100 Bets Flat Peak Season

longshotvalue

Todays Report:

Monsieur Chevalier : Ran a superb race and i was getting confident before the race as Fallon more or less said tuesdays run was a training spin. Finished 2nd by an head. 2 points EW 50/1 Advised +23 points
Waffle: Just failed to get to the winner, and ran the race i suspected he would at some stage this year. 2 Points EW 20/1 Advised +8 Points
Blue Jack: Drawn and ran on wrong side, didnt stay in teh ground, but he might be one for a win shortly. -2 Points
Quest For Success: Loved the ground and just about held on for a win, advised 6/1 went of 9/2. 2 Points win 6/1 +12 Points
Ile De Re: Stayed on at the end for 6th, but the race needed to be a stronger pace for his staying ability to count. -3 Points
Ajaan: Ran a decent race in 3rd: -2 Points

My Best day since Cheltenham by far, but could have been massive,2 sprints were so close at huge prices. Delighted they both ran so well as they were my first 4 point bets this tread.

Previous Total +39.3 today +34 Points : Tread Total +75.3 Points

Letyourselfgo

aidankkk wrote: »

Previous Total +39.3 today +40 Points : Tread Total +79.3 Points

Well done and as I said on xpyro's log ,class.

longshotvalue

Ascot is over

4:05 Gowran.

Dreamy Gent: He could have found the ideal race here. He really needs good to firm ground and it looks as tough that is what he might get, altough im not sure how its that fast considering the rain around here the last few days. A repeat of his 4th in a much stronger race at Fairyhouse would probably be enough here, and he has come down a further 2 lbs after a shocking run in Punchestown on softer ground only 7 days later. He looks a bit of value at on betfair at 17.5 win 4.4 place.

1 Point win 1 Point Place.

restingpilgrim

I would like to point out that when you put up a horse e/w and the horse places the win part should come off the profit. For example 2e/w on a 50/1 shot placed at a qtr the odds is 12.5/1 for 2 =27 back minus 4 staked is only 23 Profit not 25 profit

longshotvalue

restingpilgrim wrote: »

I would like to point out that when you put up a horse e/w and the horse places the win part should come off the profit. For example 2e/w on a 50/1 shot placed at a qtr the odds is 12.5/1 for 2 =27 back minus 4 staked is only 23 Profit not 25 profit

S**t thats what i normally do ill amend it.. thanks

longshotvalue

Carlisle 3:05

Keys Of Cyprus: He has had 2 poor enough runs this year but both were on good-firm which he clearly doesnt like. His seasonal debut on good was better, and the Softer going here today will definatly suit him better. He represents a formidable team for this kind of race and his mark of 77 is well withing his grasp, having had a few good runs last year of 82-83.. He looks a bit of value currently at 25/1 EW with Skybe tor Will Hill.


1 Point EW 25/1

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Carlisle 4:10

Hidden glory, came back from a small break after AW racing to give a decent enough performance at Ripon on turf last week. He is rated higher on the AW and if he can transfer some of this years decent AW form to turf he will be in with a shot here. Last weeks race was eyecatching in that he seemed to run awkwardly near the finish for some reason to finish 3rd. If that can be straightened out he could improve for that run. He is 34 win 6.4 place on betfair paying 4 places and that looks a bit of value.

1 Point win 1 Point Place betfair.

longshotvalue

Carlisle: 3:35

Vito Volterra: He simply looks overpriced on his last run against the Fav here. He is a good bit better at the weights and looks a decent battler who can get into a place at a decent price. His last 3 runs have been very decent and he seems to be improving with each one. He is 25 win 5.3 place on betfair paying 1234 and that looks a few points too big.

1 Point win 1 Point Place betfair

longshotvalue

todays report

Vito Volterra, ran a great race to be second, the other 2 were just about last. .

.7 Point loss on the day not so bad.

Yesterday Dreamy Gent looksed a bit slow really, and finished 6th. -2 points


Previous Total +75.3 today -2.7 Points : Tread Total +72.6 Points

longshotvalue

Newcastle 3:20

Im going to give the outsider of the field a small chance here. Bonfire Knight made a winning return to flat at doncaster, after only an ok few spins over hurdles. He won that day of 85, and after a few runs lately where he has travelled well but didnt appear to stay or took too keen a hold he has come back to 88 and has a 7lbs claimer on today. The last time he had a claimer on he was well supported and im hoping the same might happen today. If he can recapture that form of his first run this year, he certainly has a chance here, but hell need to settle better than he has been doing of late. This is also 2 furlongs shorter than he generally has been running over, but that doesnt look much of a disadvantage considering he has been travelling prominently but weakening.


1 Point win Betfair 1 Point Place 32 win 8 place

restingpilgrim

Unlucky. Should have stayed loyal to Vito:p

longshotvalue

restingpilgrim wrote: »

Unlucky. Should have stayed loyal to Vito:p

yep, but i figured he was too short a price and having run yesterday not great value... Oops.. :o

longshotvalue

Newcatle 7:25

Silaah: He has been in superb form on the AW for the last few months , with a few wins and a very good run at mayden. He had another decent 2nd last time out, when 2nd in a similiar race to this and altough he has gone up a few pounds for that, this race looks a bit weaker and he looks overpriced at 13.5 on betfair. If he can translate any of his AW improvement over to turf hell be able of his mark of 93. Change of headgea this time after wandering last time in the finish should help.

1 Point win 13.5 betfair

longshotvalue

Newcastle 2:00

Genki, Looking at his form with Regal Parade, there really may not be that much between them and he is a much better price. He likes softer ground and ran a very decent race last weeek. There is 8lbs betweeen them on official ratings but i think genki is rated lower than he should be and the opposite about regal parade.

3 Points Win 5/1 Various

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Newcastle 2:00

Genki, Looking at his form with Regal Parade, there really may not be that much between them and he is a much better price. He likes softer ground and ran a very decent race last weeek. There is 8lbs betweeen them on official ratings but i think genki is rated lower than he should be and the opposite about regal parade.

3 Points Win 5/1 Various

Beauty, great run, really travelled well...

Derek!

aidankkk wrote: »

Beauty, great run, really travelled well...

Well done great pickin

longshotvalue

2:30 newcastle

Johannes: He has been gambled on the last few runs, and has looked as tough his day is not that far away. This looks a poor enough race and his chance of hitting today looks a bit better than the 18.5 he is on betfair. He is bond to win one this year of this mark.

1 Point win Betfair 18.5

longshotvalue

Newcastle 3:05

Icon Dream, has had a few half decent runs this year, but as a 3yo his best runs were on softer ging. His run in chester was half decent this year, and his slipping mark and big price looks attractive. This looks to be his best trip and he looks overpriced at 40 win and 6.8 place on Betfair for 4 places.

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

Newcastle 3:40

Brea Hill. Last run can be forgiven but he had a few eyecatching run before that and loves softer ground. He looks a good bit overrpiced at 14/1 EW. Hes back down to a mark that he can work of with conditions right.

1 Point EW 14/1 Various

I only ended up getting 12/1 EW about the above the 14 was gone when i went to back it

longshotvalue

Update
both thursdays Bonfire Night and Fridays Sillah, ran poorly never in with a chance and near the back: -3 Points

Saturday

Genki: Ran a great race travelled like the winner all teh way and won well in the end, his rating will go up to about where it should be after this,and he should have a chance in later season g1 Sprints on softer ground. 3 Point win 5/1 +15 Points
Johannes: Travelled really well and looked a likely winner a lot of the way, but finished 3rd. The value will bo gone on him for his next few runs, and hell be popping up soon in a similiar race. -1 Point
Icon Dream: Stayed out the back and ran on well near the end for 7th, probably had too much to do, but could easily place in a similiar race on soft ground maybe over slightly shorter trip. -2 Points
Brae Hill: Travelled like the likely winner, and was gambled on before the off, but got a silly ride, he was allowed to drift back 2 f out and then ran on again near the end for 5th. But should have been kicked on while he was travelling well. One to watch next time..-2 points

Thursday Friday -3 points
Saturday +10 Points

Previous Total +72.6 Tread Total +79.6 Points

longshotvalue

Curragh 3:10

Artic.. All his form is on soft. He should improve for his first run this year. And this step down in class is no harm.. One of the highest rated in the race and overpriced 9/1

1 point win..

longshotvalue

Derby

Roderick o,connor.. Ignoring his last run, even tough he is an aftertought, he wouldn't be in at all if aob felt he had no chance of staying.. Good tough performance in 2000 and very good on softer ground at end end if last year. He looks a bit of value in a messy race.

1 point win 20/1 various.

longshotvalue

Ponte 3:45

Breedj: Ive tipped her before at big prices without success but she is in here of a better mark, in a lower class race, so ill give her a bit of a shot. Her 2 yo form would put her in with a great shout.

1 Point win 55 betfair 1 point place 10.4 betfair

longshotvalue

Update

Artic Ran, well staying on strongly at the finish, and may be getting back to form. so hopefully he will find a soft ground sprint shortly to in.
Roderick o Conner, was out for a training run, and was never put in the race..
Breej: Didnt pick up at all after being well palced, and just diesnt look to like racing atm.

-4 Points total Running total +75.6

longshotvalue

15:35 Doncaster

Advanced: Ignoring his run at ascot, where the ground was too soft, (he has never run a good race on ground that soft), he had looked to be coming back to form his previous few races and 16.0 on betfair is a very big price. He had a good 4th over c&d in a better race, and is a few pounds better of with the 2nd Webbow, who is less than half his price.

2 Points win 16.0 2 Points Place 4.4 Betfair

longshotvalue

Sandown 4:00

Vesuve : His win and improvement at the end of last year, has to put him in with a chance here if his first admittly poor run this season has put him right. He is back over 10f and it look his best trip. He looks the stable choice and the fav might be a bit clear of these , but there doesnt seem to be a lot between the rest.

1 Point win 19.0 Betfair 2 point place 4.8 Betfair

longshotvalue

Sandown 4:35

Totally Ours: Her mark here of 88, looks to give here a decent chance given her listed form last year. She is back up to what looks the best trip of 10f , having run over 8 this year. Her recent 3rd in a handicap indicated she may be getting back to form and she looks overpriced on betfair at 28.0win 5.7 Place

1 Point win 1 Point Place Betfair

longshotvalue

Tomorrow Sandown 2:00

Kingsgate Native: His last run at ascot can be ruled out as the ground was too soft over 6f, but his other 2 races this year over 5 are plenty to win this, his 2 main Triple Aspect & Astrophysical Jet havnt run up to scratch this year, and the 6/1 with william hill looks massive at the moment. Draw wont help but he should be too good for these

5 Points win 6/1 Will Hill/corals 11/2 elsewhere

longshotvalue

Sandown 2:35

Harisson George: He has been dropping down the ratings this year from a high of 114, he won a handicap last year of 108, and he is in here of 102, with an encouraging run last time out in a decent race. if he can settle a bit better early here, and with the 7lbs claimer on he could get into it at a big price. He is currently 28/1 with Ladbrokes

1 Point EW 28/1 Ladbrokes

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Haydock 3:25

Very Good Day: 12f on good ground seems to be his best trip, but he has yet to see that this year, he travelled well but didnt stay 1m6f in his first run and soft ground at ascot more than likely didnt suit, but he looks to have been given a small chance by the handicapper in this race, he has come down to a mark of 91, which could be decent enough considering some of his form last year, where altough he was probably overrated he ran a few very decent races to rate up to 105. He is relativly unexposed and the trainer is on form lately. He looks a bit overpriced and might have a bit of potential for improvement

1 Point EW 28/1