NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

jester1980

Got burnt on that last night, didnt see that result coming

SameOleJay

The NFC East. Every single season I tell myself to stay away.

And I can’t.

skippymac6

SameOleJay wrote: »

The NFC East. Every single season I tell myself to stay away.

And I can’t.

Ha same as. Nightmare!

Billy86

SameOleJay wrote: »

The NFC East. Every single season I tell myself to stay away.

And I can’t.

As much as I said a few posts back to a old it like the plague, I knew I would be watching it so got reeled in. It's such a crap shoot I just looked for the winner/over-under double with the longest odds and took Giants to win over 53.5 points total at 6/1. Paid off too!

I also put a covering fiver on the Redskins to win right after the Eli ran in a touchdown to make it 31-14 with about 6 minutes left in the third quarter. Then Cousins went on the biggest 20 minute run of interceptions of possibly the last 20+ years.

So all in all, tenner on, 35 back, can't complain!

skippymac6

Billy86 wrote: »

As much as I said a few posts back to a old it like the plague, I knew I would be watching it so got reeled in. It's such a crap shoot I just looked for the winner/over-under double with the longest odds and took Giants to win over 53.5 points total at 6/1. Paid off too!

I also put a covering fiver on the Redskins to win right after the Eli ran in a touchdown to make it 31-14 with about 6 minutes left in the third quarter. Then Cousins went on the biggest 20 minute run of interceptions of possibly the last 20+ years.

So all in all, tenner on, 35 back, can't complain!

Happy out. If only it was always that simple/effective!

Billy86

skippymac6 wrote: »

Happy out. If only it was always that simple/effective!

I think it's my new rule of thumb for NFC east games, because it really is just rolling a dicen and hoping for the best.

Kind of like Ravens/Steelers games, most years with them I just take the handicap on the underdog if there is more than 2.5 points on the line. Typically go for the under if it's near the mid 40s with them though, at least with those games you know if will typically be quite low scoring.

kryogen

SameOleJay wrote: »

The NFC East. Every single season I tell myself to stay away.

And I can’t.

The only thing I normally bet on in those games is points, last night was no exception

kryogen

Have three bets this week

Big bet is the double



Then two hopeful ones, super yankee



and a heinz I did a couple of days ago

SameOleJay

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 20m
Barring a surprising improvement, #Titans QB Jake Locker (wrist) won’t play today vs. #Colts, I’m told. Plan is to see Charlie Whitehurst

For anyone unfamiliar with the Clipboard Jesus here's Grantland's piece on him this week.

Jake Locker is very questionable to suit up for this game with a wrist injury, which would open the door for Charlie Whitehurst to start at quarterback for Tennessee. Just for a moment, let’s go back and run through Whitehurst’s career:

• Whitehurst grows to 6-foot-5.

• He spends four years at Clemson, during which he fails to complete 60 percent of his passes (ending at 59.7 percent) and throws nearly as many interceptions (46) as touchdowns (49). The Tigers go 30-19 during his time in school.

• The Chargers draft Whitehurst in the third round of the 2006 NFL draft.

• Whitehurst spends four years as the third-string quarterback in San Diego behind Philip Rivers and Billy Volek. He does not attempt a regular-season pass. His only experience comes during the 2006-09 preseasons, during which Whitehurst goes 104-of-197 (52.8 percent) for 1,031 yards (5.2 yards per attempt) with five touchdowns and seven interceptions.8

• Seattle’s new brain trust of Pete Carroll and John Schneider targets Whitehurst in a trade, getting their man by sending San Diego a future third-round pick and swapping Seattle’s second-round pick (40th) for San Diego’s (60th) in the 2010 draft.9 They also immediately give Whitehurst a two-year, $8 million contract extension.

• Whitehurst enters into a quarterback competition with 35-year-old incumbent Matt Hasselbeck.

• Whitehurst loses that quarterback competition.

• Whitehurst plays in nine regular-season games over two seasons with Seattle, starting four, most notably the division-clinching win over St. Louis in the fail-in game on Sunday Night Football in Week 17 of the 2010 season. He is benched in his last start after seven pass attempts for an already-injured Tarvaris Jackson. Over the two-year span, Whitehurst goes 84-of-155 (54.2 percent) for 805 yards (a terrifying 5.2 yards per attempt) while throwing three touchdowns and four picks.

• Returning to unrestricted free agency, Whitehurst signs a two-year, $3.05 million deal with the Chargers, including a $1 million signing bonus.

• Now 30 years old, Whitehurst spends 2012 and 2013 as the backup to Philip Rivers without throwing a regular-season pass. He takes 12 snaps during his stint with the Chargers, producing six handoffs and six kneel-downs for a total of minus-5 yards.

• Chargers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt takes over as Tennessee’s head coach and brings Whitehurst along for the ride, giving the now 32-year-old a two-year, $4.3 million deal with $2 million guaranteed.

There are virtually no reasons to think that Whitehurst has any aptitude as an NFL quarterback. He wasn’t especially good in college. He didn’t impress anybody against third-stringers in the preseason. He was downright awful during the brief time he had as a starter, and that came and went nearly three years ago. The most obvious reason Whitehurst has continued to be employed as an NFL quarterback is that he was previously employed as an NFL quarterback.

For that résumé, Whitehurst has earned in excess of $15 million during his time in the NFL, with more than $1 million to come in 2015. Whitehurst is the definition of a replacement-level quarterback; in a totally free market, I suspect you could have offered him $35,000 a year (with serious playing-time incentives) to do the same job and he would have happily taken it.

This may sound like I’m jealous of Whitehurst or bitter about his success. I’m only jealous of his hair. In general, I’m wildly happy for Whitehurst, who is apparently an incredible hustler and a really nice guy, because you don’t get cushy backup quarterback jobs if you’re a dick. Whitehurst has lived in some of America’s most beautiful cities and collected millions of dollars almost exclusively to practice and serve as a de facto coach. God bless Charlie Whitehurst.

I was taking Colts -7 anyway but it's still there so I'm a max bet now. Fingers crossed.

JaMarcusHustle

Buffalo Bills (+3) @ Houston Texans
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) - Currently at +3 but I'll buy the extra .5. Will probably be 3.5 before kickoff.
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - as above
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (+3) - happy to take this at +3, but could go as high as +4 by kickoff
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Take the extra .5 for comfort

My bets for the day.

padraig_f

Didn't see a whole lot of value this week, a lot of the lines seemed pretty close.

I'm on:

Bears +1.5 vs. Packers (go Bears!)

Falcons @ Vikings - under 46.5
- Didn't think Bridgewater looked ready last week, seemed like his reads were muddy, but he does seem quite cautious with the football. Also think the Vikings defense is decent. Expect the Falcons to get ahead, and run the ball a lot.

Also did accumulator of: Falcons -3 and Under 46.5.

Small accumulator for some leans: Bills +3, Jets +1.5, Bears +1.5


MNF: Chiefs +3.5 vs. Patriots.

matthew8

Colts -7.5 1.99 1 unit.

Paully D

I like Atlanta, San Diego, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and New Orleans against the spread. Singles and a small 5-fold.

Billy86

Two tenner bets:

Steelers -7.5 vs Bucs, Colts -7.5 vs Titans, Chargers to score 30 or more vs Jags (29 points will give a push)... all home teams, fraction over 6/1 odds.

Rodgers to pass 256 or more passing yards @ Bears, Kelvin Benjamin to get 72 or more receiving yards @ Ravens at 2.3/1 odds. Definitely getting on the Benjamin hype train, thought he might take most of the season to acclimatise but that's definitely not looking the case!

Hulk Hands

Strongly feel the Vikings are on the right side tonight. They were decent against the Saints until a bad call spin the game completely. This line was +1.5 last week, yet I expect to get +4.5 before kickoff. Had a small parlay on Vikings +4 and under 47.5 at nearly 3/1 with Pinnacle. I like Asiata over 40.5 rushing with Ladbrokes in that game. Elsewhere ive taken the 49erw ht eagles ft at 9/1 given the respective teams performances in each half thus far. Also on the Jets to win Q3 as they usually choose to kick from the off. If the line goes to 2.5 later in the Saints game, which it looks like, ill be on them also

Billy86

Also realised I have a €2 free bet lying around in my Paddy Power account, so went for a bit of a stupid accumulator to keep track of stats.

Cam Newton 238+ yards passing
Leveon Bell 83+ rushing
Megatron 94+ receiving
Jordy Nelson 81+ receiving
Reggie White 63+ receiving
Annual Boldon 61+ receiving

Probably just throwing the freezer away, but if it comes off I get a €76 return.

eagle eye

Trebles and accum. on Dolphins -4, Steelers -7, Lions +1.5 and Texans -2.5.

I've taken an alternate line and bet big on the Chicago Bears, took -4 @ 2/1. I think they are underrated defensively and they have a lot going for them offensively right now.

Hulk Hands

One more, Houston -2.5 now its gone 10/11. Hard to think the Bills are a full point better than Houston. Take out the NY game and this line is -4.5

kev_s88

Colts (-7.5) @ 21/20
Packers vs Bears Over 51.5 pts @20/21
Panthers vs Ravens under 42 @ 10/11
Bills to beat Texans @ 7/5
Lions to beat Jets @ 5/6
Raiders (+3.5) @ 5/6
Bucs vs Steelers over 45 @ 20/23

Accumulator giving total odds of just over 100/1. Wouldnt say no to that

Oat23

Jumped on DeAngelo over 51 yards rushing after Stewart was ruled inactive and now he is hurt after picking up 34 early.

Lovely.

kryogen

****ing delighted with the Steelers/Bucs game! You give up that many penalties and fail to cover the spread for me then I hope you lose every time! None of this winning the game but failing to cover Get in there!

Billy86

Billy86 wrote: »

Two tenner bets:

Steelers -7.5 vs Bucs, Colts -7.5 vs Titans, Chargers to score 30 or more vs Jags (29 points will give a push)... all home teams, fraction over 6/1 odds.

Rodgers to pass 256 or more passing yards @ Bears, Kelvin Benjamin to get 72 or more receiving yards @ Ravens at 2.3/1 odds. Definitely getting on the Benjamin hype train, thought he might take most of the season to acclimatise but that's definitely not looking the case!

Fecking Steelers cost me 70 beans on a 6/1 bet! Delighted they lost, hare when one team costs you an accumulator and still wins. :pac:

Won on Rodgers/Benjamin (barely, Benjamin caught a 14 yarded with 8 seconds left in the game) and put the winnings on Keenan Allen 65.5+ yards and Roddy White 62.5+ yards (€qw each, 5/6 odds each). Allen is way over at 109yds currently but Roddy White has been stuck on 44 yards for ages after a fast start to the game and has dropped about 50 yards worth of catches.

Was considering Boldon 61.5+ yards instead of him, he's currently on 50...

EDIT: Just FOUR more yards needed from Roddy now going into the fourth! Falcons have the lead now though and he only has 3 catches off 11 targets so I'm not holding my breath, those drops are going to kill me!

jj1

Tampa Bay owe a lot of us a few quid. How dare they win Pittsburgh after getting hockeyed last week.

They bust my treble & it was a straight bet, no handicap.

JaMarcusHustle

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Buffalo Bills (+3) @ Houston Texans
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) - Currently at +3 but I'll buy the extra .5. Will probably be 3.5 before kickoff.
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - as above
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (+3) - happy to take this at +3, but could go as high as +4 by kickoff
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Take the extra .5 for comfort

My bets for the day.

Bills and Panthers let me down, but the Bucs, Vikings and Packers did the jobs. On the Chiefs tonight so a 2 point victory for the Pats and I'll be happy

kryogen

Getting my game day bout of optimism, but I have the Chiefs backed already so gonna leave it go for now

skippymac6

Stuck with the Packers and like you Billy86 I took Rodgers over 251.5 yards. Thought it would be 280 with the state of the Bears secondary. Colts -7 and Texans -3 also came in but was badly burnt on the Steelers (like most it seems) in my treble along with the Ravens and Colts that I couldnt see losing!

Also had the Jets to beat the Lions which didnt come good and just had the unders in the Atlanta game which never came close to coming in! All in all about a break even weekend. Still think the Pats get the job done tonight and I'll take them on the spread tonight. It's -3 at evens at the minute but with a lot of people getting on the Chiefs, I'm going to hold off until later and see if that maybe drops to -2 or -2.5.

kryogen

I think the line may shift to closer to 3.5 later on, so if you do intend to bet on them personally I would do it now, there will be an awful lot of money put down on the Pats (like always) over the course of the day

Hulk Hands

If anything the line will drop over the next few hours. Anyone waiting on -2.5 Patriots will get it id say, at 5/6 probably. What happens in the couple of hours before kick off is anyone's guess, may go back up

skippymac6

At the worst I think it will be 5/6 for -3. Paddypower, Bet365 and Boyles have it all at evens at the minute. Coral have it at 5/6 for -2.5 right now too.

Think I'll take a chance and leave it for a few hours and see which way it goes. As I said, the worst thing I see happening is having to shop around for -3 at 5/6.

Hulk Hands

Yep -2.5 fairly freely available there now. I'm tempted but am loath to lay points in one I think may be low scoring. Ill hold off in the hope of seeing 4/5 pats to win the match outright, I think that's a bet