NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

UnitedIrishman

Billy86 wrote: »

Unbelievable. I made two last minute, impulsive bets.

€10 on Steven Jackson to run over 42.5 yards,
Richardson to run under 40.5 yards (tomorrow) and Jamaal Charles to run over 73.5 yards. Jackson did his end, but Charles went off injured early so lost that one. 5.1/1 odds.

€5 on Rams to win, Newton to throw over 222.5 yards and the Chiefs +12.5 with under 52.5 in the game. Broncos made a goal line stand to secure the win and that bet winning by only 7, Newton went around 290 and the Rams won on a last minute FG. 15.6/1, €83 return.

Onky noticed now that I forgot to hit the final 'submit' button on the winner! :mad:

Fecking raging, at least the comeback at the Jets helps a little. Feel a right tit about now.

Absolutely sick when that happens. At least the Pack won, if they hadn't then you'd be fit to cry!

Had two accums go down and had a saver of three anytime TD's on which landed when Nelson obliged. Was waiting on Andre Johnson for another treble and I was so close to picking Hopkins instead with Cobb and Harvin.

On the 49ers -6.5 at 5/6 in the late game. Bears will have to improve big time from last weekend whilst the 49ers are in their new home so I'm hoping they'll have a little extra in them tonight.

Billy86

Threw a bet on 49ers to win, over 48.5 at 13/10. Starting to think I should have gone over 48.5 and 49ers at -6.5 at 12/5 but the Bears receivers on the 49ers corners could cause problems.

I did remember to place the bet.

matthew8

matthew8 wrote: »

Bills to win 1.88, Jags +6 1.92, SF -7 2.0, Panthers to win 1.74 1 unit each.

Load of bottlers. Looked sure to beat the handicap and lost outright.

Loss: -.19 units.

Of the early lines I like the look of Saints -9.5 vs. Vikings and Panthers -3.5 vs. Steelers (prob just back Panthers to win though for 3rd week running).

padraig_f

Had a bad day, guess the loss of AP did make a difference to the Vikings, put Cassel into more passing situations. Blocked field goal returned for a touchdown didn't help either.

Will need the Eagles tonight, bet them money line.

JaMarcusHustle

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Went for a few small accumulators.

Lions M/L
Jags +6.0
Jets +7.5
Falcons +5.5

Arian Foster anytime
Matt Forte anytime
Justin Hunter anytime

Edelman - over 67.5
Cardinals/Giants under 42.5
Texans -3

Texans M/L
Rams/Bucs over 37.5
Lions/Panthers under 44

The one in bold came in which guaranteed a profit. So close to having the last one come in too if not for that ending in the Rams/Bucs game

SameOleJay

Saints cost me a 19/1 six-field. That was my only effort.

skippymac6

Got a split on my two handicap bets. Bengals easily covering the -5.5 but the packers letting me down on the -8.

Only other bet was an accumulator that the Saints decided to muck up with their last couple of minutes collapse to Brian Hoyer!

Seemed like a tricky week to call games to be honest though. Good few games not going the way I would have thought.

Bateman

2 record weeks in Vegas – they were drowning in cash. 7 has been the key number in 2 games – Denver -7.5 hugely supported against the Colts and win by 7, Green Bay -7.5 well backed and win by 7. Lessons to be learned chaps.

Clients of tipsters, who often oppose precisely these types of favs, will be doing well.

UnitedIrishman

Bateman wrote: »

2 record weeks in Vegas – they were drowning in cash. 7 has been the key number in 2 games – Denver -7.5 hugely supported against the Colts and win by 7, Green Bay -7.5 well backed and win by 7. Lessons to be learned chaps.

Clients of tipsters, who often oppose precisely these types of favs, will be doing well.

Yeah this week especially would have been carnage for the punters. Even fancied underdogs like the Jags got hammered and given Luck had never lost back to back ATS then those looking for a saver from last night's game would've got done too.

Bateman

The overs doesn't even seem to have been backed last night as I think the line moved downwards so money must have been taken on the unders.

skippymac6

Looking at the early lines this week nothing major stands out. Saints -9 at home to the Vikings could be one that I like. I feel the Saints will have a big bounce back match and with Peterson out again for the Vikes their offence could struggle.

Also over 45 points in the Colts vs Jags match. The Colts will have conceded at least 30 points in their first two games and they shoudl be able to score at least 25 points on the Jags D. It's a game that they need desperately and it will be on the offence to get the job done I'd imagine.

Bateman

I am doing the lines each week before checking them now. Needless to say when you're out, chances are it's you and not Vegas that is wrong but a worthwhile excercise all the same. I think Green Bay should be favs and I think the Giants (shoot me!) should be favs. I certainly didn't have the Pats giving up as many points as they are.

I am gradually getting into the mindset of liking less favs and more dogs. From looking at my past betting, this should give me more of a chance of winning.

skippymac6

Bateman wrote: »

I am doing the lines each week before checking them now. Needless to say when you're out, chances are it's you and not Vegas that is wrong but a worthwhile excercise all the same. I think Green Bay should be favs and I think the Giants (shoot me!) should be favs. I certainly didn't have the Pats giving up as many points as they are.

I am gradually getting into the mindset of liking less favs and more dogs. From looking at my past betting, this should give me more of a chance of winning.

Yeah I also do that. Had the Giants as 1 point favs and the Packers as 2 point favs. The only other one that I had as a fav that is not are the Rams at home to the Cowboys. I can see the logic of the Cowboys being favourites, but I was impressed by the Rams last week.

Everything else I had priced up was roughly within a point or two the two exceptions being the Bengals who I had as 9pt favs at home the Titans are actually only 6pt favs and the Eagles who I again had as 9pt favs at home to the Redskins that are again only being asked to give up 6pts.

Bateman

Yeah - I also thought the Eagles should have been a TD fav.

Hulk Hands

Bateman wrote: »

I am doing the lines each week before checking them now. Needless to say when you're out, chances are it's you and not Vegas that is wrong but a worthwhile excercise all the same. I think Green Bay should be favs and I think the Giants (shoot me!) should be favs. I certainly didn't have the Pats giving up as many points as they are.
.

The whole Vegas thing is overblown. Plenty of the Europeans are now getting their lines up before Vegas. Vegas these days is really only copying the moves by Pinnacle and other such firms which are basically Asians at this stage. The true pricing of games are coming moreso from Asia these days, similar to soccer, and its only a matter of time before the opinion in Vegas becomes defunct altogether. You should obviously always try price the games yourself, but don't be put off when theyre different to some bookies. For instance Bwin priced up week 2 before week 1 was played and made an absolute cock up on some games, 3-4 points out on the handicap in some cases. I endured a thoroughly frustrating couple of days trying to find a way to back them but was unable. Generally the best time to place bets is early in the week when the lines are out, and just before kickoff when the influx of mug money has had its effect

Bateman

Yeah agree with a lot of that, however there were 3 games off the boards in Vegas as of yesterday evening, and neither Pinnacle or "the Europeans" were taking any chances by listing them.

Saints-Vikings I could understand no quotes for, but the Arizona and Cinci games?

UnitedIrishman

The line I'm really liking so far is the Carolina -3. Being at home that line suggests that he Steelers and Panthers are equal but I'd have the Panthers ahead of them by at least a few points. They've a strong defence and Cam was only just back from injury last week so he should come on for that game too. The Ravens showed that if you shut down Antonio Brown you limit the Steelers through the air in a big way.

Hulk Hands

Bateman wrote: »

Yeah agree with a lot of that, however there were 3 games off the boards in Vegas as of yesterday evening, and neither Pinnacle or "the Europeans" were taking any chances by listing them.

Saints-Vikings I could understand no quotes for, but the Arizona and Cinci games?

BetV and bwin had spreads up for all 3. A few more too not listed on oddschecker

matthew8

1 unit each. Falcons -6.5 1.99, Cowboys +1 1.96, Saints -10.5 2.05, Panthers to win 1.56.

JONJO THE MISER

Atlanta -6.5 vs Tampa at 1.980 for max 5 Pts.

gerire

Have ATL -6.5 and ovr 44 @5/2 backed tonight

Copper_pipe

Took the falcons -6 earlier @ 1.90

€50

eagle eye

I took the Falcons -8.5 @ roughly 11/8. I just cannot see the Bucs Offense scoring enough to stay in it. I don't think the Falcons are that great but with the injuries on D for the Bucs I think they will do well. I can see them establishing the running game(and they are not great running the ball) and opening up the field for Ryan.

SameOleJay

Well done fellas, always nice to see the line blown out of the pond like that.

This Carolina line looks a beaut. They are clearly a better team than the Steelers imo.

Bateman

Fair play lads. Sometimes these “unpopular favourites” cash easily and it’s the more popular teams like the Pats and the Packers that let you down.

Billy86

Considering this treble at 5.16/1

- Brady passes for over 255.5 yards vs Raiders.
- Wilson passes over 232.5 yards vs Broncos.
- Newton passes over 233.5 yards vs Steelers.

All at home. Newton sailed over his projected 222.5 yards against the Lions last week with 280 - he is playing with some injuries but that is actually making him less likely to scramble and more likely to pass. I expect the Broncos to do better than in the SB and to force Wilson to keep passing into the fourth quarter which should help him get over but it's my least devouring of the three so might re iec it. Brady might hit 255 yards by accident, given how the Raiders have been playing so far.

Also Cutler is at 265 yards away to the Jets on Monday. Definitely want to see how Marshall/Jeffery are before placing that one, but they were nightmares for the 49ers last week while hobbling around, and the Jets CBs got abused by the Packers last week with Jordy Nelson have g a career high 209 yards.

UnitedIrishman

Have looked at a lot of the games over the course of the weekend but going with Colts -7; Panthers -3 and Saints -10 in singles and a straight up treble of the three (just under 2/1).

Paully D

Green Bay (+2.5), Baltimore (-2), New Orleans (-10), Philadelphia (-5.5) and Cincinnati (-6.5) are my picks today. All singles. I've also done a five-fold at slightly different spreads at over 30/1 just in case.

Good luck all.

shamrock55

Ravens
dolphins
49ers
seahawks
bengals
packers
Panthers
all to win 10euro @28/1

padraig_f

Have taken the two Ohio teams: Cincinnati -6.5 vs. Tennessee, and Cleveland +2 vs. Baltimore.

Was impressed with Cleveland last week against the Saints. The defense is excellent and frustrated Brees & co. for a lot of the game. I don't think Hoyer's anything special, but he's serviceable and has a good offensive co-ordinator in Kyle Shanahan.

They look close enough in standard to me to the Ravens, so +2 at home, I'm taking it.