FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

Iancar29

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards


Never to early to start the fun of looking through some extreme FI charts for storms and cold spells.


I shall start the post with a rant....

IF ONLY IT WAS WINTER ALREADY!!

Big Scandi High...


And a classic gif to start with :pac:

Lucreto

By the time Winter gets here the Azores high will have moved in.

It would be very typical.

Birdnuts

Lucreto wrote: »

By the time Winter gets here the Azores high will have moved in.

It would be very typical.

Indeed - we have a climate that is rather frustrating for those of us who enjoy a seasonal fair:( and it would be typical to now have a run of mild months through the winter after such a frigid spring/summer for most

Rikand

First weekend of September. Sure this'd be grand!

Iancar29

Yeah even the ensembles are showing classic " back to school weather " with high pressure showing potentially for the next two weeks.




Minimal ppn due to this.


It won't be a heatwaves though with t850s being showing colder than average for the first 8-10 days at least.

One of my favourite types of weather , dry and sunny but cool enough to be able to get out and about without melting away.
And of course being able to sleep at night!!

Rebelbrowser

Getting nippy toward end of November according to the ever reliable CFS (coldest chart I could find out to late November!)..

Iancar29

ECM develops the remnants of TS henri slightly more aggressively than the gfs





Still only warning criteria for southern England for rain and NW France for winds. Ireland not effected much on this run IMO.

maquiladora

Strong FI storm on the GEM tonight.

ronnie3585

maquiladora wrote: »

Strong FI storm on the GEM tonight.

Highest tides in 18 years for Galway that evening. Such low pressure and strong westerlies would not be helpful.

Elmer Blooker

maquiladora wrote: »

Strong FI storm on the GEM tonight.

I prefer the ECM myself! Has it hit 20c anywhere this month? If this comes off it certainly will.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015092012/ECM1-192.GIF?20-0

maquiladora

Bit of an Indian summer maybe?

maquiladora

Even better. Pity it's FI and not in July. :pac:

Backpack20

Any update on that storm you posted about that could hit next Monday ? Not that great at reading them charts ..

maquiladora

Backpack20 wrote: »

Any update on that storm you posted about that could hit next Monday ? Not that great at reading them charts ..

That's disappeared now, it was just shown on one model on that day.

Elmer Blooker

An Indian summer now odds on and this is the first post here in over 24 hours! Was it 2011 or '12 when Dublin recorded 26c at the very end of Sept?
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015092212/ECM1-144.GIF?22-0

Oneiric 3

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

An Indian summer now odds on and this is the first post here in over 24 hours! Was it 2011 or '12 when Dublin recorded 26c at the very end of Sept?
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015092212/ECM1-144.GIF?22-0

There was a couple of warm days towards the end of Sept 2011 which peaked on the 28th.



Tight isobar gradient coupled with specific wind direction suggest a possible fohn influence on local temps

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

There was a couple of warm days towards the end of Sept 2011 which peaked on the 28th.



Tight isobar gradient coupled with specific wind direction suggest a possible fohn influence on local temps

25 in Dublin that day. Was there warmest September day there for around 100 years if I remember right.

DOCARCH

Recorded max. of 23.2c on 29.09.11. Would love a bit of that now!

Elmer Blooker

maquiladora wrote: »

25 in Dublin that day. Was there warmest September day there for around 100 years if I remember right.

Good memory! I had a look at Met.ie and it was the warmest day in Dublin for 105 years, the record stands at 27.6c on Sept 2nd 1906. The 25.7c in 2011 (28th) didn't come close to setting a new record but it was four weeks later in the month and after the equinox which makes a remarkable temperature for the time of year.
By the way today is the equinox but I doubt if we'll see anything like 2011 in the coming week.
The 12z GFS and UKMO identical at +144. I think western areas might see their highest temperatures of 2015 in the last week of September!!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015092312/gfs-0-144.png?12

Iancar29

Some extreme cherry picking on the 6z ensembles we get a hint of what would probably be the first wintry showers of the season if the following charts came to fruition.

Cold north westerly flow


An embedded trough would probably bring the first flakes to high ground in the N & NW



Let the madness begin...

Rikand

Iancar29 wrote: »

Some extreme cherry picking on the 6z ensembles we get a hint of what would probably be the first wintry showers of the season if the following charts came to fruition.

Cold north westerly flow


An embedded trough would probably bring the first flakes to high ground in the N & NW



Let the madness begin...

Iancar29

A proper wind to get the leaves off the tress perhaps?

Gonzo

hopefully won't happen, as much as I want whiteout conditions all winter, first week of October is too much too soon, would like another 3 weeks of 16+ temps before we settle into winter!

Iancar29

Always good to look at the CFS for some daydreaming :pac: :rolleyes:

Meteorite58

Settled weather showing up out to the far reaches of FI with a big High Pressure in over the country for a few days or more perhaps ( models fairly consistent the last few days).

Iancar29

Yep cool, dry, bright days and cold frosty/foggy nights ... BRING IT

With that setup its increasingly likely more of eastern Europe will get more snow in their forecasts. Will be interesting to watch the snow/ice advance this season!

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yep cool, dry, bright days and cold frosty/foggy nights ... BRING IT

With that setup its increasingly likely more of eastern Europe will get more snow in their forecasts. Will be interesting to watch the snow/ice advance this season!

It's that time of year again where we start to hear about those theories of the "rate of westward expansion of snowcover during October..." etc. Judah Cohen was it?

Trogdor

A little teaser at the end of tonight's GFS run (if you desperately scour the ensembles hard enough)

Harry Palmr

Anyone like to offer an theory as to why high pressure has been, with just brief interruption so persistent over the last month or so and why it appears to be hanging around for a while yet. If only we'd had this set up in June/July.

Meteorite58

Early days of next week looking cool, wet and windy....

patneve2

Well, interesting ECM in FI with cold high pressure that would bring unseasonable heavy frost at night. GFS, on the other hand, goes for more of what we had last year with PM air exiting Canada/Greenland and reaching our shores in brisk W winds.

Iancar29

patneve2 wrote: »

Well, interesting ECM in FI with cold high pressure that would bring unseasonable heavy frost at night. GFS, on the other hand, goes for more of what we had last year with PM air exiting Canada/Greenland and reaching our shores in brisk W winds.

Yeah the ECM looks like it could bring the first snow to high ground next week if its right. Northerly straight from the North Pole.

Darwin

Both the 12z runs of the GFS and UKMO showing quite a potent low for next Monday, centre of low goes north of us on GFS and south of us on UKMO. ECMWF making nothing of it at present, but the later 12z run should be interesting....

maquiladora

Darwin wrote: »

Both the 12z runs of the GFS and UKMO showing quite a potent low for next Monday, centre of low goes north of us on GFS and south of us on UKMO. ECMWF making nothing of it at present, but the later 12z run should be interesting....

12Z ECM doesn't develop it.

Hooter23

So its either potentially stormy or cold and frosty interesting whichever way it turns out...

Iancar29

Today's eye candy from the CFS :pac:

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Today's eye candy from the CFS :pac:

And a White Christmas in Saint-Tropez!

pauldry

Love the CFS (complete fantasy snow) Forecast;)

Oneiric 3

Be interesting to see if the latest ECM 240 chart verifies. I don't think I have ever seen such a huge and extensive anticyclone over Central Europe at this time of year.

gerrybhoy

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Be interesting to see if the latest ECM 240 chart verifies. I don't think I have ever seen such a huge and extensive anticyclone over Central Europe at this time of year.

right what does that mean

Gonzo

gerrybhoy wrote: »

right what does that mean

looks like summer fantasy land just 4 months too late.

dexter647

gerrybhoy wrote: »

right what does that mean

A bore fest for this time of year:(

Meteorite58

The end of next week sees a possible cold plunge down over Ireland. White tops on mountains perhaps ?

ninebeanrows

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The end of next week sees a possible cold plunge down over Ireland. White tops on mountains perhaps ?

Them charts aren't cold though. Maybe some returning PM airmass, but certainly no snow from them i wouldn't have thought.

FWVT

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The end of next week sees a possible cold plunge down over Ireland. White tops on mountains perhaps ?

Those colours refer to 500 hPa heights, not thickness or temperature. Just a deep low-pressure system

B17G

Some of the ensembles hinting at a possible storm next weekend.

maquiladora

FI looking real boring at the moment. :rolleyes:

Bring on any kind of interesting weather, please.

Rebelbrowser

If you want to be really depressed I just looked at the CFS all the way out to 21 January 2016. The coldest 850 uppers it forecasts between now and new year are a brief flirtation with -3's / -4's in early December. Most of the time uppers are well in excess of 0c. Its a bit better in Jan 2016 but still no -6's, let alone -8's......

And yes, I know its only the CFS.

maquiladora

Stormy conditions for the west coast around 144 hours on the 06Z GFS but the low will probably be weaker/further offshore on the next run so very much FI stuff.

maquiladora

Tail end of the 0Z GFS run. :P

arctictree

12z GFS still going for a cold theme but a bit earlier: