How will schools be able to go back in September?

trapp

Dublingirl80 wrote: »

Yes they are. Many many people have died of all ages, under 20s being the least common. Look up some statistics. Even when it's small percentages of numbers it's of huge numbers, its lots of people. And it's also not the point because people of any age of any underlying health condition should all be protected.

It is mostly older people.

Fact.

Others do die but mostly older people.

Dublingirl80

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ok. So are we just waiting for a vaccine that might take a year IF everything goes to plan? Then mass produce the vaccine and roll out and administer it to everyone. So stay in lockdown to minimise the virus transmission until about this time next year. Is that what you think the plan probably is?

I'll put it this way, If that saves lives then that's better than people contracting this virus that could otherwise have avoided it.

Dublingirl80

trapp wrote: »

It is mostly older people.

Fact.

Others do die but mostly older people.

I

Its majority in the older age category. And yet this virus does not discriminate. People of all ages have died from this unfortunately. It's horrific and in countries with numbers like 15000 deaths it is still a huge number.

There are lots and lots of reasons why we aren’t going to stay in lockdown for a year or more like some of you want.

We’d be economically depressed for one. Which would kill way more than Covid 19 will.

I’m not talking about 2008 type recession. Back to the dark ages.

El_Duderino 09

trapp wrote: »

I think we have to get back to some sort of normal soon as waiting for a safe vaccine could be years away and the human impact of the lockdown could be grave.

However, as I've said, presuming the virus remains, it will take schools until January at the very earliest to be ready to reopen.

At that stage hospitals should be more prepared in terms of capacity too.

I think the herd immunity is the obvious way to go. Keep transmissions as high as the health service can possibly deal with and get through it as quickly as possible.

I’d agree hat waiting for a vaccine is too risky. Might not be ready for years. So I’d agree, manage the rate at which we all get it and we can all use the health service if we need it.

People are burying their hear in the sand if they think we can eliminate the virus by simply stopping it spreading so it dies out. No government is even pretending to be aiming for that. So what are they aiming for? Managed herd immunity and hope a vaccine is developed in the next couple of years.

khalessi

trapp wrote: »

It is mostly older people.

Fact.

Others do die but mostly older people.

I wouldnt use that as a reason. WOuld you pick your parents or grandparents to die. SImon Harris has said the ages are between 32 and 103, there are 16 new born babies with it and a number of children, opening the schools will be a delicate balance in managing the reproduction rate of the virus and maintaining it below 1%

Dublingirl80

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I think the herd immunity is the obvious way to go. Keep transmissions as high as the health service can possibly deal with and get through it as quickly as possible.

I’d agree hat waiting for a vaccine is too risky. Might not be ready for years. So I’d agree, manage the rate at which we all get it and we can all use the health service if we need it.

People are burying their hear in the sand if they think we can eliminate the virus by simply stopping it spreading so it dies out. No government is even pretending to be aiming for that. So what are they aiming for? Managed herd immunity and hope a vaccine is developed in the next couple of years.

Boris Johnson thought herd immunity was a great idea also and then he changed his mind and eventually ended up in icu himself. Nobody knows what will happen and there is no point in bickering. Maybe those who wish like yourself could volunteer to be the ones to take the risk first if it's such a great theory. Gamble with your own lives instead of others.

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There are lots and lots of reasons why we aren’t going to stay in lockdown for a year or more like some of you want.

We’d be economically depressed for one. Which would kill way more than Covid 19 will.

I’m not talking about 2008 type recession. Back to the dark ages.

So opening things up will speed up transmission. Schools might be used as one way to speed up transmission and then they’d be shut down again once they’ve achieved the goal of raising transmissions to the desired rate.

If schools are reopened, I’d expect it to be to manage transmissions rather than hoping to actually stay open for the year to teach the syllabus.

Dublingirl80

Dublingirl80 wrote: »

Boris Johnson thought herd immunity was a great idea also and then he changed his mind and eventually ended up in icu himself. Nobody knows what will happen and there is no point in bickering. Maybe those who wish like yourself could volunteer to be the ones to take the risk first if it's such a great theory. Gamble with your own lives instead of others.

Can I also add people with savings may just bide their time and lay low, take leave from work or leave their jobs and wait it out.

khalessi

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I think the herd immunity is the obvious way to go. Keep transmissions as high as the health service can possibly deal with and get through it as quickly as possible.

I’d agree hat waiting for a vaccine is too risky. Might not be ready for years. So I’d agree, manage the rate at which we all get it and we can all use the health service if we need it.

People are burying their hear in the sand if they think we can eliminate the virus by simply stopping it spreading so it dies out. No government is even pretending to be aiming for that. So what are they aiming for? Managed herd immunity and hope a vaccine is developed in the next couple of years.

Simon Harris even said today this virus is not going away, it will be an attempt to control it until a vaccine is found. Britain and Sweden are discovering the herd immunity approach is not the way to go. Offering up our elders is not the way either

CruelSummer

There is a balancing act to be sorted in the next few weeks if we can get the transmission rate below 1%. Personally I don’t think we needed to extend the current lockdown at this same draconian level for the next 3 weeks as I think the only way we can get out of this is for some people to contract the virus in a manageable way. Studies from Germany and Iceland of towns where mass testing has been carried out suggests at least 40% of people are asymptomatic.
Children need education and schools, yes they must be made safe. But there will come a time where a year out of education for some children may be the straw that breaks the camels back for them...even missing this term will be huge academically.

Dublingirl80

khalessi wrote: »

Simon Harris even said today this virus is not going away, it will be an attempt to control it until a vaccine is found. Britain and Sweden are discovering the herd immunity approach is not the way to go. Offering up our elders is not the way either

I agree. Everyone is hoping that science will find a solution sooner than we think. Nothing wrong with a bit of hope.

Dublingirl80

Dublingirl80 wrote: »

Boris Johnson thought herd immunity was a great idea also and then he changed his mind and eventually ended up in icu himself. Nobody knows what will happen and there is no point in bickering. Maybe those who wish like yourself could volunteer to be the ones to take the risk first if it's such a great theory. Gamble with your own lives instead of others.

What’s your plan then? Stay locked down until this all blows over? What if it just comes back the minute we go back outside? What happens when we as a country start running out of money?

Beasty

trapp - do not post in this thread again

Dublingirl80

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What’s your plan then? Stay locked down until this all blows over? What if it just comes back the minute we go back outside? What happens when we as a country start running out of money?

I don't have a plan. All I have is hope and I personally prioritise health. It's times like this jt is a pity everyone doesn't have a form of rainy day fund taken from their salary each month only accessible in cases of emergency like this one. Then money wise people could survive for a while at least.

El_Duderino 09

Dublingirl80 wrote: »

Boris Johnson thought herd immunity was a great idea also and then he changed his mind and eventually ended up in icu himself. Nobody knows what will happen and there is no point in bickering. Maybe those who wish like yourself could volunteer to be the ones to take the risk first if it's such a great theory. Gamble with your own lives instead of others.

It’s not bickering, it’s looking at what’s going on around us. We are aiming for herd immunity. The health services in Ireland and the uk aren’t over capacity yet so they’re managing it fine. This is a disease and it will kill people. That’s going to happen.

Johnson will continue with the herd immunity plan just as Leo will. Whether they use schools to help with transmissions remains to be seen. They won’t just keep us in lockdown until there’s a vaccine because the vaccine might take years or might never come.

Btw, I haven’t advocated for either approach, I’m describing what is happening right now in front of you and me.

I know you haven’t thought about what the plan is but I’d urge you to think about what’s happening in front of you. Why do you think they might consider lifting some restrictions on 5May? Do you think they could lift restrictions without transmission rates increasing?

khalessi

Deleted User wrote: »

What’s your plan then? Stay locked down until this all blows over? What if it just comes back the minute we go back outside? What happens when we as a country start running out of money?

THe plan at the minute is to wait 3 weeks and get the reproduction rate of infection below 1%. When that happens restrictions can begin to be relaxed and keep the levels maintained.

It will come back as Korea has shown they have 116 recovered people reinfected but it is to manage to keep it stable so hospitals are not overwhelmed and people can receive treatment, a fine balancing act.

ALong with this schools will probably be staggered open slowly but each school will have to do so safely according to NPHET guidance

Dublingirl80

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

It’s not bickering, it’s looking at what’s going on around us. We are aiming for herd immunity. The health services in Ireland and the uk aren’t over capacity yet so they’re managing it fine. This isn’t a disease and it will kill people. That’s going to happen.

Johnson will continue with the herd immunity plan just as Leo will. Whether they use schools to help with transmissions remains to be seen. They won’t just keep us in lockdown until there’s a vaccine because the vaccine might take years or might never come.

Btw, I haven’t advocated for either approach, I’m describing what is happening right now in front of you and me.

I know you haven’t thought about what the plan is but I’d urge you to think about what’s happening in front of you. Why do you think they might consider lifting some restrictions on 5May? Do you think they could lift restrictions without transmission rates increasing?

I've clearly thought about it there is just no way of knowing. Too many variables. So they try to stop transmission at the moment and then speed up transmission? Why? That's rubbish, the goal will never be to speed up transmission at the risk of people's lives. That phrase is just wrong it is the opposite of what everyone is trying to do.

El_Duderino 09

khalessi wrote: »

Simon Harris even said today this virus is not going away, it will be an attempt to control it until a vaccine is found. Britain and Sweden are discovering the herd immunity approach is not the way to go. Offering up our elders is not the way either

What do you think “ control it until a vaccine is found“ means? Do you think we will all stay in lockdown until a vaccine is available in a year, or 2 years or 5 years or maybe longer? Seriously, it’s important to be realistic about it.

We are aiming for herd immunity whether that’s what we call it or not. We might need to cocoon the vulnerable people for as long as it takes and if they choose to do it, but the rest of us will just have to become immune sooner or later.

Dublingirl80

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

What do you think “ control it until a vaccine is found“ means? Do you think we will all stay in lockdown until a vaccine is available in a year, or 2 years or 5 years or maybe longer? Seriously, it’s important to be realistic about it.

We are aiming for herd immunity whether that’s what we call it or not. We might need to cocoon the vulnerable people for as long as it takes and if they choose to do it, but the rest of us will just have to take our chances sooner or later.

Speeding up transmission is not something we want. I think we've discussed this enough. Don't worry I'm perfectly realistic and educated and I know just as much if not more than you about all of this. I really hope treatment improves and a vaccine is found.

khalessi

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

What do you think “ control it until a vaccine is found“ means? Do you think we will all stay in lockdown until a vaccine is available in a year, or 2 years or 5 years or maybe longer? Seriously, it’s important to be realistic about it.

We are aiming for herd immunity whether that’s what we call it or not. We might need to cocoon the vulnerable people for as long as it takes and if they choose to do it, but the rest of us will just have to take our chances sooner or later.

I do understand what he is on about as Im a nurse but no as he himself has said it is about getting reproduction rate of virus below 1% so it is managable and then relaxing restrictions/lockdown.

If he wanted herd immunity they would not have bothered with a lockdown, they could have come out with some bs reason like Britain who have quickly retreated on the herd immunity approach as have the US after 100,000 deaths in NY alone and now are promoting lockdown and masks.

It willbe a softly softly approach and schools willbe reopened slowly while maintaining social distancing.

He has also hinted that the restrcitions will be relaxed and incresed based on the numbers as he doesnt want hospitals overwhelmed like NY.

GT89

trapp wrote: »

Well if you think I'm scaremongering with September 2021 then you must believe schools will open before that?

I wish they would.

Could you explain why you think they will or eve discuss the merits of my argument?

That's optimistic I'd say more like September 2025 for the rest of the country and September 2029 for Dublin

Dublingirl80

khalessi wrote: »

I do understand what he is on about as Im a nurse but no as he himself has said it is about getting reproduction rate of virus below 1% so it is managable and then relaxing restrictions/lockdown.

If he wanted herd immunity they would not have bothered with a lockdown, they could have come out with some bs reason like Britain who have quickly retreated on the herd imunity approach as have the US after 100,000 death in NY alone and now are promoting lockdown and masks.

It willbe a softly softly approach and schools willbe reopened slowly while maintaining social distancing.

He has also hinted that the restrcitions will be relaxed and incresed based on the numbers as he doesnt want hospitals overwhelmed like NY.

Thank you for working as a nurse in the hardest time possible. And yes I agree.

khalessi

Dublingirl80 wrote: »

Thank you for working as a nurse in the hardest time possible. And yes I agree.

Thank you on behalf of my nursing colleagues and friends who are still frontline, but I am now a teacher and have been lucky enough to work in both careers

El_Duderino 09

Dublingirl80 wrote: »

I've clearly thought about it there is just no way of knowing. Too many variables. So they try to stop transmission at the moment and then speed up transmission? Why? That's rubbish, the goal will never be to speed up transmission at the risk of people's lives. That phrase is just wrong it is the opposite of what everyone is trying to do.

Up to this point we’ve tried to sow it down, but if it falls too low then of course they’ll need to speed it up.

There actually aren’t that many variables. There are a few variables like how long it takes us all to become immune through herd immunity. That could happen by waiting, in lockdown, for a vaccine. Or it could happen by at least 2/3 of the population getting it and becoming immune.

It’s actually pretty simple calculation. The quickest way through it is for transmissions to be at a level where the health service is close to capacity without going beyond capacity.

If transmission rates fall too low then it could take years to achieve herd immunity.

Quick maths question for you: with a population of 5m people on the island, how long would it take for everyone to get immunity with a transmission rate of 20,000 per week?

How many weeks for 2/3 of the population to become immune with a transmission rate of 20,000 per week?

Dublingirl80

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Up to this point we’ve tried to sow it down, but if it falls too low then of course they’ll need to speed it up.

There actually aren’t that many variables. There are a few variables like how long it takes us all to become immune through herd immunity. That could happen by waiting, in lockdown, for a vaccine. Or it could happen by at least 2/3 of the population getting it and becoming immune.

It’s actually pretty simple calculation. The quickest way through it is for transmissions to be at a level where the health service is close to capacity without going beyond capacity.

If transmission rates fall too low then it could take years to achieve herd immunity.

Quick maths question for you: with a population of 5m people on the island, how long would it take for everyone to get immunity with a transmission rate of 20,000 per week?

How many weeks for 2/3 of the population to become immune with a transmission rate of 20,000 per week?

If these questions are for me then I'm done with the discussion. Each to their own.

khalessi

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Up to this point we’ve tried to sow it down, but if it falls too low then of course they’ll need to speed it up.

There actually aren’t that many variables. There are a few variables like how long it takes us all to become immune through herd immunity. That could happen by waiting, in lockdown, for a vaccine. Or it could happen by at least 2/3 of the population getting it and becoming immune.

It’s actually pretty simple calculation. The quickest way through it is for transmissions to be at a level where the health service is close to capacity without going beyond capacity.

If transmission rates fall too low then it could take years to achieve herd immunity.

Quick maths question for you: with a population of 5m people on the island, how long would it take for everyone to get immunity with a transmission rate of 20,000 per week?

How many weeks for 2/3 of the population to become immune with a transmission rate of 20,000 per week?

Well according to Simon Harris today if they had done nothing we would be looking at 120,000 cases a day. So your herd immunity theory is kinda irrelevent as they could have just done it but they chose not to

El_Duderino 09

Dublingirl80 wrote: »

Speeding up transmission is not something we want. I think we've discussed this enough. Don't worry I'm perfectly realistic and educated and I know just as much if not more than you about all of this. I really hope treatment improves and a vaccine is found.

Not questioning your level of education, just your level of realism about what’s actually happening In front of us.

We are aiming for herd immunity. Whether we achieve it through a vaccine or through at least 2/3 of the population getting the disease is just a matter of how long each approach would take. If you think we’re trying to keep transmissions as close to zero as possible then you’re not being realistic about what’s happening in front of us. Lifting ANY restrictions would increase transmissions and schools would be one way to achieve that if the transmission numbers get too low.

El_Duderino 09

khalessi wrote: »

Well according to Simon Harris today if they had done nothing we would be looking at 120,000 cases a day. So your herd immunity theory is kinda irrelevent as they could have just done it but they chose not to

Well, what I’ve said (quite a few times so I’m surprised you have misrepresented my position) is that they need to keep transmissions as close to health service capacity as possible without exceeding capacity. I doubt the health service could cope with the acute cases from those 120,000 daily cases so that’s not what I’m suggesting at all.

El_Duderino 09

Dublingirl80 wrote: »

If these questions are for me then I'm done with the discussion. Each to their own.

Of course. If you don’t want to think about it, you don’t have to. Each to their own, as you said.

Murple

How exactly could schools reopen 'while maintaining social distancing'? You can have one but not both. Just think within a family- could you keep even two children at least 2 metres apart all the time and stay 2 metres away from them and still care for them effectively and help them with whatever they needed?

khalessi

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Well, what I’ve said (quite a few times so I’m surprised you have misrepresented my position) is that they need to keep transmissions as close to health service capacity as possible without exceeding capacity. I doubt the health service could cope with the acute cases from those 120,000 daily cases so that’s not what I’m suggesting at all.

I have said similar as in they want to aintain reproduction rate below 1% while reopening Ireland. THey will not open schools ad hoc as per your her immunity plan as one death of a child would swiftly put paid to that. And the argument that it only affects older people is rubbish, children have got it and been very sick, I have 3 nices of varying ages recovering and there are newborn babies with COvid so they will not be stupid enough to open schools to use them to spread it as per your suggestion.

Schools will reopen slowly.

Yes it will be a race between vaccine or heard immunity but schools will not be the vessel of transmission as they willbe the last to reopen. it will be small steps first.

khalessi

Murple wrote: »

How exactly could schools reopen 'while maintaining social distancing'? You can have one but not both. Just think within a family- could you keep even two children at least 2 metres apart all the time and stay 2 metres away from them and still care for them effectively and help them with whatever they needed?

That is the issue to deal with, whatever about being in a classroom they are seated and will not be able to have 30 odd children in a room, but the yard will be a nightmare, as will the hygiene, kids handwashing, picking noses etc, coughing, children doped up with calpol as parents need to work. I constantly have to remind my kids to wash their hands and stop picking their noses.

It is a dielemma

El_Duderino 09

khalessi wrote: »

...
He has also hinted that the restrcitions will be relaxed and incresed based on the numbers as he doesnt want hospitals overwhelmed like NY.

I mean, this is exactly what I’ve been saying. Keep transmission rates close to health service capacity without exceeding capacity. That’s the balance of the quickest and safest way to herd immunity. It will probably take a year or maybe longer. And a vaccine will take at least that long at best and might never actually come.

The only sensible solution is the one we’re taking. Achieve herd immunity as quickly as possible without exceeding the health service’ ability to deal with acute cases.

khalessi

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I mean, this is exactly what I’ve been saying. Keep transmission rates close to health service capacity without exceeding capacity. That’s the balance of the quickest and safest way to herd immunity. It will probably take a year or maybe longer. And a vaccine will take at least that long at best and might never actually come.

The only sensible solution is the one we’re taking. Achieve herd immunity as quickly as possible without exceeding the health service’ ability to deal with acute cases.

Yes but your argument is schools as transmittors and they wont be that stupid or obvious.

El_Duderino 09

khalessi wrote: »

I have said similar as in they want to aintain reproduction rate below 1% while reopening Ireland. THey will not open schools ad hoc as per your her immunity plan as one death of a child would swiftly put paid to that. And the argument that it only affects older people is rubbish, children have got it and been very sick, I have 3 nices of varying ages recovering and there are newborn babies with COvid so they will not be stupid enough to open schools to use them to spread it as per your suggestion.

Schools will reopen slowly.

Yes it will be a race between vaccine or heard immunity but schools will not be the vessel of transmission as they willbe the last to reopen. it will be small steps first.

Lots of people will die, mostly vulnerable people which will be mostly older people but will include some children. It remains to be seen whether they will use schools to mange transmission rates. It would be as good a way to manage rates as a lot of others.

You seem to acknowledge that we’re aiming for herd immunity but also not acknowledging that we need to manage transmission rates to achieve it.

How do you think they’ll achieve herd immunity?

El_Duderino 09

khalessi wrote: »

Yes but your argument is schools as transmittors and they wont be that stupid or obvious.

1. How will they do it?

2. How do you think they ought to do it that wouldn’t be as stupid or obvious?

khalessi

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Lots of people will die, mostly vulnerable people which will be mostly older people but will include some children. It remains to be seen whether they will use schools to mange transmission rates. It would be as good a way to manage rates as a lot of others.

You seem to acknowledge that we’re aiming for herd immunity but also not acknowledging that we need to manage transmission rates to achieve it.

How do you think they’ll achieve herd immunity?

I have said all along reproduction rate of infection needs to be kept below 1% therefore schools will not be the mode of transmission for your herd immunity plan. I also think if this was the plan they would just have reopened schools after Easter as hospitals are not overwhelmed. I do not think herd immunity is the way to go as shown by the US and Britain for example both have backtracked and rapidly.

ILoveYourVibes

I am just amused that Harris thinks the daily no of cases is going to start falling by may.

April twelfth has come and gone if we don't see a fall soon well then lockdown isn't enough to reduce the spread its just slowing it. That means restrictions cannot lift.

El_Duderino 09

khalessi wrote: »

I have said all along reproduction rate of infection needs to be kept below 1% therefore schools will not be the mode of transmission for your herd immunity plan. I also think if this was the plan they would just have reopened schools after Easter as hospitals are not overwhelmed. I do not think herd immunity is the way to go as shown by the US and Britain for example both have backtracked and rapidly.

Ok in addition to the 2 question in the post above, what is the way to go?

P.s. I think you’re hung up on the term “herd immunity”. If we all got a vaccination tomorrow, it would achieve herd immunity.

We have to achieve herd immunity. Whether herd immunity comes through a vaccine or through people getting the disease, we have to achieve herd immunity.

khalessi

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

1. How will they do it?

2. How do you think they ought to do it that wouldn’t be as stupid or obvious?

Simon Harris has said social distancing is going to be with us for a long time yet and that the present restrictions will be tweaked and closely observed, which does not read as total relaxation. I think they will take softly softly approach reopening smaller businesses for example and watching the effect on the numbers. If that is ok another step of opening less essential places such as coffess shops. If numbers increase, tighter restrictions. It wil alll be done slowly and gently and schools will not be reopened until he is confident people wont die, he more or less said as much today, it was 57 minutes long he spoke for.

El_Duderino 09

khalessi wrote: »

Simon Harris has said social distancing is going to be with us for a long time yet and that the present restrictions will be tweaked and closely observed, which does not read as total relaxation. I think they will take softly softly approach reopening smaller businesses for example and watching the effect on the numbers. If that is ok another step of opening less essential places such as coffess shops. If numbers increase, tighter restrictions. It wil alll be done slowly and gently and schools will not be reopened until he is confident people wont die, he more or less said as much today, it was 57 minutes long he spoke for.

Ok. I presume you mean the numbers at kept below the health service ability to deal with them. So exactly what I’m talking about. Keep transmissions below the health service capacity.

Whether they use schools to achieve it or not remains to be seen. We’ll achieve herd immunity by hook or by crook. It’s just about balancing keeping transmissions high without overwhelming the health service.

ILoveYourVibes

khalessi wrote: »

Simon Harris has said social distancing is going to be with us for a long time yet and that the present restrictions will be tweaked and closely observed, which does not read as total relaxation.

There is no way he can have a relaxation or 'tweaking'.

And the enormity of this is going to dawn on him next sept when a new generation of student nurses doesn't graduate and a new generation of LC students don't get into nursing college medical degrees etc.

Lockdown is not enough. Yes we need a lockdown but its not enough and eventually lockdown is going to be useless if we don't realize this. Just like italy.

People screaming for testing and ppe are not trying to avoid lockdown its not lets do this instead. We know that eventually lockdown alone won't work.

El_Duderino 09

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I am just amused that Harris thinks the daily no of cases is going to start falling by may.

April twelfth has come and gone if we don't see a fall soon well then lockdown isn't enough to reduce the spread its just slowing it. That means restrictions cannot lift.

Well, the daily cases are levelling off, presumably as a result of the lockdown. The next couple of weeks will be interesting to see what happens and if the numbers fall too low, which methods will they use to raise them again.

ILoveYourVibes

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ok. I presume you mean the numbers at kept below the health service ability to deal with them. So exactly what I’m talking about. Keep transmissions below the health service capacity.

Whether they use schools to achieve it or not remains to be seen. We’ll achieve herd immunity by hook or by crook. It’s just about balancing keeping transmissions high without overwhelming the health service.

You won't be able to with lockdown alone. Lockdown alone won't balance this in our favor for much longer.

ILoveYourVibes

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Well, the daily cases are levelling off, presumably as a result of the lockdown. The next couple of weeks will be interesting to see what happens and if the numbers fall too low, which methods will they use to raise them again.

They are not. And they are not adding in the German figures.

The correct fig 23 hrs about was 992 cases. Its not the figure banded about in the media.

El_Duderino 09

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

You won't be able to with lockdown alone. Lockdown alone won't balance this in our favor for much longer.

Why do you think that?

El_Duderino 09

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

They are not. And they are not adding in the German figures.

You’re right. The Irish figures are not levelling off the American and uk figures are levelling off though. The Americans have been on about 30,000 cases a day for about a week now. The uk has about 4,000 a day for about a week now.

r93kaey5p2izun

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Not questioning your level of education, just your level of realism about what’s actually happening In front of us.

We are aiming for herd immunity. Whether we achieve it through a vaccine or through at least 2/3 of the population getting the disease is just a matter of how long each approach would take. If you think we’re trying to keep transmissions as close to zero as possible then you’re not being realistic about what’s happening in front of us. Lifting ANY restrictions would increase transmissions and schools would be one way to achieve that if the transmission numbers get too low.

What I see in front of me is a lock down of unprecedented scale with suggestions it might be lifted in a few weeks maybe, no guarantees. I see a Health Minister stating social distancing will remain until there is a vaccine - not until herd immunity via transmission. And I see chair of the NPHET modelling group Professor Philip Nolan stating "we need to think carefully about the things we can get back to doing in a way that does not spread the virus" and "the aim is to suppress it as much as possible. We are seeing a day-on-day reduction in the growth of the epidemic. The growth in cases is slowing down but, frankly, that number needs to be zero" and "We’re not going back, it’s best not to think about lifting the restrictions, it’s best to think about finding a new way to live that interrupts the spread of the virus".

That does not really tally with what you seem to be seeing about keeping transmission going to a level just within ICU capacity. That looks a lot more like suppression to me.

Where are you seeing plan leading towards herd immunity through transmission?

LiquidZeb

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Why do you think that?

You do realize you're talking to someone who suggested we lockdown for 18-24 months last night and when probed about how that's feasible responded with we'll just have to. There's some utter insanity on this site