How will schools be able to go back in September?

shoppergal

Just wondering if anyone can give any insight into how schools could safely re-open in September?

Everyone I'm talking to is saying they won't be back until September but in my head I'm wondering how they'll re-open even in September? The virus will still be there with a vaccine still months away at that stage.

Beasty

A lot can and probably will happen in the next 5 months. I cannot see how anyone can answer your question at this stage. The first priority is going to be the Leaving Cert, but even though they have an outline plan for that nothing can be set in stone at this stage

Probably by that stage we’ll need to start moving forward, with or without Covid 19.

Sierra Oscar

It sounds like the Government plans on opening primary schools from mid-May judging from the commentary in today's papers.

ILoveYourVibes

If they manage to eradicate it and block international travel yes.

If they dont eradicate it and just keep slowing it then no as the peak isnt necessarily going to be smaller just because you delay it. I have a feeling ( and I could be wrong ) but that the Irish effort is just slowing it making it longer drawn out so we can deal with it while people recover.



But even in China where they have ended lockdown ...its been scary how they haven't stopped international travel.

Also really how long do we really think a vaccine will take? Vaccines can actually take years.

And they give some immunity.

Sierra Oscar

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It sounds like the Government plans on opening primary schools from mid-May judging from the commentary in today's papers.

If they won't let leaving cert happen until late July or early August, with all the issues that throws up, you can put your money on no return for primary until September. In my opinion the governments nondisclosure of this yet is to keep the head on parents of those children.

ILoveYourVibes

Deleted User wrote: »

If they won't let leaving cert happen until late July or early August, with all the issues that throws up, you can put your money on no return for primary until September. In my opinion the governments nondisclosure of this yet is to keep the head on parents of those children.

There is a lot of misdirection coming from the govt and media. Its going to bite them in the end.

BabysCoffee

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It sounds like the Government plans on opening primary schools from mid-May judging from the commentary in today's papers.

I think this is unlikely

Sierra Oscar

BabysCoffee wrote: »

This is very unlikely

That would have been my thoughts, but Government Ministers are briefing to that effect in a number of today's papers. Idea being that many parents can't get back to work during a phased reopening of the economy if primary schools remain closed. Guess we will see in a few weeks.

ILoveYourVibes

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

There is a lot of misdirection coming from the govt and media. Its going to bite them in the end.

Yes agreed. As they have played a long game and schools were first to close I am fairly sure they will be amongst last back and therefore September. They would be a breeding ground for Covid. No social distancing can happen in schools with young children so it would be using our children and their families as an experiment.

ILoveYourVibes

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

That would have been my thoughts, but Government Ministers are briefing to that effect in a number of today's papers. Idea being that many parents can't get back to work during a phased reopening of the economy if primary schools remain closed. Guess we will see in a few weeks.

I could be very wrong but i would conclude that then there can be no phased opening of the economy and that information is more than likely misdirection.

whatdoicare

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

There is a lot of misdirection coming from the govt and media. Its going to bite them in the end.

TBH most parents, including myself, are not
realistically expecting to be sending kids back to school before September at the earliest. This year is a complete write off.

Laois_Man

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I have a feeling ( and I could be wrong ) but that the Irish effort is just slowing it making it longer drawn out so we can deal with it while people recover.

You dont have to have any such feeling about it. The Dept of health and the Taoiseach have all along openly stated that is the objective

ILoveYourVibes

whatdoicare wrote: »

TBH most parents, including myself, are not
realistically expecting to be sending kids back to school before September at the earliest. This year is a complete write off.

I know. I don't think anyone is thinking this for primary. There are a few who believe the LC will go ahead. I think that is wishful thinking too.

Beasty

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

There is a lot of misdirection coming from the govt and media. Its going to bite them in the end.

They cannot give direction on something they have little control over. They can communicate aspirations. They can try and plan for different eventualities, but it's too early to be able to steer a definitive course on this

ILoveYourVibes

Laois_Man wrote: »

You dont have to have any such feeling about it. The Dept of health and the Taoiseach have all along openly stated that is the objective

LOL i have been using my words carefully as anytime I say something someone seems to question my intelligence and act as if I am a know it all lately.

I keep saying ..i could be wrong but ...well from my limited knowledge etc:pac:

Pete_Cavan

A lot will have changed by September. The one certainty is that we won't have a vaccine so the vulnerable will have to cacoon and the low risk will have to get the virus and recover. The current restrictions will be eased but social distancing, working from home to the greatest extent possible, no large gatherings, etc. will remain. Increased hospital capacity, better treatments and more experience will have less people dying. Covid-19 will become less of a concern for people as their other problems become bigger issues for them. We are going to have to learn to live with the virus and life will go on, just not the same as before.

ILoveYourVibes

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

A lot will have changed by September. We are going to have to learn to live with the virus and life will go on, just not the same as before.

I don't think we really know when things will have changed.

We can't actually live with the virus unless things are able to go back etc.

We couldn't live with polio we couldn't live with measles etc. We can't live with this. It would collapse our society before we evolved to have immunity.

Just like every other airborne virus we need a vaccine. And it has to be good enough that life can go back to normal.

And we have to roll it out to the entire population or at least enough of a percentage to create herd immunity. I will leave it up to the experts to say how many people that is.

boege

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

A lot will have changed by September. The one certainty is that we won't have a vaccine so the vulnerable will have to cacoon and the low risk will have to get the virus and recover. The current restrictions will be eased but social distancing, working from home to the greatest extent possible, no large gatherings, etc. will remain. Increased hospital capacity, better treatments and more experience will have less people dying. Covid-19 will become less of a concern for people as their other problems become bigger issues for them. We are going to have to learn to live with the virus and life will go on, just not the same as before.

I think this is a fairly good assessment based on what we know at this point.

There are still a lot of unknowns which makes decisions making a challenge. Once the true fatality rate becomes known then we will be able to make some decisions - better treatments will drive down fatality rates further. We cannot plan around a vaccine as there is no reasonable timeline for one.

ILoveYourVibes

boege wrote: »

I think this is a fairly good assessment based on what we know at this point.

There are still a lot of unknowns which makes decisions making a challenge. Once the true fatality rate becomes known then we will be able to make some decisions - better treatments will drive down fatality rates further. We cannot plan around a vaccine as there is no reasonable timeline for one.

Will we ever know the true fatality rate though?

Pete_Cavan

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I don't think we really know when things will have changed.

We can't actually live with the virus unless things are able to go back etc.

We couldn't live with polio we couldn't live with measles etc. We can't live with this. It would collapse our society before we evolved to have immunity.

Just like every other airborne virus we need a vaccine. And it has to be good enough that life can go back to normal.

And we have to roll it out to the entire population or at least enough of a percentage to create herd immunity. I will leave it up to the experts to say how many people that is.

The indications are that with Covid-19, 50% of infected are asymptomatic, of those that do have symptoms, 80% are mild and recover without medical assistance. I think we will live with it easier than people think. Once other problems start mounting, people will be more willing to live with it.

ILoveYourVibes

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

The indications are that with Covid-19, 50% of infected are asymptomatic, of those that do have symptoms, 80% are mild and recover without medical assistance. I think we will live with it easier than people think. Once other problems start mounting, people will be more willing to live with it.

As a 'species' from a clinic cold perspective yes. As a functioning society ...no.

Fatalities have been low due to lockdowns and the fact that countries tried to save their healthservice. If we try to 'live with it'. That would not be the case.

And its not the flu ...mild is not the word.

I have heard many figures banded about as to how many are asymptomatic some say 10 % some say 50% some say 70%.

Its not predictable who is going to die. Its not older people. Its everyone.

So no...i don't think we will get to a point when people will simply say lets take our chances.

I think certainly Boris Jonson getting it has prevented that.

mirrorwall14

I suspect that crèches and the junior groups and preschools who need most parental supervision will be first back to get parents back to work. That and the Leaving certs will be the goals. Everything else is completely up in the air I think

boege

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Will we ever know the true fatality rate though?

There are some experiments underway in Germany and Italy where they have encircled entire towns. They are carrying out 100% testing of the population in these towns. This will give an estimate of infection rates. Since they have fatality rates (sortof!) then they can start to get a more accurate figure of fatality rates but it will have an error margin. As they test larger populations then the error margin will get smaller.

ILoveYourVibes

boege wrote: »

There are some experiments underway in Germany and Italy where they have encircled entire towns. They are carrying out 100% testing of the population in these towns. This will give an estimate of infection rates. Since they have fatality rates (sortof!) then they can start to get a more accurate figure of fatality rates but it will have an error margin. As they test larger populations then the error margin will get smaller.

I doubt they will do this here as the govt has constantly defended isolating its testing to priority groups and those with 2 or more symptoms. Yet at the same time have expressed publicly that they have an idea of infection rates.

I have suggested they can't have and idea of infection rates as someone has mentioned before we don't all show symptoms many or us will have no symptoms. But this has been hotly denied by supporters of this govt.

I don't see them doing this. And i don't think we have the capability.

That's interesting what is happening in Italy as i have been asking people why the govt hasn't done this here.

BanditLuke

As a parent of schoolkids i'll be surprised and delighted if they are returning in September. Mine are very lucky as they are very much IT focused in their school and do lessons online every morning and have to be at their laptop device at 9am sharp.

boege

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I doubt they will do this here as the govt has constantly defended isolating its testing to priority groups and those with 2 or more symptoms. Yet at the same time have expressed publicly that they have an idea of infection rates.

I have suggested they can't have and idea of infection rates as someone has mentioned before we don't all show symptoms many or us will have no symptoms. But this has been hotly denied by supporters of this govt.

I don't see them doing this. And i don't think we have the capability.

That's interesting what is happening in Italy as i have been asking people why the govt hasn't done this here.

There was already a small scale study in a German town called Gangelt by University of Bonn. They found 2% of the population had the virus but 14% tested were carrying antibodies. The conclusion was that 15% of the town had been infected and the fatality rate was 0.37%. The sampling was randomised and the town was in an area that had been hard hit.

More studies like this will start to put numbers on the problem but each nation will have to, at some point, get a handle on the level of infection within its population. If you do not know how many people are infected then you can accurately model into the future.

youandme13

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

I suspect that crèches and the junior groups and preschools who need most parental supervision will be first back to get parents back to work. That and the Leaving certs will be the goals. Everything else is completely up in the air I think

I know parents have to work etc, but creches are worse places for spreading of viruses etc. How can you have 12 two year old with 2 adults and expect them to social distance?

Schools would be easier to control this as they are older and would understand.

ILoveYourVibes

boege wrote: »

If you do not know how many people are infected then you can accurately model into the future.

I agree 100%. This needs to be in the media.

Pete_Cavan

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

As a 'species' from a clinic cold perspective yes. As a functioning society ...no.

Fatalities have been low due to lockdowns and the fact that countries tried to save their healthservice. If we try to 'live with it'. That would not be the case.

And its not the flu ...mild is not the word.

I have heard many figures banded about as to how many are asymptomatic some say 10 % some say 50% some say 70%.

Its not predictable who is going to die. Its not older people. Its everyone.

So no...i don't think we will get to a point when people will simply say lets take our chances.

I think certainly Boris Jonson getting it has prevented that.

Most other things are on hold at the minute but there is an avalanche of other problems building. People not getting other medical treatments (perhaps not life saving but certainly life changing), other conditions going undiagnosed, mental health issues on a huge scale, mass unemployment, widespread personal finance deterioration, mounting national debt (you can say its at low interest rates but many will be very concerned about their future prosperity when they read the headlines), threats to current levels of public services, etc. There is also a huge psychological element to this and the longer it goes on, the more people's fears switch to other things which they see as more likely to affect themselves.

The death rate will almost certainly drop. Like I said, increased hospital capacity, treatments, etc. I know it's not a nice thing to say but there will also be less vulnerable people to die as time passes. As others have alluded to, more data could see the risk of the virus reprofiled. The virus is the biggest problem now but the scales can tip the other direction and sooner than many think.

ILoveYourVibes

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

The virus is the biggest problem now but the scales can tip the other direction and sooner than many think.

We aren't seeing that in some countries.

Downlinz

In theory if the lockdown is effective and we reach a testing scenario where people can receive same or next day results that we'll have very low case numbers and the problem areas will be easily identified and contained as people will still be practicing social distancing and not making unnecessary journeys across the country.

It's reasonable to think some or all areas of the country could be designated as safe for small gatherings like schools but with extra measures of precaution like anyone showing cold symptoms to not go to school until they've been tested and maybe staggered break times to keep classes apart. Also on the basis that the school could shut in an area at any time if positive cases start spreading again so it'll be a really fluid situation.


If the public aren't complicit with the guidelines and the lockdown slows the spread less than hoped to a point where we're still getting hundreds of cases each week then it would be very difficult to see schools reopening until a vaccine arrives.

Pete_Cavan

Downlinz wrote: »

If the public aren't complicit with the guidelines and the lockdown slows the spread less than hoped to a point where we're still getting hundreds of cases each week then it would be very difficult to see schools reopening until a vaccine arrives.

A vaccine needs to be developed, tested for long term side effects, gain full regularitry approval, get mass produced and then administered to hundreds of millions of people. We can't just skip a whole school year. Even if schooling is done from home, it is not practical for many families to have their children at home for so long. Something is going to have to give.

rob316

I just hope they reopen the special schools even, its been so hard on my son. Routine abruptly ended, hes just all over the place. Very small numbers in those classes so its manageable but i doubt the unions would allow some members work while others didn't.

trapp

Very difficult to know but September return far from certain.

The effects of these closures lasting long into next school year will be devastating for vulnerable children and the thousands of children living in our disadvantaged communities all across Dublin, Limerick etc.

Even in September they'll be nearly 6 months out of school.

And it's not just an education issue, far from it.

Many, many children rely on school for food and some sort of respite from chaotic, possibly violent, addiction ruined homes.

The professors and doctors running the public health at the moment are doing really well but they don't know what it's like on the ground in our most disadvantaged communities.

Schools will need to prepare staggered timetables, perhaps some of the pupils attend on a monday, others on a tuesday etc., staggered finishing times to allow for social distancing, social distancing in the classroom, one pupil per desk etc.

There are ways around it but work will need to be done to prepare.

I expect a January return for schools unfortunately.

DrSpongeBobz

Dont know how colleges will open in September due to all ages being present and the 1000s of students.Cant practice social distancing due to the numbers in some of the classes.

brookers

trapp wrote: »

Very difficult to know but September return far from certain.

The effects of these closures lasting long into next school year will be devastating for vulnerable children and the thousands of children living in our disadvantaged communities all across Dublin, Limerick etc.

Even in September they'll be nearly 6 months out of school.

And it's not just an education issue, far from it.

Many, many children rely on school for food and some sort of respite from chaotic, possibly violent, addiction ruined homes.

The professors and doctors running the public health at the moment are doing really well but they don't know what it's like on the ground in our most disadvantaged communities.

Schools will need to prepare staggered timetables, perhaps some of the pupils attend on a monday, others on a tuesday etc., staggered finishing times to allow for social distancing, social distancing in the classroom, one pupil per desk etc.

There are ways around it but work will need to be done to prepare.

I expect a January return for schools unfortunately.

I am a parent with two primary school going children There is no way I would send either of them back until I felt it was ok to do so. I have discussed this with other parents and they all feel the same. I think september is too soon. Personally I believe that the Leaving Cert wont go ahead and parents and students will just have to live with that. Their subjects will be graded and hopefully their grades will get an added bonus of being elevated by at least two grades to make up for what is an extraordinary time and to be fair to those students who may be under stress, not able to study for internet reasons, homelessness, living in a hotel room, parents who have addictive problems etc The teaching unions have not agreed to any of this either.

jrosen

Initially the focus needed to be on the virus, to contain it, to stop it spreading too fast. But now the scales will start to tip and decisions will need to be made not only taking the virus and well being into consideration but also the economy and peoples lives.

Schools will open in September. We could see some changes in how they operate but I think they will be open in some capacity .

trapp

brookers wrote: »

I am a parent with two primary school going children There is no way I would send either of them back until I felt it was ok to do so. I have discussed this with other parents and they all feel the same. I think september is too soon. Personally I believe that the Leaving Cert wont go ahead and parents and students will just have to live with that. Their subjects will be graded and hopefully their grades will get an added bonus of being elevated by at least two grades to make up for what is an extraordinary time and to be fair to those students who may be under stress, not able to study for internet reasons, homelessness, living in a hotel room, parents who have addictive problems etc The teaching unions have not agreed to any of this either.

I don't think we'll ever have 100% safe.

Certainly not within two or three years anyway.

Schools will hopefully reopen as our most disadvantaged children will need them.

But they will be different places to now with a lot less activity.

And like you said parents may well have the option to keep children at home and home school.

r93kaey5p2izun

Physical distancing is not possible in a school unless the student population is cut to one quarter the normal number at most. So either physical distancing is out the window by September, or schools reopening in full won't happen. Many schools in the Dublin area have already been operating on a knife edge in terms of adequate teacher numbers for the past two years. Bring cocooning of the vulnerable, and isolation due the virus into the mix, and it would be difficult to see many of them being able to maintain adequate supervision let alone teaching.

Cleaning would also need to looked at seriously in schools. Schools are filthy. They are barely cleaned at all. The virus would spread like wildfire if it got in.

jrosen

Yosef Stocky Backspace wrote: »

Physical distancing is not possible in a school unless the student population is cut to one quarter the normal number at most. So either physical distancing is out the window by September, or schools reopening in full won't happen. Many schools in the Dublin area have already been operating on a knife edge in terms of adequate teacher numbers for the past two years. Bring cocooning of the vulnerable, and isolation due the virus into the mix, and it would be difficult to see many of them being able to maintain adequate supervision let alone teaching.

Cleaning would also need to looked at seriously in schools. Schools are filthy. They are barely cleaned at all. The virus would spread like wildfire if it got in.

I totally agree. Schools are not set up for any sort of social distancing. Many classrooms are packed with over 30 students in areas with large demands. If anything schools will need more teachers because I cant not fathom how one teacher is going to go back into the classroom with approx 28+ kids who have been out of the classroom for 6 months with vast differences in what they have been doing.

trapp

Yosef Stocky Backspace wrote: »

Physical distancing is not possible in a school unless the student population is cut to one quarter the normal number at most. So either physical distancing is out the window by September, or schools reopening in full won't happen. Many schools in the Dublin area have already been operating on a knife edge in terms of adequate teacher numbers for the past two years. Bring cocooning of the vulnerable, and isolation due the virus into the mix, and it would be difficult to see many of them being able to maintain adequate supervision let alone teaching.

Cleaning would also need to looked at seriously in schools. Schools are filthy. They are barely cleaned at all. The virus would spread like wildfire if it got in.

Agree with all that.

But we can't just forget educating the children of the country.

I think we should aim for a January reopening, which gives plenty of time to organise social distancing, stagerred timetables and so on. Even 1 day a week per child is better than nothing.

LilyShame

Denmark reopening all early years education this coming week.. Up to age 11. Basis is that these children need to most support from working parents and parents can't really remote work if they are home schooling and caring for their little ones. They are setting up guidelines for social distance practice including outdoors education. An outdoors summer school for children could be a solution. It's very concerning that children, no matter their age, would be without education for 6 months. Teachers will have double the work in bringing a group of 30 to the same level next autumn. Forget the summer hols this year for all of us...Get our children back to some type of educatio
n...

Sierra Oscar

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes agreed. As they have played a long game and schools were first to close I am fairly sure they will be amongst last back and therefore September. They would be a breeding ground for Covid. No social distancing can happen in schools with young children so it would be using our children and their families as an experiment.

The papers are full of commentary again today that the Government is planning to reopen some schools in the coming weeks.

It’s clearly a plan that is in the works.

It is hoped the current lockdown slows the virus to such an extent that will allow “space” for some restrictions to be eased – such as some pupils being allowed attend school on a limited basis – without risking a substantial rise in infections; if this happens, stricter measures will be reintroduced.

Government will ease restrictions on trial basis when spread is curbed

Don’t be surprised if schools remain open into the traditional summer holidays too.

Inviere

rob316 wrote: »

I just hope they reopen the special schools even, its been so hard on my son. Routine abruptly ended, hes just all over the place. Very small numbers in those classes so its manageable but i doubt the unions would allow some members work while others didn't.

It's very difficult for students attending special schools, their whole routine has come crashing down & many don't understand what is going on and why they aren't in school. However, in many special schools, a large number of those students have underlying health conditions & I'm not sure they should be among the first to come back.

munsterlegend

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The papers are full of commentary again today that the Government is planning to reopen some schools in the coming weeks.

It’s clearly a plan that is in the works.



Government will ease restrictions on trial basis when spread is curbed

Don’t be surprised if schools remain open into the traditional summer holidays too.

Looks like they definitely want to open the schools. Will be interesting which classes they propose.

KevinK

Inviere wrote: »

It's very difficult for students attending special schools, their whole routine has come crashing down & many don't understand what is going on and why they aren't in school. However, in many special schools, a large number of those students have underlying health conditions & I'm not sure they should be among the first to come back.

In many of the special classes I have worked in social distancing would be very hard to implement unless you have only one child per class.

The chan chan man

shoppergal wrote: »

Just wondering if anyone can give any insight into how schools could safely re-open in September?

Everyone I'm talking to is saying they won't be back until September but in my head I'm wondering how they'll re-open even in September? The virus will still be there with a vaccine still months away at that stage.

On one hand, they can’t open in sept if there is no mass produced vaccine, which there wont be. To open the schools then would mean all of this has been pointless.

On the other hand, my view is we cant keep this up long term without this resulting in civil unrest/mental health issues/widespread unemployment etc. i know 4 people now who have had it (all under 60) and it hasnt even been that bad for them! The people dying had no more than 5-7 years left anyway at best! I know others over 80 who couldnt care less - they know something’s gonna get them sooner or later!

As such, i would question if we should just move on with life and whatever happens happens... I’m not even sure if I agree with myself...but its a question the world needs to ask itself at some stage. And even if we do, again, this has all been in vain.

Inviere

KevinK wrote: »

In many of the special classes I have worked in social distancing would be very hard to implement unless you have only one child per class.

Very much so. Couple that with the types of challenging behaviour which can occur in some special schools, ie, spitting, etc...such schools would be extremely difficult to maintain safety in (for other students AND staff)

cart man

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

I suspect that crèches and the junior groups and preschools who need most parental supervision will be first back to get parents back to work. That and the Leaving certs will be the goals. Everything else is completely up in the air I think

Many with a young family share the same wishful thinking.
The reality is that they will be the last back. The younger kids would be the less disciplined at washing hands, using tissues etc, it would be a hot bed for transmission.

Pete_Cavan

Despite the official figures, there is likely to be tens of thousands of people here who have/had it. By September, that is likely to be hundreds of thousands. The spread of the virus will have changed by then. The death rate will also have changed. You can't predict what will happen in September based on the current situation, things will be different then.