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Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

  • 05-05-2020 1:59pm
    #1
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 77,533 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    Can everyone pay attention to the mod warnings set out below. In particular please remain civil to each other

    Thread I

    Thread II

    Thread III

    Thread IV

    Thread V

    Thread VI

    Thread VII

    Thread VIII

    Thread IX

    Thread X

    Thread XI

    Thread XII

    Thread XIII

    Thread XIV

    Thread XV

    Thread XVI

    Mod warnings – I have condensed these given the size the OP has become, and some of the earlier warnings are now out of date
    1. Please interact in a civil manner
    2. Do not tell others what to do, or what to post
    3. It is against site rules to seek or offer any medical advice. Please do not post here about your symptoms asking what to do. Contact your doctor by telephone and they can advise you as appropriate
    4. If you have a problem with a post report it and leave the modding to the mods
    In terms of thread content:
    • Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
    • Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
    • Whatever your own views are please recognise others are entitled to different views., Even if at different extremes please do not try and repeatedly ram your views down the throats of those who have differing views
    • Cut out any cover-up/conspiracy stuff. If you have a reliable source quote it (not just their words but provide a link to a reliable source) - otherwise your claims carry little if any weight. If you wish to discuss conspiracy theories we have a dedicated forum for that and it’s not this one
    • If the likes of the HSE have a verified Twitter account we can assume what they post is accurate. Randomers on here or elsewhere cannot be considered "official" or "reliable" sources
    • If people wish to flout the restriction rules that is up to them. They cannot complain at the consequences, be that direct action from the authorities, exposure in Social Media (not here) or being shunned by locals, friends, family etc. If they post about it here, or encourage others to flout the rules, trying to appear macho, or thinking they are above the rules or simply being a smart arse, posting privileges will be removed
    • If you don't want to see discussion about Trump perhaps stay clear of this thread between the hours of 22:00 and 01:00. This is a thread for "breaking news" so please do not expect posters to discuss things happening "now" in other threads. It's not discouraged but equally posters expect to discuss such issues in this thread (added 14/04/20)
    And now a maths lesson:
    “Average” is a non-defined term. “Mean” and “Median” are both mathematically defined terms.
    Mean = the sum of a series of numbers divided by the number of items in the series
    Hence the Mean of 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 8 = (1+2+3+3+4+7+8)/7 = 4
    Median is the midpoint number. In the above example it’s the 4th number in the sequence of 7 numbers – in this case 3
    Both numbers are examples of “averages”. Not every average is the “Mean”, not every average is the “Median”, but every “Mean” and every “Median” number is an average

    All threadbans carry over, but we will reconsider if anyone wishes to discuss it further via PM

    Currently threadbanned:
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«134567…194

Comments

  • #2
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 77,533 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    And now for the obligatory Chart

    This one's from 30 October 1968

    10. My Little Lady, The Tremeloes
    9. Les Bicyclettes de Belsize, Englebert Humperdinck
    8. Jesamine, Casuals
    7. Hey Jude, the Beatles
    6. Light my Fire, Jose Feliciano
    5. Only One Woman, Marbles
    4. Little Arrows, Leapy Lee
    3. The Good the Bad and the Ugly, Hugo Montenegro
    2. With a Little Help from my Friends, Joe Cocker

    And at Number 1, Pop Pickers.....

    Those were the days my friend
    We thought they'd never end
    We'd sing and dance forever and a day
    We'd live the life we choose
    We'd fight and never lose
    For we were young and sure to have our way.
    La la la la...
    Those were the days, oh yes those were the days


  • #3
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 77,533 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Perhaps, just seems odd to me that this virus could have been circulating for 3 months with no noticeable clinical signal.
    Bit like this thread - been here for 8 hours.....


    :pac:


  • #4
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Testing criteria relaxed no longer need to be in a priority group just sudden onset of symptoms

    Also very low positive rate testing last week, think they said 3%


  • #5
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users Posts: 15,302 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Stheno wrote: »
    Testing criteria relaxed no longer need to be in a priority group just sudden onset of symptoms

    Also very low positive rate testing last week, think they said 3%

    Was that confirmed? I saw them saying they were looking to change it this week that anyone could get a test.

    Interesting to see what numbers come through for tests in that case


  • #6
    omerin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭omerin


    Reporting on cnn that trump is considering winding down pence's task force at the end of the month. Focus for him now is getting the economy going, as if it wasnt always

    Sending the wrong message to the masses


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  • #7
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    I've really realised what the Brits (well, English) stand for during this whole thing and it seems er not much. The amount of Tory journalists and "pundits" on Twitter tonight saying "Neil Ferguson has a lot to answer for" (the guy who predicted 500k UK deaths without a lockdown) is just bizarre. He does have a lot to answer for - without a lockdown, it could have been a human catastrophe. It's like living in a parallell dimension reading these clowns - they are addicted to wealth totally addicted. The English talk the talk but when push comes to shove all the countries they look down on were far better prepared for this and took it far more seriously with a far more mature approach. And hence they are second only to the US for the total failure on Coronavirus. And at least Trump didn't get it himself - that would just be embarrasing.


  • #8
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,822 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    omerin wrote: »
    Reporting on cnn that trump is considering winding down pence's task force at the end of the month. Focus for him now is getting the economy going, as if it wasnt always

    Sending the wrong message to the masses

    They're treating it as if it's a war. Getting fed up and want to declare a victory contrary to all evidence otherwise.


  • #9
    s1ippy
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭s1ippy


    https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/

    Interesting death statistics here.
    More death notices have been posted on death notices' website RIP.ie in April 2020 for Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Meath, Louth, Cavan, and Monaghan than any other month from 2010 to present. In Carlow, Cork, and Kerry, the number of death notices in April 2020 is the highest number of postings in any April. Elsewhere in Ireland, the number of death notices posted is below previous maximums. However, it is the less densely populated and mainly rural border counties of Cavan and Monaghan that have been proportionally hardest hit. Twice as many death notices have been posted on RIP.ie in Cavan and Monaghan in April 2020 than for an average April.


  • #10
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    s1ippy wrote: »
    https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/

    Interesting death statistics here.

    May also be related to the fact not a lot of funerals happening and this is a way disseminating the fact someone has passed.


  • #11
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Was that confirmed? I saw them saying they were looking to change it this week that anyone could get a test.

    Interesting to see what numbers come through for tests in that case

    https://twitter.com/otuathail/status/1257756820883615758?s=19

    And as well Philip Nolan, the head of the modelling team has tweeted saying one could argue social distancing may have been all that was necessary!

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1257729864993562624?s=19

    Eh, hello? Is there some massive backtrack on the cards to accelerate easing of restrictions?


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  • #12
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users Posts: 15,302 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Stheno wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/otuathail/status/1257756820883615758?s=19

    And as well Philip Nolan, the head of the modelling team has tweeted saying one could argue social distancing may have been all that was necessary!

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1257729864993562624?s=19

    Eh, hello? Is there some massive backtrack on the cards to accelerate easing of restrictions?

    Excellent news regarding testing criteria.

    That's some statement from Nolan also. Lockdown was necessary at the start but a protracted one continues now despite the head of modeling saying this?


  • #13
    MipMap
    Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    Stheno wrote: »
    And as well Philip Nolan, the head of the modelling team has tweeted saying one could argue social distancing may have been all that was necessary!
    i


  • #14
    kippy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,781 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Stheno wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/otuathail/status/1257756820883615758?s=19

    And as well Philip Nolan, the head of the modelling team has tweeted saying one could argue social distancing may have been all that was necessary!

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1257729864993562624?s=19

    Eh, hello? Is there some massive backtrack on the cards to accelerate easing of restrictions?
    Maybe a review of the variables, which is ongoing anyway.


  • #15
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    kippy wrote: »
    Maybe a review of the variables, which is ongoing anyway.

    And the variables, especially re. no cancer screenings, no hospital appointments, the huge economic black hole, the massive unemployment, are shifting pretty massively one way


  • #16
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    2,123 new deaths reported in the US so far today, which brings total to 72,044.


  • #17
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,224 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Excellent news regarding testing criteria.

    That's some statement from Nolan also.

    I think you're misreading the intent. "One can argue....BUT..."


  • #18
    Loozer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 168 ✭✭Loozer


    Eod100 wrote: »
    They're treating it as if it's a war. Getting fed up and want to declare a victory contrary to all evidence otherwise.

    The yanks do love to declare victory


  • #19
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users Posts: 15,302 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    I think you're misreading the intent. "One can argue....BUT..."

    It's all in hindsight, they made the right call at the time no doubt, I just wonder if now restrictions could be loosed more if social distancing might have been enough.

    Its understandably how they would be more cautious and follow the vast majority of other countries. If it was just social distancing and it went badly wrong then they would have been lynched


  • #20
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    I think you're misreading the intent. "One can argue....BUT..."

    I think in fairness to him, hindsight is a wonderful thing.

    1. Easing of restrictions across Europe has been happening for three weeks now and so far there appears to be no significant spike
    2. There appears to be a lot of data emerging suggesting that the virus has a certain lifespan in terms of peaking in a certain timeframe regardless of lockdown or not

    Still a very strong statement for him to make. The briefing tomorrow will be interesting if the journo actually take notice

    If the data supports earlier easing, it's probably good for the economy, I cant imagine he tweet what he did without getting it cleared first


  • #21
    AdamD
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,720 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    It was undoubtedly the right decision at the time, the bigger question is whether the restrictions are still needed to the current extent, and whether the current road map is too spread out


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  • #22
    MipMap
    Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    Stheno wrote: »
    And as well Philip Nolan, the head of the modelling team has tweeted saying one could argue social distancing may have been all that was necessary!

    Explaining the importance of proper respiratory etiquette.
    Here's what he said a few days ago.
    https://vimeo.com/415306647

    And here is what he did 20 minutes earlier
    https://vimeo.com/415306776
    Rubs it in his elbow though - The one he should cough into.


  • #23
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    AdamD wrote: »
    It was undoubtedly the right decision at the time, the bigger question is whether the restrictions are still needed to the current extent, and whether the current road map is too spread out

    Yes, the restrictions are still needed.

    No, the roadmap is prudent and will aid suppression well in to the summer.

    Less panic and doom mongering and more focus on the end goal. Suppression and recovery.

    The alternative is too bleak for anyone to comprehend. A resurgence and another shutdown is in no ones interest and not worth any gamble for the sake of a couple of months careful unwinding.

    We need to keep focus on the bigger picture.


  • #24
    podgeandrodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,857 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    AdamD wrote: »
    It was undoubtedly the right decision at the time, the bigger question is whether the restrictions are still needed to the current extent, and whether the current road map is too spread out

    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Yes, the restrictions are still needed.

    No, the roadmap is prudent and will aid suppression well in to the summer.

    Well I hadn't been totally convinced Kermit, and was waiting to hear some more facts and figures on this, but thanks for deciding for us anyway. Hope you let Leo & co know, we wouldn't want them re-evaluating anything!


  • #25
    AdamD
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,720 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Yes, the restrictions are still needed.

    No, the roadmap is prudent and will aid suppression well in to the summer.

    Less panic and doom mongering and more focus on the end goal. Suppression and recovery.

    The alternative is too bleak for anyone to comprehend. A resurgence and another shutdown is in no ones interest and not worth any gamble for the sake of a couple of months careful unwinding.

    We need to keep focus on the bigger picture.

    There are multiple big pictures here. You need to be prudent about how much this is costing, how many businesses will close for good etc.

    Its not as simple as remaining shut while there is risk.


  • #26
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    AdamD wrote: »
    There are multiple big pictures here. You need to be prudent about how much this is costing, how many businesses will close for good etc.

    It's really not as bad as you think.

    It will be a hell of a lot worse if this is allowed take off again.


  • #27
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

    The alternative is too bleak for anyone to comprehend. A resurgence and another shutdown is in no ones interest and not worth any gamble for the sake of a couple of months careful unwinding.

    There is no evidence of this ‘bleak alternative’ in countries that have substantially released their lockdowns. The ‘gamble’ is looking less and less risky as time goes on


  • #28
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,822 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Stheno wrote: »
    I think in fairness to him, hindsight is a wonderful thing.

    1. Easing of restrictions across Europe has been happening for three weeks now and so far there appears to be no significant spike
    2. There appears to be a lot of data emerging suggesting that the virus has a certain lifespan in terms of peaking in a certain timeframe regardless of lockdown or not

    Still a very strong statement for him to make. The briefing tomorrow will be interesting if the journo actually take notice

    If the data supports earlier easing, it's probably good for the economy, I cant imagine he tweet what he did without getting it cleared first

    He does go on to say ''but in w/b 20 March, the number of people in ICU was doubling every 3.5 days, and 4214 new cases were detected. It was no time for half measures, or experiments''. So if anything backs up stance they took.

    I'm not sure how that conclusion about social distancing on its own could have worked be made, not as if there's a control group to compare the 2 responses to.


  • #29
    AdamD
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,720 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    It's really not as bad as you think.

    It will be a hell of a lot worse if this is allowed take off again.

    Jesus, every single one of your posts - which are opinions, you post as facts. Incredibly grating.


  • #30
    petes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,382 ✭✭✭petes


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    There is no evidence of this ‘bleak alternative’ in countries that have substantially released their lockdowns. The ‘gamble’ is looking less and less risky as time goes on

    Who all have substantially released their lockdowns and for what period of time?


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  • #31
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Deleted User wrote: »
    There is no evidence of this ‘bleak alternative’ in countries that have substantially released their lockdowns. The ‘gamble’ is looking less and less risky as time goes on

    My view you are better off looking to Autumn for the actual second wave.

    But also not enough time has passed in any country to gauge whether the first wave is properly suppressed.

    It will be a couple of weeks yet.


  • #32
    MipMap
    Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    My view you are better off looking to Autumn for the actual second wave.

    But also not enough time has passed in any country to gauge whether the first wave is properly suppressed.

    It will be a couple of weeks yet.


    It will be a couple of MONTHS yet


  • #33
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    MipMap wrote: »
    It will be a couple of MONTHS yet

    Aye and there is a lot of unwinding to be done in all countries.

    Eggshells.


  • #34
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    AirBnB laying off 1900 staff. 25% of their workforce.


  • #35
    D.Q
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,054 ✭✭✭D.Q


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    AirBnB laying off 1900 staff. 25% of their workforce.

    Good riddance


  • #36
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    AirBnB laying off 1900 staff. 25% of their workforce.

    Obviously sad when there are layoffs anywhere but there is sizeable opinion that the partial demise of Airbnb in this crisis is a silver lining particularly somewhere like Dublin.


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  • #37
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Eod100 wrote: »
    He does go on to say ''but in w/b 20 March, the number of people in ICU was doubling every 3.5 days, and 4214 new cases were detected. It was no time for half measures, or experiments''. So if anything backs up stance they took.

    I'm not sure how that conclusion about social distancing on its own could have worked be made, not as if there's a control group to compare the 2 responses to.

    I dont disagree with anything you say at all.

    It's the fact he made the statement prior to the BUT, that is frankly extremely surprising,given Tony Holohans statements thos evening about being conservative with the easing of restrictions

    Seems to me that differences in opinion are becoming divisive amongst the advisory group.

    On the Tonight show there was a professor of immunology on saying the easing plan is too conservative also


  • #38
    branie2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,305 ✭✭✭✭branie2


    Thanks for new thread.


  • #39
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Obviously sad when there are layoffs anywhere but there is sizeable opinion that the partial demise of Airbnb in this crisis is a silver lining particularly somewhere like Dublin.

    Several hundred employed in Dublin by Airbnb. Not sure who many of those will be made redundant.

    I imagine many Airbnb properties will come on the market for sale or rental now that tourism is stalled. Another factor that will push down Dublin house/apartment prices.


  • #40
    RugbyLad11
    Registered Users Posts: 547 ✭✭✭RugbyLad11


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Yes, the restrictions are still needed.

    No, the roadmap is prudent and will aid suppression well in to the summer.

    Less panic and doom mongering and more focus on the end goal. Suppression and recovery.

    The alternative is too bleak for anyone to comprehend. A resurgence and another shutdown is in no ones interest and not worth any gamble for the sake of a couple of months careful unwinding.

    We need to keep focus on the bigger picture.

    Austria says reopening shops has not accelerated coronavirus infections

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-austria/austria-says-reopening-shops-has-not-accelerated-coronavirus-infections-idUSKBN22H1HP


  • #41
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,822 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Stheno wrote: »
    I dont disagree with anything you say at all.

    It's the fact he made the statement prior to the BUT, that is frankly extremely surprising,given Tony Holohans statements thos evening about being conservative with the easing of restrictions

    Seems to me that differences in opinion are becoming divisive amongst the advisory group.

    On the Tonight show there was a professor of immunology on saying the easing plan is too conservative also

    I get you but its my understanding that the easing of restrictions is based on ICU availability as well as current number of cases and deaths. Would think the ICU capacity needs to adequate for a sudden spike in cases in case this happens when restrictions ease but also for other illnesses which may rise once the restrictions are eased.

    I think tbf Dr. Holohan has said in the past that he's only one member of NPHET and is willing to hear differing views. I think in the long-term its better that these are eased and can have less restrictions for longer period of time than say easing them too quickly and having to restrict again. Apart from public health reasons, I think it would be difficult to enforce further restrictions as people may get fed up if they are implemented for a second time.


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  • #42
    podgeandrodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,857 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    branie2 wrote: »
    Thanks for new thread.

    RIP to the old one. :pac:


  • #43
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    Stheno wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/otuathail/status/1257756820883615758?s=19

    And as well Philip Nolan, the head of the modelling team has tweeted saying one could argue social distancing may have been all that was necessary!

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1257729864993562624?s=19

    Eh, hello? Is there some massive backtrack on the cards to accelerate easing of restrictions?

    I would love to see the data backing up this assertion by Prof. Nolan. How do you model for an arbitrary distance that people may or may not adhere to in a population and map that to the clustering we've seen to date?

    The way I've seen things play out was that no one and I mean no one took this seriously until we were hit with 'lockdown' (i DETEST that word) measures. It changed the populations attitudes and responses dramatically.


  • #44
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 77,025 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    RugbyLad11 wrote: »
    Austria says reopening shops has not accelerated coronavirus infections

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-austria/austria-says-reopening-shops-has-not-accelerated-coronavirus-infections-idUSKBN22H1HP


    Then again, they have to wear masks.


  • #45
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    RugbyLad11 wrote: »
    Austria says reopening shops has not accelerated coronavirus infections

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-austria/austria-says-reopening-shops-has-not-accelerated-coronavirus-infections-idUSKBN22H1HP

    The Austrian government has also made the wearing of masks in many public areas compulsory. I suspect this is the reason why there has not been a large surge in new cases there so far anyway.


  • #46
    podgeandrodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,857 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    You'd be getting a sense that people are beginning to believe this virus might have a lifespan...

    The more we hear about the likes of Austria not suffering too much from loosening restrictions (though it didn't cover their most recent easing) will likely put pressure on other countries including our own to progress through the stages quicker.


  • #47
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    You'd be getting a sense that people are beginning to believe this virus might have a lifespan...

    The more we hear about the likes of Austria not suffering too much from loosening restrictions (though it didn't cover their most recent easing) will likely put pressure on other countries including our own to progress through the stages quicker.

    Lets say we reopened everything faster over the course of a few weeks. What if we get it wrong? Like there is still potential that this could spiral out of control before we even get halfway through "Phase 1". We are on the precipice of getting a handle things, it would be a terrible shame if we were to roll back again. The implications of another 6 to 8 weeks of what we've been doing to date would be devastating on every level. Is it worth that risk?

    I'm all for a conservative approach. It's logical.


  • #48
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    My view you are better off looking to Autumn for the actual second wave.

    But also not enough time has passed in any country to gauge whether the first wave is properly suppressed.

    It will be a couple of weeks yet.

    Stopped clock being right and all that eh?


  • #49
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Deleted User wrote: »
    There is no evidence of this ‘bleak alternative’ in countries that have substantially released their lockdowns. The ‘gamble’ is looking less and less risky as time goes on

    There is no example of a country worldwide that has substantially released a lockdown. So no, Singapore is the closest example(though it did not have a substantial release of lockdown, just an easeining of restrictions) and cases grew from 1,000 to 20,000 in three weeks


  • #50
    speckle
    Registered Users Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    Just imagining to myself how our hospitals and nursing homes and communitys would have looked like, without the restrictions/lockdown/reorganisation of things. Not pleasant to say the least.


  • #51
    podgeandrodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,857 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Miike wrote: »
    Lets say we reopened everything faster over the course of a few weeks. What if we get it wrong? Like there is still potential that this could spiral out of control before we even get halfway through "Phase 1". We are on the precipice of getting a handle things, it would be a terrible shame if we were to roll back again. The implications of another 6 to 8 weeks of what we've been doing to date would be devastating on every level. Is it worth that risk?

    I'm all for a conservative approach. It's logical.

    I don't disagree with you. But I think the pressure will come on the authorities to progress a little quicker. If we get it wrong, they have the ability to row back (already catered for in the current phase timelines).

    I think it's an important point that Austria mandated masks at the same time as relaxing restrictions, so perhaps one imposition alleviates another.


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