NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

Warper

Ive got my double on already for next Sunday, Cowboys -3.5 home to the Texans and Detroit -7 home to the Bills, both 10-11 Bwin

matthew8

GB 10 point faves home to Minnesota. Maybe too much given the Vikings have a decent offense now and should walk all over that defense?

padraig_f

matthew8 wrote: »

GB 10 point faves home to Minnesota. Maybe too much given the Vikings have a decent offense now and should walk all over that defense?

Definitely getting some value fading the Green Bay side, gave up 496 yards of offense yesterday, didn't show up on the scoreboard for various reasons, Bears screwups, and refs to a certain extent.

Hulk Hands

Warper wrote: »

Ive got my double on already for next Sunday, Cowboys -3.5 home to the Texans and Detroit -7 home to the Bills, both 10-11 Bwin

I've want to back an opposite one of those. The Cowboys only get 2 points for homefield and I can't see how theyre currently a full point and a half better than the Texans as a side. I think its a bit of an overreaction to the Cowboys beating the Saints. Id take the Bears +3 at Carolina with bwin also. Think ill have to open an account in the woman's name or something. Bwin are golden for these early lines

poldebruin

Had a cheeky punt on Chiefs over Patriots outright tonight. I was a bit surprised that the Chiefs were getting +3 and are at home.
The Chiefs have looked fairly decent, gave the Broncos all they could handle in week 2 while the Patriots look completely out of sorts and struggled against the Raiders - the same Raiders that got destroyed by the Dolphins yesterday. Their OL was made to look poor by the Raiders. I don't think I've ever seen as much interior pressure and penetration without extra men being brought.

skippymac6

Well that did not go to script! Easily got the -2.5 on the pats but obviously that went south very quickly! Like the above poster mentions, the pressure brought by the chiefs was immense and really the only time that the pats were able to exert any pressure of their own was when Chandler Jones got around Fisher for a sack early on. The patriots inability to convert on short or intermediate third downs really hurt them as they gave the ball back to the chiefs who with Smith and the rushing game looking very polished, just tore them apart. Belicheck won't be happy with this one and shows up some major flaws that were possibly not exposed against the lesser opponents they've faced all year. Great shout on the chiefs by a number of people on here though, they were full value for it!

matthew8

+3.41 now (15 total staked), putting 1 unit on Atlanta +4.5 1.94 (I think it should be 1-3 points further towards Atlanta, think they're as good as Giants and Ryan won't go on the run Cousins went on) while also very much liking the look of Saints -10.5 and Patriots +1.

Deco99

Any particular superbowl bets after 4 games. I get the feeling someone outside first three in betting could spring a surprise? Colts? Prob dont have the squad but luck is mvp. 25s??? Bengals?

padraig_f

Deco99 wrote: »

Any particular superbowl bets after 4 games. I get the feeling someone outside first three in betting could spring a surprise? Colts? Prob dont have the squad but luck is mvp. 25s??? Bengals?

Super Bowl futures tend not to be great value, so wouldn't put too much on it. But if you want a dark horse, I'd say the Chargers (14/1), they have the QB, already 3-1 and beaten the Seahawks, coming through the softer AFC.

Bateman

padraig_f wrote: »

Super Bowl futures tend not to be great value, so wouldn't put too much on it. But if you want a dark horse, I'd say the Chargers (14/1), they have the QB, already 3-1 and beaten the Seahawks, coming through the softer AFC.

Them and the Saints seemed to be the trendy teams pre-season with the numbers nerds. The Saints were smashed in the market, 33 to 16 or something. Probably for that reason only, from the two I luckily went with the Chargers at 47 on betfair.

Warper

The team that look the most value to me are the Cowboys at 40-1. I have backed the 49'ers pre-season and i still like them. No value on Broncos/Seahawks but so far the Cowboys have impressed me.

padraig_f

Bateman wrote: »

Them and the Saints seemed to be the trendy teams pre-season with the numbers nerds. The Saints were smashed in the market, 33 to 16 or something. Probably for that reason only, from the two I luckily went with the Chargers at 47 on betfair.

That's a good price. I thought they looked great in that game against the Seahawks, you don't get easy wins against them.

skippymac6

padraig_f wrote: »

That's a good price. I thought they looked great in that game against the Seahawks, you don't get easy wins against them.

The Chargers are a good side but you feel that they probably have to win the division to get out of the AFC. I know they beat the Bengals in Cincy in the playoffs last year and then put it up to the Broncos but I think they will come up short again if they don't finish the season ahead of the Broncos.

The way they are playing though has given them every chance. Their next three games are the Jets, @ Raiders and Chiefs at home too. If they win those three (or certainly 2 of the 3) then they will go into that Thursday night game full of confidence at Denver.

padraig_f

skippymac6 wrote: »

The Chargers are a good side but you feel that they probably have to win the division to get out of the AFC. I know they beat the Bengals in Cincy in the playoffs last year and then put it up to the Broncos but I think they will come up short again if they don't finish the season ahead of the Broncos.

The way they are playing though has given them every chance. Their next three games are the Jets, @ Raiders and Chiefs at home too. If they win those three (or certainly 2 of the 3) then they will go into that Thursday night game full of confidence at Denver.

Yeah I suppose that's a negative against them alright, will have to go the wild card route if they don't finish ahead of Denver. But did play them pretty well last year, 1-1 in the regular season and lost by a touchdown in the playoffs, so not a given that they'll be a wild card. Will be a good one at Mile High in a few weeks.

matthew8

Chargers are 14/1 best price now. I rate them and if the season ended now Rivers would be my MVP but couldn't be a backer at that price. Defense and running game not good enough for me right now.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

Chargers are 14/1 best price now. I rate them and if the season ended now Rivers would be my MVP but couldn't be a backer at that price. Defense and running game not good enough for me right now.

Yeah it's only 4 games into the year too. Other teams will fall off/come back into contention now over the next few weeks. Lot of football to be played so if you haven't backed anyone at this stage I'd leave it for a few more weeks. I had GB and NO pre-season as my superbowl picks at 16/1 each. Wouldn't mind changing the NO pick! They should make the playoffs still in the weak NFC South but can't see them winning many matches away from the Superdome.

Bateman

I don't rate beating Denver as an impossible feat at all to be honest. Assuming they're in the AFC title game, which is a bit of a leap in the first place, I don't think any team travelling to Mile High (Baltimore, Indy, San Diego, Cinci) will be exactly petrified of them.

Getting to 2 Superbowls on the trot is an enormous achievement (even if we don't give the losers any credit) and I am not sure Denver are up to it.

eagle eye

I'm seriously tempted to back the Cards straight to beat the Broncos this week.

JaMarcusHustle

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm seriously tempted to back the Cards straight to beat the Broncos this week.

Without Palmer? He was confident of playing when speaking before the bye week, but he's pretty much said he hasn't recovered as quickly as he thought he would. Doesn't sound good for him for this week.

Billy86

Palmer is nothing special to be honest. Sure there is every chance Drew Stanton shows last week was a fluke which is a big worry, but at the same time I've just found Palmer to be one of (if not the) most overrated QB of the last decade and put his return to form down to Bruce Arians as much as anything. He hasn't been the same since his injuries (and his first three or so years in Cincinnati were really good).

JaMarcusHustle

Billy86 wrote: »

Palmer is nothing special to be honest. Sure there is every chance Drew Stanton shows last week was a fluke which is a big worry, but at the same time I've just found Palmer to be one of (if not the) most overrated QB of the last decade and put his return to form down to Bruce Arians as much as anything. He hasn't been the same since his injuries (and his first three or so years in Cincinnati were really good).

Oh I'm not singing Palmer's praises or anything, I'd just fancy the Cardinals chances a lot more with him under centre rather than Stanton. He's awful.

Hulk Hands

padraig_f wrote: »

Super Bowl futures tend not to be great value, so wouldn't put too much on it. But if you want a dark horse, I'd say the Chargers (14/1), they have the QB, already 3-1 and beaten the Seahawks, coming through the softer AFC.

Why do you say that? The exchange market is currently betting to 102%, so little or no margin. Even best price with the fixed odds bookies are only betting about 85% the top 12 in the market. There's a view from 'pros' in the U.S to stay away from antepost betting which which makes a bit of sense in their high margin market, but the margins are small over here. I had one antepost bet today, the Bengals at 5/1 for the AFC, 1/2 the odds e/w 2 places. That's 5/2 to even make the AFC championship game. Great value that they could likely never get in the states. The fact that the UK's third most important bookie William Hill, went in last year and took over half the bricks and mortar bookies in Vegas, shows what a joke their industry is. I'd place very little relevance in it.

eagle eye

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Without Palmer? He was confident of playing when speaking before the bye week, but he's pretty much said he hasn't recovered as quickly as he thought he would. Doesn't sound good for him for this week.

Yep even with Stanton as starter. He did well enough against the 49ers and has had a bye week to get even more in sync with his teammates. Two starts and two wins under his best now and I just like what this team is doing on offense. Their D is exceptional too and I fancy they can keep the Broncos in the low 20's on points. I fancy they'll win it by a td.

UnitedIrishman

I'm with Jamarcus on this one. Wouldn't be backing them without Palmer lining up. Their D is excellent but I'd fancy Peyton to find a way through them. Add to that Stanton had completions of 48% and 54% in his last to games. If the Cards go behind then they're going to struggle to stay on the field IMO no less win the game.

Hulk Hands

Bear in mind that Palmer suiting up will effect the price either way. Personally if I was backing id rather take 7/2 with Stanton than 5/2 with Palmer. Just wait for an announcement Sunday and he's announced to play, back it quick. If not, hold off until late on

padraig_f

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Why do you say that? The exchange market is currently betting to 102%, so little or no margin. Even best price with the fixed odds bookies are only betting about 85% the top 12 in the market. There's a view from 'pros' in the U.S to stay away from antepost betting which which makes a bit of sense in their high margin market, but the margins are small over here. I had one antepost bet today, the Bengals at 5/1 for the AFC, 1/2 the odds e/w 2 places. That's 5/2 to even make the AFC championship game. Great value that they could likely never get in the states. The fact that the UK's third most important bookie William Hill, went in last year and took over half the bricks and mortar bookies in Vegas, shows what a joke their industry is. I'd place very little relevance in it.

Ok if you get 102% then that's ok, don't think the average punter is looking at overrounds. I worked out the overround on Bet365 Super Bowl futures market there, to take one example, it's 130%. So for every €13 wagered on that market, bet365 are paying out €10. Tough to have such an edge on a team, that you can make a profit there.

Are you betting the Vikings on Thursday? I see the price is falling, and it's probably not public money that's moving it.

matthew8

Falcons +4.5, Patriots to win 2.02 and Saints -10 1.95 1 unit each. Never got on the Vikings because I think betting against Aaron Rodgers a lot has to go right to get your money and I don't back teams on the plus who I don't give a realistic chance of winning. If the line keeps on moving towards the Vikings (-8.5 now) might even back GB, but it would take -7 to make it a definite bet.

skippymac6

Early doors I can't see much differences in the prices set by the bookmakers and what I was thinking myself. A lot of straight field goal and TD favourites it seems with nothing really sticking out. Really looking forward to the Ravens vs Colts game and the Broncos vs Cardinals. Also for the first time this season the three "afternoon" games look like good ones.

Lot of teams on the precipice early too. If the Jets, Bears, Steelers, Bills or Falcons don't pick up tough victories on the road this week it could spell trouble for them.

Bateman

The pros all seemed to like the Jets last week and I couldn't touch them to be honest, I kind of feel the same tonight if they're on the Vikings.

Surely after the Vikings beating the Falcons last week and the Teddy Football hype, they're buying very high?

The game is probably a pass for me.

Onecoolcookie

Giants over Falcons looks good to me, Falcons OL is an absolute mess at the moment with the centre placed on IR and William Moore their best defensive player also out. If Eli is given time to throw he can be deadly and with zero pash rush from the Falcons he should have all the time in the world.