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FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1
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Yes, finally daycent stuff to flip through on the model outputs and loads of winter left. I see openings for an evolution toward cold weather now on both GFS and ECM, coming at the right point too, deepest winter. Definitely some interest today, hopefully we will see the trend of Greenland height rises, and the halting of the Atlantic train, that is so apparent in the GFS extended set this morning continue. This of course doesn't mean it's going to snow, but the odds have to be shortening on some wintry weather. All eyes down for this evening's outputs!!0 -
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M.T. Cranium wrote: »Big 1050 mb high building on ECM days 5 to 10, north of Norway and drifting slowly southwest. Could start to become a player in about ten days if it really develops that way. If it links through to the Azores high then the Atlantic will get shut down.
Well John Hammond on BBC said that the computer models are agreeing and next week, it will turn notably colder and drier! Now this gives me a big happy smile
:):):):):):) Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
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sryanbruen wrote: »Well John Hammond on BBC said that the computer models are agreeing and next week, it will turn notably colder and drier! Now this gives me a big happy smile:):):):):):)
Saw that weather report, interesting seeing the Arctic High Pressure build and the effects of that big low pressure which will move in off the Atlantic towards the end of the week and will possibly push into Europe and possibly pull down that cold air from the NW that has been long awaited. Mention of the Jet staying south ( I see on the charts untill at least the 13th) and can see the Azores high build that MT spoke of so looks like things might be happening at last to curtail the almost endless rain.
Could I ask to those in the know to explain further the interaction between the Polar High and the Azores High in keeping the Atlantic stable, is it to do with the clockwise direction of the flow on both that would keep both in motion ( as if locked together ) and more or less stationary?
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sryanbruen wrote: »Well John Hammond on BBC said that the computer models are agreeing and next week, it will turn notably colder and drier! Now this gives me a big happy smile:):):):):):)
Cold and DRY you say
Yes sir I'll have some of that please0 -
Cold is still FI tho, as stated above it will favour NW (not that i'd be grudge any county(ies) of snow)
The low pressure stagnates over Scotland for 2 days and then 2 more in the north sea (according to GFS 18z).
It's the sort of setup where 50 miles her or there means snow or rain. Interesting to watch. If the feature off the coast of Norway in the model above doesn't develop, we could tap into some Scandinavian cold a lot faster.0 -
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This just sums up an Irish winter
Well into FI, but most of the models starting to look like that. High pressure never makes it up to Greenland, just topples back over us. Models are chopping and changing though so still a glimmer of hope. Age old problem though, anytime something looks decent its's in the next run :pac::pac:
The good aul CFS looks nice though, even though it's sh**te.
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WheatenBriar wrote: »Colder not cold enough for widespread(or any at all really) urban low level snow
Ergo no excitement warranted
That said,no doubt you can see the end of the relentless bullseye jetstream attack on Ireland is trending south encouraging a colder draft south towards us and eventually perhaps, something that warrants excitement?
Couple that independent development with strat heating,and one of the few things to be thankfull to Frank for,strengthening heights at the pole Mt's timetable seems to be on track for the freezer to head our way properly,lets see?
No excitement warranted? If current projections come off, I beg to differ - This is looking like our best chance of wintry weather since March 2013. Even if we don't see low level widespread snow immediately, it shouldn't be long coming with the developing Northern Hemisphere pattern I.e obliteration of the Polar Vortex.
GEFS this morning showing a big swing towards cold-
2m Temps staying below 5c throughout from the 12th onwards-
Ensemble Mean showing just how disorganised the PV is and also the level of support for the pattern-
Lovely chart from the GFS 06z run as an example - are we looking at an Atlantic high linking up with an Arctic high via Greenland??
Definitely something developing here- watch this space.
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Pressure falling near the Azores too - a vital ingredient for any decent cold spell imo. This is now looking very good, I was expecting a typical El Nino winter like 82-3 and 97-8 but I'm very happy to say I've been proved wrong.
agree, +132 is hardly FI is it!BUT its hard not to get excited looking at some of the morning runs.0 -
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Elmer Blooker wrote: »The 12z at +126 showing stronger Greenland blocking than the 6z.
Aye very 2010ish that,first the north,Northwest and then a nuclear explosion of snow in the east as that low swings winds here round to the northeast to let in the shower trains,lets see? 0 -
WheatenBriar wrote: »Aye very 2010ish that,first the north,Northwest and then a nuclear explosion of snow in the east as that low swings winds here round to the northeast to let in the shower trains,lets see?
Would -6 -7 uppers be cold enough to produce the streamers we had in 2010? Wouldn't we need more severe upper level cold?0 -
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