Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

Beasty

Can everyone pay attention to the mod warnings set out below. In particular please remain civil to each other

Thread I

Thread II

Thread III

Thread IV

Thread V

Thread VI

Thread VII

Thread VIII

Thread IX

Thread X

Thread XI

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Thread XIII

Thread XIV

Thread XV

Thread XVI

Mod warnings – I have condensed these given the size the OP has become, and some of the earlier warnings are now out of date

1. Please interact in a civil manner
2. Do not tell others what to do, or what to post
3. It is against site rules to seek or offer any medical advice. Please do not post here about your symptoms asking what to do. Contact your doctor by telephone and they can advise you as appropriate
4. If you have a problem with a post report it and leave the modding to the mods

In terms of thread content:

• Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
• Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
• Whatever your own views are please recognise others are entitled to different views., Even if at different extremes please do not try and repeatedly ram your views down the throats of those who have differing views
• Cut out any cover-up/conspiracy stuff. If you have a reliable source quote it (not just their words but provide a link to a reliable source) - otherwise your claims carry little if any weight. If you wish to discuss conspiracy theories we have a dedicated forum for that and it’s not this one
• If the likes of the HSE have a verified Twitter account we can assume what they post is accurate. Randomers on here or elsewhere cannot be considered "official" or "reliable" sources
• If people wish to flout the restriction rules that is up to them. They cannot complain at the consequences, be that direct action from the authorities, exposure in Social Media (not here) or being shunned by locals, friends, family etc. If they post about it here, or encourage others to flout the rules, trying to appear macho, or thinking they are above the rules or simply being a smart arse, posting privileges will be removed
• If you don't want to see discussion about Trump perhaps stay clear of this thread between the hours of 22:00 and 01:00. This is a thread for "breaking news" so please do not expect posters to discuss things happening "now" in other threads. It's not discouraged but equally posters expect to discuss such issues in this thread (added 14/04/20)

And now a maths lesson:
“Average” is a non-defined term. “Mean” and “Median” are both mathematically defined terms.
Mean = the sum of a series of numbers divided by the number of items in the series
Hence the Mean of 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 8 = (1+2+3+3+4+7+8)/7 = 4
Median is the midpoint number. In the above example it’s the 4th number in the sequence of 7 numbers – in this case 3
Both numbers are examples of “averages”. Not every average is the “Mean”, not every average is the “Median”, but every “Mean” and every “Median” number is an average

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Beasty

And now for the obligatory Chart

This one's from 30 October 1968

10. My Little Lady, The Tremeloes
9. Les Bicyclettes de Belsize, Englebert Humperdinck
8. Jesamine, Casuals
7. Hey Jude, the Beatles
6. Light my Fire, Jose Feliciano
5. Only One Woman, Marbles
4. Little Arrows, Leapy Lee
3. The Good the Bad and the Ugly, Hugo Montenegro
2. With a Little Help from my Friends, Joe Cocker

And at Number 1, Pop Pickers.....

Those were the days my friend
We thought they'd never end
We'd sing and dance forever and a day
We'd live the life we choose
We'd fight and never lose
For we were young and sure to have our way.
La la la la...
Those were the days, oh yes those were the days

Beasty

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Perhaps, just seems odd to me that this virus could have been circulating for 3 months with no noticeable clinical signal.

Bit like this thread - been here for 8 hours.....


:pac:

Stheno

Testing criteria relaxed no longer need to be in a priority group just sudden onset of symptoms

Also very low positive rate testing last week, think they said 3%

stephenjmcd

Stheno wrote: »

Testing criteria relaxed no longer need to be in a priority group just sudden onset of symptoms

Also very low positive rate testing last week, think they said 3%

Was that confirmed? I saw them saying they were looking to change it this week that anyone could get a test.

Interesting to see what numbers come through for tests in that case

omerin

Reporting on cnn that trump is considering winding down pence's task force at the end of the month. Focus for him now is getting the economy going, as if it wasnt always

Sending the wrong message to the masses

fr336

I've really realised what the Brits (well, English) stand for during this whole thing and it seems er not much. The amount of Tory journalists and "pundits" on Twitter tonight saying "Neil Ferguson has a lot to answer for" (the guy who predicted 500k UK deaths without a lockdown) is just bizarre. He does have a lot to answer for - without a lockdown, it could have been a human catastrophe. It's like living in a parallell dimension reading these clowns - they are addicted to wealth totally addicted. The English talk the talk but when push comes to shove all the countries they look down on were far better prepared for this and took it far more seriously with a far more mature approach. And hence they are second only to the US for the total failure on Coronavirus. And at least Trump didn't get it himself - that would just be embarrasing.

Eod100

omerin wrote: »

Reporting on cnn that trump is considering winding down pence's task force at the end of the month. Focus for him now is getting the economy going, as if it wasnt always

Sending the wrong message to the masses

They're treating it as if it's a war. Getting fed up and want to declare a victory contrary to all evidence otherwise.

s1ippy

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/

Interesting death statistics here.

More death notices have been posted on death notices' website RIP.ie in April 2020 for Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Meath, Louth, Cavan, and Monaghan than any other month from 2010 to present. In Carlow, Cork, and Kerry, the number of death notices in April 2020 is the highest number of postings in any April. Elsewhere in Ireland, the number of death notices posted is below previous maximums. However, it is the less densely populated and mainly rural border counties of Cavan and Monaghan that have been proportionally hardest hit. Twice as many death notices have been posted on RIP.ie in Cavan and Monaghan in April 2020 than for an average April.

Miike

s1ippy wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/

Interesting death statistics here.

May also be related to the fact not a lot of funerals happening and this is a way disseminating the fact someone has passed.

Stheno

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Was that confirmed? I saw them saying they were looking to change it this week that anyone could get a test.

Interesting to see what numbers come through for tests in that case

https://twitter.com/otuathail/status/1257756820883615758?s=19

And as well Philip Nolan, the head of the modelling team has tweeted saying one could argue social distancing may have been all that was necessary!

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1257729864993562624?s=19

Eh, hello? Is there some massive backtrack on the cards to accelerate easing of restrictions?

stephenjmcd

Stheno wrote: »

https://twitter.com/otuathail/status/1257756820883615758?s=19

And as well Philip Nolan, the head of the modelling team has tweeted saying one could argue social distancing may have been all that was necessary!

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1257729864993562624?s=19

Eh, hello? Is there some massive backtrack on the cards to accelerate easing of restrictions?

Excellent news regarding testing criteria.

That's some statement from Nolan also. Lockdown was necessary at the start but a protracted one continues now despite the head of modeling saying this?

MipMap

Stheno wrote: »

And as well Philip Nolan, the head of the modelling team has tweeted saying one could argue social distancing may have been all that was necessary!

i

kippy

Stheno wrote: »

https://twitter.com/otuathail/status/1257756820883615758?s=19

And as well Philip Nolan, the head of the modelling team has tweeted saying one could argue social distancing may have been all that was necessary!

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1257729864993562624?s=19

Eh, hello? Is there some massive backtrack on the cards to accelerate easing of restrictions?

Maybe a review of the variables, which is ongoing anyway.

kippy

kippy wrote: »

Maybe a review of the variables, which is ongoing anyway.

And the variables, especially re. no cancer screenings, no hospital appointments, the huge economic black hole, the massive unemployment, are shifting pretty massively one way

Kermit.de.frog

2,123 new deaths reported in the US so far today, which brings total to 72,044.

Jim_Hodge

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Excellent news regarding testing criteria.

That's some statement from Nolan also.

I think you're misreading the intent. "One can argue....BUT..."

Loozer

Eod100 wrote: »

They're treating it as if it's a war. Getting fed up and want to declare a victory contrary to all evidence otherwise.

The yanks do love to declare victory

stephenjmcd

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

I think you're misreading the intent. "One can argue....BUT..."

It's all in hindsight, they made the right call at the time no doubt, I just wonder if now restrictions could be loosed more if social distancing might have been enough.

Its understandably how they would be more cautious and follow the vast majority of other countries. If it was just social distancing and it went badly wrong then they would have been lynched

Stheno

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

I think you're misreading the intent. "One can argue....BUT..."

I think in fairness to him, hindsight is a wonderful thing.

1. Easing of restrictions across Europe has been happening for three weeks now and so far there appears to be no significant spike
2. There appears to be a lot of data emerging suggesting that the virus has a certain lifespan in terms of peaking in a certain timeframe regardless of lockdown or not

Still a very strong statement for him to make. The briefing tomorrow will be interesting if the journo actually take notice

If the data supports earlier easing, it's probably good for the economy, I cant imagine he tweet what he did without getting it cleared first

AdamD

It was undoubtedly the right decision at the time, the bigger question is whether the restrictions are still needed to the current extent, and whether the current road map is too spread out

MipMap

Stheno wrote: »

And as well Philip Nolan, the head of the modelling team has tweeted saying one could argue social distancing may have been all that was necessary!

Explaining the importance of proper respiratory etiquette.
Here's what he said a few days ago.
https://vimeo.com/415306647

And here is what he did 20 minutes earlier
https://vimeo.com/415306776
Rubs it in his elbow though - The one he should cough into.

Kermit.de.frog

AdamD wrote: »

It was undoubtedly the right decision at the time, the bigger question is whether the restrictions are still needed to the current extent, and whether the current road map is too spread out

Yes, the restrictions are still needed.

No, the roadmap is prudent and will aid suppression well in to the summer.

Less panic and doom mongering and more focus on the end goal. Suppression and recovery.

The alternative is too bleak for anyone to comprehend. A resurgence and another shutdown is in no ones interest and not worth any gamble for the sake of a couple of months careful unwinding.

We need to keep focus on the bigger picture.

podgeandrodge

AdamD wrote: »

It was undoubtedly the right decision at the time, the bigger question is whether the restrictions are still needed to the current extent, and whether the current road map is too spread out

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes, the restrictions are still needed.

No, the roadmap is prudent and will aid suppression well in to the summer.

Well I hadn't been totally convinced Kermit, and was waiting to hear some more facts and figures on this, but thanks for deciding for us anyway. Hope you let Leo & co know, we wouldn't want them re-evaluating anything!

AdamD

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes, the restrictions are still needed.

No, the roadmap is prudent and will aid suppression well in to the summer.

Less panic and doom mongering and more focus on the end goal. Suppression and recovery.

The alternative is too bleak for anyone to comprehend. A resurgence and another shutdown is in no ones interest and not worth any gamble for the sake of a couple of months careful unwinding.

We need to keep focus on the bigger picture.

There are multiple big pictures here. You need to be prudent about how much this is costing, how many businesses will close for good etc.

Its not as simple as remaining shut while there is risk.

Kermit.de.frog

AdamD wrote: »

There are multiple big pictures here. You need to be prudent about how much this is costing, how many businesses will close for good etc.

It's really not as bad as you think.

It will be a hell of a lot worse if this is allowed take off again.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The alternative is too bleak for anyone to comprehend. A resurgence and another shutdown is in no ones interest and not worth any gamble for the sake of a couple of months careful unwinding.

There is no evidence of this ‘bleak alternative’ in countries that have substantially released their lockdowns. The ‘gamble’ is looking less and less risky as time goes on

Eod100

Stheno wrote: »

I think in fairness to him, hindsight is a wonderful thing.

1. Easing of restrictions across Europe has been happening for three weeks now and so far there appears to be no significant spike
2. There appears to be a lot of data emerging suggesting that the virus has a certain lifespan in terms of peaking in a certain timeframe regardless of lockdown or not

Still a very strong statement for him to make. The briefing tomorrow will be interesting if the journo actually take notice

If the data supports earlier easing, it's probably good for the economy, I cant imagine he tweet what he did without getting it cleared first

He does go on to say ''but in w/b 20 March, the number of people in ICU was doubling every 3.5 days, and 4214 new cases were detected. It was no time for half measures, or experiments''. So if anything backs up stance they took.

I'm not sure how that conclusion about social distancing on its own could have worked be made, not as if there's a control group to compare the 2 responses to.

AdamD

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's really not as bad as you think.

It will be a hell of a lot worse if this is allowed take off again.

Jesus, every single one of your posts - which are opinions, you post as facts. Incredibly grating.

petes

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is no evidence of this ‘bleak alternative’ in countries that have substantially released their lockdowns. The ‘gamble’ is looking less and less risky as time goes on

Who all have substantially released their lockdowns and for what period of time?

Kermit.de.frog

Deleted User wrote: »

There is no evidence of this ‘bleak alternative’ in countries that have substantially released their lockdowns. The ‘gamble’ is looking less and less risky as time goes on

My view you are better off looking to Autumn for the actual second wave.

But also not enough time has passed in any country to gauge whether the first wave is properly suppressed.

It will be a couple of weeks yet.