CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

rm212 · 08-04-2020 7:02pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Current EU thinking - from Guardian feed @17.26 There'll be a paper on it soon.

It’s kind of strange to talk about a “coordinated lifting” when every country has a completely different situation and are at different stages with the virus...

Martina1991 · 08-04-2020 7:04pm

JDD wrote:

So we can't rely on number of new positives as an indication of how well we are doing at social distancing/isolation/cocooning as a country. New positives are completely a product of how many tests results you are issuing, and we all know our issues there. Suffice to say that the 365 today is test results for people who took a test two weeks ago . And most of those people would have only taken the test a couple of days after symptoms showed up, and the average incubation period is five days. So the new cases today are people who got infected in or around the first weekend after the schools closed (14/15 March), and possible before that .

No it isn't.

At the briefing today it was said the case numbers included 99 positive cases from 1,532 tests that were carried out in Germany. That is a 6% positivity rate.
Those samples are from people in the community who are waiting the longest.

The other 266 positive cases came from those that were tested in hospital, healthcare workers, and a proportion of tests from the community.
Tests from hospitalised patients and healthcare workers are being turned around within a day or 2.

rodders999 · 08-04-2020 7:04pm

Can the amount of people coming in to the country on each flight or ferry be seen anywhere?

Genuinely curious as to how many (if any?) people entered the country today on flights from hotspot countries like Spain, Italy and the UK and if the number is considerable, then way aren’t people losing their **** about it in the same way they are about people travelling internally to holiday homes.

Field east · 08-04-2020 7:04pm

Deleted User wrote: »

The maters ICU is full...they've said as much

They are adding extra capacity in the hdu,but their icu is most deffo full

From my understanding , for example, while listening to a doctor who is based in the mater on radio this morn and in respect of handling Covid 19 virus cases, the patients needing intensive care , including respirators , the Maters ICU might be full but further patients needing intensive care are housed in the 18 bed HDU which also has respirators provided in it. And further parts of the hospital can be made available in an intensive care context if required. What we must remember is that there are much less machines/£services needed in a Covid context than might be needed when someone has had a triple bypass or some other serious surgery.
So the bottom line is that just because the ICU is full that the hospital cannot take any more patients. I am open to correction on the above but that is what I took from the interview with the Mater doctor

careless sherpa · 08-04-2020 7:09pm

Cavan general hospital seems to be in serious trouble. 70 doctors and nurses infected and the entire ground floor in quarantine

polesheep · 08-04-2020 7:09pm

KerryConnor wrote: »

Would anyone have an opinion when travel restrictions will be lifted? Waiting to go collect a puppy.

A puppy might be essential for your mental health. If so, go and get it.

ACitizenErased · 08-04-2020 7:12pm

retro:electro wrote: »

I was out walking the dog around my village earlier and I got caught in a line of people doing a guard of honour for someone who had died. I don’t think they died from the virus, but even if they didn’t, the funerals are all following the same formula these days. I stood aside as the hearse passed with a solitary five or six cars behind it, as the line of people each side clapped and sobbed. It was so... up close and personal. It honestly shook me and I got emotional as I walked away from it. Off the cars went, straight from the hospital to the graveyard, not even allowed the grace of a few prayers for comfort (whether you’re a believer or not, I’m not, but I find Irish funerals beautiful)
It was just so upsetting. And this is going to be par for the course now for anyone who finds themselves with a loss over the coming weeks/months.

As hard as it is to say goodbye to someone, I can’t even imagine how upsetting it is to not even be given the chance to say goodbye, to process it, to celebrate them and to give them a farewell. Ah Jesus it’s just so shlt.

My aunt passed away recently (not due to the virus) and was repatriated to Ireland by the Kevin Bell Trust. We were only allowed have 10 people at the funeral. The church livestreamed the mass to nearly 900 people, and all our neighbours lined the road by our house as their way of saying goodbye. Really touching.

tom1ie · 08-04-2020 7:12pm

polesheep wrote: »

A puppy might be essential for your mental health. If so, go and get it.

Ffs! That’s terrible advice. Stay in and don’t listen to this poster.
Getting a puppy is NOT essential.
Moronic post.

owlbethere · 08-04-2020 7:13pm

JDD wrote: »

Okay so back to figures.

So we can't rely on number of new positives as an indication of how well we are doing at social distancing/isolation/cocooning as a country. New positives are completely a product of how many tests results you are issuing, and we all know our issues there. Suffice to say that the 365 today is test results for people who took a test two weeks ago. And most of those people would have only taken the test a couple of days after symptoms showed up, and the average incubation period is five days. So the new cases today are people who got infected in or around the first weekend after the schools closed (14/15 March), and possible before that.

Number of deaths is a slightly better indicator, though it appears that our handling of infections in nursing homes is resulting in an unforeseen increase in our death rate. It would be much more informative if we knew how many of the deaths so far were of people who were not in a nursing home setting. That would give a better indicator of community transmission the population at large. But as far as I can see that figure is not available, and therefore the death rate is also not a great indicator.

ICU figures suffer from the same issue.

So is there any statistical figures that can be relied upon to give an indication of whether we are going up or plateauing?

Yes, I'm going to quote this because it's exactly what was going through my mind a few times.

I would like to see indications that the restrictions we have are working.

The virus hitting nursing homes would increase the death cases. I was thinking the same thing that if there was a breakdown or a separation of the death cases.

08-04-2020 7:14pm

careless sherpa wrote: »

Cavan general hospital seems to be in serious trouble. 70 doctors and nurses infected and the entire ground floor in quarantine

Jesus. My mum worked in Monaghan and then Cavan before retiring. She was thinking about going back because of this and I'm glad she hasn't with her age.

careless sherpa · 08-04-2020 7:16pm

Apparently dozens more staff in quarantine. Lucky she didn't go back

Humberto Salazar · 08-04-2020 7:18pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Current EU thinking - from Guardian feed @17.26 There'll be a paper on it soon.

Considering how disasterous so called EU coordination on this has been, best let individual countries sort it. Brussels should advise, but not instruct.

Happytuesdays · 08-04-2020 7:20pm

rodders999 wrote: »

Can the amount of people coming in to the country on each flight or ferry be seen anywhere?

Genuinely curious as to how many (if any?) people entered the country today on flights from hotspot countries like Spain, Italy and the UK and if the number is considerable, then way aren’t people losing their **** about it in the same way they are about people travelling internally to holiday homes.

There's still a considerable amount people using the ferries to and from the UK, from France not so many, but absolutely none of them are under any restrictions after they land here.

Just Saying · 08-04-2020 7:20pm

Martina1991 wrote: »

No it isn't.

At the briefing today it was said the case numbers included 99 positive cases from 1,532 tests that were carried out in Germany. That is a 6% positivity rate.
Those samples are from people in the community who are waiting the longest.

The other 266 positive cases came from those that were tested in hospital, healthcare workers, and a proportion of tests from the community.
Tests from hospitalised patients and healthcare workers are being turned around within a day or 2.

An earlier mention on the German lab tests said that up to Monday they had returned a total of 479 positives at a rate of 7.6%.

I think what has happened is a large proportion (if not all) of the backlog of the tests were sent to Germany as the positive rates are akin to those from our earlier test results.
The figures for Germany were not given yesterday (I think) but my crude maths which are using an estimate for Tuesday would indicate that approximately 10000 results have been received which included approximately 700 positives.

darem93 · 08-04-2020 7:21pm

Yeah the situation in Cavan General seems to be pretty bad. My aunt works there and I haven't been speaking to her since this whole thing started, but her son has cystic fibrosis so I'd imagine she's gone off work.

bekker · 08-04-2020 7:22pm

Agree with your post except for the assumption the the HSE has the figures, or even that the figures are available.

HSE will have figures form HSE internal systems but unless HSE were running the non-hospital establishment it wouldn't.

Dept of Health should have information but may only require quarterly or even annual reports of deaths certified for record.

The CSO would have them all ^eventually^ but they only compile for annual figures AFAIK.

The above is rather speculative but if look at the link below you can more clearly appreciate why that is the case given the 3 month time frame.

It would require a totally new information system for all Corners to have been put in place and there is no word of that.

https://www.gov.ie/en/service/49c66f-registering-a-death-in-ireland/#deaths-resulting-from-covid-19

Sorry, omitted to quote blackcard's post

Not in Kansas · 08-04-2020 7:22pm

I'd just like to address a few things about the commentary on nursing homes as I am closely involved with quite a few of them.

The opinion that people go into nursing homes to die and therefore were near death anyway is simplistic. Many people live for many years within a nursing home. That's why they are called homes! Far more people than you realise are on the young side and able bodied but may have ended up there through acquired brain injury and other happenings that meant they could no longer live alone. Several also lead quite independent lives and are free to come and go so lockdown has been very tough for that cohort. There are of course many that go into nursing home care at the latter stages of disease but not everyone is as infirm as you may imagine.

Every few pages or so it seems somebody asks how nursing homes are so badly affected if they are on lockdown. The short answer is because the staff can't move in! To truly be on lockdown nobody could leave or enter. All staff are going home to families of their own and then coming in to deliver high contact care often with basic PPE. It's very hard to control any infectious disease once in. Long-term residents are well practiced at self-isolating though as most nursing homes face a few weeks of confinement to rooms when the winter vomiting bug does the rounds each year.

Achasanai · 08-04-2020 7:23pm

Refractions wrote: »

I didn't see all the press conference but there seemed to be a vibe of 'look, testing/contact tracing doesnt really matter like we thought it did." There was talk of 15000 tests a day while ago, with 6-lane drive thru testing centres etc. Has there been a change of tack?

I get the impression that the change in the message resulted primarily from a realisation (not stated, of course) that there was no way we could get anywhere near that kind of testing. It's worrying, because from fairly early on the message was the more we test, the better we control the virus.

I felt - after a very rocky start - that the government and the HSE were handling things very well up to a point a few weeks back. The briefings from the HSE no longer inspire a huge amount of confidence (for me, personally) and there seems to be a couple of (important) points that the guidelines being issued by the government and the HSE directly contradict guidelines being issued by the WHO (primarily testing and masks).

Having said that, Singapore - which was previously the model for how to handle the virus - is experiencing a worrying surge in cases.

Beasty · 08-04-2020 7:24pm

Amirani wrote: »

Ireland are reporting anyone with Covid-19 on their death cert in the daily numbers that are released.

Where have you seen this?

rm212 · 08-04-2020 7:24pm

I keep seeing groups of people - young lads, kids, adult neighbours (all ages) walking around the estate together today, right next to each other - in close proximity, heading towards the local park. Kids walking and skipping holding each others hands...

fullstop · 08-04-2020 7:24pm

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Maybe the news is wrong as well

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0408/1129248-dublin-mater-icu/

So ICU is full at one hospital in the country? Yet you come in here and say “ICU full” as if it applies to all hospitals?

Ace2007 · 08-04-2020 7:26pm

blackcard wrote: »

I agree, the HSE should provide a breakdown of the number of deaths that occurred in residential care and nursing homes compared to hospitals and the general community. Obviously, the HSE have these figures and it is informing their use of resources.

However if the rest of us had these figures, I think that it would be beneficial. If a high number of deaths were associated with nursing homes and the remaining deaths were low, we might know that the present lockdown measures were working and would boost morale to be able to deal with an extension of the lockdown. If the deaths in hospitals was high, we would know that we have to be more rigid with the lockdown.

The only reasons for not giving us the breakdown may be that the low level of testing and the fact that we are relatively early in the lockdown could lead to the general public jumping to the wrong conclusion and thinking that we could relax restrictions too early.

It could also be that if we knew that there are a high level of deaths in nursing homes, it could cause people with family in nursing homes to panic. I think however that we are mature enough to receive the actual position and act appropriately.

I would go a step further and say that it would cause more distress to those in the nursing home, there was an article that I was reading in relation to a nursing home that say a lot of the residents like to watch the 6pm news because it's what they have always done, now imagine if that number that passed away was plastered on the news, and it said that x% that passed away was from a nursing home setting, (and assuming x was over 50%), that wouldn't provide any sort comfort to those in the nursing home.

owlbethere · 08-04-2020 7:26pm

careless sherpa wrote: »

Cavan general hospital seems to be in serious trouble. 70 doctors and nurses infected and the entire ground floor in quarantine

That's sad news. I hope they all get better and wishing them all well in Cavan.

TOMs WIFE · 08-04-2020 7:27pm

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

My point is any type of growth is not good. How can anyone say a 6% growth is good? It's horrible thinking.

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

ICU is full and they can't take in new patients now. That's the real problem now.

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Get real, wake up to what's happening around you, will you? What makes you think Ireland is going great?

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Every country is fcuked, including us.

Away With The Fairies wrote:

I don't know what version I want. Knowing or not knowing.

Not knowing and spreading it. Knowing and thinking am I going to die

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I'm staying away from this side of boards. It's depressing news ...

Looking at most of your posts, you seem to be at your wits end. I suggest you take your own advice in the last post quoted above.

rodders999 · 08-04-2020 7:28pm

Happytuesdays wrote: »

There's still a considerable amount people using the ferries to and from the UK, from France not so many, but absolutely none of them are under any restrictions after they land here.

With our over 70’s cocooning, deprived of any physical contact with their loved ones, a >2km travel ban bar essentials on the rest of the population and the vast majority of our economy shut down some to never reopen having people enter the country is absolute insanity.

NH2013 · 08-04-2020 7:28pm

rodders999 wrote: »

Can the amount of people coming in to the country on each flight or ferry be seen anywhere?

Genuinely curious as to how many (if any?) people entered the country today on flights from hotspot countries like Spain, Italy and the UK and if the number is considerable, then way aren’t people losing their **** about it in the same way they are about people travelling internally to holiday homes.

I believe the total number of people arriving at Dublin airport today is less than 40 in total, from London, New York and Chicago being the only flights today.

Everyone arriving will be required to quarantine for 14 days.

Don't know about numbers for ferries, but given that the ferry companies are looking to suspend services I can't imagine it's many more, and also would be required to quarantine.

woohoo!!! · 08-04-2020 7:29pm

There's a strong possibility that ICU capacity will be reached within the next week or so unfortunately.

Beasty · 08-04-2020 7:30pm

JDD wrote: »

There's hardly any point in contact tracing anymore, is there? Not until the new infections get back down to 30/40 a day and that's with a comprehensive testing program. Contact tracing is a waste of time now.

To a limited extent I think it remains valuable. I saw a consultant on Monday and I'm sure that if I was either suspected of or tested positive they would want to trace back to him and any other medical staff I had interacted with (such as the guy who took an x-ray of my jaw and had to get close up to my face to set it up properly)

Away With The Fairies · 08-04-2020 7:30pm

careless sherpa wrote: »

Cavan general hospital seems to be in serious trouble. 70 doctors and nurses infected and the entire ground floor in quarantine

Ah go away out of that, where's your positivity?

Just Saying · 08-04-2020 7:30pm

Beasty wrote: »

Where have you seen this?

I am nearly sure the CMO has stated this.

CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

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