Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

MerlinSouthDub · 24-10-2020 10:27AM

Boggles wrote: »

Sorry "we"?

Da Fuq?

You mean you have pulled an R number out of you arsé?

Show your work if that isn't the case.

If you don't think 3 more days of flat cases numbers will reduce the estimate of the reproductive rate, then I suggest you read the details of the models Dr Nolan uses. It is all publicly available.

Boggles · 24-10-2020 10:28AM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

If you don't think 3 more days of flat cases numbers will reduce the estimate of the reproductive rate, then I suggest you read the details of the models Dr Nolan uses. It is all publicly available.

I didn't suggest anything.

You have declared the reproductive number to be at 1.

I want you to back that up with whatever modelling you have done to come to that figure.

It's a simple enough request, so in your own good time.

CofMixture · 24-10-2020 10:29AM

Trouser Snake wrote: »

Covid compliance officer in the local petrol station yesterday on a power trip lining everyone up exactly on the spots in the deli queue.
Tensions were needlessly heightened by her carry on, people were socially distancing just fine before she intervened.

That fact that you're being mocked for this boggles my mind. I've come around to thinking recently that there's a whole section of our society that crave being told what to think and do - that a part of them love these harsh restrictions and the blame game that goes with it.

s1ippy · 24-10-2020 10:34AM

CofMixture wrote: »

That fact that you're being mocked for this boggles my mind. I've come around to thinking recently that there's a whole section of our society that crave being told what to think and do - that a part of them love these harsh restrictions and the blame game that goes with it.

You're probably right; in my part time job as a dominiatrix, business is absolutely booming.

kwestfan08 · 24-10-2020 10:36AM

mean gene wrote: »

I actually don't see the problem with people doing their own contacting lazy gits

Me either tbh. Like if you get your positive test do you just throw your phone out the window? I'd like to think if I had it I'd ring or text people I was in contact with over the previous couple of days and give them the heads up.

Loafing Oaf · 24-10-2020 10:38AM

mean gene wrote: »

I actually don't see the problem with people doing their own contacting lazy gits

Because it can be awkward and embarrassing, particularly if you initiated the contact, so a lot of people will chicken out.

Boggles · 24-10-2020 10:38AM

CofMixture wrote: »

That fact that you're being mocked for this boggles my mind. I've come around to thinking recently that there's a whole section of our society that crave being told what to think and do - that a part of them love these harsh restrictions and the blame game that goes with it.

They were asked to stand on a spot on the floor.

That is some serious snowflaking if that "anecdote" has upset you

suicide_circus · 24-10-2020 10:41AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Cases doubling week on week in the 10-14 age group and almost doubling in the 15-19.
Mid term coming at the right time.

But how can this be? Schools are not a source of transmission

seamus · 24-10-2020 10:41AM

kwestfan08 wrote: »

Me either tbh. Like if you get your positive test do you just throw your phone out the window? I'd like to think if I had it I'd ring or text people I was in contact with over the previous couple of days and give them the heads up.

Aside from the fact that many people would feel uncomfortable making the call, the tracing system allows to track a chain of infections, to better understand how and where it was spreading.

The infamous couple who infected 56 others could only have been identified through a formal tracing system.

WoollyRedHat · 24-10-2020 10:41AM

s1ippy wrote: »

You're probably right; in my part time job as a dominiatrix, business is absolutely booming.

Apparently Irish political parties are big into the old whip.

ZX7R · 24-10-2020 10:44AM

s1ippy wrote: »

I believe that's called "pulling an Irish".

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/irish-media-needs-to-take-a-look-at-how-it-is-covering-pandemic-1.4389265
Whilst I agree that the media are definitely contributing to the anxiety people feel, it's really more the contention that actually does exist between NPHET, HSE and government that gets people on edge.

Also I want to know what their metric is for saying mental health problems didn't rise during the last lockdown, because personally I'm a fucking shadow of my former self even if I didn't access any mental health services; not to be flippant, but I think about suicide on the regular these days, and worry about many friends and family who are in similarly fragile places. With no social interaction, no entertainment, the job losses and evictions on the way, winter, there's absolutely no way most people are getting out unscathed and it's probably healthier to acknowledge the mental scars.

Weekly or bi-weekly figures, I don't really know about that. Yeah could work I guess. I dunno.

There was an interesting article on the German and polish Media during the week quoting Angela merrkle saying that they will have uncontrollable spread of the virus by the end of next week, ask will further restrictions be implement she replied that it appears the majority of german nationals have decided to live there lives with covid and accept the consequences of that.
I didn't see any reports on Irish media in relation to it

MerlinSouthDub · 24-10-2020 10:45AM

Boggles wrote: »

I didn't suggest anything.

You have declared the reproductive number to be at 1.

I want you to back that up with whatever modelling you have done to come to that figure.

It's a simple enough request, so in your own good time.

I've been using this model. You need to assemble the daily data in Ireland yourself. I use the swab data from the hub. Currently getting a r estimate of 1.03. let me know if your calculations show something different.

https://github.com/rtcovidlive/covid-model

CofMixture · 24-10-2020 10:45AM

Boggles wrote: »

They were asked to stand on a spot on the floor.

That is some serious snowflaking if that "anecdote" has upset you

The fact it's happening on a societal level like we're back in junior infants is worrying yeah.

mloc123 · 24-10-2020 10:46AM

suicide_circus wrote: »

But how can this be? Schools are not a source of transmission

That graph shows cases have pretty much doubled in all age groups up to 44...

Boggles · 24-10-2020 10:46AM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I've been using this model. You need to assemble the daily data in Ireland yourself. I use the swab data from the hub. Currently getting a r estimate of 1.03. let me know if your calculations show something different.

https://github.com/rtcovidlive/covid-model

That's the model Nolan uses?

:pac:

Get up the yard.

We will be out of level 5 by Wednesday so.

pjohnson · 24-10-2020 10:47AM

CofMixture wrote: »

The fact it's happening on a societal level like we're back in junior infants is worrying yeah.

Well if people didnt behave like junior infants they wouldnt need to treated like junior infants.

s1ippy · 24-10-2020 10:48AM

ZX7R wrote: »

There was an interesting article on the German and polish Media during the week quoting Angela merrkle saying that they will have uncontrollable spread of the virus by the end of next week, ask will further restrictions be implement she replied that it appears the majority of german nationals have decided to live there lives with covid and accept the consequences of that.
I didn't see any reports on Irish media in relation to it

Personally I hate that and it seems very risky, even for a health system that's very good like Germany's.

Hypothetically if our health system was 3-4 times more robust, we could tell people to work away.

It's a bit of a selfish approach by each German/Polish person who decides they couldn't be bothered with it anymore. But then it's a bit of a cop out from the governments who didn't do more to stop it from getting out of control.

We've got a very long time with this virus left, I'm sure the people who want it to be left run out of control will have their day in the sun too, it's only fair and it looks like it's pretty feckin inevitable given the way covid is mismanaged.

MerlinSouthDub · 24-10-2020 10:48AM

Boggles wrote: »

:pac:

Get up the yard.

We will be out of level 5 by Wednesday so.

Not what I'm saying at all. An R of one leaves us with stable cases numbers, but at too high a level. We need level 5 to reduce case numbers. It is great news that level 3 is enough to stabilise, but we need more.

24-10-2020 10:51AM

Nephet have a target of 0.5 as the R number after the 6 weeks I read somewhere

ZX7R · 24-10-2020 10:53AM

s1ippy wrote: »

Personally I hate that and it seems very risky, even for a health system that's very good like Germany's.

Hypothetically if our health system was 3-4 times more robust, we could tell people to work away.

It's a bit of a selfish approach by each German/Polish person who decides they couldn't be bothered with it anymore. But then it's a bit of a cop out from the governments who didn't do more to stop it from getting out of control.

We've got a very long time with this virus left, I'm sure the people who want it to be left run out of control will have their day in the sun too, it's only fair and it looks like it's pretty feckin inevitable given the way covid is mismanaged.

Hard to know what will happen no matter what side of the fence it's a scary time

Boggles · 24-10-2020 10:53AM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Not what I'm saying at all. An R of one leaves us with stable cases numbers, but at too high a level. We need level 5 to reduce case numbers. It is great news that level 3 is enough to stabilise, but we need more.

What you are saying that in 3 days the Reproductive number has dropped by .3 or .4.

You offered zero evidence for this apart from a link to someones model that you claimed Nolan uses.

Obviously in reality the reproductive is based on far more variables than 3 days of headline data.

Widdensushi · 24-10-2020 10:57AM

I guess we will see Tuesday

MerlinSouthDub · 24-10-2020 10:58AM

Widdensushi wrote: »

I guess we will see Tuesday

Yes, let's see next week. Hope to see cases numbers staying stable (or perhaps even starting to fall) over the next few days

Happydays2020 · 24-10-2020 10:59AM

6 wrote: »

Nephet have a target of 0.5 as the R number after the 6 weeks I read somewhere

I think the Govt will definitely move to Level 3 after the 6 weeks, unless there are outlying areas which still have high numbers who will remain at level 5 perhaps for another week.

They also need to have the airport testing regime in place by early December to allow people come home.

Boggles · 24-10-2020 11:00AM

Widdensushi wrote: »

I guess we will see Tuesday

I doubt it, Thursday typically is when Nolan gives his presentations.

But the point remains, it's farcical and remedial in the extreme to look at 3 headline days of data and pretend to know what the reproductive value is.

caveat emptor · 24-10-2020 11:04AM

mloc123 wrote: »

That graph shows cases have pretty much doubled in all age groups up to 44...

Yes but there has been variations in previous weeks. Looks to have accelerated in the younger groups. Smaller absolute numbers but we are all familiar with numbers when they double week on week.

MerlinSouthDub · 24-10-2020 11:05AM

Boggles wrote: »

I doubt it, Thursday typically is when Nolan gives his presentations.

But the point remains, it's farcical and remedial in the extreme to look at 3 headline days of data and pretend to know what the reproductive value is.

Nobody knows what the reproductive value is. We can only estimate it using a variety of different statistical models, using the latest available data.

Blondini · 24-10-2020 11:10AM

CofMixture wrote: »

That fact that you're being mocked for this boggles my mind. I've come around to thinking recently that there's a whole section of our society that crave being told what to think and do - that a part of them love these harsh restrictions and the blame game that goes with it.

Keeping out my personal fcucking space in a deli queue qualifies as "harsh restrictions" ?

Thought it was just good solid civilised human behaviour myself.

24-10-2020 11:11AM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Nobody knows what the reproductive value is. We can only estimate it using a variety of different statistical models, using the latest available data.

Surely someone knows.

What model do they use? It's hardly top secret I'd imagine!

Blondini · 24-10-2020 11:13AM

6 wrote: »

Surely someone knows.

What model do they use? It's hardly top secret I'd imagine!

Mr. Tony knows but he's keeping the big reveal for his appearance on Graham Norton.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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