Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

mloc123

suicide_circus wrote: »

But how can this be? Schools are not a source of transmission

That graph shows cases have pretty much doubled in all age groups up to 44...

Boggles

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I've been using this model. You need to assemble the daily data in Ireland yourself. I use the swab data from the hub. Currently getting a r estimate of 1.03. let me know if your calculations show something different.

https://github.com/rtcovidlive/covid-model

That's the model Nolan uses?

:pac:

Get up the yard.

We will be out of level 5 by Wednesday so.

pjohnson

CofMixture wrote: »

The fact it's happening on a societal level like we're back in junior infants is worrying yeah.

Well if people didnt behave like junior infants they wouldnt need to treated like junior infants.

s1ippy

ZX7R wrote: »

There was an interesting article on the German and polish Media during the week quoting Angela merrkle saying that they will have uncontrollable spread of the virus by the end of next week, ask will further restrictions be implement she replied that it appears the majority of german nationals have decided to live there lives with covid and accept the consequences of that.
I didn't see any reports on Irish media in relation to it

Personally I hate that and it seems very risky, even for a health system that's very good like Germany's.

Hypothetically if our health system was 3-4 times more robust, we could tell people to work away.

It's a bit of a selfish approach by each German/Polish person who decides they couldn't be bothered with it anymore. But then it's a bit of a cop out from the governments who didn't do more to stop it from getting out of control.

We've got a very long time with this virus left, I'm sure the people who want it to be left run out of control will have their day in the sun too, it's only fair and it looks like it's pretty feckin inevitable given the way covid is mismanaged.

MerlinSouthDub

Boggles wrote: »

:pac:

Get up the yard.

We will be out of level 5 by Wednesday so.

Not what I'm saying at all. An R of one leaves us with stable cases numbers, but at too high a level. We need level 5 to reduce case numbers. It is great news that level 3 is enough to stabilise, but we need more.

Bobeagleburger

Nephet have a target of 0.5 as the R number after the 6 weeks I read somewhere

ZX7R

s1ippy wrote: »

Personally I hate that and it seems very risky, even for a health system that's very good like Germany's.

Hypothetically if our health system was 3-4 times more robust, we could tell people to work away.

It's a bit of a selfish approach by each German/Polish person who decides they couldn't be bothered with it anymore. But then it's a bit of a cop out from the governments who didn't do more to stop it from getting out of control.

We've got a very long time with this virus left, I'm sure the people who want it to be left run out of control will have their day in the sun too, it's only fair and it looks like it's pretty feckin inevitable given the way covid is mismanaged.

Hard to know what will happen no matter what side of the fence it's a scary time

Boggles

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Not what I'm saying at all. An R of one leaves us with stable cases numbers, but at too high a level. We need level 5 to reduce case numbers. It is great news that level 3 is enough to stabilise, but we need more.

What you are saying that in 3 days the Reproductive number has dropped by .3 or .4.

You offered zero evidence for this apart from a link to someones model that you claimed Nolan uses.

Obviously in reality the reproductive is based on far more variables than 3 days of headline data.

Widdensushi

I guess we will see Tuesday

MerlinSouthDub

Widdensushi wrote: »

I guess we will see Tuesday

Yes, let's see next week. Hope to see cases numbers staying stable (or perhaps even starting to fall) over the next few days

Happydays2020

6 wrote: »

Nephet have a target of 0.5 as the R number after the 6 weeks I read somewhere

I think the Govt will definitely move to Level 3 after the 6 weeks, unless there are outlying areas which still have high numbers who will remain at level 5 perhaps for another week.

They also need to have the airport testing regime in place by early December to allow people come home.

Boggles

Widdensushi wrote: »

I guess we will see Tuesday

I doubt it, Thursday typically is when Nolan gives his presentations.

But the point remains, it's farcical and remedial in the extreme to look at 3 headline days of data and pretend to know what the reproductive value is.

caveat emptor

mloc123 wrote: »

That graph shows cases have pretty much doubled in all age groups up to 44...

Yes but there has been variations in previous weeks. Looks to have accelerated in the younger groups. Smaller absolute numbers but we are all familiar with numbers when they double week on week.

MerlinSouthDub

Boggles wrote: »

I doubt it, Thursday typically is when Nolan gives his presentations.

But the point remains, it's farcical and remedial in the extreme to look at 3 headline days of data and pretend to know what the reproductive value is.

Nobody knows what the reproductive value is. We can only estimate it using a variety of different statistical models, using the latest available data.

Blondini

CofMixture wrote: »

That fact that you're being mocked for this boggles my mind. I've come around to thinking recently that there's a whole section of our society that crave being told what to think and do - that a part of them love these harsh restrictions and the blame game that goes with it.

Keeping out my personal fcucking space in a deli queue qualifies as "harsh restrictions" ?

Thought it was just good solid civilised human behaviour myself.

Bobeagleburger

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Nobody knows what the reproductive value is. We can only estimate it using a variety of different statistical models, using the latest available data.

Surely someone knows.

What model do they use? It's hardly top secret I'd imagine!

Blondini

6 wrote: »

Surely someone knows.

What model do they use? It's hardly top secret I'd imagine!

Mr. Tony knows but he's keeping the big reveal for his appearance on Graham Norton.

caveat emptor

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Nobody knows what the reproductive value is. We can only estimate it using a variety of different statistical models, using the latest available data.

The 777 number while nice looks a bit like an outlier. We'll know if a few days I guess. The problem with looking just at the R value is that one returning couple from a weekend away (which they are perfectly entitled to take) can blow up your R number in one weekend. Restrictions at level 5 help reduce the probability of these events but it remains to be seen.

You can see in the LEA data that a local area can get bad very quickly. My intuition is that schools being open will offset any effect of adults restricting movements etc. Hope I'm wrong. Probably resulting in steady state.
I'd expect a dip due to midterm.

Fr_Dougal

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The reproductive rate has dropped to 1, and the schools are open.

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Nobody knows what the reproductive value is. We can only estimate it using a variety of different statistical models, using the latest available data.

Will you just give up. Christ.

MerlinSouthDub

6 wrote: »

Surely someone knows.

What model do they use? It's hardly top secret I'd imagine!

They use 5 different models, all the information is published. But my point is that they are models, they are only estimates. The reproductive rate will vary depending on the part of population infected, humidity, temperature, number of contacts etc. All we can ever do is estimate it, it will change over time for lots of reasons.

niallo27

I actually genuinely think there will be people disappointed in here if the cases are not back over 1k today.

Blondini

niallo27 wrote: »

I actually genuinely think there will be people disappointed in here of the cases are not back over 1k today.

Don't be so stupid.

MerlinSouthDub

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Will you just give up. Christ.

I apologise for saying the rate had dropped to 1 when I meant the latest estimate of the rate had dropped to 1.

Paddygreen

The Gardaí have discovered a shebeen down in Clare. Taps, kegs, a pool table, a dart board, beer mats, Beer, a moonlighting barman trying to get out a bathroom window. What absolute vermin. Setting up a drinking den where the only thing you are guaranteed to be served with your libation is death wearing the grim cloak of covid19. When will people realize they fun + Covid19 = agonising Death. The science is settled.

cnocbui

suicide_circus wrote: »

I think the majority of people on here questioning the rolling lockdown model are still largely complying with the restrictions as it's the only show in town really.

It's not the only game in town.

Is this the alternative to lockdowns? Poland tells over-70s and the vulnerable to stay at home and will deliver food to their homes as Europe sees cases double to 200,000 in ten days

Sweden aren't panicking the way we are.

Boggles

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I apologise for saying the rate had dropped to 1 when I meant the latest estimate of the rate had dropped to 1.

You mean your latest estimate which is based on primarily a fundamental lack of understanding of how the reproductive number is actually calculated.

niallo27

Blondini wrote: »

Don't be so stupid.

People love saying I told you so, don't be so naive.

prunudo

niallo27 wrote: »

I actually genuinely think there will be people disappointed in here if the cases are not back over 1k today.

Tbh, given the swab numbers yesterday I'd be surprised if they're under 1k today. Not that i don't want them to be, just don't think we'll see true a reduction so quickly. Minimum a week before we see any meaningful trend.

niallo27

Paddygreen wrote: »

The Gardaí have discovered a shebeen down in Clare. Taps, kegs, a pool table, a dart board, beer mats, Beer, a moonlighting barman trying to get out a bathroom window. What absolute vermin. Setting up a drinking den where the only thing you are guaranteed to be served with your libation is death wearing the grim cloak of covid19. When will people realize they fun + Covid19 = agonising Death. The science is settled.

Any address for this place so I can make sure its closed.

cnocbui

Paddygreen wrote: »

The Gardaí have discovered a shebeen down in Clare. Taps, kegs, a pool table, a dart board, beer mats, Beer, a moonlighting barman trying to get out a bathroom window. What absolute vermin. Setting up a drinking den where the only thing you are guaranteed to be served with your libation is death wearing the grim cloak of covid19. When will people realize they fun + Covid19 = agonising Death. The science is settled.

Dying from a 'whoops, to late, sorry' cancer diagnosis is an even more agonising death.