This slower pace might just suit him.

1 Point EW 33/1 Various

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Ascot 3:55

Very Good Day: I selected him last time at a huge price and despite getting bumped into the straight, he gave me the impression he could stay further. Im unsure about the ground today, but this is a significant step up in trip and he has dropped to a mark which might give him a shout. I can see him staying on into a place here and 33/1 EW looks a bit of value. He has some class form as a 2yo, and ran well enough last year in high class race. This slower pace might just suit him.

1 Point EW 33/1 Various

He was Backed into 20/1 and ran a very good race only just failing to get 3rd, he finished 1/2 a length away in 5th and was closing in the end.. He might not be value next time, but hell be worth a bet in a similiar race next time.. -2 Points

longshotvalue

tomorrow Newmarket 3:20

Majestic Dubawi: this is the 3rd time of gone for this horse at big prices but at a rating of 97 only her last run doesnt indicate that she may be able to do something of that rating. Her second last run in the in the Bond Types off 100 gave the impression that she could do with further, and altough this run is still over 6f, the ground will be softer tomorrow and that should suit, as she won her maiden on soft. She was very well supported last time but was really eased down once it was apparent that she wasnt going to have a chance, and with fillies thay can often put in a poor run and come back from it. Im going to give her another chance to do something at a decent price she's 33/1 at the monent is a few places and judging by here last few races she may go off shorter than that. Also Chris Catlin is back on her and actually has won both time hes ridden her before not that that should really mean much.

1 Point EW 33/1

longshotvalue

Tomorrow Ascot 3:50

Al Muheer: He has been terrible this year really, and as a result he has tumbled down the handicap to today were he is acutally 4 lbs out of the handicap, that said his last run looked like a bit of an improvement, and he is a c&d winner of 99 and is in here of 81 (albeit deservedly). I just got the feeling this year that if the horse shows interest at all he can do something of this mark. 33/1 with 5 places looks ok, and he will probably be backed a bit tomorrow so its worth a shot taking a small ew Bet now. The 5lbs claimer on at least means he is racing of the weight he should be which is only 7-7 and hopefully that lighweight wakes him up.

1 Point EW Boyles 12345 33/1

longshotvalue

tomorrow York 3:05

Twice Over. The 9/4 currently available looks a bit of an overreaction to his poor looking run at Ascot, but he did travel too free there and tried to go with See You Think too early, which gave him no chance of a decent showing. That price could be made to look silly as he is miles clear of these tomorrow and should win. The main reason that price is available is because tof the possible improvement in Dominant, but he has a long way to go. I have the feeling that as the race get closer tomorrow this price will dissapear as sense prevails.

4 Points Win 9/4 Various.

longshotvalue

Tomorrow York 3:40

Mister Hughie; Couldnt wait to get on him when he was declared last week, and i feel the same here, he looked to run a much better race last time, and altough that was over 5f he has plenty of form over 6 as well. he is currently 22/1 and that looks about 6 points too big.

2 Points EW 22/1

Midnight Martini: She has an excellent course record, and ran well last time here over c&d where she was getting 7lbs from hoof it and is now getting 14. considering Hoof It is 6/1 Fav there is way to big a differnace in price here and a similiar run to that could well be good enough here, as that looked a better race overall.. 22/1 Looks good value.

2 Points EW 22/1

clived2

aidankkk wrote: »

Tomorrow Ascot 3:50

Al Muheer: He has been terrible this year really, and as a result he has tumbled down the handicap to today were he is acutally 4 lbs out of the handicap, that said his last run looked like a bit of an improvement, and he is a c&d winner of 99 and is in here of 81 (albeit deservedly). I just got the feeling this year that if the horse shows interest at all he can do something of this mark. 33/1 with 5 places looks ok, and he will probably be backed a bit tomorrow so its worth a shot taking a small ew Bet now. The 5lbs claimer on at least means he is racing of the weight he should be which is only 7-7 and hopefully that lighweight wakes him up.

1 Point EW Boyles 12345 33/1

Castles in the Air won this race last year at 9-0 while Al Muheer was
8th at 9-1

The previous winner was Al Muheer at 8-10, trainer quote
25Jul09 Ascot ( 7 Gd ,RPR110 )
It was a carefully laid plan. I told the horse to shed a shoe, keep the others waiting and then destroy them! He does like Ascot and he´s a 10lb better horse on this racecourse - Clive Brittain



He is priced up as 22/1 on racing post


Def worth an ew bet before price goes.


Excellent Guest has been knocking on the door and seems a good weight
too

longshotvalue

Tomorrow Ascot.

St Nicholas Abbey: I was wondering would he get to 3/1, and he has now. When he raced in chester i was totally taken aback with the performace there, he could have done another lap it looked like, i know it wasnt that great a race, but still it was impressive. His beating of one of the most consistant mares in training while obviously not liking the course was also impressive really. Workforce had a hard race against so you think last time out and this could easily tell against him. The same could be said about Rewilding altough he has had a better break. I would say the Coolmore money could go down tomorrow at this kind of price and hell surly go of much shorter, im guessing 7/4 about.

3 Points Win 3/1 Various

longshotvalue

Newmarket 2:45

Eucharist: Altough she hasnt been as good this year since a very good first run, there hasnt been anything to suggest that she cant run up to a mark off 92, and getting the 3yo allowence will help. There are a few less exposed in the field but she looks overpriced at 25/1 in stanjames and bluesquare and betfair. If she can get back to early season form or the end of last year shell have a chance here.

1 Point EW 25/1 Stanjames

longshotvalue

Ascot 1:30

Compton Blue.. I'm going with the stable second string here. He has proven consistent enough of around this Mark winning twice last year. This year he had a good first run and wasn't as good the other day but he looks overpriced at 40/1 The fact that he stays 8f might be an advantage in this type of race.. Looks to have a good chance of placing at least..

1 point EW 40/1 Coral or bet fair...

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

tomorrow York 3:05

Twice Over. The 9/4 currently available looks a bit of an overreaction to his poor looking run at Ascot, but he did travel too free there and tried to go with See You Think too early, which gave him no chance of a decent showing. That price could be made to look silly as he is miles clear of these tomorrow and should win. The main reason that price is available is because tof the possible improvement in Dominant, but he has a long way to go. I have the feeling that as the race get closer tomorrow this price will dissapear as sense prevails.

4 Points Win 9/4 Various.

Abolute Beauty, silly bookies, not near his best but didnt need to be

longshotvalue

Saturdays Report

Majestic Dubawi: Backed from 33/1 to 20/1 but had noting at all in the finals part of race. -2
Al Muheer: Finally staarting to show something, he travelled well and got blocked in his first run, but didnt have enough to get to the front end. Still getting better and ill keep on his side for a win soon enough -2
Twice Over: Won well thank god somewhat saving a total disaster of a day +9
Mister Hughie: Never in the race and right out the back -4
Midnight Martini: Looked likely at one stage but really faded out of it in the end -4
St Nicholas Abbey: Ran well but looked to get a poor ride, he needed to puch on when the pace was that slow. i wouldnt rule him out in the Arc tough, in a stronger run race -3
Eucharist: Never in it and eased right down near the end -2
Compton Blue: Midtable -2.

-10 Points Today, -2 Friday Previous total +85.1 Running total +73.1 Points

longshotvalue

Galway 5:05

Devils Bit. There doesnt appear to be too much between this and the Weld Fav here. He has good form at Gorwan on Good ground and was placing in a Grade 3 Hurdle until he was brought down at the last. The fav did beat Tavern Times but getting 10 lbs and altough decent form it doesnt look anything special. I give them about the same chance and with all Weld Horses invariably underpriced at Galway the Selection looks a bit of Value.

2 Points Win 4.6 Betfair

Gavin "shels"

Always nice when you pick a horse and aidan or Pyro pick the same on out!:)

Lets hope Devils Bit romps home now!

longshotvalue

Galway 6:45

Gretzky: Hes a huge price, but in a few of his races lately he has shown a very decent turn of foot, which has been played too early particulary in his first run in this country. He is 3 lbs lower here and if he can be played a bit later (which is difficult around here) he might get into a place.

.5 Point EW 66/1 Boylessports 12345

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Galway 6:10

Pierre D'or: With the top 2 looking a good bit clear of the remainder, the selection wasnt that far behind Learn on Debut and was eased up a lot in the finish. He looks to have as good a chance as any to fill 3rd spot here and any improvement at all should put him there, that makes 8.6 to place on betfair about 3 points too big in my book.

1 Point Place 8.6 Betfair.

longshotvalue

Galway 5:35

First Trim: Won a maiden hurdle around here 2 years ago, and followed up with a win in a handicap after that. He ran an eyecatching race in a very good Chepstow hurdle behind a few top class horses of a Uk rating of 131. After a long break he looks to have been getting better with each run and travelled well last time, when he got outpaced but ran on again at the finish. In a messy enough race with nothing obvious he tick a lot of boxes for a big price chance of a reduced mark with Davy Russell up.

1 Point EW 16/1 Ladbrokes

longshotvalue

Galway 5:00

First in the queue. : raider from strong stable who just looks too big a price on boyles this morning. Very decent novice win last time and highest rated in field , although possibly more exposed than most, 8/1 looks at least 3 points too big in this field..

2 points win Boylesports 8/1

longshotvalue

Galway 6:45

Kyllachy Star: He has been running well in top class handicaps in the uk this season as well as having a really good record around Chester including a win there lately of a mark of 94. That should mean a tight track like galway hold no fears for him and given his running in what are better quality races in the uk, he looks to have a great chance here at a decent price. He could have been drawn better but a wide draw didnt stop him winning that race at chester. the 25/1 Available at the moment look too big and hes more of a 12-16/1 shot.

1 Point EW 25/1 Betfred

Royal Blue Star: The only 3yo in the field getting all the allowences, had a very good win in Listowel and altough he went up 16lbs for that, the performance in a listed race next time out despite being dissapointing probably indicated that that rating is well within his grasp. Of a low weight here witha low draw and a front running style which should be ideally suited to this race, he may be difficult to pass. Could easily go off shorted that the 11.5 currently available on Betfair

1 Point win 11.5 Betfair

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Goodwood 2:00

Circumvent: May be getting down to a mark he can work of now. He is back to what should be his best trip of a mark lower than his last win over the trip, and has been running over too short hopefully with this race as the plan all along. His last run over 8f was decent enough and the addition of Headgear today could well wake him up. He has a lot of pointers that today is the day and looks overpriced on betfair at 19.5

2 Points Win 19.5 Betfair

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Yesterdays Report

Unlucky yesterday in a few spots

Devils Bit got injured on the turn for home and was pulled up. -2 Points
Pierre D'or the place bet at 8.6 just failed byt he shorted of margins when he was knocked out of 3rd by a Short Head -1 Point
First Trim: Ran well and Finished 3rd after getting bumped and squeezed at the wrong time just before the last. +3 Points
Gretzky: Less said the better, pulled like crazy early on and pulled up. -1 Point

-1 Point on the day with no luck at all so not so bad Running total +72.1

longshotvalue

Goodwood 2:35

Yaseer : the fav will be hard to beat here but is no value, i cant see a lot of differance between this ones form and the 2nd fav Slumber. He was a very good 3rd in the craven and did dissapoint in what was a hot Dante, but wouldnt need to be improve much to have good shout of placing here at a very decent price. He is currently 25/1 EW with Stan James and similiar on betfair and this looks a good few points too big

1 Point EW 25/1 Stan James

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Goodwood 4:50

Breakheart: Travelled well last time before weakening over a longer trip, but its his form of a very good 3rd over 9f at Newmarket with 4 lbs more that reads very well as it was a stronger race than this. Any reproduction fo that form would put him in with a shout here and hes a huge price after a couple of poorer runs. Worth a small risk if he does return to form.

.5 Point EW Stanjames 40/1 (similiar on Betfair)

longshotvalue

Galway 6:10

Bashkirov: This is more gut feeling than anything else, he has no weight and a low draw, he should be able to get out in front, and with such a low weight maybe he can stay on for a place. 10lbs claimer not ideal judge of pace i assume but worth a min bet for interest. He got badly hampered last time when beginning to make a challange and looked to be going better than he has done of late.

.5 Points 40/1 EW Ladbrokes