FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

Elmer Blooker

... no Dec '10 on the cards but nothing mild either.
I still think a scandi high is a real possibility though. FI is about +96 lately which is why this thread is so quiet I presume?

esposito

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

... no Dec '10 on the cards but nothing mild either.
I still think a scandi high is a real possibility though. FI is about +96 lately which is why this thread is so quiet I presume?

I'm liking your optimism Elmer. Usually you're the opposite:p

aboyro

icesnowfrost wrote: »

things are still looking fine as far as i can see. good cold pool over us and a nice low forming along the east coast. might produce some streamers. as far as i can see its all good.

all we need is that 990 low to slip towards biscay and its 1947 all over again!!!!

Gonzo

aboyro wrote: »

all we need is that 990 low to slip towards biscay and its 1947 all over again!!!!

unfortunately that chart was how things were before it kinda went all pear shaped for Leinster/Dublin in the past 24 hours.

Iancar29

GFS keeps the gate closed for height rises into Greenland due to a cut off low coming off Newfoundland .



T+144hrs


UKMO and GEM don't make much of it however and better heights build into Greenland.




Even though it wouldn't produce some white gold the GEM then sinks the high down over us which would lead to some very nice crisp dry weather with frosty nights.

maquiladora

Here we go again....

gerrybhoy

maquiladora wrote: »

Here we go again....

we're on the road again...oh wrong forum

Eugene Norman

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/685928227790008320

maquiladora

GFS showing a rain/snow mix on Friday.

pad199207

Is the baold GFS backtracking?

maquiladora

pad199207 wrote: »

Is the baold GFS backtracking?

Extends the cold by a day or two. It's FI so it's going to change on each run anyway. Whatever happens, the weather next weekend almost certainly won't look like what the models are showing today.

maquiladora

UKMO teasing those still looking for the chance of a significant cold spell.

maquiladora

GEM has colder uppers pushing into North Africa than Ireland. :rolleyes: :pac:

sean555

I see the 18z GFS has decided to backtrack on both previous gfs runs and keep the cold next weekend.

Meteorite58

Towards the end of the month signs of the jet taking a more Northerly track

Nabber

Keeping the dream alive, where ever it may be found




You have the love the temps in Greenland on this
-4 and -40 less than 100miles apart

nacho libre

so euro heights and a resurgent pv on the gfs and ecm model going forward, this time next week it could be very mild over Ireland. maybe storm alex sends warmth up to the poles to disrupt the vortex again?

Nabber

Just some eye candy

Nabber

FI GFS style

teddybones

Nabber wrote: »

FI GFS style

Just in time for my birthday on 27th. If that were to come to pass I imagine there would be some spectacular streamers on the east coast!

Oneiric 3

ECM at 240hrs. Looks ominous.



Won't turn out like that of course but this morning's EC mean tending towards a more unsettled, possibly stormier spell as the month draws to a close.

Oneiric 3

ECM 240 hrs completely different tonight, with a high trying to build to our N, and which goes against its ensemble mean. I really hope we don't get stuck in cold col type conditions as is per the norm these last few winters and as this chart suggests. A full blown easterly or a raging westerly I'll accept, but not this damp, semi-cold windless rot that we experience far too often in Ireland.

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECM 240 hrs completely different tonight, with a high trying to build to our N, and which goes against its ensemble mean. I really hope we don't get stuck in cold col type conditions as is per the norm these last few winters and as this chart suggests. A full blown easterly or a raging westerly I'll accept, but not this damp, semi-cold windless rot that we experience far too often in Ireland.

One in particular back in February 2013 comes to mind of such a pattern.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECM 240 hrs completely different tonight, with a high trying to build to our N, and which goes against its ensemble mean. I really hope we don't get stuck in cold col type conditions as is per the norm these last few winters and as this chart suggests. A full blown easterly or a raging westerly I'll accept, but not this damp, semi-cold windless rot that we experience far too often in Ireland.

yes, it seems a long time since we got a true deep easterly in Ireland.
i suppose looking at it optimistically, we are over due one.

by the way i was standing outside enjoying the snowfall at 5 am this morning . it didn't stick, but having being snow starved for so long, i was just happy seeing the white stuff fall.:D

Nabber

Extreme Cherry picking of different perbs

arctictree

GFS showing some more cold for mid next week:

Elmer Blooker

you beat me to it! I was just about to post the same chart ......... oh wait ..... its not the same chart!

Speak Now

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

you beat me to it! I was just about to post the same chart ......... oh wait ..... its not the same chart!

May as well go the whole hog....5 days later

teddybones

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

you beat me to it! I was just about to post the same chart ......... oh wait ..... its not the same chart!

What happened in 1947 after this set up?

KingdomRushed

For what it's worth there is certainly a lot of interest in the 6z GFS ensembles which seem to have held on to and strengthened a trend from the previous set of ensembles this morning. This trend is for High Pressure to move north, first in our vicinity, and then poleward. Further to this there then is a number of ensembles showing various 'eye candy' in the 200 hr+ timeframe, with easterly sourced cold, northeasterly sourced cold, and northerly cold all in the mix.