100 Bets Flat Peak Season

longshotvalue

Worcester 8:25

Laustra Bad, he looks a decent enough price considering what he has done in his last 2 hurdle races. He got right back to form and has plenty of potential against this field. Im sure Pipe would have hm in here in a handicap if he didnt feel the mark was fine. Good ground and 2 miles he could have too much for these

2 Points win 7/2

longshotvalue

Galway 5:35

The Last Derby, looks to have an ideal race here, there is a lotof question marks about the other contenders in terms of ground and form and his second to mossy joe looks to be the bext form on show. He didnt stay last run and backto his best trip he should go close. I actually have him as fav here. So 5/1 looks a bit of value.

3 Points Win 5/1 Various

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Yesterdays Report

First in the queue: was backed into 5/1 but didnt have enough kick in the end finished 3rd -2
Kyllachy Star: Raced wide all the way and really never stood a chance, lessons learned -2
Royal Blue Star: Ran a great race to be 2nd after leading from the start ,just couldnt hold on -1
Yaseer : Got going too late and was just out of the places finished better than anything, one to watch -2
Breakheart: Out the back and never in the race. -1
Bashkirov: didnt get into the lead early and finished midfield -1
Laustra Bad: Diss apointing run, i didnt see the race finished 5th. -2
The Last Derby: Pulled up very early looked to be injured jumping . -3

Not a great day Yaseer is one to watch soon over a longer trip.

-14 Points Running total +58.1 Points

longshotvalue

Doncaster 2:00

Hollins: If the connections have any sense they have this race in mind for this flat season , he was 6th last year with 10lbs more and with much improved hurdling this year, if that can be transferred to the flat hell be in with an excellent shout. He has been creeping down the weights with some poor enough performances in smaller races, hopefully with a view to today, as there arent that many races of this type trough the year. 25/1 With Stan James looks well overpriced and i wouldnt be surprised at all if he went of at half that price.

2 Points EW 25/1 Stan James

longshotvalue

Galway 3:35

AsktheMaster: Is on a very good mark over hurdles compared to Fences, and has had a bit of a break since Punchestown when he unseated rider when going well 4 from home. He looks to have a great shout here and Boyles currently have him at 16/1 which cannot last. hes 20lbs better of over hurdles and could be hard to knock out of the places at least. Even some of his hurdling form put him on a highet mark than this.

2 Points EW Boylesports 16/1

longshotvalue

Ill add in a 1 PT EW Double with boyles on AskTheMaster & Hollins , as i recon their place potential is very good, current Price with Boyles 20/1 Hollins 16/1 Askthemaster.

1PT EW Double Boylesports

longshotvalue

Galway 6:35

Princess Severus: Having a look at this race a lot of the horses ahead of this one in the betting have a good few negatives about them, and her 2yo form would make her mark here of 88 look decent enough. She ran a poor race last time dropped out to the back over 10f but has been better raced prominantly over 7furlongs, where she looks as if a step up in trip might suit. She has changed to an inform stable and could improve enought with her dropping mark to have a shout here.

1 Point ew 12/1 Various

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Doncaster 2:00

Hollins: If the connections have any sense they have this race in mind for this flat season , he was 6th last year with 10lbs more and with much improved hurdling this year, if that can be transferred to the flat hell be in with an excellent shout. He has been creeping down the weights with some poor enough performances in smaller races, hopefully with a view to today, as there arent that many races of this type trough the year. 25/1 With Stan James looks well overpriced and i wouldnt be surprised at all if he went of at half that price.

2 Points EW 25/1 Stan James

BOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMM .. Makes that EW double intersting now:eek:

Soarer

Thanks for Hollins. Took me a while to realise Doncaster=Goodwood!

Well up on the day irrespective on what happens now. Not very often you can say that at 2 o'clock!

longshotvalue

Goodwood 4:55

Enderby Spirit : This is a strange kind of race, but there isnt a lot between the field, and alotugh he has a terrible draw, there is a bit or room for improvement in the selection. He has looked a few times like 7f might help, and if he can get into any kind of position from wide 25/1 EW might look a bit of value. He is getting back to form this year and has raced of a lot higher.

1 Point EW 25/1 Boyles Sports.

longshotvalue

Galway Plate 5:25 i cant see a lot of place value on this race so im going with a few on betfair to win against the field

Finger Onthe Pulse: Last year winner raced here of a higher mark but has the same racing weight and hes a class animal who may well be cabable of a repeat, as i assume this would be his target since last year. 55 on betfair looks way too big.

1 Point win Betfair 55.

Scotsirish: Is about as solid as they come and with 5 placed on Paddy Power he has a great record of placing with a lot of weight and looks a bit of value

1 Point EW 25/1 12345 Paddy Power.Aigle D'or: Has a bit of class and is in here with a very light weight, trainer doesnt send them over here without some kind of shout. and hes better than 25/1 to get back to form here.

1 Point EW 25/1 12345 Boyles Sports

Soarer

3rd and 5th in a 5 place race...top work! Pity I didn't see them until afterwards!

longshotvalue

3d and 5th for Scots and Aigle

thesandeman

Must be the first time ever I backed 4 horses in a race but ended up with first, third, and fifth.
Must look into this dutching lark a bit more.
Cheers for today Aidan. Looking like my most profitable Galway/Goodwood week in years.

longshotvalue

todays Report

Hollins: Had a fair bit of confidence in this one to be placed but he won well and stayed on superbly, i was never swapping troughout and about time to get a decent winner in 2pts EW 25/1 + 62.5 Points
Canford Cliffs: Frankle Wiped the floor with him in one of teh best preformances ive seen in a long time -4 Points
AsktheMaster: Was backed into 8/1 from 16s, but ran out of steam after travelling well troughout. -4 Points
EW Double. -2 pts
Princess Severus: Had to run wide the whole way to finish 4th. -2 Points
Enderby Spirit : Didnt Stay 7f -2 pts
Finger Onthe Pulse: Ran well but just couldnt keep younger horses at bay -1
Scotsirish: Placed 5th, which he always seems to do, raging i didnt stake bigger here but still +5.25 Points
Aigle D'or : Ran trough tired horses with his low weight to finsish 3rd. Might be one for next year.. +5.25 Points

+58 Points on the DAY Previous Total +58.1 Running Total +116.1 Points

longshotvalue

Off racing tomorrow so wont have may picks


Goodwood 2:45

Kingsgate Native: Im a gluton for punishment, but he ran with the choke out the whole way the last time, and in fairness he has run to his mark of 115 almost every time over 5furlongs. If he does that tomorrow he wins. He was very well backed last time so hopefully he is showing something at home, and settles better tomorrow. 13/2 looks a little bit of value.

3 Points win 13/2 Various, Betfred, Coral, Will Hill.

longshotvalue

Goodwood 3:15

Lost in the Moment: Ive picked him last twice and he has given the impression of a stayer. His last run was eyecatching as he had no room ,and sauntered into 3rd almost as an aftertought. If he can switch off like the last run for this much longer race, that kick will beat a lot of these if its still there. Worth a shot at 18/1. i wont go EW as if he doesnt stay he wont place.

2 Points win 18/1 Coral & Boyles

_Tipsbymark

aidankkk wrote: »

Goodwood 3:15

Lost in the Moment: Ive picked him last twice and he has given the impression of a stayer. His last run was eyecatching as he had no room ,and sauntered into 3rd almost as an aftertought. If he can switch off like the last run for this much longer race, that kick will beat a lot of these if its still there. Worth a shot at 18/1. i wont go EW as if he doesnt stay he wont place.

2 Points win 18/1 Coral & Boyles

Photo finish.. even if he doesn't win, thats a superb selection

Only a place, really unlucky

longshotvalue

Went Racing to Galway, and as i dont Back Favs it was a disaster punting wise

Yesterdays Reports

Kingsgate Native was really dissapointing again, after being backed into 4/1. Definatly something wrong as thats 2 in a row where he is not withing 15lbs of his best.

Lost in the Moment, was really unlucky, he was mowing down the winner and the post just came too soon, a shocking amount of trouble found trying to get a run, he had to correct his run 3-4 times within the space of 1/2 furlong, but it was a superb run from and 18/1 Selection, who was backed into 11/1. Aparently he is going for the Ebor now and he wont be any value for that.. One my unluckiest selections in a long while..:(

longshotvalue

Goodwood 5:25

The Thrill is Gone: Has come up against some real speedsters in listed and cond races this year, and has ran well against horses rated far higher then the 94 she gets here, only her last run was poor on possibly ground that was too soft. There is plenty in her form that suggest a rating of a few pounds more may be more like it and she looks superb value at 22/1 With Boyles Sports

1 Point EW 22/1 Boyles

longshotvalue

Goodwood 3:10

Mr David: Im amazed he is not one of the Favs here, he ran a superb race last time out when finished fast in the bunbury Cup, and the step up in trip should suit, he is drawn 10 which isnt too bad and has Fallon up. He is relativly light raced and if he can improve at all he has a superb chance here of a mark of 95. I dont see any chance he goes of at near th 28/1 available atm, 16/1 is more like it.

2 Points EW 28/1 Betfred & Totesport.

longshotvalue

Goodwood 2:00

Indian Days: There is not a lot between most of these near the top of the market, except for Redwood (if he get back to form), but the Selection is easily the bext value on show here in what could be a tight race. He has very good course form and his win first time out this year was good. He has a couple of poorer runs in G1 lately, which were out of his league, but this G3 might be an ideal opertunity. 16/1 looks a few points woo big in comparison to other of a similiar standard, especially when taken into account with his course form.

1 Point EW 16/1 365 Stan James Will Hill

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Todays Report:

Indian Days. didnt look to stay and finished out the back -2
Mr David: Very poor near the back as well.-4
The Thrill is Gone: Saved a blank day by running good race under top wiehgt for 3rd, after being backed into 16/1. +4.5

-1.5 for today -5 Yesterday Previous total 116.1 Running total +109.6 Points

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Goodwood 2:05

Noverre To Go : He has good course form having been 5the in the Stewart Cup last year of 9lbs higher, and really im hoping that this race or maybe the main race were the paln this year and he will be primed for this. He has really dropped a lot and altough he hasnt shown much this year, a couple of time he didnt get and run, or didnt look to be trying. There is 25/1 Available but he has a decent record of placing before this year and the extr place at 20/1 might be worth while. I may put another point EW tomorrow if 25/1 with 5 place becomes available

1 Point EW 20/1 12345 blue Square

longshotvalue

Stewarts Cup

Tax Free: With him its a case of him dropping to far in the handicap for basically a few bad runs this year. Im hoping this race was the plan for him, and he is so big on betfair at the moment (and could get bigger), i dont think it would be a huge surprise to see him get back to form here at a huge price. He has some very good course form with a win and 2 other good runs out of 3 attempts. On Betfair atm he is 70 to win and 11 to place.

1 Point win Betfair @ 70 1 Point Place 11 Betfair

Atlantic Sport: He has run a few good races this year of this mark, but his last run in Ascot was eyecatching as he came from last to 5th, and also his previous race looks to give him a shot of this rating of placing at least. He has been placing a big percentage of the time troughout his carreer.50/1 with 5 placed looks excellent value.

1 Point EW 50/1 Ladbrokes 12345

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Doncaster 2:45

Mister Hughie: This might be his type of race with less runners than the big handicaps, he is the outsider of the field which given his second last run he probable doesnt deserve to be. 16/1 with Betfred looks 3-4 point too big for this field.

1 Point win 16/1 Betfred 14/1 elsewhere.

yaaaboy

aidankkk wrote: »

Doncaster 2:45

Mister Hughie: This might be his type of race with less runners than the big handicaps, he is the outsider of the field which given his second last run he probable doesnt deserve to be. 16/1 with Betfred looks 3-4 point too big for this field.

1 Point win 16/1 Betfred 14/1 elsewhere.

Almost time to give up on this infuriating fella id say, we know he has it in him and he'l probably win someday at 40/1 when he feels like it but hes been killing me lately. Saying that, all his best form has been on good/firm ground in late August and September so might give him just one more chance!

longshotvalue

Saturday report

Noverre to go: Near the back and disappointing -2
Tax Free: finished 2nd but was only beaten by what looks a total superstar.. Great run considering his price. +9
Atlantic Sport: another good run from this consistent horse to be a fast finishing 8th.. Large place bet in his next 7 furlong race under similar conditions.. -2
Mister Hughie: didn't perform at all and getting infuriating.. -2

+3 points for the day..

longshotvalue

3:30 Chester

Blue Jack: I've got the impression one or 2 times this year that he could come back to form soon enough. He has been poor enough his last two runs but he has a good course record and is probably a few points too big for his potential .. Really it's more gut feeling than anything so worth a small bet..

1 point win 16/1 various

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Ripon 3:45

Midnight Martini: forgiving her last run she had two runs before that that were showing a step back to form.. She is down 3 lbs for her last run and in this lower class race a return to her previous runs will give her a great chance here and she looks overpriced at 16/1 with paddy power. Let's hope the race stays with 16 runners ..

2 points EW 16/1 paddy power..