NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

Paully D

Title Odds (Division and Super Bowl)




Prop Bets





Win Totals

AFC

Patriots 10.5, Dolphins 8, Jets 7, Bills 6.5
Colts 9.5, Texans 7.5, Titans 7, Jaguars 4.5
Bengals 9, Ravens 8.5, Steelers 8.5, Browns 6.5
Broncos 11, Chiefs 8, Chargers 8, Raiders 5

NFC

Eagles 9, Cowboys 8, Redskins 7.5, Giants 7.5
Saints 9.5, Panthers 8, Falcons 8, Buccaneers 7
Packers 10, Bears 8, Lions 8, Vikings 6
Seahawks 11, 49ers 10.5, Cardinals 7.5, Rams 7.5

Week 1 Lines

Chucky the tree

Terrible odds for the Seahawks.

Oat23

Anyone know what betting sites I can bet on the season win lines?

I've put €50 E/W on the Bears winning the SB at 33/1. I love what we did on defense this off-season and if it comes together early and we stay relatively healthy, it could be a good season.

SameOleJay

New Orleans might have the most balanced roster in football. They stand out a mile for me in terms of value.

In terms of worst value it's Indy and it's not even close. There are just so many holes on that roster.

Great thread mate.

helimachoptor

Paully, where are you getting those odds from?
am going to stick 5 quid on sankey for OROY

Paully D

helimachoptor wrote: »

Paully, where are you getting those odds from?
am going to stick 5 quid on sankey for OROY

They were just from some Vegas site who had them listed mate, I'm unsure of exactly where. You can get Sankey at 12/1 with Paddy Power, to be honest I never even thought they'd have had prices for that market listed until I just checked now or I would have uploaded theirs, it looks much tidier too:

Chucky the tree

9/1 for Teddy seems like great value. Jordan Matthews would be my second choice, not even listed.

kennyb3

Will have bets on Philly and New Orleans to win their divisions.

skippymac6

Going for a Green Bay sweep...

Rodgers MVP
Green Bay superbowl
Clinton-Dix defensive rookie of the year

kennyb3

skippymac6 wrote: »

Going for a Green Bay sweep...

Rodgers MVP
Green Bay superbowl
Clinton-Dix defensive rookie of the year

Packers fan?

JaMarcusHustle

Raiders under 5 for me. Brutal schedule against tough opponents and travelling more miles than anyone else in the league, and that's excluding a trip to London as a "home" game.

Also, if Bridgewater is 20/1 for Rookie Offensive Player of the Year, that's great value.

Also agree with Oatsy on the Bears being good value for the Superbowl. They're my bet too.

HigginsJ

Chucky the tree wrote: »

9/1 for Teddy seems like great value. Jordan Matthews would be my second choice, not even listed.

Yea I like 9-1 on Bridgewater. I honestly believe is he wins the starting job he is a near shoe in for OROY.

Odell Beckham could make an impact at 17/1 although he is currently missing time due to a tight hamstring which is a slight worry

skippymac6

kennyb3 wrote: »

Packers fan?

Ha perhaps.....

Although I think Rodgers is going to have to put up big numbers because of the defense this year so I do think he'll be a decent shout for MVP. Deep receiving core to throw to and that's before a decision is made on Finlay and Lyerla.

The SB pick prob a bit far fetched but Clinto Dix has a great chance I think. with teams trying to live with green bay's offence, they will be passing a bunch to catch up and all he prob needs is 4 or 5 interceptions. As you know voters can be swayed very easily by certain stats and a few INTs could mask over some bad coverage or blown assignments!

Chucky the tree

A safety hasn't won DROY since 1990 and a cornerback last won it in 2004. It's generally linebackers who win it with the odd DT thrown in.

eagle eye

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Raiders under 5 for me. Brutal schedule against tough opponents and travelling more miles than anyone else in the league, and that's excluding a trip to London as a "home" game.

Also, if Bridgewater is 20/1 for Rookie Offensive Player of the Year, that's great value.

Also agree with Oatsy on the Bears being good value for the Superbowl. They're my bet too.

HigginsJ wrote: »

Yea I like 9-1 on Bridgewater. I honestly believe is he wins the starting job he is a near shoe in for OROY.

Odell Beckham could make an impact at 17/1 although he is currently missing time due to a tight hamstring which is a slight worry

Everything points to Cassel starting the season for the Vikings so Bridgewater is a horrible bet.

Whichever QB starts and performs best will win it, no chance a player at any other position wins it unless they get close to breaking single season NFL records.

adrian522

eagle eye wrote: »

Whichever QB starts and performs best will win it, no chance a player at any other position wins it unless they get close to breaking single season NFL records.

Eddie Lacy.

Barney92

Beckham was 40/1 or so a couple of weeks ago and I was going to go for that. Then I checked again a few days later and he was down to 17/1.

Paully D

eagle eye wrote: »

Whichever QB starts and performs best will win it, no chance a player at any other position wins it unless they get close to breaking single season NFL records.

Only 7 QB's have won the award since it began in 1967. It's not that much of a shoe-in.

I personally think there's better value in the WR's this year. All of the team who drafted QB's in the first state that they intend to sit them. Manziel will start quickly if not on day one, but if the others are speaking the truth and the likes of Bridgewater and Bortles miss say 4 or 5 games before being put in when their counterparts prove to not be up to the task, that will affect the numbers they can put up.

Watkins and Evans will be go-to guys for the Bills and Buccaneers, Cooks should get some decent catches at the Saints and will rack up yards after the catch, Odell Beckham Jr. will excite on returns which will light up the eyes of the media guys who vote for this award (as Harvin can attest to in 2009) and is no slouch as a receiver either.

My shout would be Cooks. Although I'd be worried about Graham and co. taking receptions from him, he should see a lot of time on the field and has the best QB of all the main rookie WR options to get him the ball, in a pass-heavy offense. I'll be having a nibble on Odell Beckham Jr. too.

eagle eye

adrian522 wrote: »

Eddie Lacy.

I should have said the QB who starts, plays to at least an average level and is best of them.

Only Geno Smith started every game last season and he was pathetic.

Paully D wrote: »

Only 7 QB's have won the award since it began in 1967. It's not that much of a shoe-in.

I personally think there's better value in the WR's this year. All of the team who drafted QB's in the first state that they intend to sit them. Manziel will start quickly if not on day one, but if the others are speaking the truth and the likes of Bridgewater and Bortles miss say 4 or 5 games before being put in when their counterparts prove to not be up to the task, that will affect the numbers they can put up.

Watkins and Evans will be go-to guys for the Bills and Buccaneers, Cooks should get some decent catches at the Saints and will rack up yards after the catch, Odell Beckham Jr. will excite on returns which will light up the eyes of the media guys who vote for this award (as Harvin can attest to in 2009) and is no slouch as a receiver either.

My shout would be Cooks. Although I'd be worried about Graham and co. taking receptions from him, he should see a lot of time on the field and has the best QB of all rookie WR options to get him the ball, in a pass-heavy offense.

Three of the last four, four of the last six and five of the last eight have been QBs.

Paully D

eagle eye wrote: »

Three of the last four, four of the last six and five of the last eight have been QBs.

Fair point.

They did all start (apart from Young who didn't play the first half of his first game). I know you also stated that it will be a QB who starts, but Manziel could easily be the only one that starts from day one. He'll either bomb or be good, I don't think there'll be an average with him. Bridgewater and co. will be missing at least the start of the season if their teams are to be believed which, if true, will affect the numbers they can put up over the course of a season.

Obviously none of us know who will be starting, or how many games each rookie QB will play, but on the face of it I just think there's better value in the rookie WR options as there's too many question marks over who will start at the QB position.

Alfred Borden

Gonna go for Bridgewater for Offensive Rookie of the year. And Jags for playoffs/win the AFC South for an outside bet. Gonna go with the Saints for the Superbowl, that secondary is scary.

eagle eye

Raf32 wrote: »

Gonna go for Bridgewater for Offensive Rookie of the year. And Jags for playoffs/win the AFC South for an outside bet. Gonna go with the Saints for the Superbowl, that secondary is scary.

Would you not switch your bets around and go Bortles for OROY and the Vikes to make it. Its a lot more likely for the two things that you are betting on to happen that way imo not that I seen any of it happening.:D

Alfred Borden

eagle eye wrote: »

Would you not switch your bets around and go Bortles for OROY and the Vikes to make it. Its a lot more likely for the two things that you are betting on to happen that way imo not that I seen any of it happening.:D

I know its a long shot but I think the Jags will at least go 8-8 which probably will get to them to the playoffs. Soft spot for Teddy, best qb in the draft imo and definitely think he will light it up this year. At least i can delude myself for another few months yet until i see the Jags getting crushed on the first week :pac:

eagle eye

Raf32 wrote: »

I know its a long shot but I think the Jags will at least go 8-8 which probably will get to them to the playoffs. Soft spot for Teddy, best qb in the draft imo and definitely think he will light it up this year. At least i can delude myself for another few months yet until i see the Jags getting crushed on the first week :pac:

What I'm trying to point out to you is that if the Jags do go 8-8 then Bortles is almost certain to be OROY.

Its unlikely Bridgewater is going to start the season. Norv Turner has been saying how he wanted Cassel last season with the Browns and telling people how good he thinks Cassel is. So do the bets the other way around and you have a better chance of winning both, however unlikely that is.

Morrison J

Patriots, Colts, Broncos, Packers and Saints to all win their divisions.

€40 returns €518.

Looks easy money.

skippymac6

Morrison J wrote: »

Patriots, Colts, Broncos, Packers and Saints to all win their divisions.

€40 returns €518.

Looks easy money.

Patriots -- for sure
Colts -- another sure thing
Broncos -- slam dunk!
Packers -- I think this will come in but I'd be wary of the Bears. They look to have a good roster and I think that Cutler will finally have that season he's been promising for years (if he stays injury free)
Saints -- again I'd agree with you that they are the most likely winners but if the Panthers could add a decent wide receiver they could have a big say in that division.

I'd play it safe and go with all the AFC teams with Patriots, Colts, Broncos and Bengals winning their divisions. The Bengals obvioulsy being the least clear cut but Dalton needs a big year and their defence is quality. Too may question marks about the other three teams but it will be interesting if Manziel can force Hoyer out and if the Steelers D gets back to being the best in the business with the new recruits.

Hulk Hands

Ok I think I finally have enough dough on this and the price is still there

There's one of these so overpriced that it'd be justifiable to raid a trocaire box

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/regular-season/regular-season-mvp

Paully D

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Ok I think I finally have enough dough on this and the price is still there

There's one of these so overpriced that it'd be justifiable to raid a trocaire box

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/regular-season/regular-season-mvp

I found it. Joe Flacco at 100/1. I've just thrown on €100,000. :pac:

Hulk Hands

Paully D wrote: »

I found it. Joe Flacco at 100/1. I've just thrown on €100,000. :pac:

Hah i mustve missed him. Ah no its a young no.1 pick with a very apt name for gambling, and the best price is about 4 times what he should be.

I'd also hold fire on Bridgewater bets. I fully expect Cassel to be the starter although there's a small chance BW could win it in camp. If he does then you should have time to unload the clip at 20s or 16s before they react. Its not worth backing otherwise though

Guffy

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Hah i mustve missed him. Ah no its a young no.1 pick with a very apt name for gambling, and the best price is about 4 times what he should be.

I'd also hold fire on Bridgewater bets. I fully expect Cassel to be the starter although there's a small chance BW could win it in camp. If he does then you should have time to unload the clip at 20s or 16s before they react. Its not worth backing otherwise though

Wats with all the crypticness?

Hulk Hands

gufc21 wrote: »

Wats with all the crypticness?

Apologies just messing around. Have whatever you can get on Luck at 33's, 28's or 26's. Easiest schedule in the league, 3 good recievers and his main receiving TE back. 5 prime time games also. Unlikely obviously but it still should be no bigger than 10/1

padraig_f

Don't normally bet on these markets, but Cutler @ 28/1 looks tempting.

Combo of Cutler/McCown was a top 5 QB last season, and that was in Trestman's 1st year running the offense.

Chucky the tree

I wouldn't be hugely confident on the Saints or Colts to win their division. Texans should be very different prospects this year and Saints are in a very tough division.

padraig_f

I don't bet pre-season games because I just have no idea how to handicap them, but I wouldn't mind doing so. One angle here...

Why I’m Betting on the 2014 NFL Preseason

Makes a pretty good case. Don't think he means you should blindly bet overs, but to look for spots and lean that way.


Still find the pre-season games useful as prep work to try and hit week 1 running. Best value is in the early weeks of the season imo.

Guffy

Rams are 10/1 fir the division atm. I wonder would it be worth while backing them with a view to laying them in their bye week

Bateman

padraig_f wrote: »

I don't bet pre-season games because I just have no idea how to handicap them, but I wouldn't mind doing so. One angle here...

Why I’m Betting on the 2014 NFL Preseason

Makes a pretty good case. Don't think he means you should blindly bet overs, but to look for spots and lean that way.


Still find the pre-season games useful as prep work to try and hit week 1 running. Best value is in the early weeks of the season imo.

I read that when the email went out, and managed to get the early line - obviously still a loser, angle or no angle. Would be fairly confident of winning throughout the season if I was beating the closing line by 5 points though!

padraig_f

Bateman wrote: »

I read that when the email went out, and managed to get the early line - obviously still a loser, angle or no angle. Would be fairly confident of winning throughout the season if I was beating the closing line by 5 points though!

Yeah the line move indicated it was a good bet.

I'm still a bit wary of applying these trends blindly, as opposed to doing my own handicapping, because how do you know when the bookies have caught up to the trend? (which inevitably happens at some point)

I'd probably need some additional game-specific input to bet on the game.

Still useful to be aware of them in a general sense, i.e. you want a very good reason to oppose the trend, and less of a reason to go with it.


Anyone got other pre-season angles? I suspect they're more about understanding roster make-ups, and what different teams are trying to achieve in the pre-season, which isn't really my forte.

Bateman

Yeah I wouldn't back it blindly, I think in this case 32.5 was just particularly low all things considered. It also seemed to me that both teams pulled the starting QB very early in proceedings (not sure of no of minutes a starting QB would "usually" play though, so could be wrong). A few more completions leading to another FG or 2 and we're over.

Apparently the Pats are being heavily backed giving up -1.5 @ Washington.

The only overs bet in the upcoming games that I like from my own numbers is Dallas - San Diego at 36.5. It is the same as Tampa-Jacksonville for example, and IMO should be higher. But then you have to factor these unknowns, so how good a bet do you have to think it is before you back it knowing that a starting QB could be yanked 10 minutes in...

Guffy

Love how PP completely bricked it and closed all markets on pre season games once they start. barring the colts game ya can't get any market on the games tonight.

Hulk Hands

gufc21 wrote: »

Love how PP completely bricked it and closed all markets on pre season games once they start. barring the colts game ya can't get any market on the games tonight.

You mean they don't cover them inrunning? How is that bricking it? You can only cover a limited amount of stuff inrunning, and they would obviously rather cover other stuff than nfl pre season which would turn over pennies

Bateman

Yeah I'd say it's a simple case of demand (or lack of)

Guffy

Hulk Hands wrote: »

You mean they don't cover them inrunning? How is that bricking it? You can only cover a limited amount of stuff inrunning, and they would obviously rather cover other stuff than nfl pre season which would turn over pennies

Both actually. There was a couple they didn't cover pre game either. Demand? At 2 in morn?

Bateman

Powers bottle a lot of things but in all honesty, I don't think they are bottling betting on NFL pre-season games

Hulk Hands

gufc21 wrote: »

Both actually. There was a couple they didn't cover pre game either. Demand? At 2 in morn?

Inrunning games require constant trader intervention. They would probably have to bring in staff to cover games in the middle of the night that noone has interest in. I think people forget bookies are a business at times. When they pull a market etc they've obviously calculated that its not profitable leaving it up, they don't have an obligation to offer anything

padraig_f

First bet of the season...Eagles to win the NFC East @ 2.5. I'm high on the Eagles this season, and low on the Cowboys, Giants & Redskins. Really thought they'd be shorter than 2.5.

Amerika

padraig_f wrote: »

First bet of the season...Eagles to win the NFC East @ 2.5. I'm high on the Eagles this season, and low on the Cowboys, Giants & Redskins. Really thought they'd be shorter than 2.5.

Safe bet IMO. NE Patriots to take the AFC East is another.

Amerika

padraig_f wrote: »

First bet of the season...Eagles to win the NFC East @ 2.5. I'm high on the Eagles this season, and low on the Cowboys, Giants & Redskins. Really thought they'd be shorter than 2.5.

Safe bet IMO. NE Patriots to take the AFC East is another.

JaMarcusHustle

I don't think betting on an NFC East outright winner is ever a safe bet.

SameOleJay

Looks like Teddy and Bortles will sit so I'm in on Cooks at 8s for OROY.

Torn between Dez and D.Thomas for receiving yards. Both around 7. Alshon at 16s for an outside shot- he's so strong in the intermediate and long game.

Finally Pats, Saints and Eagles for their divisions. 1/3, evens and 7/5 respectively. I thinks the Saints are the real deal this year.

Thoughts welcomed.

Bateman

I think the Giants will bounce back and have a decent season, Manning will find form again and Randle is a "3rd year breakout WR" candidate. 2.5 doesn't look massive on the Eagles to me, without looking at their schedule.

Hulk Hands

SameOleJay wrote: »

Looks like Teddy and Bortles will sit so I'm in on Cooks at 8s for OROY.

Torn between Dez and D.Thomas for receiving yards. Both around 7. Alshon at 16s for an outside shot- he's so strong in the intermediate and long game.

Finally Pats, Saints and Eagles for their divisions. 1/3, evens and 7/5 respectively. I thinks the Saints are the real deal this year.

Thoughts welcomed.

Shop around would be the main one. You'll get better prices on nearly all of those elsewhere. I did take the 5/4 on the Saints for their division, had them in as 10/11 shots a few weeks back and ive seen nothing in pre season to deter