Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

MipMap

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

My view you are better off looking to Autumn for the actual second wave.

But also not enough time has passed in any country to gauge whether the first wave is properly suppressed.

It will be a couple of weeks yet.

It will be a couple of MONTHS yet

Kermit.de.frog

MipMap wrote: »

It will be a couple of MONTHS yet

Aye and there is a lot of unwinding to be done in all countries.

Eggshells.

Snow Garden

AirBnB laying off 1900 staff. 25% of their workforce.

D.Q

Snow Garden wrote: »

AirBnB laying off 1900 staff. 25% of their workforce.

Good riddance

Kermit.de.frog

Snow Garden wrote: »

AirBnB laying off 1900 staff. 25% of their workforce.

Obviously sad when there are layoffs anywhere but there is sizeable opinion that the partial demise of Airbnb in this crisis is a silver lining particularly somewhere like Dublin.

Stheno

Eod100 wrote: »

He does go on to say ''but in w/b 20 March, the number of people in ICU was doubling every 3.5 days, and 4214 new cases were detected. It was no time for half measures, or experiments''. So if anything backs up stance they took.

I'm not sure how that conclusion about social distancing on its own could have worked be made, not as if there's a control group to compare the 2 responses to.

I dont disagree with anything you say at all.

It's the fact he made the statement prior to the BUT, that is frankly extremely surprising,given Tony Holohans statements thos evening about being conservative with the easing of restrictions

Seems to me that differences in opinion are becoming divisive amongst the advisory group.

On the Tonight show there was a professor of immunology on saying the easing plan is too conservative also

branie2

Thanks for new thread.

Snow Garden

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Obviously sad when there are layoffs anywhere but there is sizeable opinion that the partial demise of Airbnb in this crisis is a silver lining particularly somewhere like Dublin.

Several hundred employed in Dublin by Airbnb. Not sure who many of those will be made redundant.

I imagine many Airbnb properties will come on the market for sale or rental now that tourism is stalled. Another factor that will push down Dublin house/apartment prices.

RugbyLad11

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes, the restrictions are still needed.

No, the roadmap is prudent and will aid suppression well in to the summer.

Less panic and doom mongering and more focus on the end goal. Suppression and recovery.

The alternative is too bleak for anyone to comprehend. A resurgence and another shutdown is in no ones interest and not worth any gamble for the sake of a couple of months careful unwinding.

We need to keep focus on the bigger picture.

Austria says reopening shops has not accelerated coronavirus infections

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-austria/austria-says-reopening-shops-has-not-accelerated-coronavirus-infections-idUSKBN22H1HP

Eod100

Stheno wrote: »

I dont disagree with anything you say at all.

It's the fact he made the statement prior to the BUT, that is frankly extremely surprising,given Tony Holohans statements thos evening about being conservative with the easing of restrictions

Seems to me that differences in opinion are becoming divisive amongst the advisory group.

On the Tonight show there was a professor of immunology on saying the easing plan is too conservative also

I get you but its my understanding that the easing of restrictions is based on ICU availability as well as current number of cases and deaths. Would think the ICU capacity needs to adequate for a sudden spike in cases in case this happens when restrictions ease but also for other illnesses which may rise once the restrictions are eased.

I think tbf Dr. Holohan has said in the past that he's only one member of NPHET and is willing to hear differing views. I think in the long-term its better that these are eased and can have less restrictions for longer period of time than say easing them too quickly and having to restrict again. Apart from public health reasons, I think it would be difficult to enforce further restrictions as people may get fed up if they are implemented for a second time.

podgeandrodge

branie2 wrote: »

Thanks for new thread.

RIP to the old one. :pac:

Miike

Stheno wrote: »

https://twitter.com/otuathail/status/1257756820883615758?s=19

And as well Philip Nolan, the head of the modelling team has tweeted saying one could argue social distancing may have been all that was necessary!

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1257729864993562624?s=19

Eh, hello? Is there some massive backtrack on the cards to accelerate easing of restrictions?

I would love to see the data backing up this assertion by Prof. Nolan. How do you model for an arbitrary distance that people may or may not adhere to in a population and map that to the clustering we've seen to date?

The way I've seen things play out was that no one and I mean no one took this seriously until we were hit with 'lockdown' (i DETEST that word) measures. It changed the populations attitudes and responses dramatically.

New Home

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

Austria says reopening shops has not accelerated coronavirus infections

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-austria/austria-says-reopening-shops-has-not-accelerated-coronavirus-infections-idUSKBN22H1HP

Then again, they have to wear masks.

Cork Boy 53

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

Austria says reopening shops has not accelerated coronavirus infections

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-austria/austria-says-reopening-shops-has-not-accelerated-coronavirus-infections-idUSKBN22H1HP

The Austrian government has also made the wearing of masks in many public areas compulsory. I suspect this is the reason why there has not been a large surge in new cases there so far anyway.

podgeandrodge

You'd be getting a sense that people are beginning to believe this virus might have a lifespan...

The more we hear about the likes of Austria not suffering too much from loosening restrictions (though it didn't cover their most recent easing) will likely put pressure on other countries including our own to progress through the stages quicker.

Miike

podgeandrodge wrote: »

You'd be getting a sense that people are beginning to believe this virus might have a lifespan...

The more we hear about the likes of Austria not suffering too much from loosening restrictions (though it didn't cover their most recent easing) will likely put pressure on other countries including our own to progress through the stages quicker.

Lets say we reopened everything faster over the course of a few weeks. What if we get it wrong? Like there is still potential that this could spiral out of control before we even get halfway through "Phase 1". We are on the precipice of getting a handle things, it would be a terrible shame if we were to roll back again. The implications of another 6 to 8 weeks of what we've been doing to date would be devastating on every level. Is it worth that risk?

I'm all for a conservative approach. It's logical.

Plumbthedepths

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

My view you are better off looking to Autumn for the actual second wave.

But also not enough time has passed in any country to gauge whether the first wave is properly suppressed.

It will be a couple of weeks yet.

Stopped clock being right and all that eh?

wakka12

Deleted User wrote: »

There is no evidence of this ‘bleak alternative’ in countries that have substantially released their lockdowns. The ‘gamble’ is looking less and less risky as time goes on

There is no example of a country worldwide that has substantially released a lockdown. So no, Singapore is the closest example(though it did not have a substantial release of lockdown, just an easeining of restrictions) and cases grew from 1,000 to 20,000 in three weeks

speckle

Just imagining to myself how our hospitals and nursing homes and communitys would have looked like, without the restrictions/lockdown/reorganisation of things. Not pleasant to say the least.

podgeandrodge

Miike wrote: »

Lets say we reopened everything faster over the course of a few weeks. What if we get it wrong? Like there is still potential that this could spiral out of control before we even get halfway through "Phase 1". We are on the precipice of getting a handle things, it would be a terrible shame if we were to roll back again. The implications of another 6 to 8 weeks of what we've been doing to date would be devastating on every level. Is it worth that risk?

I'm all for a conservative approach. It's logical.

I don't disagree with you. But I think the pressure will come on the authorities to progress a little quicker. If we get it wrong, they have the ability to row back (already catered for in the current phase timelines).

I think it's an important point that Austria mandated masks at the same time as relaxing restrictions, so perhaps one imposition alleviates another.

MipMap

New Home wrote: »

Then again, they have to wear masks.

Yes but they don't work.
At least they didn't 2 weeks ago.
Now they do, well, a little bit anyway , because "new science" is "emerging."


A week Later

OK now they are an important measure but not as important as social distancing and hand washing. And it's important here! we are Talking about "face coverings". N95 masks continue to be useless.



Wonder what they will be next week.
"A Vital Tool" maybe ?

podgeandrodge

speckle wrote: »

Just imaging to myself how our hospitals and nursing homes and communitys would have looked like, without the restrictions/lockdown/reorganisation of things. Not pleasant to say the least.

But as has been said, we can't know what the position would have been had it been contained to social distancing i.e. had some businesses, that were able to properly implement distancing, been allowed to stay open. Perhaps the main impact on flattening the curve was social distancing rather than the rest of the lockdown measures...

speckle

podgeandrodge wrote: »

But as has been said, we can't know what the position would have been had it been contained to social distancing i.e. had some businesses, that were able to properly implement distancing, been allowed to stay open. Perhaps the main impact on flattening the curve was social distancing rather than the rest of the lockdown measures...

Possibly but those images from Italy spain New york hubei etc keep coming to mind. And I do think a % of people where already distancing themselves here before the restrictions. Need more investigation of the data before we can conclude one way or the other.

MipMap

podgeandrodge wrote: »

But as has been said, we can't know what the position would have been had it been contained to social distancing i.e. had some businesses, that were able to properly implement distancing, been allowed to stay open. Perhaps the main impact on flattening the curve was social distancing rather than the rest of the lockdown measures...

Here's how I read it.
They didn't care about confirmed cases.
They didn't care about the tests backlog.
They didn't even care about the deaths.(they did not have this luxury)

They cared about hospitalized patients.
And They were sh1tting themselves about ICU cases.

20% of those who get this are hospitalized. We saw and heard what Boris Johnson had to say and he never even got to go on a ventilator. He would have died without the care he received.


If 20% of our cases had not got a hospital system to go to most of them would have probably died and that is what scared the sh1te out of them and rightly so.

Christy42

US and UK deaths back up again. Not surprising but sad to see. The EU seem to be doing well. Belgium has gone down massively. They were aggressively counting cases and deaths though so maybe that helped. Having the UK on our doorstep and a major trading party is a worry.

Hopefully reopening in Europe goes well and we can safely follow suit soon.

Stheno

Miike wrote: »

I would love to see the data backing up this assertion by Prof. Nolan. How do you model for an arbitrary distance that people may or may not adhere to in a population and map that to the clustering we've seen to date?

The way I've seen things play out was that no one and I mean no one took this seriously until we were hit with 'lockdown' (i DETEST that word) measures. It changed the populations attitudes and responses dramatically.

On your first point, I have to agree, I'd love to know what prompted him to tweet what he did and how they modelled. Did they use the now discredited Imperial Coege model?

On your second, I'd disagree on two points. I work in a global company with a sizable presence in China. We were subject to travel bans from January and bombarded with information about hand hygiene etc from that point on with weekly updates, and in the case of IT where I work, a huge amount of planning for continuity.

Visitors were banned from our office in February and hand shaking etc were forbidden. We were aware of cases in partner offices in parts of Asia also and saw the impact. As a result, I did some research and did a bit of extra shopping in case myself or the OH got sick. My OH laughed at the time though, he thought I was paranoid.he is now shocked at how it panned out and has said to me multiple times that if I had not drilled it home, he wouldn't have taken it seriously

Secondly my neighbours are in their 70s and the man of the house has multiple underlying conditions

They've been cocooning since late Feb after he came back from Thailand at the end of January and have taken it very seriously

So that might be a minority but they are out there

kaymin

wakka12 wrote: »

There is no example of a country worldwide that has substantially released a lockdown. So no, Singapore is the closest example(though it did not have a substantial release of lockdown, just an easeining of restrictions) and cases grew from 1,000 to 20,000 in three weeks

That increase was concentrated in the migrant community where they live in cramped conditions where keeping a social distance is next to impossible. Singapore's experience doesn't mean social distancing alone is an inadequate response.

speckle

"Ethnocide by Inaction"

https://nonperele.com/ecuador-indigenous-community-fears-extinction-from-covid-19/

wakka12

Christy42 wrote: »

US and UK deaths back up again. Not surprising but sad to see. The EU seem to be doing well. Belgium has gone down massively. They were aggressively counting cases and deaths though so maybe that helped. Having the UK on our doorstep and a major trading party is a worry.

Hopefully reopening in Europe goes well and we can safely follow suit soon.

Deaths in Belgium remain very high for the size of the country though, still reporting far higher number of daily deaths per capita than Spain France or Italy

If Belgium was the same size as Italy or France it would be topping 50,000 deaths in the next day or two. Even when taking into account the fact they are counting probable and nursing home deaths its likely still the highest number per capita in Europe

threeball

Sweden are now claiming they'll achieve herd immunity in stockholm in a month. Sounds like complete BS given the numbers they are giving for cases and deaths.