NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

kryogen

Super Heinz



Mid level single



Pretty large single

kryogen

Oh sweet jesus, just seeing them like that I see I made a boo boo with the Super Heinz including the Steelers as the pick instead of the Panthers....any chance bet365 would allow me to alter that?

kryogen

Credit where it is due, fair play to the lds at bet365, they voided the bet without any hassle and I was able to make another one

Bateman

Fancied the Packers but they seem to be struggling to find their groove. The Pats are starting to click but I still have a feeling they won't be covering today.

matthew8

Shameless after timing. 21-0 down when placed.

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

Credit where it is due, fair play to the lds at bet365, they voided the bet without any hassle and I was able to make another one

Clean sweep in the earlys so it becomes interesting now

skippymac6

kryogen wrote: »

Clean sweep in the earlys so it becomes interesting now

And Murphy's law the Panthers let you down!

Much better from a betting perspective this week. Few lucky games like the Ravens and the Cowboys went my way late on unlike previous weeks.

Was badly burnt on the overs in the GB vs Det game and shockingly went with the Dolphins against the Chiefs but not too bad other than that!

I think I will keep betting against the Vikings until they cover a spread. They only lost by 11 when the spread was -10 but they just look like a club in all sorts of trouble. This also applies to the Jags. Colts -6 yesterday was never in doubt and it might take Bortles a few games to settle in. The Vikings play the Falcons next week and the Jags are away at the Chargers

Bateman

skippymac6 wrote: »

the Jags are away at the Chargers

That could be an absolute horrorshow. I predict Chargers -16.5

skippymac6

Bateman wrote: »

That could be an absolute horrorshow. I predict Chargers -16.5

I had it down as -14 and I just checked Bet365 and they have it at -13.5. I think that will move to -14.5 before Sunday and the bookies will try and make you win only if SD win by more than two clear Touchdowns.

Those big spreads are always dangerous. Look at yesterday when the Patriots were -14 against the Hapless Raiders and last week were the Broncos were -13.5 at home to the Chiefs. Unless a team is blown out of the water early they generally hang around and cover that big spread, even if it's just getting a few late points in garbage time.

kryogen

One game left in the super heinz, typically of course if I hadn't spotted the error with the Steelers bet I would be sitting pretty right now with 5 out of 6 wins and 1 to go leaving me in with a shout of nice profit, as it is I have covered the stake and can come out of it pretty well if the bet comes in later, disgusted with the Panthers game though simply because I put the Steelers in by mistake at first and was allowed to change the bet, damn bet365 and their being obliging!

Bateman

skippymac6 wrote: »

I had it down as -14 and I just checked Bet365 and they have it at -13.5. I think that will move to -14.5 before Sunday and the bookies will try and make you win only if SD win by more than two clear Touchdowns.

Those big spreads are always dangerous. Look at yesterday when the Patriots were -14 against the Hapless Raiders and last week were the Broncos were -13.5 at home to the Chiefs. Unless a team is blown out of the water early they generally hang around and cover that big spread, even if it's just getting a few late points in garbage time.

Yeah agreed, add the Saints yesterday as well, that number moved around a fair bit but most favourite backers wouldn't have been on the right side of 11.

If you listed the largest 4 or 5 spreads pf the year so far, favs must have failed to cover in all of them? At least these 3: Denver (v Kansas), New England (v Oakland), New Orleans (v Minnesota).

skippymac6

Bateman wrote: »

Yeah agreed, add the Saints yesterday as well, that number moved around a fair bit but most favourite backers wouldn't have been on the right side of 11.

If you listed the largest 4 or 5 spreads pf the year so far, favs must have failed to cover in all of them? At least these 3: Denver (v Kansas), New England (v Oakland), New Orleans (v Minnesota).

In week one the Eagles were -10.5 at home to the Jags which was lucky to come in after the Jags raced to a 17-0 lead. In week 2 the only double digit spread was the Broncos who failed to cover -13.5 against the Broncos. Then yesterday the two that were double digits were New Orleans -10 and Patriots -14. The Saints one could have risen to -11 on some websites, I am just going on Bet365.

The problem with the big spreads is if a team is up by 10-14 points late in the second half they take their foot off the gas. When they get the ball they generally try to run the clock down as opposed to scoring again as they would in College Football. Even in that Jags game, they were only down by 10 before Henne was strip sacked when trying to get a last minute drive going and it was returned for a TD and the line came in. If it was just recovered by the Defence, the offense would have just taken a few knees or tried to get a first down to close out the game and killed the bet.

matthew8

matthew8 wrote: »

1 unit each. Falcons -6.5 1.99, Cowboys +1 1.96, Saints -10.5 2.05, Panthers to win 1.56.

+1.8 now. Early lines for next week, the Chiefs (+4, I think they should be -3) stick out for me, maybe the Steelers -8 too. Might have a bet on the Chargers -13.5 against the worst team in the league but it's a tough handicap to cover.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

+1.8 now. Early lines for next week, the Chiefs (+4, I think they should be -3) stick out for me, maybe the Steelers -8 too. Might have a bet on the Chargers -13.5 against the worst team in the league but it's a tough handicap to cover.

You think the Chiefs should be favourites against the Patriots??

Yes the Pats haven't been great but if you offered me Pats +3 I'd re-mortgage the house to get as much on that as I could! :cool::cool:

matthew8

skippymac6 wrote: »

You think the Chiefs should be favourites against the Patriots??

Yes the Pats haven't been great but if you offered me Pats +3 I'd re-mortgage the house to get as much on that as I could! :cool::cool:

Patriots were a shambles yesterday is the impression I get from the Patriots thread, as well as the final score. They lost to Miami too while Chiefs beat them with some room to spare. Chiefs also looked OK in defeat to Denver as well so probably back on track. Home field advantage a big deal too. New England won only 1 more game than the Chiefs last year too so it's not like there was a gulf to begin with.

Billy86

Early lines that caught my eye...

Dolphins -4 @ Oakland
Jags/Chargers over 44.5 (@SD)
... OR San Diego alone over 30pts
Falcons -3 @ Minnesota
Saints -3 @ Dallas

That said, I'm sticking closer to the over/under yards given for yards passing/receiving. Much easier to predict than the scores to far, in my opinion.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

Patriots were a shambles yesterday is the impression I get from the Patriots thread, as well as the final score. They lost to Miami too while Chiefs beat them with some room to spare. Chiefs also looked OK in defeat to Denver as well so probably back on track. Home field advantage a big deal too. New England won only 1 more game than the Chiefs last year too so it's not like there was a gulf to begin with.

I'm not saying that the Chiefs won't win or that the Patriots will destroy them, I'm only saying that giving the patriots a three point start against a 1-2 team, when they themselves are 2-1 is crazy. The Patriots feast on teams like the Chiefs too.

The Pats didn't look great by any means but they would have won much easier if they didn't drop a few easy TD passes. That said the Raiders would have tied up the game if it wasn't for the penalty for holding on their late score.

Even if the Chiefs won 29-0 this week against the Patriots and say they were to play later on in the year in Arrowhead, I'd still have the Patriots as the favourites due to their roster plain and simple. You are putting far too much stock into their last games. Sure if you're going back to week 1 the Chiefs lost at home to the Titans by 16 points in their first game! The Titans have been beaten by a combined 42 points the last two games!

From your posts you seem to like rugby. Would you have Connacht as favourites to beat Leinster this week if they played in Galway again? I don't think so. You might have the line at perhaps a point or two shorter than it was but you go with the better team. Same case this week with the Patriots

matthew8

What are "teams like the Chiefs"? From reading your post you seem to have this idea the Chiefs are some sort of bad team, which they're clearly not. Did you miss all of last season?

Billy86

The one issue with the Chiefs is that they have a lot of important injuries (or did last week at least, many returned?). But they are a pretty good team and we'll coached; fully fit, their defence is a force.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

What are "teams like the Chiefs"? From reading your post you seem to have this idea the Chiefs are some sort of bad team, which they're clearly not. Did you miss all of last season?

Middle of the road teams that aren't quite up to the top standard. They'd be a bit better than the likes of the Texans or Bills but not as good as say the Chargers. I'd rank them on par with someone like the Jets. I watched all of last season. They got out to a great start, were like 9-0 or something and then they blew up losing most of their games against decent teams down the stretch including the massive lead they threw away against the Colts in the playoffs. Last year they were lucky to not get big injuries and this year they haven't been so lucky.

Listen I like the chiefs. I thought they'd struggle when Charles went down but they haven't and Alex Smith is playing great. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are fantastic players on Defence and so is Eric Berry. If they have Berry and Charles back this week then they have certainly got a shot, I'm not disputing that. The only point I'm trying to make is that you're not looking at the wider picture. Just because the form line looks good in favour of the Chiefs in a line through Miami doesn't mean the Chiefs should be favourites, even though they are at home. You can't completely overreact about a line just because one team was great and the other was less than stellar the previous week.

matthew8

I'm not just looking at one week either. Chiefs did well against Denver too and look like they're back on track. The Patriots on the other hand have looked poor in 2 of 3 games. Even in their good game the offense really misfired and doesn't look like it'll do well against the good Chiefs defense. The Patriots barely even look like a playoff team so far this year, they have looked more like a middle of the road team recently than the Chiefs.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

I'm not just looking at one week either. Chiefs did well against Denver too and look like they're back on track. The Patriots on the other hand have looked poor in 2 of 3 games. Even in their good game the offense really misfired and doesn't look like it'll do well against the good Chiefs defense. The Patriots barely even look like a playoff team so far this year, they have looked more like a middle of the road team recently than the Chiefs.

Ah here now pal. It's three games into the year. So have the Packers, Saints and 49rs looked less than brilliant so would you have the Chiefs as -3 against all of those teams if they played in Arrowhead Stadium? No you couldn't. The Patriots were brutal in the second half against the Dolphins and against the Raiders, I'm not disputing that. I'm just trying to point out the flaw in your arguement. The Chiefs are 1-2, the Pats are 2-1. The Chiefs have lost big players to injury, the Pats have most (Wilfork, Mayo, Gronk -- not 100% still etc) back. The Patriots have been brilliant under Bellicheck the last 10 years, won 10 of the last 12 AFC East titles, the Chiefs won 2 games in 2013 and 7 in 2012. They started 9-0 last season and finished 11-5. They have effectively lost 9 of their last 12 games. They aren't as good as the Patriots. Again I'm not saying the Patriots are going to cover the -4 easily I'm just saying that everything points to the Patriots being favourites this weekend!

Billy86

I think the Pats match is just one to avoid, full stop. On one hand I do see the points being made about the Chiefs and they are a well coached team with decent and improving depth (and some serious stars, too) but they also have injuries, some of which are vital. The Patriots on re other hand have stuttered bit early and at times I cannot stand them as a club, but they are also one of the last teams I would bet against.

matthew8

It makes a lot more sense to look at the Chiefs and Patriots recent form rather than going back years. The Reid era has made the Chiefs look like a different team. They faded down the stretch last year but really just looked like a team satisfied with the wild card spot and prepping for the playoffs. They hardly embarrassed themselves either and were very unlucky not to win a playoff game. It's not easy to win away to Miami either. Look at handicaps in previous games: The Patriots were 3 point favourites away to Miami but are 4 point favourites away to the Chiefs. This supposes that either the Patriots are better than we thought before week 1 (you'd be hard pressed to find someone who believes that) or Miami are better than Kansas City (which also looks very untrue, both going into week 1 with Miami an 8-8 team, and with yesterday's result).

padraig_f

The Chiefs are probably the right side, but there's no way the line is off by 7 points. If it was, sharps/syndicates would be all over it, and they'd have changed it by now.

I think the Chiefs had a very easy schedule last year and weren't quite as good as their record showed.

Having said that, the two results surprised me yesterday. I expected the Dolphins to beat the Chiefs at home, and the Patriots to beat the Raiders more comfortably. Might have a look at those games during the week.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

It makes a lot more sense to look at the Chiefs and Patriots recent form rather than going back years. The Reid era has made the Chiefs look like a different team. They faded down the stretch last year but really just looked like a team satisfied with the wild card spot and prepping for the playoffs. They hardly embarrassed themselves either and were very unlucky not to win a playoff game. It's not easy to win away to Miami either. Look at handicaps in previous games: The Patriots were 3 point favourites away to Miami but are 4 point favourites away to the Chiefs. This supposes that either the Patriots are better than we thought before week 1 (you'd be hard pressed to find someone who believes that) or Miami are better than Kansas City (which also looks very untrue, both going into week 1 with Miami an 8-8 team, and with yesterday's result).

Ok listen I made my arguement and you made yours. I just wouldn't have the Patriots as anything less than 3 point favourites for the reasons I stated above. The Patriots are the better roster, better coached and have the better record this year and in previous years. Again I keep saying that I think the Chiefs are good, I just don't think they should be favourites. It's a very tricky game to call at that -4 though and I'd probably be swerving it. Agree to disagree pal and we'll stop spamming this thread for everyone!

shamrock55

Any ideas on tonight match, i cant decide it seems a tough enough game to call, was thinking of doing jets win@ 5/6 or jets over 2.5 td @ 4/5?? Or maybe mashall anytime td @5/6

shamrock55

shamrock55 wrote: »

Any ideas on tonight match, i cant decide it seems a tough enough game to call, was thinking of doing jets win@ 5/6 or jets over 2.5 td @ 4/5?? Or maybe mashall anytime td @5/6

I think the bears are good value to be honest.

kryogen

Happy enough with how the weekend went overall I suppose, almost doubled my stake with the Super Heinz, shame about the Steelers but a positive weekend none the less. Some of the lines for next week are looking interesting.

matthew8

1 unit on each: Chiefs to win 2.66, Steelers -7 1.95, Chargers -13.5 1.95.