FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

Iancar29

Yeah thats the ECM solution which they would nearly always side with. I too so far with the latest runs.

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO signalling potential pattern change as well in to the new year along with the ECM. This is how easterlies get set up. Just have to see that jet stream dive south. I like the look of this setup. Might build on it in the next few days.

maquiladora

On the 18Z GFS the first low on Tuesday is weaker but would still bring a brief spells of gusts of up to 130 km/h to the east coast. The second low on Wednesday is stronger and would bring gusts of up to around 150 kmh or more to the west coast.

I'd still have more faith in whatever the ECM is showing.

snaps

I fear the ECM is going into old habits and sinking that Scandinavian high back down to its usual place this winter southern Europe.

This latest run its tying in with GFS and GEM into letting it slip away because of the Atlantic lows.

The cold is there, but it gets wasted by slipping south east before being built up over central Europe to plunge west.

It just looks like that Atlantic is far to dominating currently.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

I'd still have more faith in whatever the ECM is showing.

Not showing much this morning but the general situation looks volatile over the next 5 days or so, so I'd not rule out something occurring between now and NYD. This chart for the 30th shows a small but vigorous wave to the SW of Ireland on 30th. Weakens by the time it reaches Ireland but still could be enough to keep a watch on for now.



Away from this, looks like a few of stations, at least here in the west (and possibly elsewhere) will finish with higher rainfall totals than what was recorded back in November 2009, which considering that the current month was proceeded by an extremely wet November already, makes it all the more significant, as November '09 followed on from a relatively dry October that year. I think we all deserve a month of raging dry easterlies that are well sourced in the vast heartland of eastern Russia to help mop up the sludge and the floods. The soil in my back garden is more like bubbling quick sand at this stage.

Iancar29

sryanbruen

Iancar29 wrote: »

Back to school day! If only this wasn't Fantasy Island :mad:

Iancar29

Sure there'd be 5cms of snow, schools would be closed

btw , no need to quote posts with numerous graphics in it.

maquiladora

Snow showers pushing into the west on New Years Eve night on the GFS with some cold air being dragged over to us from the west in the wake of those lows.

Rikand

Weathercheck wrote: »

EC going for an intense storm, but hitting less populated areas.

Would smash NW Ireland with gusts to 150kph

After it smashes the NW coast it goes on to take a DIRECT hit on Iceland. They looking likely to get super smashed from it.






While we batten down the hatches for the next one.

Kermit.de.frog

icesnowfrost

at last the cold is coming


good sign anyways. lets see how it plays out.

Captain Snow

Just Saying......


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Thats some Scandi High / Russian High Pressure Building.

Captain Snow

Tonights ECM .

Could we be heading into a winter wonderland ....



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arctictree

Captain Snow wrote: »

Tonights ECM .

Could we be heading into a winter wonderland ....

Yes, if you live in Scotland. We seem to be on the wrong side of it.

Captain Snow

arctictree wrote: »

Yes, if you live in Scotland. We seem to be on the wrong side of it.

We need a trigger low in to France.

maquiladora

arctictree wrote: »

Yes, if you live in Scotland. We seem to be on the wrong side of it.

WheatenBriar

Regarding the chatter on a possible scandi russian high,as usual a bloated Russian high is the most probable outcome,ergo something that might occasionally be of use to SE England not Ireland
Thats that form horse

Nabber

Another low set to make land fall on our south west.
May down garde in terms of track. One to keep an eye on

maquiladora

torres9kop

maquiladora wrote: »

What does this map mean?

Musicman2000

torres9kop wrote: »

What does this map mean?

Snow accumulation Map

torres9kop

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Snow accumulation Map

2010 here we come 🀘ðŸ»

Musicman2000

torres9kop wrote: »

2010 here we come 🀘ðŸ»

Nice to look at. But take it with a very large pinch of salt.

maquiladora

Nabber

Feeling sorry for the south west.

maquiladora

Meteorite58

SeaBreezes

maquiladora wrote: »

I see the South Cork Snow Shield is holding up even in Fantasy Island (sigh)

Nabber

Looking good on GFS @+380