Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

Inquitus

UK's CFR is among the very highest in the world at 15.09%, this implies they have drastically undertested, if we use a CFR for COVID as 1%, it is probably less, but for ease of maths, then the UK has at least 15x as many cases as positive tests.

El Weirdo

DOCARCH wrote: »

Foot and Mouth Disease.

I didn't realise that disinfected mats were so effective at keeping people out of the country.

ek motor

'As more states reopen, draft report projects 3,000 daily coronavirus deaths by June' - Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/government-report-predicts-covid-19-cases-will-reach-200000-a-day-by-june-1/2020/05/04/02fe743e-8e27-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html

Away With The Fairies

caveat emptor wrote: »

Knock on from a different virus circulating in China.




https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-30/mass-chinese-pig-deaths-cause-short-supply-of-u-s-blood-thinner

Lovely, and clots can happen with Covid19.

Kermit.de.frog

Arghus wrote: »

Jacinda Ardern made reference to Ireland's slow potential steps because we don't have the enviable position that NZ have: no new cases and eradicated community transmission.

When she said that some countries are "taking ages" it's not chastising those countries and wondering why they aren't getting a move on with emerging from lockdown. She's pointing out that NZ's approach - aiming for elimination of the virus - is actually more effective in the medium term and enables an economy/social activity to resume again on the other side far quicker and in more robust health than it would have otherwise.

But, typically, the usual ejits are assuming that's someone slagging off Ireland.

You can't compare New Zealand to anywhere else.

It's one of the world's most isolated countries.

Much easier for them.

Inquitus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You can't compare New Zealand to anywhere else.

It's one of the world's most isolated countries.

Much easier for them.

Indeed, no comparison whatsoever.

ZX7R

DOCARCH wrote: »

Foot and Mouth Disease.

Our borders were never closed during foot and mouth,we had check points yes to stop the transportation and importing of live animals without documentation.

caveat emptor

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You can't compare New Zealand to anywhere else.

It's one of the world's most isolated countries.

Much easier for them.

Not entirely true. Taking the things we can compare.

• They stopped flights -> We didn't. Still haven't.
• They locked down when there were much less cases -> we didn't.
• They instituted a stricter lockdown that didn't involve opening suprmacs -> we didn't.

All borders and entry ports of New Zealand were closed to all non-residents at 11:59 pm on 19 March 2020, with returning citizens and residents being required to self-isolate. Since 10 April, all New Zealanders returning from overseas must go into two weeks of supervised quarantine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_Zealand

"I make no apologies. This is an unprecedented time," Ms Ardern said, describing the new rules as the strictest in the world.

Can't see the difference at all really.

caveat emptor

Yeah let's not misremember what actually happened.

In a dramatic escalation of the fight to contain COVID-19, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has closed her country's borders for the first time in New Zealand's history.

Only Kiwi citizens, permanent residents and their family members will be allowed to enter the country during the ban.

The decision takes effect from 11:59pm on Thursday, and will be reviewed at the end of the month.

New Zealand has 28 cases of the disease, all of which have come from travellers returning from overseas.

https://www.portstephensexaminer.com.au/story/6687352/nz-joins-australia-in-closing-borders/?cs=12

rovers_runner

When we look back on this in a years time I wonder in hindsight what will be the things that bring the most resentment out in people.
We have a hell of a lot to choose from now which were the FG caretaker Govts doing.....



- €350 parachute payment which created a huge hole in public finances on top of the uncontrollable factors (slowdown in trade/economy, Health costs)

- Closure of schools for months longer than was required (Sept opening rather than late May or early June)

- Prematurely deferring the leaving cert (set in motion the problems with planning and lead to outright cancellation)

- Cocooning the over 65s for a period longer than was beneficial leading to other health or well being issues down the line

- Paying the private hospitals for space they are not using in an effort to eventually draw them into a partnership which will end up having the majority of the public pay on the double for healthcare (taxes to fund partnership and health insurance to cover private options)



Measures we will have to face or implement as a result:

- Massive tax increases on the working to cover the €350 payment

- Increase in 3rd level fees to cover lost revenues

- Hospital overcrowding in Winter 2020/Spring 2021 with winter volumes plus rescheduled appointments and also delayed diagnosis cases.

- Private hospitals holding new Govt to ransom over space and consultant time.

quokula

caveat emptor wrote: »

Not entirely true. Taking the things we can compare.

• They stopped flights -> We didn't. Still haven't.
• They locked down when there were much less cases -> we didn't.
• They instituted a stricter lockdown that didn't involve opening suprmacs -> we didn't.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_Zealand




Can't see the difference at all really.

It's an awful lot easier to do when the nearest population centre (Sydney) to your country is a four hour flight over open ocean - and even once you get there you're still relatively remote to the rest of the world.

Within 4 hours of Ireland there are hundreds of millions of people, mostly in countries with whom we have had completely open borders with for decades, one of whom we have a completely open land border with, and all of whom share many immigrants and emigrants along with a great many holiday makers who needed to get home in either direction.

It's like comparing a hermit living up a mountain to three generations living in the same household on a city centre housing estate. Of course one of them is going to get through this particular situation better, but it doesn't necessarily mean the other has made bad decisions to be where they are.

eagle eye

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

You can't compare New Zealand to anywhere else.
It's one of the world's most isolated countries.
Much easier for them.

Well you can compare as in you can look at their response to it and what they did and see if you can apply some of their measures to improve things in your country. Same as looking at the Czech Republic and what they did.

Wombatman

Stheno wrote: »

https://twitter.com/otuathail/status/1257756820883615758?s=19

And as well Philip Nolan, the head of the modelling team has tweeted saying one could argue social distancing may have been all that was necessary!

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1257729864993562624?s=19

Eh, hello? Is there some massive backtrack on the cards to accelerate easing of restrictions?

Nolan is saying it could be argued but it would be a crap argument.

Re. The Imperial College. They have may models. Nolan's team probably using something very similar to the 4 models referenced here. Ireland's reproduction number looking pretty good in model 2.

https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/index.html

dfx-

Arghus wrote: »

Fair enough, but in this instance I was trying to point out that people were inferring she was having a bit of laugh at Ireland's expense, which wasn't really what she was doing.

Apologies, it was meant as a more general point:)

caveat emptor wrote: »

Not entirely true. Taking the things we can compare.

• They stopped flights -> We didn't. Still haven't.
• They locked down when there were much less cases -> we didn't.
• They instituted a stricter lockdown that didn't involve opening suprmacs -> we didn't.

You can't just pick and choose what to compare.

gabeeg

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You can't compare New Zealand to anywhere else.

It's one of the world's most isolated countries.

Much easier for them.

You can compare the preparations made and the speed of response.

And NZ were much, much better on both of those fronts.

caveat emptor

quokula wrote: »

It's an awful lot easier to do when the nearest population centre (Sydney) to your country is a four hour flight over open ocean - and even once you get there you're still relatively remote to the rest of the world.

Within 4 hours of Ireland there are hundreds of millions of people, mostly in countries with whom we have had completely open borders with for decades, one of whom we have a completely open land border with, and all of whom share many immigrants and emigrants along with a great many holiday makers who needed to get home in either direction.

It's like comparing a hermit living up a mountain to three generations living in the same household on a city centre housing estate. Of course one of them is going to get through this particular situation better, but it doesn't necessarily mean the other has made bad decisions to be where they are.

Who couldn't get here if we had closed the border to people not goods. Seriously why is it so hard to fathom?

They did it (for the first time in their history) -> We didn't.

What don't you get?

rovers_runner

rovers_runner wrote: »

When we look back on this in a years time I wonder in hindsight what will be the things that bring the most resentment out in people.
We have a hell of a lot to choose from now which we the FG caretaker Govts doing.....



- €350 parachute payment which created a huge hole in public finances on top of the uncontrollable factors (slowdown in trade/economy, Health costs)

- Closure of schools for months longer than was required (Sept opening rather than late May or early June)

- Prematurely deferring the leaving cert (set in motion the problems with planning and lead to outright cancellation)

- Cocooning the over 65s for a period longer than was beneficial leading to other health or well being issues down the line

- Paying the private hospitals for space they are not using in an effort to eventually draw them into a partnership which will end up having the majority of the public pay on the double for healthcare (taxes to fund partnership and health insurance to cover private options)



Measures we will have to face or implement as a result:

- Massive tax increases on the working to cover the €350 payment

- Increase in 3rd level fees to cover lost revenues

- Hospital overcrowding in Winter 2020/Spring 2021 with winter volumes plus rescheduled appointments and also delayed diagnosis cases.

- Private hospitals holding new Govt to ransom over space and consultant time.

If the government has any sense there will be no tax increases for the next 2 years at least. They have been given the green light by the ECB to print money. As long as we maintain productive capacity in the economy, there is no need whatsoever to increase taxes in the short to medium term.
Print money, invest in capital infrastructure, housing, childcare and interest free loans to keep businesses afloat and the tax will take care of itself.

https://www.ft.com/content/ea25934a-7b28-11ea-af44-daa3def9ae03

caveat emptor

dfx- wrote: »

Apologies, it was meant as a more general point:)



You can't just pick and choose what to compare.

I just did. Deal with it.

Kermit.de.frog

Belgium reports 323 new deaths which would make that their highest daily toll since, I think, the 19th of April.

The country has suffered a lot but at least they have been straight from the start with their reporting of deaths in environments outside hospitals. Particularly compared to some other countries we could mention!

cnocbui

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You can't compare New Zealand to anywhere else.

It's one of the world's most isolated countries.

Much easier for them.

Yes you can. Both islands surrounded by water. It makes not the slightest difference whether the flight time needed to reach anywhere else is 4 hours or one hour, the point is you have geographical border control and can close them at will.

In one way you are right though - Cheltenham - wouldn't have been allowed to happen in NZ, even if it had been the Melbourne Cup.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Who couldn't get here if we had closed the border to people not goods. Seriously why is it so hard to fathom?

They did it (for the first time in their history) -> We didn't.

What don't you get?

When should we have closed borders? There were likely hundreds or possibly thousands of people with the virus here prior to March 1st. New Zealand did not close until March 19th, and the numbers of people arriving here after this date was minuscule.

kegblag

caveat emptor wrote: »

Not entirely true.

It's not entirely true that NZ is one of the worlds most isolated countries????

Surely it is entirely true?

What similar sized populations are more isolated out of interest?

Christy42

rovers_runner wrote: »

When we look back on this in a years time I wonder in hindsight what will be the things that bring the most resentment out in people.
We have a hell of a lot to choose from now which were the FG caretaker Govts doing.....



- €350 parachute payment which created a huge hole in public finances on top of the uncontrollable factors (slowdown in trade/economy, Health costs)

- Closure of schools for months longer than was required (Sept opening rather than late May or early June)

- Prematurely deferring the leaving cert (set in motion the problems with planning and lead to outright cancellation)

- Cocooning the over 65s for a period longer than was beneficial leading to other health or well being issues down the line

- Paying the private hospitals for space they are not using in an effort to eventually draw them into a partnership which will end up having the majority of the public pay on the double for healthcare (taxes to fund partnership and health insurance to cover private options)



Measures we will have to face or implement as a result:

- Massive tax increases on the working to cover the €350 payment

- Increase in 3rd level fees to cover lost revenues

- Hospital overcrowding in Winter 2020/Spring 2021 with winter volumes plus rescheduled appointments and also delayed diagnosis cases.

- Private hospitals holding new Govt to ransom over space and consultant time.

I imagine the dead people. Definitely the numbers who have died. We haven't done badly but we are not a world leader either in all of this and I see no reason for Ireland not to be aiming at that. Check out Denmark, Germany NZ etc. We don't have to do the same but the ball park would be good. You can point to countries that did worse such as the UK but I feel like we should be striving to ensure we do better if it happens again. I agree that NZ has advantages we don't. However we may still be able to learn from them to improve.

350 ain't a terrible increase. There won't need to be a massive tax hike. Not sure too many care about the leaving cert being moved except the students and I imagine most of them will get over it.

I am not sure staying in your house for an extra week has a massive effect on your well being. I mean sure across the full period I can see loneliness but the extra time that wasn't required is minimal and I feel most people want to be safe than sorry.

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

When should we have closed borders? There were likely hundreds or possibly thousands of people with the virus here prior to March 1st. New Zealand did not close until March 19th, and the numbers of people arriving here after this date was minuscule.

Large majority were Irish citizens returning home.

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

If the government has any sense there will be no tax increases for the next 2 years at least. They have been given the green light by the ECB to print money. As long as we maintain productive capacity in the economy, there is no need whatsoever to increase taxes in the short to medium term.
Print money, invest in capital infrastructure, housing, childcare and interest free loans to keep businesses afloat and the tax will take care of itself.

https://www.ft.com/content/ea25934a-7b28-11ea-af44-daa3def9ae03

Let's hope. If they want more money just means test the child allowance and stop paying it to people on good incomes who don't need it.

cnocbui

kegblag wrote: »

It's not entirely true that NZ is one of the worlds most isolated countries????

Surely it is entirely true?

What similar sized populations are more isolated out of interest?

Australia.

gabeeg

Deleted User wrote: »

When should we have closed borders? There were likely hundreds or possibly thousands of people with the virus here prior to March 1st. New Zealand did not close until March 19th, and the numbers of people arriving here after this date was minuscule.

They basically stopped flights from China on the 3rd of Feb.

quokula

eagle eye wrote: »

Well you can compare as in you can look at their response to it and what they did and see if you can apply some of their measures to improve things in your country. Same as looking at the Czech Republic and what they did.

The country we have a land border with has hundreds of thousands of cases, the next closest countries to us are also amongst the worst affected in the world. How exactly is it possible we could cope in the same way as an island in the middle of the pacific that is thousands of miles away from any severely affected country?

Close all the borders, abandon the thousands of Irish citizens all over Europe. Militarise the border with the north, at a time early enough to stop the virus (which we now know was in Europe in December), which means the public certainly wouldn't support it and who knows what reactions there might have been from the more unsavoury elements up there.

Then you somehow achieve that, without impacting any of our supply chains which are entirely built around open borders with Europe and the UK, then somehow we can just return to normal now despite there still being hundreds of thousands of cases all around us?

Do you really think it's a complete coincidence that the government that coped best with this virus also happens to be in the country most isolated from the rest of the world? A complete coincidence?

It's a complete coincidence that Italy, Spain, France and the UK have all been severely affected due entirely to policy, despite their mix of political systems, of left and right wing governments and of different cultures, and nothing to do with their geographical proximity?

There are countries that are doing well. Germany, Austria, Portugal, Ireland. We're not completely unaffected but we're keeping the damage to a minimum despite being located near ground zero. Being New Zealand was never going to be possible and anyone with the slightest bit of intelligence can see that.

quokula

gabeeg wrote: »

They basically stopped flights from China on the 3rd of Feb.

We also had no flights from China at that point...

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

Let's hope. If they want more money just means test the child allowance and stop paying it to people on good incomes who don't need it.

While not called a tax increase, that is in fact a tax increase by another name