FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

Gaoth Laidir

ECMWF average pressure and precipitation for both the past 10 days and next 10 days. More of the same, with up to 250% of average rainfall predicted.

Past 10 days


Next 10 days

littlemac1980

Predictions for the swell approaching Ireland from the 7th are terrifying.



Magicseaweed doesn't allow me get further at the moment but the trajectory takes it up into the south of Ireland and South west uk.

aisling86

littlemac1980 wrote:

Predictions for the swell approaching Ireland from the 7th are terrifying.

It's not showing this intensity now?

teddybones

aisling86 wrote: »

It's not showing this intensity now?

Has downgraded on latest runs. May pop back up again. Ya never know.

Captain Snow

With this huge injection of warmth into the north pole, i,d expect all the models to be wrong as this has'nt happened before.

Well it may have happened but we didnt have super computers at the time.

Dont think the models can pick up on it this just yet. Anyone any other ideas.

Darwin

Unfortunately the latest thoughts from Ian F. (fergieweather @ UK met office) suggest a mostly flat zonal flow for January and the likelihood of any colder weather happening as a result of a SSW taking place in February/March. However he did say that they await the current monthly update from the EC model which has not yet taken account of any poleward WAA effects from Storm Frank.

Captain Snow

Darwin wrote: »

Unfortunately the latest thoughts from Ian F. (fergieweather @ UK met office) suggest a mostly flat zonal flow for January and the likelihood of any colder weather happening as a result of a SSW taking place in February/March. However he did say that they await the current monthly update from the EC model which has not yet taken account of any poleward WAA effects from Storm Frank.

Any WAA effect is bound to trigger something what ever that may be.....

maquiladora

Captain Snow wrote: »

Any WAA effect is bound to trigger something what ever that may be.....

Disappointment.

Captain Snow

maquiladora wrote: »

Disappointment.

LMAO:D

From The Chosen One on Netweather......

So to repeat what I just added over on TWO

bin all the GFS & ECM suites

go with a total pattern change in the next 12-24 hours to a very cold easterly at 144-168

quote -

force eleven

Captain Snow wrote: »

LMAO:D

From The Chosen One on Netweather......

So to repeat what I just added over on TWO

bin all the GFS & ECM suites

go with a total pattern change in the next 12-24 hours to a very cold easterly at 144-168

quote -

That's Steve for you, he lays it out straight. Cannot see it myself to be honest. More or less as you were for the next 2 weeks I believe , maybe less wind,cooler temps but still high precipitation values.

Captain Snow

force eleven wrote: »

That's Steve for you, he lays it out straight. Cannot see it myself to be honest. More or less as you were for the next 2 weeks I believe , maybe less wind,cooler temps but still high precipitation values.

As Mr Murr said, not the next 6 hours, but the next 12 to 24 hours we,ll see A change....:D

Gaoth Laidir

ECMWF ensemble mean pressure and 850 hPa temperature at 15 days. Still showing a strong Atlantic trough and T850 at zero or above, with little spread. This would not bode well for cold.

WheatenBriar

One thing I've learned in seeing mr murrs posts on Two and NW over the past decade or more is he's an awful hopecaster
He knows like the rest of us what brings cold but his posts are always,this goes here and if this happens and that shortwave goes that way etc
All ifs and maybes
usually 90% wrong and 100% posting what people want to hear

JanuarySnowstor

More often than not Steve Murray let's his heart rule his head. A bit of a ridiculous statement.

On a brighter note GP is expecting changes through January and I would 100% support his thoughts and how he gets there

WheatenBriar

Change is inevitable
The when is unknown
But there has to be a fair chance of mt and others thoughts months ago of it being from mid jan onwards being on the ball given now the jets been raging over us for 2 months
It will certainly be after mid January, I just hope its not as late as march
I won't clog up this thread with this any more,this chatter is for the winter thread

Meteorite58

That big area of low pressure that showed up originally making a direct hit with Ireland on the 7th , now would appear to stall in the Atlantic as the main part of the jet seems to take a more southerly route whilst a smaller part of it hooks back around the low possibly preventing its progress. The later runs would suggest that the jet just pushes that low up North out of the way.

I notice the next couple of lows seem to fill as they reach Ireland and are mostly prevented from moving East by the High Pressures over Europe. Is the Atlantic beginning to quiten down/ run out of power ? The Atlantic regime coming to an end ?

snaps

Well with this run that low pushes much further east again, making everything very zonal. I think the Atlantic at the moment is always going to be the winner.

maquiladora

Happy New Year?



Mean winds, over 150 km/h off the west coast. Gusts would probably be close to 200 km/h on the west/northwest coast.

B17G

maquiladora wrote: »

Happy New Year?



Mean winds, over 150 km/h off the west coast. Gusts would probably be close to 200 km/h on the west/northwest coast.

Unpleasant to say the least. Next few ECM runs will be interesting. If its still there by Sunday night, it would be worrying.

Meteorite58

It's like the original low divided and multiplied...

maquiladora

B17G wrote: »

Unpleasant to say the least. Next few ECM runs will be interesting. If its still there by Sunday night, it would be worrying.

I'm sure it'll be gone/different on the very next run. That looks like a fairly volatile period and the models are nowhere close to nailing down where a depression will be and how strong it will be at this point.

B17G

This ensemble sends the system barrelling right through.

squarecircles

Windy

B17G

Different now on the 12Z run. It will flip flop around a fair bit in the next few days. (Maq's right as usual!!).

snaps

B17G wrote: »

Different now on the 12Z run. It will flip flop around a fair bit in the next few days. (Maq's right as usual!!).

That chart just doesn't look right. The whole of Europe covered by that 1 low pressure system?

maquiladora

B17G

Nasty for the Straits Of Dover, Northern France, Western Belgium if this pans out.

snaps

Looks like the High pressure building in Scandinavia was very temporary. By the end of this week it'll be long gone with storm after storm crossing the Atlantic and up towards Scandinavia. Get set for more misery.

Comhrá

Looking at the slp GFS run from 07/01/16 to 11/01/16, it's interesting how the deep 07/1 low off the NW coast of Ireland makes a complete 360 degree track in the Atlantic and comes back to take a second swipe at us around the 11th.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

squarecircles

Southwest uk in the firing line in this one.