FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

pad199207

With such a strong signal from both UKMO and GFS its hard to believe that this evenings ECM run will disagree with it! I know for one thing it will be watched from behind the sofa!

Captain Snow

image upload


Its going to cold from tomorrow evening. Frost and ice. Then the show begins Sunday. And the way its looking right now its going to be a repeat of 2010. Lake effect type snow coming in off the Irish sea. Eastern Counties Just getting plastered with snow. Infact the whole country is going to get hammered.

This whole setup from next week is classic for POLAR LOWS to form............

Tuesday its starts to get out of control.


photo uploader

When the ECM backs up the UKMO and todays GFS ........Take cover..:D

BLIZZARD7

Major strat warming also shown at the very end of the GFS 12z-


Day 7 mean on the GEFS is sublime -



UKMO is also excellent from start to finish, would be nice to have the ECM on board this evening. This is potentially developing into a classic cold spell for Ireland, lets worry about getting the cold in first and worry about details like local 850hpa Temps later on- although present indications are they will be plenty low enough for snow...

icesnowfrost

this is beautiful but way into fi.
http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20160106/12/252/uksnowrisk.png

Captain Snow

Tonights ECM

km79

Every time a new post appears I only have to look at the username to know its good news for snow fans

Missymoohaa

What time does the ECM usually publish at?

Iancar29

I'll take that thank you kindly!

dacogawa

The ECM is telling lies now, it's so not going to happen...

teddybones

dacogawa wrote: »

The ECM is telling lies now, it's so not going to happen...

Need a prescription from the doc to cope with next few days if charts all agreeing and throwing up snow porn.

Elmer Blooker

:eek: ... jaysus! I've nothing else to add.

BLIZZARD7

Best 10 day ECM chart I've seen in a long time -

Captain Snow

So a week from now 168 hrs away potential Blizzard situation eastern parts of Ireland.

ECM




GFS

WheatenBriar

Captain Snow wrote: »

So a week from now 168 hrs away potential Blizzard situation eastern parts of Ireland.

ECM




GFS

More likely to be only on high ground,well inland and in Connaught Ulster and North Leinster (inland) on that chart
East coastal parts including Dublin would have cold rainy sleet
Too much of a warm sector
That said,I'm not convinced any low will get that far north if the jetstream is barrelling into the cote d'azur

maquiladora

Captain Snow wrote: »

So a week from now 168 hrs away potential Blizzard situation eastern parts of Ireland.

ECM




GFS

ECM snowfall at 180 hours :

http://i.imgbox.com/CfcdOahE.png

Captain Snow

WheatenBriar wrote: »

More likely to be only on high ground,well inland and in Connaught Ulster and North Leinster (inland) on that chart
East coastal parts including Dublin would have cold rainy sleet
Too much of a warm sector
That said,I'm not convinced any low will get that far north if the jetstream is barrelling into the cote d'azur

I think that is the Low MT was talking about this morning, it may not even happen but great charts and possibilites. It reminds me of 1996 if i remember correctly a low turned north clashed with the cold air and plastered eastern counties. Any lows coming north or sliding south east now have great potential to produce dumps of snow in Ireland, midland areas favour the most atm. Higher parts of Dublin Wicklow would also see snow.

However this could all change to a closer time frame. ECM giving the best output.

WheatenBriar

maquiladora wrote: »

ECM snowfall at 180 hours :

http://i.imgbox.com/CfcdOahE.png

Theres form for that horse in January 2010 at the end of the jan week one spell
Sleet and rain on the coast in the East but snow in Waterford and Cork thanks to the wind flow drying out the dewpoints down that way

Musicman2000

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Theres form for that horse in January 2010 at the end of the jan week one spell
Sleet and rain on the coast in the East but snow in Waterford and Cork thanks to the wind flow drying out the dewpoints down that way

As you said that low will have a more southerly Track . More than likely the North of France into the english channel . But if it does Track as shown Waterford & Cork should do well.

Iancar29

Nice 12z run, still steady , nothing amazing or disastrous on either run.

UKMO gives us the best northerly incursion while the GFS, even though it produces a much better Greeny high , it brings a more indirect northerly which isn't as cold by the time it reaches us.

maquiladora

Up to 15 cm of snow in Munster accumulated by day 10 on the 12Z GFS, for what it's worth. Don't take it even remotely seriously though.

Captain Snow

There,ll be talk next of Omega blocks...............:D

SeaBreezes

maquiladora wrote: »

Up to 15 inches of snow in Munster accumulated by day 10 on the 12Z GFS, for what it's worth. Don't take it even remotely seriously though.

The south coast is still clear :-( we'll have to travel for our snow fix ..

HighLine

maquiladora wrote: »

Up to 15 inches of snow in Munster accumulated by day 10 on the 12Z GFS, for what it's worth. Don't take it even remotely seriously though.

Not 15cm no?

maquiladora

HighLine wrote: »

Not 15cm no?

Yeah! Just fixed it.

KingdomRushed

Captain Snow wrote: »

There,ll be talk next of Omega blocks...............:D

Check out the 12z ECM at 216 hours. Omega away ;-)

Bejubby

Downgrades from here on in lads.
Marginal snow to some parts of Ireland.

It's always the same with these guys charts, they start with extreme cases and then fizzle down to minor events.

Not getting too exited yet

Captain Snow

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Check out the 12z ECM at 216 hours. Omega away ;-)

Damn straight

pad199207

Bejubby wrote: »

Downgrades from here on in lads.
Marginal snow to some parts of Ireland.

It's always the same with these guys charts, they start with extreme cases and then fizzle down to minor events.

Not getting too exited yet

I'll hand you your coat at the door

rickdangerouss

#Omega Block..

"The Omega Block is a combination of two cut-off lows and one blocking high that form the Greek letter omega (Ω). The westerly upper-level inflow abruptly splits westward and poleward of the first cyclonic circulation (L1), creating one of two primary deformation zones."

icesnowfrost

things are still looking fine as far as i can see. good cold pool over us and a nice low forming along the east coast. might produce some streamers. as far as i can see its all good.