NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

Warper · 24-09-2014 3:52pm

The only bet i see this weekend is the Cowboys at home to the Saints @ 6-4. Watched the Saints last weekend and they were really poor. Romo is hit and miss but the Saints are woeful away.

skippymac6 · 24-09-2014 4:20pm

Morrison J wrote: »

Yeah definitely.

Cooks has always been the main threat. I think Jimmy Graham takes away Cooks TD numbers big time though. Benjamin being Newton's go to man in the redzone is a big advantage.
Now that Sankey is going to get an increased role with the Titans he could end up in the conversation also.

Still though, 17/1 were outrageous odds no matter what happens.

Ah don't mention the war. Backed him at 17/1 but cashed out (before the season even started) as i wanted to get a few more quid on a bet that I thought was bulletproof and didnt want to put any more cash in the account. That bet duly lost and now I'm without the Benjamin bet!

Cooks is a massive threat as you say and if somehow Bortles could inspire the Jags to even three wins, forget OROTY award, he should be getting the MVP!

:D

Whiplash85 · 24-09-2014 4:20pm

Warper wrote: »

The only bet i see this weekend is the Cowboys at home to the Saints @ 6-4. Watched the Saints last weekend and they were really poor. Romo is hit and miss but the Saints are woeful away.

Playing in a dome and not outside on grass and in the elements should suit New Orleans though. They have a pretty good defence against the run which should restrict Murray. Morris Claiborne is benched as well. Dallas's scondary is shocking. I think they are haunted to be 2-1 whereas the saints are unlucky to be 1-2. I think the spread is fair. Again Romo just mixes the sublime with the terrible. By his own admission his pre season injuries wore off during that game against the rams but he is prone to turnovers. Brees is turnover free. I think that will ultimately decide this game.

The best picks on the board this week for me are

Detroit v's Jets. Detroit are serious dark horses IMO.
Atlanta v's Minny.

And a sneaky one on KC to take down a misfiring New England in Arrowhead (straight up).

matthew8 · 24-09-2014 4:26pm

Dallas don't seem to enjoy the same home field advantage that most teams do. There'll probably be thousands of Saints in the stadium. Saints should torch Dallas's pass defense too.

skippymac6 · 24-09-2014 4:32pm

matthew8 wrote: »

Dallas don't seem to enjoy the same home field advantage that most teams do. There'll probably be thousands of Saints in the stadium. Saints should torch Dallas's pass defense too.

Yeah have to agree here. If it was on turf and maybe somewhere a bit north I'd have to say that it woudl be an issue. Fact is they're not going to far and playing in the domed confines will help them too. Wouldn't put it past Tony but think the Saints take this one before they play the hapless Buccs next week and then their bye.

padraig_f · 24-09-2014 5:11pm

Comparison of pre-season week 4 lines with today's (pre-season line in brackets, taken from SportsInsights):

TNF
Giants @ Redskins -3.5 (-1.5)

Sun 6pm
Bills @ Texans -3 (-5)
Panthers @ Ravens -3 (-1)
Lions @ Jets +1.5 (+1)
Packers @ Bears +1.5 (-1.5)
Dolphins @ Raiders +4 (+5)
Bucs @ Steelers -7.5 (-3.5)
Titans @ Colts -7.5 (-7.5)

Sun 9pm
Jags @ Chargers -13 (-10)
Falcons @ Vikings +3 (+1)
Eagles @ 49ers -5.5 (-6)

SNF
Saints @ Cowboys +3 (+0)

MNF
Patriots @ Chiefs +3.5 (-1)

Ones that jump out at me there....maybe Colts as an under-reaction. Chiefs with the 4.5 point move, and Eagles as possibly an underreaction to the 49ers' woes.

matthew8 · 24-09-2014 5:54pm

Amazing to me is the Saints-Cowboys one. Cowboys have hardly impressed but expectations were really low to begin with, while the Saints have been anything but impressive.

skippymac6 · 25-09-2014 9:21am

Should be an interesting game this evening. Both teams desperate for a win and the loser (even this early) could be struggling for the rest of the year. Both teams have shown glimpses of ability so far. The Giants probably should have beaten the Cardinals in week 2 but for some woeful turnovers and special teams play. The Redskins hung tight against both the Eagles and the Texans and led by at least a TD in both. Watching Eli play the last two weeks, on bare numbers he hasn't exactly lit it up, but he has made consistently good throws and has been let down by routes and drops by his receivers. The big thing though is that the Giants offensive line is their weakness and with Hatcher, Orakpo and Kerrigan pressurising them, I think they'll have success. Giants have been running it well but the Redskins give up less than 70 yards on the ground and haven't given up a rushing TD yet this season. Redskins rank 2nd in the NFL in offence and 4th in Defence where the Giants stats in those categories are 25th and 22nd. I know that stats can be misleading and the Skins have played (apart from the Eagles) two weak offences but thats still pretty decent. I think Redskins -3.5 all things considered.

SameOleJay · 25-09-2014 9:42am

Any thoughts on the Bears Packers line?

Seems a very strange shift to me, I would have thought feeling on Green Bay would have been substantially more positive in pre-season.

Bateman · 25-09-2014 9:50am

I don't think the Giants are as bad as some have been saying. Eli in particular has suffered from receivers dropping passes when they’re on the money. I certainly don’t think Washington should be favoured by any more than a FG and probably less. I also think Chicago should be favs v the Packers.

skippymac6 · 25-09-2014 10:16am

Bateman wrote: »

I don't think the Giants are as bad as some have been saying. Eli in particular has suffered from receivers dropping passes when they’re on the money. I certainly don’t think Washington should be favoured by any more than a FG and probably less. I also think Chicago should be favs v the Packers.

Yeah I agree. I watched the last two Giants games with Eli playing very well. I think they have a good chance but the standard 3 point play applies which makes the Skins -3. I am going to back the -3.5 and then hedge with the Skins to win by exactly 3 points.

Thought the Bears would be favs myself as I stated before but with Bulaga back that's a massive plus for the Packers. If Matthews is able to play then I'd be leaning to back the Packers just on the money line. They usually play well against the Bears but I will be leaving this one alone until just before kick off where I hope it becomes more of a scratch game.

padraig_f · 25-09-2014 1:58pm

Took the Chiefs +3.5, actually haven't seen that much of them, but think I've seen enough of the Patriots to like the +3.5 at Arrowhead.

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tom-brady-sacked-3rd-quarter-621-oakland.gif?w=1000

Billy86 · 25-09-2014 1:59pm

No chance in hell I would bet much on the Giants/Redskins match, NFC East games are a nightmare to predict, and matches between those two teams are probably worst of the lot for it.

Bears/Packers is another tough one to call since form goes out the window with those two a good bit also. Packers have the corners to at least limit Marshall/Jeffery/Holmes but safety play might be an issue (Clinton Dix is looking promising covering, but needs to work a lot on his to tackling; Burnett is in the process of playing himself out of a starting role), and ILB is a disaster position. Getting a pass rush will be vital, but Matthews and Peppers are carrying knocks.

On the other side, the Packers line have struggled terribly, but Chicago are nowhere near the quality of the Jets, Seahawks or Lions in their defensive line, and Bulaga should be in better condition again. The Bears have also picked up an extraordinary number of injuries in the last two weeks which Rodgers, Nelson and co might be able to pick apart if he can get enough time in the pocket.

It's another one I would avoid unless there is movement in the over/under lune (currently at 50.0 points).

kryogen · 25-09-2014 2:11pm

I am sorely tempted to go in on the Chiefs straight up never mind getting points, the O line has been absolutely brutal, if that doesn't get better fast it is going to be another long night and the Chiefs are not an inept team like the Raiders.

Billy86 · 25-09-2014 2:13pm

A lot depends on who is fit for the Chiefs and who is not, I reckon.

JaMarcusHustle · 25-09-2014 9:18pm

Think I'll go with the Giants +3 tonight. One of those games where it has to be the team getting points.

matthew8 · 25-09-2014 9:42pm

Panthers +3.5 is appealing. That handicap supposes the Ravens are a better team in general, which doesn't look like the case to me. Monroe could be a big loss to the Ravens offense. Panthers +3.5 1 unit 1.87.

eagle eye · 25-09-2014 10:18pm

Neither team can defend and they can both score big against bad D's so I've got on an alternative points total, over 49.5. I'm projecting over 55 points in this one.

padraig_f · 25-09-2014 10:19pm

Watched Redskins-Eagles, the Redskins outplayed them despite losing the game. Has put me off betting the Eagles against the 49ers. Their offensive-line looks too much of a worry....couldn't run the ball & Foles had very little time.

Kirk Cousins looks competent, had a couple of nice throws...

desean-jackson-touchdown-and-celebration-against-philly.gif?w=1000

desean-jackson-touchdown-and-celebration-against-philly.gif?w=1000

Hulk Hands · 25-09-2014 11:52pm

Was going to leave it tonight unless the spread dropped to a solid -3, which it finally did about an hour ago. This opened at -6, so there looks to be value with the Redskins. Spread looks to rise again before kickoff to -3.5 now the pros are getting their fill.

jester1980 · 26-09-2014 1:42pm

Got burnt on that last night, didnt see that result coming

SameOleJay · 26-09-2014 1:44pm

The NFC East. Every single season I tell myself to stay away.

And I can’t.

skippymac6 · 26-09-2014 1:48pm

SameOleJay wrote: »

The NFC East. Every single season I tell myself to stay away.

And I can’t.

Ha same as. Nightmare!

Billy86 · 26-09-2014 2:05pm

SameOleJay wrote: »

The NFC East. Every single season I tell myself to stay away.

And I can’t.

As much as I said a few posts back to a old it like the plague, I knew I would be watching it so got reeled in. It's such a crap shoot I just looked for the winner/over-under double with the longest odds and took Giants to win over 53.5 points total at 6/1. Paid off too!

I also put a covering fiver on the Redskins to win right after the Eli ran in a touchdown to make it 31-14 with about 6 minutes left in the third quarter. Then Cousins went on the biggest 20 minute run of interceptions of possibly the last 20+ years.

So all in all, tenner on, 35 back, can't complain!

skippymac6 · 26-09-2014 2:17pm

Billy86 wrote: »

As much as I said a few posts back to a old it like the plague, I knew I would be watching it so got reeled in. It's such a crap shoot I just looked for the winner/over-under double with the longest odds and took Giants to win over 53.5 points total at 6/1. Paid off too!

I also put a covering fiver on the Redskins to win right after the Eli ran in a touchdown to make it 31-14 with about 6 minutes left in the third quarter. Then Cousins went on the biggest 20 minute run of interceptions of possibly the last 20+ years.

So all in all, tenner on, 35 back, can't complain!

Happy out. If only it was always that simple/effective!

Billy86 · 26-09-2014 2:30pm

skippymac6 wrote: »

Happy out. If only it was always that simple/effective!

I think it's my new rule of thumb for NFC east games, because it really is just rolling a dicen and hoping for the best.

Kind of like Ravens/Steelers games, most years with them I just take the handicap on the underdog if there is more than 2.5 points on the line. Typically go for the under if it's near the mid 40s with them though, at least with those games you know if will typically be quite low scoring.

kryogen · 26-09-2014 8:03pm

SameOleJay wrote: »

The NFC East. Every single season I tell myself to stay away.

And I can’t.

The only thing I normally bet on in those games is points, last night was no exception

kryogen · 28-09-2014 7:08am

Have three bets this week

Big bet is the double

Then two hopeful ones, super yankee

and a heinz I did a couple of days ago

SameOleJay · 28-09-2014 10:32am

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 20m
Barring a surprising improvement, #Titans QB Jake Locker (wrist) won’t play today vs. #Colts, I’m told. Plan is to see Charlie Whitehurst

For anyone unfamiliar with the Clipboard Jesus here's Grantland's piece on him this week.

Jake Locker is very questionable to suit up for this game with a wrist injury, which would open the door for Charlie Whitehurst to start at quarterback for Tennessee. Just for a moment, let’s go back and run through Whitehurst’s career:

• Whitehurst grows to 6-foot-5.

• He spends four years at Clemson, during which he fails to complete 60 percent of his passes (ending at 59.7 percent) and throws nearly as many interceptions (46) as touchdowns (49). The Tigers go 30-19 during his time in school.

• The Chargers draft Whitehurst in the third round of the 2006 NFL draft.

• Whitehurst spends four years as the third-string quarterback in San Diego behind Philip Rivers and Billy Volek. He does not attempt a regular-season pass. His only experience comes during the 2006-09 preseasons, during which Whitehurst goes 104-of-197 (52.8 percent) for 1,031 yards (5.2 yards per attempt) with five touchdowns and seven interceptions.8

• Seattle’s new brain trust of Pete Carroll and John Schneider targets Whitehurst in a trade, getting their man by sending San Diego a future third-round pick and swapping Seattle’s second-round pick (40th) for San Diego’s (60th) in the 2010 draft.9 They also immediately give Whitehurst a two-year, $8 million contract extension.

• Whitehurst enters into a quarterback competition with 35-year-old incumbent Matt Hasselbeck.

• Whitehurst loses that quarterback competition.

• Whitehurst plays in nine regular-season games over two seasons with Seattle, starting four, most notably the division-clinching win over St. Louis in the fail-in game on Sunday Night Football in Week 17 of the 2010 season. He is benched in his last start after seven pass attempts for an already-injured Tarvaris Jackson. Over the two-year span, Whitehurst goes 84-of-155 (54.2 percent) for 805 yards (a terrifying 5.2 yards per attempt) while throwing three touchdowns and four picks.

• Returning to unrestricted free agency, Whitehurst signs a two-year, $3.05 million deal with the Chargers, including a $1 million signing bonus.

• Now 30 years old, Whitehurst spends 2012 and 2013 as the backup to Philip Rivers without throwing a regular-season pass. He takes 12 snaps during his stint with the Chargers, producing six handoffs and six kneel-downs for a total of minus-5 yards.

• Chargers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt takes over as Tennessee’s head coach and brings Whitehurst along for the ride, giving the now 32-year-old a two-year, $4.3 million deal with $2 million guaranteed.

There are virtually no reasons to think that Whitehurst has any aptitude as an NFL quarterback. He wasn’t especially good in college. He didn’t impress anybody against third-stringers in the preseason. He was downright awful during the brief time he had as a starter, and that came and went nearly three years ago. The most obvious reason Whitehurst has continued to be employed as an NFL quarterback is that he was previously employed as an NFL quarterback.

For that résumé, Whitehurst has earned in excess of $15 million during his time in the NFL, with more than $1 million to come in 2015. Whitehurst is the definition of a replacement-level quarterback; in a totally free market, I suspect you could have offered him $35,000 a year (with serious playing-time incentives) to do the same job and he would have happily taken it.

This may sound like I’m jealous of Whitehurst or bitter about his success. I’m only jealous of his hair. In general, I’m wildly happy for Whitehurst, who is apparently an incredible hustler and a really nice guy, because you don’t get cushy backup quarterback jobs if you’re a dick. Whitehurst has lived in some of America’s most beautiful cities and collected millions of dollars almost exclusively to practice and serve as a de facto coach. God bless Charlie Whitehurst.

I was taking Colts -7 anyway but it's still there so I'm a max bet now. Fingers crossed.

JaMarcusHustle · 28-09-2014 10:45am

Buffalo Bills (+3) @ Houston Texans
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) - Currently at +3 but I'll buy the extra .5. Will probably be 3.5 before kickoff.
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - as above
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (+3) - happy to take this at +3, but could go as high as +4 by kickoff
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Take the extra .5 for comfort

My bets for the day.

padraig_f · 28-09-2014 1:37pm

Didn't see a whole lot of value this week, a lot of the lines seemed pretty close.

I'm on:

Bears +1.5 vs. Packers (go Bears!)

Falcons @ Vikings - under 46.5
- Didn't think Bridgewater looked ready last week, seemed like his reads were muddy, but he does seem quite cautious with the football. Also think the Vikings defense is decent. Expect the Falcons to get ahead, and run the ball a lot.

Also did accumulator of: Falcons -3 and Under 46.5.

Small accumulator for some leans: Bills +3, Jets +1.5, Bears +1.5

MNF: Chiefs +3.5 vs. Patriots.

matthew8 · 28-09-2014 2:41pm

Colts -7.5 1.99 1 unit.

Paully D · 28-09-2014 3:12pm

I like Atlanta, San Diego, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and New Orleans against the spread. Singles and a small 5-fold.

Billy86 · 28-09-2014 4:02pm

Two tenner bets:

Steelers -7.5 vs Bucs, Colts -7.5 vs Titans, Chargers to score 30 or more vs Jags (29 points will give a push)... all home teams, fraction over 6/1 odds.

Rodgers to pass 256 or more passing yards @ Bears, Kelvin Benjamin to get 72 or more receiving yards @ Ravens at 2.3/1 odds. Definitely getting on the Benjamin hype train, thought he might take most of the season to acclimatise but that's definitely not looking the case!

Hulk Hands · 28-09-2014 4:14pm

Strongly feel the Vikings are on the right side tonight. They were decent against the Saints until a bad call spin the game completely. This line was +1.5 last week, yet I expect to get +4.5 before kickoff. Had a small parlay on Vikings +4 and under 47.5 at nearly 3/1 with Pinnacle. I like Asiata over 40.5 rushing with Ladbrokes in that game. Elsewhere ive taken the 49erw ht eagles ft at 9/1 given the respective teams performances in each half thus far. Also on the Jets to win Q3 as they usually choose to kick from the off. If the line goes to 2.5 later in the Saints game, which it looks like, ill be on them also

Billy86 · 28-09-2014 4:39pm

Also realised I have a €2 free bet lying around in my Paddy Power account, so went for a bit of a stupid accumulator to keep track of stats.

Cam Newton 238+ yards passing
Leveon Bell 83+ rushing
Megatron 94+ receiving
Jordy Nelson 81+ receiving
Reggie White 63+ receiving
Annual Boldon 61+ receiving

Probably just throwing the freezer away, but if it comes off I get a €76 return.

eagle eye · 28-09-2014 4:39pm

Trebles and accum. on Dolphins -4, Steelers -7, Lions +1.5 and Texans -2.5.

I've taken an alternate line and bet big on the Chicago Bears, took -4 @ 2/1. I think they are underrated defensively and they have a lot going for them offensively right now.

Hulk Hands · 28-09-2014 4:54pm

One more, Houston -2.5 now its gone 10/11. Hard to think the Bills are a full point better than Houston. Take out the NY game and this line is -4.5

kev_s88 · 28-09-2014 5:54pm

Colts (-7.5) @ 21/20
Packers vs Bears Over 51.5 pts @20/21
Panthers vs Ravens under 42 @ 10/11
Bills to beat Texans @ 7/5
Lions to beat Jets @ 5/6
Raiders (+3.5) @ 5/6
Bucs vs Steelers over 45 @ 20/23

Accumulator giving total odds of just over 100/1. Wouldnt say no to that

Oat23 · 28-09-2014 5:58pm

Jumped on DeAngelo over 51 yards rushing after Stewart was ruled inactive and now he is hurt after picking up 34 early.

Lovely.

kryogen · 28-09-2014 8:21pm

****ing delighted with the Steelers/Bucs game! You give up that many penalties and fail to cover the spread for me then I hope you lose every time! None of this winning the game but failing to cover

Get in there!

Billy86 · 28-09-2014 10:37pm

Billy86 wrote: »

Two tenner bets:

Steelers -7.5 vs Bucs, Colts -7.5 vs Titans, Chargers to score 30 or more vs Jags (29 points will give a push)... all home teams, fraction over 6/1 odds.

Rodgers to pass 256 or more passing yards @ Bears, Kelvin Benjamin to get 72 or more receiving yards @ Ravens at 2.3/1 odds. Definitely getting on the Benjamin hype train, thought he might take most of the season to acclimatise but that's definitely not looking the case!

Fecking Steelers cost me 70 beans on a 6/1 bet! Delighted they lost, hare when one team costs you an accumulator and still wins. :pac:

Won on Rodgers/Benjamin (barely, Benjamin caught a 14 yarded with 8 seconds left in the game) and put the winnings on Keenan Allen 65.5+ yards and Roddy White 62.5+ yards (€qw each, 5/6 odds each). Allen is way over at 109yds currently but Roddy White has been stuck on 44 yards for ages after a fast start to the game and has dropped about 50 yards worth of catches.

Was considering Boldon 61.5+ yards instead of him, he's currently on 50...

EDIT: Just FOUR more yards needed from Roddy now going into the fourth! Falcons have the lead now though and he only has 3 catches off 11 targets so I'm not holding my breath, those drops are going to kill me!

jj1 · 29-09-2014 4:14am

Tampa Bay owe a lot of us a few quid. How dare they win Pittsburgh after getting hockeyed last week.

They bust my treble & it was a straight bet, no handicap.

JaMarcusHustle · 29-09-2014 7:21am

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Buffalo Bills (+3) @ Houston Texans
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) - Currently at +3 but I'll buy the extra .5. Will probably be 3.5 before kickoff.
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - as above
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (+3) - happy to take this at +3, but could go as high as +4 by kickoff
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Take the extra .5 for comfort

My bets for the day.

Bills and Panthers let me down, but the Bucs, Vikings and Packers did the jobs. On the Chiefs tonight so a 2 point victory for the Pats and I'll be happy

kryogen · 29-09-2014 8:19am

Getting my game day bout of optimism, but I have the Chiefs backed already so gonna leave it go for now

skippymac6 · 29-09-2014 8:38am

Stuck with the Packers and like you Billy86 I took Rodgers over 251.5 yards. Thought it would be 280 with the state of the Bears secondary. Colts -7 and Texans -3 also came in but was badly burnt on the Steelers (like most it seems) in my treble along with the Ravens and Colts that I couldnt see losing!

Also had the Jets to beat the Lions which didnt come good and just had the unders in the Atlanta game which never came close to coming in! All in all about a break even weekend. Still think the Pats get the job done tonight and I'll take them on the spread tonight. It's -3 at evens at the minute but with a lot of people getting on the Chiefs, I'm going to hold off until later and see if that maybe drops to -2 or -2.5.

kryogen · 29-09-2014 9:52am

I think the line may shift to closer to 3.5 later on, so if you do intend to bet on them personally I would do it now, there will be an awful lot of money put down on the Pats (like always) over the course of the day

Hulk Hands · 29-09-2014 11:38am

If anything the line will drop over the next few hours. Anyone waiting on -2.5 Patriots will get it id say, at 5/6 probably. What happens in the couple of hours before kick off is anyone's guess, may go back up

skippymac6 · 29-09-2014 11:46am

At the worst I think it will be 5/6 for -3. Paddypower, Bet365 and Boyles have it all at evens at the minute. Coral have it at 5/6 for -2.5 right now too.

Think I'll take a chance and leave it for a few hours and see which way it goes. As I said, the worst thing I see happening is having to shop around for -3 at 5/6.

Hulk Hands · 29-09-2014 1:03pm

Yep -2.5 fairly freely available there now. I'm tempted but am loath to lay points in one I think may be low scoring. Ill hold off in the hope of seeing 4/5 pats to win the match outright, I think that's a bet

NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

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