NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

Hulk Hands

padraig_f wrote: »

Are you betting the Vikings on Thursday? I see the price is falling, and it's probably not public money that's moving it.

Nah I won't touch it. I'd have considered it at 10.5. They could easily play well and lose by 14. If they get blown out tonight then they could be a bet against the Lions next week.

On the overrounds point, even at 130% that's only applying an average of 1% margin per selection. If you're backing a spread at 10/11 either side then that's 2% per selection. This is a concept that some of the so called 'sharps' in the US can't seem to get their head around. Anyway these days you'd hope people are actively seeking best price rather than sticking with the likes of 365

Bateman

Hulk Hands wrote: »

If you're backing a spread at 10/11 either side then that's 2% per selection. This is a concept that some of the so called 'sharps' in the US can't seem to get their head around.

I think they can, and the best of them are claiming to hit over 60% on a consistent basis to cover the juice and win money (whether they actually hit the % they say they do is another story ). Remember they don't have the infinite choice of throat-cutting competition among bookmakers and exchanges that we do so they have to make do with the prices they are presented with.

matthew8

GB -9.5 2.01 1 unit.

JaMarcusHustle

Teddy Throwsvelt is out tonight.

padraig_f

Hulk Hands wrote: »

On the overrounds point, even at 130% that's only applying an average of 1% margin per selection. If you're backing a spread at 10/11 either side then that's 2% per selection. This is a concept that some of the so called 'sharps' in the US can't seem to get their head around. Anyway these days you'd hope people are actively seeking best price rather than sticking with the likes of 365

Think your maths may be wrong there.

e.g. take 32 equally ranked teams, the odds will be 32.0 (decimal) in a 100% book.

For a 130% book, the odds given for each team will be: 32/1.3 = 24.6

(i.e. 32 * 1/24.6 = 130%)

Expected value will be: 24.6/32 (i.e. 1/32 chance, but only pays 24.6 times your stake back), which is 77%, or a loss of 23% of your original stake.


Much worse than a 10/11 bet, where the overround is 105%, and you expect to lose about 5%.

padraig_f

Maybe heart ruling the head, but I'm on team Ponder tonight, Vikings +9. More of a bet against Green Bay, whose defense I think is pretty poor, and their offense was made to look better than it is last week, with an awful Chicago defensive effort.

Didn't care too much about the game, but now I'm looking forward to it. That's what makes gambling cool.

Billy86

padraig_f wrote: »

Maybe heart ruling the head, but I'm on team Ponder tonight, Vikings +9. More of a bet against Green Bay, whose defense I think is pretty poor, and their offense was made to look better than it is last week, with an awful Chicago defensive effort.

Didn't care too much about the game, but now I'm looking forward to it. That's what makes gambling cool.

+9 is still a solid bet to be honest, GB have been giving up 176 rushing yards alone(!) per game and the Vikings did really well there against the Falcons. Also, Zimmer has a good history against Rodgers. The telling point could well be if the Packers line plays more like it did on Monday, or it the three weeks prior.

I went with GB -8.5 and over 48 points at 13/5, just a pure punt of a bet at a tenner when I heard Bridgewater was out. I was already thinking it was a dumb one (especially with the rain) but I always feel compelled to put a fiver or tenner on the Monday/Thursday games.

eagle eye

If Ponder can settle into it this game I see a very high scoring one. Just gone on over 52.5 @ 2/1.

Billy86

eagle eye wrote: »

If Ponder can settle into it this game I see a very high scoring one. Just gone on over 52.5 @ 2/1.

Nick. Of. Time.

I'm assuming you beat the Jordy Nelson TD by about 10 seconds.

eagle eye

Billy86 wrote: »

Nick. Of. Time.

I'm assuming you beat the Jordy Nelson TD by about 10 seconds.

I did and was delighted but we need more before halftime, its certainly slowed a bit now.

Billy86

Yep, and Ponder isn't going to be helping much. Best bet at this rate might be Packers to get the next 3 TDs hopefully quick enough and use backups in the fourth quarter with a lot of cover 2/prevent stuff, a bit like the Bucs/Falcons game two weeks back if you saw it.

eagle eye

Well I can see it happening now. The Packers might go run heavy early in the second half but Rogers won't be able to resist the deep ball if they open up the field with the run.

And surely the Vikes will find some way to get a td at some stage. Maybe they should try their other QB with how badly Ponder has done, thats if he is active.

Billy86

Awful feeling about a 45 point total here.

shamrock55

Well fcuk the vikings and ponder anyway, i had vikings to get over 10.5, they just cost me 125quid why not just take the 3 fcuking points:mad:

JaMarcusHustle

Think I've asked before but can we please ban after timing in here? Frostie?

skippymac6

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Think I've asked before but can we please ban after timing in here? Frostie?

Sorry pal took it off there. Didn't mean to upset anyone but you're right.

Looking forward to Sunday's games now. I don't think I've ever seen a Lions game with a points total of 43.5 in Ford Field but just shows you how good their defence is this year. Be interesting to see how that joker Orton gets on! Also looking forward to seeing if Alex Smith can exact some sort of revenge on the 49rs. Can't believe that sky are showing the Jets vs Chargers ahead of that game or the Broncos vs Cardinals.

Bateman

Current leans:
Arizona +
St Loius +
Indianapolis overs
My bet of the season so far was San Fran -4.5 last week, palpitations during that final drive so although some will like their spot this week, I think the Niners are a stay-away team for the time being

padraig_f

That Vikings bet wasn't much fun after all, looked in trouble after the first series or two. While Ponder wasn't very good, his protection was really bad, which was evident from the start. In hindsight, I should've maybe held off, and looked to do an in-running bet in the 1st quarter if I liked what I saw. Could be a useful angle for Thursday night games, where you often see one team that turns up, and another that's not at the races.

Still think GB are over-valued, the Vikings defense did quite well against them. The Packers only had 164 passing yards last night, with the short fields and turnovers. Should be a good spot to go against them next week, because the narrative is they're flying now, which I don't think is exactly the case.

Bateman

...and their early season slaughtering at Seattle looks even worse now considering Seattle have already dropped one to San Diego and had to sweat so much against Denver.

eagle eye

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Think I've asked before but can we please ban after timing in here? Frostie?

I don't get why people have a problem with 'aftertiming'. What's the issue with it?

JaMarcusHustle

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't get why people have a problem with 'aftertiming'. What's the issue with it?

Knew you'd take issue with that. Got 5/1 at Boyles that you'd say that and I bet a month's wages on it. Sorted for Christmas.

After timing is ridiculous. It serves no point whatsoever. At least if you put up your bets before hand, it generates discussion. If you don't have the balls to put your picks up before the point, then you shouldn't be able to gloat about them afterwards.

eagle eye

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Knew you'd take issue with that. Got 5/1 at Boyles that you'd say that and I bet a month's wages on it. Sorted for Christmas.

After timing is ridiculous. It serves no point whatsoever. At least if you put up your bets before hand, it generates discussion. If you don't have the balls to put your picks up before the point, then you shouldn't be able to gloat about them afterwards.

Its easy to ignore and sometimes you get genuine people who just want to share a big win.

If there is somebody at it on a regular basis the ignore feature is your friend if it irks you.

I personally don't have a problem with it and I don't understand how anybody else does. The purpose it serves is that somebody can share the news of his good fortune with others or even gloat about it. I don't see the big deal in people being allowed to do that.

There are lots of people out there who watch games and wouldn't have time to put their bets up before the game.

I'm not one who puts them up afterwards, I do put my bets up beforehand and its interesting to read others thoughts on it.

I think as long as its in the betting thread its fine. I think if they put up their bets, before or after, in other threads then I'd have a problem with it.

matthew8

Broncos -7.5 2.0 1 unit.

Paully D

Steelers (-6) @ Jaguars
Broncos (-7.5) vs Cardinals
Giants (-4) vs Falcons

PokeHerKing

Steelers -6.5
Cheifs +5
Houston +6.5

Billy86

Pretty tough week for bets I think. Have a tenner kn each of the following, all at 5/6:

Cutler over 250.5 passing yards (Panthers)
Newton over 244.5 passing yards (Bears)
Marques Colston over 52.5 receiving yards (Bucs)
Eddie Royal over 58.5 receiving yards (Jets)

UnitedIrishman

Fancy Brees to have a big day today. Going for over 307.5 yards passing against a poor Bucs pass defense.

Others I like:
Seattle - 7, Giants -4.5, Browns -1 and Broncos -7.

Hate going for all sides favoured by a few points and no doubt some opposition will definitely cover - more than likely the Titans.

Billy86

Popped another tenner on a tenner on a 6.6/1 treble:

Lions -5.0 vs Bills (right before Megatron was announced active), 10/11
Saints to win and over 48.5pts vs Bucs, evens
Bears/Panthers over 47.5 total points, evens.

skippymac6

Colts -2.5
Broncos -7
Bills +5
Saints -10

padraig_f

I got Bears +3 @ Panthers, and Ravens +3 @ Colts.

Had an idea to bet the Bengals -1 @ Patriots this morning and had to go out. Came back and see it's been pounded to virtually -3 now, so missed the value.