NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

1 unit on each: Chiefs to win 2.66, Steelers -7 1.95, Chargers -13.5 1.95.

Fair play sticking to your guns! The fact that it's on monday night might actually help KC. The atmosphere will be electric there. New England got caught on the hop last year against Carolina with a similar line if I remember correctly.

Nothing sticking out majorly so far but I can't see the Packers not bouncing back in a must win game against the Bears so I'd be on the -1 there. The only line I'm a bit surprised at is the Lions as 2 point favs at the Jets. The Jets have looked good in all of their games so far and could easily be 3-0. The Lions struggle away from Ford Field and it will be all on Stafford this week as Bush won't run on the Jets Defence.

Again only going on Bet365 but since Monday the Colts have gone from -7 to -7.5, the Chargers from -13.5 to -13 and the biggest movers were the 49rs from -4.5 to -5.5.

matthew8

I'd rather it was 1pm Sunday tbh. I have a fear that a big Monday night game might make the Patriots remember who they are. They were underdogs when losing to Carolina last year btw (a fair mark considering they were playing the NFC's third best side).

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

I'd rather it was 1pm Sunday tbh. I have a fear that a big Monday night game might make the Patriots remember who they are. They were underdogs when losing to Carolina last year btw (a fair mark considering they were playing the NFC's third best side).

Well the pats need a spark alright. Carolina will be hurting after last week, that will be some slobberknocker between them and the Ravens! Less than 20 pts scored :eek:

padraig_f

skippymac6 wrote: »

Nothing sticking out majorly so far but I can't see the Packers not bouncing back in a must win game against the Bears so I'd be on the -1 there.

Personally I jumped on the Bears +1.5, and I'm not under any illusions that they're world-beaters, but think they're similar rank to the Packers and the line should be -2.5/-3. The line ranks the Packers 4 points better than the Bears, you really think that's under-rating them?

Also must-win is a kind of over-rated factor here, it's Bears-Packers, the two teams are always motivated.

copey

Seahawks are terrible odds

skippymac6

padraig_f wrote: »

Personally I jumped on the Bears +1.5, and I'm not under any illusions that they're world-beaters, but think they're similar rank to the Packers and the line should be -2.5/-3. The line ranks the Packers 4 points better than the Bears, you really think that's under-rating them?

Also must-win is a kind of over-rated factor here, it's Bears-Packers, the two teams are always motivated.

Yeah I hear you on that front and I was expecting the Bears to be -1 or -2. Having watched the Jets-Bears game I thought they were extremely lucky to get out of there with a win. The main thing (for the Packers) that I took out of the game was the lack of a pass rush generated by the Bears. The O-Line for the packers has been woeful so far so hopefully there will be a big improvement there.

I agree though that most people will get on the Bears as home underdogs. I will hold off making the bet for the minute in the hope that it goes somewhere near a scratch game. I honestly do feel that the Bears have got off the hook the last two games on the back of opportunistic turnovers and I would be confident of the Packers winning if they can restrict them in that area.

padraig_f

skippymac6 wrote: »

Yeah I hear you on that front and I was expecting the Bears to be -1 or -2. Having watched the Jets-Bears game I thought they were extremely lucky to get out of there with a win. The main thing (for the Packers) that I took out of the game was the lack of a pass rush generated by the Bears. The O-Line for the packers has been woeful so far so hopefully there will be a big improvement there.

I agree though that most people will get on the Bears as home underdogs. I will hold off making the bet for the minute in the hope that it goes somewhere near a scratch game. I honestly do feel that the Bears have got off the hook the last two games on the back of opportunistic turnovers and I would be confident of the Packers winning if they can restrict them in that area.

Yeah I agree they got breaks in their last two games, and was also disappointed in the pass-rush against the Jets. I think the Bears d-line will get there, it just hasn't clicked yet. It was an overhaul in the summer, but individually there have been good signs. Ratliff has helped shore up the interior run-stopping, Lamarr Houston on the left edge has been pretty consistently good. Also good has been Willie Young on the backup right edge. Jared Allen hasn't been great, but is probably not finished yet.

I think the d-line is going to be good, and aren't that far away from it, but that's probably the most important matchup alright. Maybe an option is an in-running bet, after looking at that matchup for the first couple of series.

Morrison J

Morrison J wrote: »

Anyone like Kelvin Benjamin to be OROY at 17/1 with Paddys? I think he's one of about 3 players (Cook & Bortles) that have a genuine good chance of winning it. Good value imo.

I'm getting good value for money anyway! Just hoping Bortles and Bridgewater don't play too well now they're starters.

Whiplash85

Morrison J wrote: »

I'm getting good value for money anyway! Just hoping Bortles and Bridgewater don't play too well now they're starters.

Brandin Cooks is a big danger too. He will be targeted more and more now by Brees as Colston seems past his prime and Kenny Stills only offers a deep threat. At the moment Benjamin is in poll position with Cooks close behind.

Morrison J

Whiplash85 wrote: »

Brandin Cooks is a big danger too. He will be targeted more and more now by Brees as Colston seems past his prime and Kenny Stills only offers a deep threat. At the moment Benjamin is in poll position with Cooks close behind.

Yeah definitely.

Cooks has always been the main threat. I think Jimmy Graham takes away Cooks TD numbers big time though. Benjamin being Newton's go to man in the redzone is a big advantage.
Now that Sankey is going to get an increased role with the Titans he could end up in the conversation also.

Still though, 17/1 were outrageous odds no matter what happens.

Warper

The only bet i see this weekend is the Cowboys at home to the Saints @ 6-4. Watched the Saints last weekend and they were really poor. Romo is hit and miss but the Saints are woeful away.

skippymac6

Morrison J wrote: »

Yeah definitely.

Cooks has always been the main threat. I think Jimmy Graham takes away Cooks TD numbers big time though. Benjamin being Newton's go to man in the redzone is a big advantage.
Now that Sankey is going to get an increased role with the Titans he could end up in the conversation also.

Still though, 17/1 were outrageous odds no matter what happens.

Ah don't mention the war. Backed him at 17/1 but cashed out (before the season even started) as i wanted to get a few more quid on a bet that I thought was bulletproof and didnt want to put any more cash in the account. That bet duly lost and now I'm without the Benjamin bet!

Cooks is a massive threat as you say and if somehow Bortles could inspire the Jags to even three wins, forget OROTY award, he should be getting the MVP! :D

Whiplash85

Warper wrote: »

The only bet i see this weekend is the Cowboys at home to the Saints @ 6-4. Watched the Saints last weekend and they were really poor. Romo is hit and miss but the Saints are woeful away.

Playing in a dome and not outside on grass and in the elements should suit New Orleans though. They have a pretty good defence against the run which should restrict Murray. Morris Claiborne is benched as well. Dallas's scondary is shocking. I think they are haunted to be 2-1 whereas the saints are unlucky to be 1-2. I think the spread is fair. Again Romo just mixes the sublime with the terrible. By his own admission his pre season injuries wore off during that game against the rams but he is prone to turnovers. Brees is turnover free. I think that will ultimately decide this game.

The best picks on the board this week for me are

Detroit v's Jets. Detroit are serious dark horses IMO.
Atlanta v's Minny.

And a sneaky one on KC to take down a misfiring New England in Arrowhead (straight up).

matthew8

Dallas don't seem to enjoy the same home field advantage that most teams do. There'll probably be thousands of Saints in the stadium. Saints should torch Dallas's pass defense too.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

Dallas don't seem to enjoy the same home field advantage that most teams do. There'll probably be thousands of Saints in the stadium. Saints should torch Dallas's pass defense too.

Yeah have to agree here. If it was on turf and maybe somewhere a bit north I'd have to say that it woudl be an issue. Fact is they're not going to far and playing in the domed confines will help them too. Wouldn't put it past Tony but think the Saints take this one before they play the hapless Buccs next week and then their bye.

padraig_f

Comparison of pre-season week 4 lines with today's (pre-season line in brackets, taken from SportsInsights):

TNF
Giants @ Redskins -3.5 (-1.5)

Sun 6pm
Bills @ Texans -3 (-5)
Panthers @ Ravens -3 (-1)
Lions @ Jets +1.5 (+1)
Packers @ Bears +1.5 (-1.5)
Dolphins @ Raiders +4 (+5)
Bucs @ Steelers -7.5 (-3.5)
Titans @ Colts -7.5 (-7.5)

Sun 9pm
Jags @ Chargers -13 (-10)
Falcons @ Vikings +3 (+1)
Eagles @ 49ers -5.5 (-6)

SNF
Saints @ Cowboys +3 (+0)

MNF
Patriots @ Chiefs +3.5 (-1)


Ones that jump out at me there....maybe Colts as an under-reaction. Chiefs with the 4.5 point move, and Eagles as possibly an underreaction to the 49ers' woes.

matthew8

Amazing to me is the Saints-Cowboys one. Cowboys have hardly impressed but expectations were really low to begin with, while the Saints have been anything but impressive.

skippymac6

Should be an interesting game this evening. Both teams desperate for a win and the loser (even this early) could be struggling for the rest of the year. Both teams have shown glimpses of ability so far. The Giants probably should have beaten the Cardinals in week 2 but for some woeful turnovers and special teams play. The Redskins hung tight against both the Eagles and the Texans and led by at least a TD in both. Watching Eli play the last two weeks, on bare numbers he hasn't exactly lit it up, but he has made consistently good throws and has been let down by routes and drops by his receivers. The big thing though is that the Giants offensive line is their weakness and with Hatcher, Orakpo and Kerrigan pressurising them, I think they'll have success. Giants have been running it well but the Redskins give up less than 70 yards on the ground and haven't given up a rushing TD yet this season. Redskins rank 2nd in the NFL in offence and 4th in Defence where the Giants stats in those categories are 25th and 22nd. I know that stats can be misleading and the Skins have played (apart from the Eagles) two weak offences but thats still pretty decent. I think Redskins -3.5 all things considered.

SameOleJay

Any thoughts on the Bears Packers line?

Seems a very strange shift to me, I would have thought feeling on Green Bay would have been substantially more positive in pre-season.

Bateman

I don't think the Giants are as bad as some have been saying. Eli in particular has suffered from receivers dropping passes when they’re on the money. I certainly don’t think Washington should be favoured by any more than a FG and probably less. I also think Chicago should be favs v the Packers.

skippymac6

Bateman wrote: »

I don't think the Giants are as bad as some have been saying. Eli in particular has suffered from receivers dropping passes when they’re on the money. I certainly don’t think Washington should be favoured by any more than a FG and probably less. I also think Chicago should be favs v the Packers.

Yeah I agree. I watched the last two Giants games with Eli playing very well. I think they have a good chance but the standard 3 point play applies which makes the Skins -3. I am going to back the -3.5 and then hedge with the Skins to win by exactly 3 points.

Thought the Bears would be favs myself as I stated before but with Bulaga back that's a massive plus for the Packers. If Matthews is able to play then I'd be leaning to back the Packers just on the money line. They usually play well against the Bears but I will be leaving this one alone until just before kick off where I hope it becomes more of a scratch game.

padraig_f

Took the Chiefs +3.5, actually haven't seen that much of them, but think I've seen enough of the Patriots to like the +3.5 at Arrowhead.

Billy86

No chance in hell I would bet much on the Giants/Redskins match, NFC East games are a nightmare to predict, and matches between those two teams are probably worst of the lot for it.

Bears/Packers is another tough one to call since form goes out the window with those two a good bit also. Packers have the corners to at least limit Marshall/Jeffery/Holmes but safety play might be an issue (Clinton Dix is looking promising covering, but needs to work a lot on his to tackling; Burnett is in the process of playing himself out of a starting role), and ILB is a disaster position. Getting a pass rush will be vital, but Matthews and Peppers are carrying knocks.

On the other side, the Packers line have struggled terribly, but Chicago are nowhere near the quality of the Jets, Seahawks or Lions in their defensive line, and Bulaga should be in better condition again. The Bears have also picked up an extraordinary number of injuries in the last two weeks which Rodgers, Nelson and co might be able to pick apart if he can get enough time in the pocket.

It's another one I would avoid unless there is movement in the over/under lune (currently at 50.0 points).

kryogen

I am sorely tempted to go in on the Chiefs straight up never mind getting points, the O line has been absolutely brutal, if that doesn't get better fast it is going to be another long night and the Chiefs are not an inept team like the Raiders.

Billy86

A lot depends on who is fit for the Chiefs and who is not, I reckon.

JaMarcusHustle

Think I'll go with the Giants +3 tonight. One of those games where it has to be the team getting points.

matthew8

Panthers +3.5 is appealing. That handicap supposes the Ravens are a better team in general, which doesn't look like the case to me. Monroe could be a big loss to the Ravens offense. Panthers +3.5 1 unit 1.87.

eagle eye

Neither team can defend and they can both score big against bad D's so I've got on an alternative points total, over 49.5. I'm projecting over 55 points in this one.

padraig_f

Watched Redskins-Eagles, the Redskins outplayed them despite losing the game. Has put me off betting the Eagles against the 49ers. Their offensive-line looks too much of a worry....couldn't run the ball & Foles had very little time.

Kirk Cousins looks competent, had a couple of nice throws...

Hulk Hands

Was going to leave it tonight unless the spread dropped to a solid -3, which it finally did about an hour ago. This opened at -6, so there looks to be value with the Redskins. Spread looks to rise again before kickoff to -3.5 now the pros are getting their fill.