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How will schools be able to go back in September?

  • #1
    Registered Users Posts: 161 ✭✭ shoppergal


    Just wondering if anyone can give any insight into how schools could safely re-open in September?

    Everyone I'm talking to is saying they won't be back until September but in my head I'm wondering how they'll re-open even in September? The virus will still be there with a vaccine still months away at that stage.


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Comments



  • A lot can and probably will happen in the next 5 months. I cannot see how anyone can answer your question at this stage. The first priority is going to be the Leaving Cert, but even though they have an outline plan for that nothing can be set in stone at this stage




  • Probably by that stage we’ll need to start moving forward, with or without Covid 19.




  • It sounds like the Government plans on opening primary schools from mid-May judging from the commentary in today's papers.




  • If they manage to eradicate it and block international travel yes.

    If they dont eradicate it and just keep slowing it then no as the peak isnt necessarily going to be smaller just because you delay it. I have a feeling ( and I could be wrong ) but that the Irish effort is just slowing it making it longer drawn out so we can deal with it while people recover.



    But even in China where they have ended lockdown ...its been scary how they haven't stopped international travel.

    Also really how long do we really think a vaccine will take? Vaccines can actually take years.

    And they give some immunity.




  • It sounds like the Government plans on opening primary schools from mid-May judging from the commentary in today's papers.

    If they won't let leaving cert happen until late July or early August, with all the issues that throws up, you can put your money on no return for primary until September. In my opinion the governments nondisclosure of this yet is to keep the head on parents of those children.


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  • julie101 wrote: »
    If they won't let leaving cert happen until late July or early August, with all the issues that throws up, you can put your money on no return for primary until September. In my opinion the governments nondisclosure of this yet is to keep the head on parents of those children.

    There is a lot of misdirection coming from the govt and media. Its going to bite them in the end.




  • It sounds like the Government plans on opening primary schools from mid-May judging from the commentary in today's papers.

    I think this is unlikely




  • This is very unlikely

    That would have been my thoughts, but Government Ministers are briefing to that effect in a number of today's papers. Idea being that many parents can't get back to work during a phased reopening of the economy if primary schools remain closed. Guess we will see in a few weeks.




  • There is a lot of misdirection coming from the govt and media. Its going to bite them in the end.

    Yes agreed. As they have played a long game and schools were first to close I am fairly sure they will be amongst last back and therefore September. They would be a breeding ground for Covid. No social distancing can happen in schools with young children so it would be using our children and their families as an experiment.




  • That would have been my thoughts, but Government Ministers are briefing to that effect in a number of today's papers. Idea being that many parents can't get back to work during a phased reopening of the economy if primary schools remain closed. Guess we will see in a few weeks.

    I could be very wrong but i would conclude that then there can be no phased opening of the economy and that information is more than likely misdirection.


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  • There is a lot of misdirection coming from the govt and media. Its going to bite them in the end.

    TBH most parents, including myself, are not
    realistically expecting to be sending kids back to school before September at the earliest. This year is a complete write off.




  • I have a feeling ( and I could be wrong ) but that the Irish effort is just slowing it making it longer drawn out so we can deal with it while people recover.

    You dont have to have any such feeling about it. The Dept of health and the Taoiseach have all along openly stated that is the objective




  • TBH most parents, including myself, are not
    realistically expecting to be sending kids back to school before September at the earliest. This year is a complete write off.

    I know. I don't think anyone is thinking this for primary. There are a few who believe the LC will go ahead. I think that is wishful thinking too.




  • There is a lot of misdirection coming from the govt and media. Its going to bite them in the end.

    They cannot give direction on something they have little control over. They can communicate aspirations. They can try and plan for different eventualities, but it's too early to be able to steer a definitive course on this




  • Laois_Man wrote: »
    You dont have to have any such feeling about it. The Dept of health and the Taoiseach have all along openly stated that is the objective


    LOL i have been using my words carefully as anytime I say something someone seems to question my intelligence and act as if I am a know it all lately.

    I keep saying ..i could be wrong but ...well from my limited knowledge etc:pac:




  • A lot will have changed by September. The one certainty is that we won't have a vaccine so the vulnerable will have to cacoon and the low risk will have to get the virus and recover. The current restrictions will be eased but social distancing, working from home to the greatest extent possible, no large gatherings, etc. will remain. Increased hospital capacity, better treatments and more experience will have less people dying. Covid-19 will become less of a concern for people as their other problems become bigger issues for them. We are going to have to learn to live with the virus and life will go on, just not the same as before.




  • Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    A lot will have changed by September. We are going to have to learn to live with the virus and life will go on, just not the same as before.


    I don't think we really know when things will have changed.

    We can't actually live with the virus unless things are able to go back etc.

    We couldn't live with polio we couldn't live with measles etc. We can't live with this. It would collapse our society before we evolved to have immunity.

    Just like every other airborne virus we need a vaccine. And it has to be good enough that life can go back to normal.

    And we have to roll it out to the entire population or at least enough of a percentage to create herd immunity. I will leave it up to the experts to say how many people that is.




  • Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    A lot will have changed by September. The one certainty is that we won't have a vaccine so the vulnerable will have to cacoon and the low risk will have to get the virus and recover. The current restrictions will be eased but social distancing, working from home to the greatest extent possible, no large gatherings, etc. will remain. Increased hospital capacity, better treatments and more experience will have less people dying. Covid-19 will become less of a concern for people as their other problems become bigger issues for them. We are going to have to learn to live with the virus and life will go on, just not the same as before.

    I think this is a fairly good assessment based on what we know at this point.

    There are still a lot of unknowns which makes decisions making a challenge. Once the true fatality rate becomes known then we will be able to make some decisions - better treatments will drive down fatality rates further. We cannot plan around a vaccine as there is no reasonable timeline for one.




  • boege wrote: »
    I think this is a fairly good assessment based on what we know at this point.

    There are still a lot of unknowns which makes decisions making a challenge. Once the true fatality rate becomes known then we will be able to make some decisions - better treatments will drive down fatality rates further. We cannot plan around a vaccine as there is no reasonable timeline for one.

    Will we ever know the true fatality rate though?




  • I don't think we really know when things will have changed.

    We can't actually live with the virus unless things are able to go back etc.

    We couldn't live with polio we couldn't live with measles etc. We can't live with this. It would collapse our society before we evolved to have immunity.

    Just like every other airborne virus we need a vaccine. And it has to be good enough that life can go back to normal.

    And we have to roll it out to the entire population or at least enough of a percentage to create herd immunity. I will leave it up to the experts to say how many people that is.

    The indications are that with Covid-19, 50% of infected are asymptomatic, of those that do have symptoms, 80% are mild and recover without medical assistance. I think we will live with it easier than people think. Once other problems start mounting, people will be more willing to live with it.


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  • Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    The indications are that with Covid-19, 50% of infected are asymptomatic, of those that do have symptoms, 80% are mild and recover without medical assistance. I think we will live with it easier than people think. Once other problems start mounting, people will be more willing to live with it.

    As a 'species' from a clinic cold perspective yes. As a functioning society ...no.

    Fatalities have been low due to lockdowns and the fact that countries tried to save their healthservice. If we try to 'live with it'. That would not be the case.

    And its not the flu ...mild is not the word.

    I have heard many figures banded about as to how many are asymptomatic some say 10 % some say 50% some say 70%.

    Its not predictable who is going to die. Its not older people. Its everyone.

    So no...i don't think we will get to a point when people will simply say lets take our chances.

    I think certainly Boris Jonson getting it has prevented that.




  • I suspect that crèches and the junior groups and preschools who need most parental supervision will be first back to get parents back to work. That and the Leaving certs will be the goals. Everything else is completely up in the air I think




  • Will we ever know the true fatality rate though?

    There are some experiments underway in Germany and Italy where they have encircled entire towns. They are carrying out 100% testing of the population in these towns. This will give an estimate of infection rates. Since they have fatality rates (sortof!) then they can start to get a more accurate figure of fatality rates but it will have an error margin. As they test larger populations then the error margin will get smaller.




  • boege wrote: »
    There are some experiments underway in Germany and Italy where they have encircled entire towns. They are carrying out 100% testing of the population in these towns. This will give an estimate of infection rates. Since they have fatality rates (sortof!) then they can start to get a more accurate figure of fatality rates but it will have an error margin. As they test larger populations then the error margin will get smaller.

    I doubt they will do this here as the govt has constantly defended isolating its testing to priority groups and those with 2 or more symptoms. Yet at the same time have expressed publicly that they have an idea of infection rates.

    I have suggested they can't have and idea of infection rates as someone has mentioned before we don't all show symptoms many or us will have no symptoms. But this has been hotly denied by supporters of this govt.

    I don't see them doing this. And i don't think we have the capability.

    That's interesting what is happening in Italy as i have been asking people why the govt hasn't done this here.




  • As a parent of schoolkids i'll be surprised and delighted if they are returning in September. Mine are very lucky as they are very much IT focused in their school and do lessons online every morning and have to be at their laptop device at 9am sharp.




  • I doubt they will do this here as the govt has constantly defended isolating its testing to priority groups and those with 2 or more symptoms. Yet at the same time have expressed publicly that they have an idea of infection rates.

    I have suggested they can't have and idea of infection rates as someone has mentioned before we don't all show symptoms many or us will have no symptoms. But this has been hotly denied by supporters of this govt.

    I don't see them doing this. And i don't think we have the capability.

    That's interesting what is happening in Italy as i have been asking people why the govt hasn't done this here.

    There was already a small scale study in a German town called Gangelt by University of Bonn. They found 2% of the population had the virus but 14% tested were carrying antibodies. The conclusion was that 15% of the town had been infected and the fatality rate was 0.37%. The sampling was randomised and the town was in an area that had been hard hit.

    More studies like this will start to put numbers on the problem but each nation will have to, at some point, get a handle on the level of infection within its population. If you do not know how many people are infected then you can accurately model into the future.




  • I suspect that crèches and the junior groups and preschools who need most parental supervision will be first back to get parents back to work. That and the Leaving certs will be the goals. Everything else is completely up in the air I think

    I know parents have to work etc, but creches are worse places for spreading of viruses etc. How can you have 12 two year old with 2 adults and expect them to social distance?

    Schools would be easier to control this as they are older and would understand.




  • boege wrote: »
    If you do not know how many people are infected then you can accurately model into the future.

    I agree 100%. This needs to be in the media.




  • As a 'species' from a clinic cold perspective yes. As a functioning society ...no.

    Fatalities have been low due to lockdowns and the fact that countries tried to save their healthservice. If we try to 'live with it'. That would not be the case.

    And its not the flu ...mild is not the word.

    I have heard many figures banded about as to how many are asymptomatic some say 10 % some say 50% some say 70%.

    Its not predictable who is going to die. Its not older people. Its everyone.

    So no...i don't think we will get to a point when people will simply say lets take our chances.

    I think certainly Boris Jonson getting it has prevented that.

    Most other things are on hold at the minute but there is an avalanche of other problems building. People not getting other medical treatments (perhaps not life saving but certainly life changing), other conditions going undiagnosed, mental health issues on a huge scale, mass unemployment, widespread personal finance deterioration, mounting national debt (you can say its at low interest rates but many will be very concerned about their future prosperity when they read the headlines), threats to current levels of public services, etc. There is also a huge psychological element to this and the longer it goes on, the more people's fears switch to other things which they see as more likely to affect themselves.

    The death rate will almost certainly drop. Like I said, increased hospital capacity, treatments, etc. I know it's not a nice thing to say but there will also be less vulnerable people to die as time passes. As others have alluded to, more data could see the risk of the virus reprofiled. The virus is the biggest problem now but the scales can tip the other direction and sooner than many think.


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  • Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    The virus is the biggest problem now but the scales can tip the other direction and sooner than many think.

    We aren't seeing that in some countries.


This discussion has been closed.
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