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FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

1911131415

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Live in hope! At least FI is giving us something to smile about and dream about :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 778 ✭✭✭Kingswood Rover


    yep it has to balance out eventually have not had a snowy easterly here in Kilcullen in 5 years


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    yep it has to balance out eventually have not had a snowy easterly here in Kilcullen in 5 years

    not even in March 2013?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Still there on the 18Z GFS, but this time it's southern England that gets battered.

    192-515UK_dhx1.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 778 ✭✭✭Kingswood Rover


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    not even in March 2013?
    Jaysus must have been a poor one if i cannot remember it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Big 1050 mb high building on ECM days 5 to 10, north of Norway and drifting slowly southwest. Could start to become a player in about ten days if it really develops that way. If it links through to the Azores high then the Atlantic will get shut down.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    Big 1050 mb high building on ECM days 5 to 10, north of Norway and drifting slowly southwest. Could start to become a player in about ten days if it really develops that way. If it links through to the Azores high then the Atlantic will get shut down.

    Ireland is SW of Norway
    If it becomes a big flabby low that sinks over us there will be no cold but there will be a welcome drying and respite from the floods


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Also the last few runs GFS has kept an eastern Scandi /Russian high in play where a few days ago it was being pushed right back to central Russia.

    Its very cold here in Southern Poland, Currently -14c at 11am. Had -19c last few nights too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    373640.png

    22846806.jpg


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,141 ✭✭✭Stealthfins


    Hi guys and ladies,where do I find these charts,I'm gaining more of an interest in charts.

    Is there a website I can follow


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Iancar29 wrote: »

    22846806.jpg

    Yes, finally daycent stuff to flip through on the model outputs and loads of winter left. I see openings for an evolution toward cold weather now on both GFS and ECM, coming at the right point too, deepest winter. Definitely some interest today, hopefully we will see the trend of Greenland height rises, and the halting of the Atlantic train, that is so apparent in the GFS extended set this morning continue. This of course doesn't mean it's going to snow, but the odds have to be shortening on some wintry weather. All eyes down for this evening's outputs!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Hi guys and ladies,where do I find these charts,I'm gaining more of an interest in charts.

    Is there a website I can follow

    www.meteociel.fr is a good one.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    Hi guys and ladies,where do I find these charts,I'm gaining more of an interest in charts.

    Is there a website I can follow

    This thread should have just about everything/anything you are looking for. I haven't been through it in a while to check that all the links are still working but there are some good websites there for charts under the "Models" heading.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056531638


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 537 ✭✭✭clever user name


    12z GFS goes completely pear-shaped towards the end of the run. Way in FI though, the potential is still there. Will probably be completely different again for the next run. Interested to see what the ECM throws up.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    By the latest runs dont see anything stormy out to 192hr. That big low that forms around the 7th seems to stall well off to the west untill it pushes in over Ireland around the 10th /11th as it fills.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Big 1050 mb high building on ECM days 5 to 10, north of Norway and drifting slowly southwest. Could start to become a player in about ten days if it really develops that way. If it links through to the Azores high then the Atlantic will get shut down.

    Well John Hammond on BBC said that the computer models are agreeing and next week, it will turn notably colder and drier! Now this gives me a big happy smile :D;):):):):):):)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Well John Hammond on BBC said that the computer models are agreeing and next week, it will turn notably colder and drier! Now this gives me a big happy smile :D;):):):):):):)

    Saw that weather report, interesting seeing the Arctic High Pressure build and the effects of that big low pressure which will move in off the Atlantic towards the end of the week and will possibly push into Europe and possibly pull down that cold air from the NW that has been long awaited. Mention of the Jet staying south ( I see on the charts untill at least the 13th) and can see the Azores high build that MT spoke of so looks like things might be happening at last to curtail the almost endless rain.

    Could I ask to those in the know to explain further the interaction between the Polar High and the Azores High in keeping the Atlantic stable, is it to do with the clockwise direction of the flow on both that would keep both in motion ( as if locked together ) and more or less stationary?

    Cn6QoKN.png

    VJUDORx.gif

    RyBwzbe.png

    yAVaEK9.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,266 ✭✭✭✭km79


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Well John Hammond on BBC said that the computer models are agreeing and next week, it will turn notably colder and drier! Now this gives me a big happy smile :D;):):):):):):)

    Cold and DRY you say
    Yes sir I'll have some of that please


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Cold is still FI tho, as stated above it will favour NW (not that i'd be grudge any county(ies) of snow)

    h850t850eu.png

    The low pressure stagnates over Scotland for 2 days and then 2 more in the north sea (according to GFS 18z).
    It's the sort of setup where 50 miles her or there means snow or rain. Interesting to watch. If the feature off the coast of Norway in the model above doesn't develop, we could tap into some Scandinavian cold a lot faster.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    This just sums up an Irish winter

    gfs-1-300.png?12?12


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 537 ✭✭✭clever user name


    Nabber wrote: »
    This just sums up an Irish winter

    gfs-1-300.png?12?12

    Well into FI, but most of the models starting to look like that. High pressure never makes it up to Greenland, just topples back over us. Models are chopping and changing though so still a glimmer of hope. Age old problem though, anytime something looks decent its's in the next run :pac::pac:

    The good aul CFS looks nice though, even though it's sh**te.

    cfs-2-210.png?12


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Obviously nobody posting FI charts this morning because of analysis paralysis with all the sexy options on the table. Looks like it's set to get cold gang!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    Obviously nobody posting FI charts this morning because of analysis paralysis with all the sexy options on the table. Looks like it's set to get cold gang!

    Colder not cold enough for widespread(or any at all really) urban low level snow
    Ergo no excitement warranted

    That said,no doubt you can see the end of the relentless bullseye jetstream attack on Ireland is trending south encouraging a colder draft south towards us and eventually perhaps, something that warrants excitement?
    Couple that independent development with strat heating,and one of the few things to be thankfull to Frank for,strengthening heights at the pole Mt's timetable seems to be on track for the freezer to head our way properly,lets see?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,843 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Not going to happen but lovely to look at...

    gfs-1-288.png?6


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Colder not cold enough for widespread(or any at all really) urban low level snow
    Ergo no excitement warranted

    That said,no doubt you can see the end of the relentless bullseye jetstream attack on Ireland is trending south encouraging a colder draft south towards us and eventually perhaps, something that warrants excitement?
    Couple that independent development with strat heating,and one of the few things to be thankfull to Frank for,strengthening heights at the pole Mt's timetable seems to be on track for the freezer to head our way properly,lets see?

    No excitement warranted? If current projections come off, I beg to differ - This is looking like our best chance of wintry weather since March 2013. Even if we don't see low level widespread snow immediately, it shouldn't be long coming with the developing Northern Hemisphere pattern I.e obliteration of the Polar Vortex.

    GEFS this morning showing a big swing towards cold-

    t850Dublin.png

    2m Temps staying below 5c throughout from the 12th onwards-

    t2mDublin.png

    Ensemble Mean showing just how disorganised the PV is and also the level of support for the pattern-

    npsh500mean-156.png

    Lovely chart from the GFS 06z run as an example - are we looking at an Atlantic high linking up with an Arctic high via Greenland??

    gfsnh-0-174.png.23314c5f3ae2cdacf348fcbc4a1a22c9.png


    Definitely something developing here- watch this space. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    dacogawa wrote: »
    Not going to happen but lovely to look at...

    gfs-1-288.png?6

    The NH chart for that timeframe is just incredible, 2010 rerun if it came off -

    gfsnh-0-288.png.f26575220faa1f5ae9e1fe824450d118.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,844 ✭✭✭hawkwing


    Atlantic getting shutdown by the looks of the 6z GFS .Lots of frost finally on the way,ice skating for the flooded areas,pity they couldn't make some money from it to reimburse their losses


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Colder not cold enough for widespread(or any at all really) urban low level snow
    Ergo no excitement warranted

    That said,no doubt you can see the end of the relentless bullseye jetstream attack on Ireland is trending south encouraging a colder draft south towards us and eventually perhaps, something that warrants excitement?
    Couple that independent development with strat heating,and one of the few things to be thankfull to Frank for,strengthening heights at the pole Mt's timetable seems to be on track for the freezer to head our way properly,lets see?

    I dunno, I concede it is all Fantasy Island, but to contest that there aren't conditions conducive for widespread urban snow showing from early next week amongst the GFS and ECM ensembles this morning is not something I agree with. These charts are showing wintry precipitation bands in various northerly, northwesterly and northeasterly air-flows, with uppers <-8C established over Ireland, well the ones I have looked at anyway. Mind you, the classic easterly streamer set up for Dublin and environs isn't showing hugely, and maybe that is what is meant by 'urban', but I'd say for urban areas in north, west, northwest, southwest and midlands some ickle lickle bit of excitement is warranted. I certainly think so anyway


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,283 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Must be something stirring if Blizzard is posting! :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Totally agree with Blizzard , if you can't get excited at this mornings charts you are mad.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,188 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Pressure falling near the Azores too - a vital ingredient for any decent cold spell imo. This is now looking very good, I was expecting a typical El Nino winter like 82-3 and 97-8 but I'm very happy to say I've been proved wrong. :)


    gfs-0-132.png?6
    BUT its hard not to get excited looking at some of the morning runs.
    agree, +132 is hardly FI is it!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Updated 06z ensembles for Dublin.

    373884.png

    373885.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Can we keep this thread just for FI charts please lads?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Mod Note

    Some posts have been moved to the Winter Chat Thread

    This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards - there's a great big mod note to that effect in the OP!

    Feel free to start a new thread to chat about the potential cold spell though.

    Thanks guys


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,843 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    The NH chart for that timeframe is just incredible, 2010 rerun if it came off -

    gfsnh-0-288.png.f26575220faa1f5ae9e1fe824450d118.png

    As I said, it's not going to happen. If I say it will happen it won't, so I'm going with it's not going to happen, would be wonderful though! (but won't happen) :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Nice negative NAO to correlate with the cold plunge on latest charts.
    nao.sprd2.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,188 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    The 12z at +126 showing stronger Greenland blocking than the 6z.

    gfsnh-0-126.png?12


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    The 12z at +126 showing stronger Greenland blocking than the 6z.

    gfsnh-0-126.png?12

    Aye very 2010ish that,first the north,Northwest and then a nuclear explosion of snow in the east as that low swings winds here round to the northeast to let in the shower trains,lets see? :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭teddybones


    Aye very 2010ish that,first the north,Northwest and then a nuclear explosion of snow in the east as that low swings winds here round to the northeast to let in the shower trains,lets see? :D

    Would -6 -7 uppers be cold enough to produce the streamers we had in 2010? Wouldn't we need more severe upper level cold?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    teddybones wrote: »
    Would -6 -7 uppers be cold enough to produce the streamers we had in 2010? Wouldn't we need more severe upper level cold?

    We'd need minus nines,but its complex because,there'd be a large volume of surface to 5000ft cold air and dewpoints coming in the wake of that,which means temps at 850 level don't need to be as low,if you get me?
    Lets see


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    With such a strong signal from both UKMO and GFS its hard to believe that this evenings ECM run will disagree with it! I know for one thing it will be watched from behind the sofa!


  • Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    The_Start.png

    image upload


    Its going to cold from tomorrow evening. Frost and ice. Then the show begins Sunday. And the way its looking right now its going to be a repeat of 2010. Lake effect type snow coming in off the Irish sea. Eastern Counties Just getting plastered with snow. Infact the whole country is going to get hammered.

    This whole setup from next week is classic for POLAR LOWS to form............

    Tuesday its starts to get out of control.

    h850t850eu_Tuesday.png
    photo uploader

    When the ECM :D backs up the UKMO and todays GFS ........Take cover..:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Major strat warming also shown at the very end of the GFS 12z-
    CYDZ_MAWMAA25w8.png

    Day 7 mean on the GEFS is sublime -

    gensnh-21-1-144.png

    UKMO is also excellent from start to finish, would be nice to have the ECM on board this evening. This is potentially developing into a classic cold spell for Ireland, lets worry about getting the cold in first and worry about details like local 850hpa Temps later on- although present indications are they will be plenty low enough for snow...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost




  • Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Tonights ECM :D

    tFJRiE.gif


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,266 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Every time a new post appears I only have to look at the username to know its good news for snow fans :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,737 ✭✭✭Missymoohaa


    What time does the ECM usually publish at?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    I'll take that thank you kindly!
    ECM1-168_tgv0.GIF


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,843 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    The ECM is telling lies now, it's so not going to happen...

    ECM0-192.GIF?06-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭teddybones


    dacogawa wrote: »
    The ECM is telling lies now, it's so not going to happen...

    ECM0-192.GIF?06-0

    Need a prescription from the doc to cope with next few days if charts all agreeing and throwing up snow porn.


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