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FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

Iancar29

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

Never to early to start the fun of looking through some extreme FI charts for storms and cold spells.

I shall start the post with a rant....

IF ONLY IT WAS WINTER ALREADY!!

Big Scandi High...

And a classic gif to start with :pac:

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KingdomRushed

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yes, finally daycent stuff to flip through on the model outputs and loads of winter left. I see openings for an evolution toward cold weather now on both GFS and ECM, coming at the right point too, deepest winter. Definitely some interest today, hopefully we will see the trend of Greenland height rises, and the halting of the Atlantic train, that is so apparent in the GFS extended set this morning continue. This of course doesn't mean it's going to snow, but the odds have to be shortening on some wintry weather. All eyes down for this evening's outputs!!

KingdomRushed

Stealthfins wrote: »

Hi guys and ladies,where do I find these charts,I'm gaining more of an interest in charts.

Is there a website I can follow

www.meteociel.fr is a good one.

Trogdor

Stealthfins wrote: »

Hi guys and ladies,where do I find these charts,I'm gaining more of an interest in charts.

Is there a website I can follow

This thread should have just about everything/anything you are looking for. I haven't been through it in a while to check that all the links are still working but there are some good websites there for charts under the "Models" heading.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056531638

clever user name

12z GFS goes completely pear-shaped towards the end of the run. Way in FI though, the potential is still there. Will probably be completely different again for the next run. Interested to see what the ECM throws up.

Meteorite58

By the latest runs dont see anything stormy out to 192hr. That big low that forms around the 7th seems to stall well off to the west untill it pushes in over Ireland around the 10th /11th as it fills.

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Big 1050 mb high building on ECM days 5 to 10, north of Norway and drifting slowly southwest. Could start to become a player in about ten days if it really develops that way. If it links through to the Azores high then the Atlantic will get shut down.

Well John Hammond on BBC said that the computer models are agreeing and next week, it will turn notably colder and drier! Now this gives me a big happy smile

:):):):):):)

Meteorite58

sryanbruen wrote: »

Well John Hammond on BBC said that the computer models are agreeing and next week, it will turn notably colder and drier! Now this gives me a big happy smile :):):):):):)

Saw that weather report, interesting seeing the Arctic High Pressure build and the effects of that big low pressure which will move in off the Atlantic towards the end of the week and will possibly push into Europe and possibly pull down that cold air from the NW that has been long awaited. Mention of the Jet staying south ( I see on the charts untill at least the 13th) and can see the Azores high build that MT spoke of so looks like things might be happening at last to curtail the almost endless rain.

Could I ask to those in the know to explain further the interaction between the Polar High and the Azores High in keeping the Atlantic stable, is it to do with the clockwise direction of the flow on both that would keep both in motion ( as if locked together ) and more or less stationary?

km79

sryanbruen wrote: »

Well John Hammond on BBC said that the computer models are agreeing and next week, it will turn notably colder and drier! Now this gives me a big happy smile :):):):):):)

Cold and DRY you say
Yes sir I'll have some of that please

Nabber

Cold is still FI tho, as stated above it will favour NW (not that i'd be grudge any county(ies) of snow)

The low pressure stagnates over Scotland for 2 days and then 2 more in the north sea (according to GFS 18z).
It's the sort of setup where 50 miles her or there means snow or rain. Interesting to watch. If the feature off the coast of Norway in the model above doesn't develop, we could tap into some Scandinavian cold a lot faster.

Nabber

This just sums up an Irish winter

gfs-1-300.png?12?12

clever user name

Nabber wrote: »

This just sums up an Irish winter

Well into FI, but most of the models starting to look like that. High pressure never makes it up to Greenland, just topples back over us. Models are chopping and changing though so still a glimmer of hope. Age old problem though, anytime something looks decent its's in the next run :pac::pac:

The good aul CFS looks nice though, even though it's sh**te.

cfs-2-210.png?12

KingdomRushed

Obviously nobody posting FI charts this morning because of analysis paralysis with all the sexy options on the table. Looks like it's set to get cold gang!

WheatenBriar

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Obviously nobody posting FI charts this morning because of analysis paralysis with all the sexy options on the table. Looks like it's set to get cold gang!

Colder not cold enough for widespread(or any at all really) urban low level snow
Ergo no excitement warranted

That said,no doubt you can see the end of the relentless bullseye jetstream attack on Ireland is trending south encouraging a colder draft south towards us and eventually perhaps, something that warrants excitement?
Couple that independent development with strat heating,and one of the few things to be thankfull to Frank for,strengthening heights at the pole Mt's timetable seems to be on track for the freezer to head our way properly,lets see?

dacogawa

Not going to happen but lovely to look at...

gfs-1-288.png?6

BLIZZARD7

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Colder not cold enough for widespread(or any at all really) urban low level snow
Ergo no excitement warranted

That said,no doubt you can see the end of the relentless bullseye jetstream attack on Ireland is trending south encouraging a colder draft south towards us and eventually perhaps, something that warrants excitement?
Couple that independent development with strat heating,and one of the few things to be thankfull to Frank for,strengthening heights at the pole Mt's timetable seems to be on track for the freezer to head our way properly,lets see?

No excitement warranted? If current projections come off, I beg to differ - This is looking like our best chance of wintry weather since March 2013. Even if we don't see low level widespread snow immediately, it shouldn't be long coming with the developing Northern Hemisphere pattern I.e obliteration of the Polar Vortex.

GEFS this morning showing a big swing towards cold-

2m Temps staying below 5c throughout from the 12th onwards-

Ensemble Mean showing just how disorganised the PV is and also the level of support for the pattern-

Lovely chart from the GFS 06z run as an example - are we looking at an Atlantic high linking up with an Arctic high via Greenland??

gfsnh-0-174.png.23314c5f3ae2cdacf348fcbc4a1a22c9.png

gfsnh-0-174.png.23314c5f3ae2cdacf348fcbc4a1a22c9.png

Definitely something developing here- watch this space.

BLIZZARD7

dacogawa wrote: »

Not going to happen but lovely to look at...

The NH chart for that timeframe is just incredible, 2010 rerun if it came off -

gfsnh-0-288.png.f26575220faa1f5ae9e1fe824450d118.png

hawkwing

Atlantic getting shutdown by the looks of the 6z GFS .Lots of frost finally on the way,ice skating for the flooded areas,pity they couldn't make some money from it to reimburse their losses

KingdomRushed

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Colder not cold enough for widespread(or any at all really) urban low level snow
Ergo no excitement warranted

That said,no doubt you can see the end of the relentless bullseye jetstream attack on Ireland is trending south encouraging a colder draft south towards us and eventually perhaps, something that warrants excitement?
Couple that independent development with strat heating,and one of the few things to be thankfull to Frank for,strengthening heights at the pole Mt's timetable seems to be on track for the freezer to head our way properly,lets see?

I dunno, I concede it is all Fantasy Island, but to contest that there aren't conditions conducive for widespread urban snow showing from early next week amongst the GFS and ECM ensembles this morning is not something I agree with. These charts are showing wintry precipitation bands in various northerly, northwesterly and northeasterly air-flows, with uppers <-8C established over Ireland, well the ones I have looked at anyway. Mind you, the classic easterly streamer set up for Dublin and environs isn't showing hugely, and maybe that is what is meant by 'urban', but I'd say for urban areas in north, west, northwest, southwest and midlands some ickle lickle bit of excitement is warranted. I certainly think so anyway

DOCARCH

Must be something stirring if Blizzard is posting! :pac:

Iancar29

Totally agree with Blizzard , if you can't get excited at this mornings charts you are mad.

Elmer Blooker

Pressure falling near the Azores too - a vital ingredient for any decent cold spell imo. This is now looking very good, I was expecting a typical El Nino winter like 82-3 and 97-8 but I'm very happy to say I've been proved wrong.

BUT its hard not to get excited looking at some of the morning runs.

agree, +132 is hardly FI is it!

Iancar29

Updated 06z ensembles for Dublin.

maquiladora

Can we keep this thread just for FI charts please lads?

Lumi

Mod Note

Some posts have been moved to the Winter Chat Thread

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards - there's a great big mod note to that effect in the OP!

Feel free to start a new thread to chat about the potential cold spell though.

Thanks guys

dacogawa

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

The NH chart for that timeframe is just incredible, 2010 rerun if it came off -

As I said, it's not going to happen. If I say it will happen it won't, so I'm going with it's not going to happen, would be wonderful though! (but won't happen)

Iancar29

Nice negative NAO to correlate with the cold plunge on latest charts.
nao.sprd2.gif

Elmer Blooker

The 12z at +126 showing stronger Greenland blocking than the 6z.

gfsnh-0-126.png?12

WheatenBriar

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The 12z at +126 showing stronger Greenland blocking than the 6z.

Aye very 2010ish that,first the north,Northwest and then a nuclear explosion of snow in the east as that low swings winds here round to the northeast to let in the shower trains,lets see?

teddybones

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Aye very 2010ish that,first the north,Northwest and then a nuclear explosion of snow in the east as that low swings winds here round to the northeast to let in the shower trains,lets see?

Would -6 -7 uppers be cold enough to produce the streamers we had in 2010? Wouldn't we need more severe upper level cold?

WheatenBriar

teddybones wrote: »

Would -6 -7 uppers be cold enough to produce the streamers we had in 2010? Wouldn't we need more severe upper level cold?

We'd need minus nines,but its complex because,there'd be a large volume of surface to 5000ft cold air and dewpoints coming in the wake of that,which means temps at 850 level don't need to be as low,if you get me?
Lets see