FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

derekon · 04-01-2018 8:35am

derekon wrote: »

I fully expect the whole thing to go belly up , already the cold is being watered down with a wee tweak here and there, ref comments on Netweather

Been here too many times with respect to possible snow in Ireland - whatever can go wrong will go wrong due to the VERY marginal nature of snow in Ireland

Expect downgrades later today

D

As predicted, the upcoming cold spell with a possibility of snow has been watered down to a few cool days with night frosts. No chance of snow in the coming week for Ireland.

Key lessons for newbies:

1. Trust no charts beyond 4-5 days
2. Look at the wider picture, no cold to tap into in Europe at the moment
3. You really need to see the three main models buy into cold. GFS just wasn't buying it.

If you follow the above in terms of snow hunting in Ireland you won't go far wrong!

D

Rebelbrowser · 04-01-2018 8:37am

derekon wrote: »

As predicted, the upcoming cold spell with a possibility of snow has been watered down to a few cool days with night frosts. No chance of snow in the coming week for Ireland.

Key lessons for newbies:

1. Trust no charts beyond 4-5 days
2. Look at the wider picture, no cold to tap into in Europe at the moment
3. You really need to see the three main models buy into cold. GFS just wasn't buying it.

If you follow the above in terms of snow hunting in Ireland you won't go far wrong!

D

Yup, the overnight 0z models are even worse for coldies I am afraid. This weekend gets a touch milder again and the easterly no longer happens except for a very watered down affair for a day on the ecm.

George Sunsnow · 04-01-2018 11:29am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This thread is for the weekend. As specified next week is full of uncertainty.

Post in the 120 + thread for that.

I love your threads Kermit but unless that Scandinavia high moves north,a sw near Iceland disappears,there is NO uncertainty that we are NOT entering a cold spell
More like a return to Atlantic weather after a brief lull

George Sunsnow · 04-01-2018 5:24pm

The UKMO 12Z. 120 High sinking towards Russia
UKMO 144 southerlies and southwesterlies

I won’t sicken ye with the charts but it has the US energy barreling towards us

Once that’s gone the default route so soon as opposed to what we thought (or I thought) we were looking forward to in the output just a few days ago which had several days of the rare undercut route
Once it does that, it’s curtains
Couple of weeks of this I fear is odds on being our climate,and another heart of winter wasted

Storm 10 · 04-01-2018 5:31pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The UKMO 12Z. 120 High sinking towards Russia
UKMO 144 southerlies and southwesterlies

I won’t sicken ye with the charts but it has the US energy barreling towards us

Once that’s gone the default route so soon as opposed to what we thought (or I thought) we were looking forward to in the output just a few days ago which had several days of the rare undercut route
Once it does that, it’s curtains
Couple of weeks of this I fear is odds on being our climate,and another heart of winter wasted

What are you saying here are we going to get more storms or what.

nagdefy · 04-01-2018 5:39pm

Times like this i just want to say hit the middle ground.

Nothing is as good (2 days ago) or as bad (today) as it seems. Give it 5-7 days and we'll still only be around 10th January and we may have different signals.

Just because most other winters with current trends went belly up for cold and snow doesn't necessarily mean this one will.

The weather will do it's own thing. Just 4th January. Probably we're all feeling a bit the after Christmas come down too.

BLIZZARD7 · 04-01-2018 5:45pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The UKMO 12Z. 120 High sinking towards Russia
UKMO 144 southerlies and southwesterlies

I won’t sicken ye with the charts but it has the US energy barreling towards us

Once that’s gone the default route so soon as opposed to what we thought (or I thought) we were looking forward to in the output just a few days ago which had several days of the rare undercut route
Once it does that, it’s curtains
Couple of weeks of this I fear is odds on being our climate,and another heart of winter wasted

That's a pretty well split vortex, Heights to our north and could easily develop into a very good outcome for us down the line. I agree we had taken steps back but the 12z's are an improvement going forward in my eyes. As long as the Azores High doesn't push into europe our cold options are still on the table.

Okay so we don't have the bitter snowy easterly that the ECM and GEM had been showing just yet but this is far far away from a bad NH profile if you like colder weather.

nacho libre · 04-01-2018 6:07pm

The forecast senor Pangea linked to last night looks to be a good call. The Atlantic might not fully break down the block as quickly as some models suggest, but will eventually due to events across the Altantic. If you like cold and crisp days and frosty nights then you will enjoy this weekend, at least.

nacho libre · 04-01-2018 6:26pm

PokeHerKing wrote: »

To think some people don't blows my mind!

Well i suppose if we all thought the same life would be boring, but that said people who prefer mild and cloudy weather over crisp winter days need their heads examined:p You won't find many weather picture forums with shots of mild and dreary days!

George Sunsnow · 04-01-2018 7:27pm

I hate the words downgrade or upgrade
It’s very unmetorological to describe charts that merely correct themselves as downgrades or upgrades
It’s language that started over on the UK fora

Anyway here’s tonight’s ECM 120
Just 5 days away,the short lived hp is blasted out of it and we are back to southerlies,southwesterlies and a conveyer belt of Atlantic lows

MJohnston · 04-01-2018 8:09pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I hate the words downgrade or upgrade
It’s very unmetorological to describe charts that merely correct themselves as downgrades or upgrades
It’s language that started over on the UK fora

Anyway here’s tonight’s ECM 120
Just 5 days away,the short lived hp is blasted out of it and we are back to southerlies,southwesterlies and a conveyer belt of Atlantic lows

Back to Atlantic lows? Have we really had that many this season other than this week?

George Sunsnow · 04-01-2018 8:18pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Back to Atlantic lows? Have we really had that many this season other than this week?

Well I’d hate to count the number I’ve seen in my lifetime versus snow storms :O
So yeah

nacho libre · 04-01-2018 10:04pm

The block is still steady enough to ensure the Atlantic does not plough through all the way to the contininent, but there is just too much energy coming out towards Greenland to stop it from going under the block and producing a snowy nirvana for us. This is why tears are being shed tonight in Arklow:(

If that monster low over the states had taken a different track we might have had waa heading up into Greenland. That may have led to a Greenland High.

It does seem to be the case that if north america is very warm at this time of year we have a much better chance of seeing colder weather here. I recall back in December 2010 it was unusually warm in Alaska at that time. Also a friend of mine over in Alberta had very warm weather at the same time. I think there is something in this, as anytime we get noticeably cold weather, she seems to have quite warm weather by their standards

Captain Snow · 04-01-2018 10:11pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The block is still steady enough to ensure the Atlantic does not plough through all the way to the contininent, but there is just too much energy coming out towards Greenland to stop it from going under the block and producing a snowy nirvana for us. This is why tears are being shed tonight in Arklow:(

If that monster low over the states had taken a different track we might have had waa heading up into Greenland. That may have led to a Greenland High.

It does seem to be the case that if north america is very warm at this time of year we have a much better chance of seeing colder weather here. I recall back in December 2010 it was unusually warm in Alaska at that time. Also a friend of mine over in Alberta had very warm weather at the same time. I think there is something in this, as anytime we get noticeably cold weather, she seems to have quite warm weather by their standards

Very True. Every time in Calgary when it gets warm in Winter, Ireland/UK gets colder weather.

Donegal Storm · 04-01-2018 11:11pm

I don't get all the sudden negativity here, other than one or two ECMWF runs that showed cold eventually reaching us in over a weeks time the charts never looked interesting in the first place. Even the 'best' runs from the past couple of days showed a brief cool easterly at the weekend before high pressure built and lasted all week. There was no cold pool forecast over Europe so it took a good 8-9 days for any real cold to reach us

nagdefy · 04-01-2018 11:26pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

I don't get all the sudden negativity here, other than one or two ECMWF runs that showed cold eventually reaching us in over a weeks time the charts never looked interesting in the first place. Even the 'best' runs from the past couple of days showed a brief cool easterly at the weekend before high pressure built and lasted all week. There was no cold pool forecast over Europe so it took a good 8-9 days for any real cold to reach us

It could be all for the best.. Let Europe cool down and the second half of January might prove better than a meek semblance of an easterly.

Billcarson · 04-01-2018 11:43pm

nagdefy wrote: »

It could be all for the best.. Let Europe cool down and the second half of January might prove better than a meek semblance of an easterly.

Can't remember the last time Ireland had a decent cold spell during the second half of a January though. Don't think I've seen much if any lying snow for example during that part of Jan since the 80s.

Elmer Blooker · 06-01-2018 8:02pm

At +240 what could possibly go wrong?

ECM1-240.GIF?06-0

George Sunsnow · 06-01-2018 8:11pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

At +240 what could possibly go wrong?

Queues at the car wash due to eastern Saharan dust?

Kermit.de.frog · 06-01-2018 9:27pm

Siberian air prepping to move down in to the continent at 120 hrs. Get a cold pool in place to tap in the event of an easterly.

Fun times ahead.

Gonzo · 07-01-2018 1:08am

these charts are showing alot of work is needed before we are even ready for snow to hit our eastern coastline, we still have a 6 week window for something decent, lets hope it happens!.

Kermit.de.frog · 07-01-2018 5:05am

It's getting closer

Kermit.de.frog · 07-01-2018 7:35am

rbelmc · 07-01-2018 4:04pm

both Danish and Swedish weather services are going for a decent period of high pressure weather with signs it may get colder towards the end of this week.The temps forecast are not cold though-just around freezing or a little bit below so we may have to wait a bit longer for any Siberian cold to come our way
www.smhi.se
www.dmi.dk

BLIZZARD7 · 07-01-2018 8:03pm

At +192hrs ECM we are very close to a very cold and snowy scenario, the slider lows back on the menu it seems. This time with a robust high to our north east though. With some luck we could be looking at an improved version of the early December event. Any correction South West from this and we're in business.

UKMO is very similar to the ECM up to +144hrs, if not better. GFS not as good looking east but has improved hugely in the +120 to +144 hrs timeframe from what it was showing just a day or two ago. The block is putting up a fight, if and it's a big IF the jet dives South east then we might be in luck this time. I am however taking the models with a big pinch of salt til we have cross model agreement at +96-120hrs as they have all performed quite badly recently in my opinion, with the exception of the UKMO.

George Sunsnow · 07-01-2018 9:40pm

Bad performances from the models seems to be par for the course in recent years if they are in any way taxed with complications
It would make you wonder about science and computing
We’re extra sensitive to it here because we know a tweak here or a tweak there does to the feed of air and consequently whether we’re mild or cold

That high hopefully will cool down Europe,the colder it gets,the more surface continental cold feeds come into play rather than 850 temps if you get even a South easterly feed but you’d prefer an easterly
You’ll see it in the rh,the negative dew points,the thickness’s
In short a continental feed in the right circumstances can do what an Atlantic feed can never do and that is deliver a feed of air that’s zero or below completely from cloud base to ground
In some of the 80’s easterlys we had washing on the line freezing in the day time with a wind off the sea
That’s what you get when your surface air feed is also blowing off a totally snow covered Britain and coming via Denmark and the Baltic
I don’t see my favored northeasterly with that high about south scandy
But I don’t see any uninteresting model watching either but will it pay off?
Now there’s the question

Rebelbrowser · 08-01-2018 6:37pm

Em,, er, the Cork snowshield is down? (of course 20cm of snow is nothing down here....)

gfs-16-300.png?12

JCX BXC · 08-01-2018 6:41pm

Snow shield pfft

No more snow shield than the vast majority of southern Ireland!

patneve2 · 09-01-2018 2:41am

The GFS ensembles are actually decent enough. Possibility of a strong polar maritime flow in the long term

Rebelbrowser · 09-01-2018 11:34am

I know Atlantic based snow is not highly regarded in these parts but the GFS continues to suggest we've got plenty of it coming on several different days next week. Tomorrow week is the pick of the bunch - see below...

:):)

average_runner · 09-01-2018 12:39pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I know Atlantic based snow is not highly regarded in these parts but the GFS continues to suggest we've got plenty of it coming on several different days next week. Tomorrow week is the pick of the bunch - see below...

:):)

When ever it comes from the West, it rarely reaches us in Dublin. Hope ye get a load though.

giveitholly · 09-01-2018 12:43pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I know Atlantic based snow is not highly regarded in these parts but the GFS continues to suggest we've got plenty of it coming on several different days next week. Tomorrow week is the pick of the bunch - see below...

:):)

That'll do

munsterlegend · 09-01-2018 1:12pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I know Atlantic based snow is not highly regarded in these parts but the GFS continues to suggest we've got plenty of it coming on several different days next week. Tomorrow week is the pick of the bunch - see below...

:):)

Hopefully the experts can throw light on it but unfortunately usually the air gets modified by the Atlantic and only high ground benefits from any snow.

Rebelbrowser · 09-01-2018 1:18pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Hopefully the experts can throw light on it but unfortunately usually the air gets modified by the Atlantic and only high ground benefits from any snow.

Agreed but the Atlantic does cool down to some extent throughout the winter so I think a westerly sourced cold feed has at least a better chance of making it here as snow in late January than earlier in the winter. Perhaps the record cold in the U.S. is of assistance in that regard in terms of cooling the gulf stream?

Gonzo · 09-01-2018 1:29pm

average_runner wrote: »

When ever it comes from the West, it rarely reaches us in Dublin. Hope ye get a load though.

I think it will be the usual story for greater Dublin region. The cold spells so far this winter were mild enough that the precipitation made it all the way across, however several factors including a wind off the Irish sea at one stage turned the snow to cold rain over Leinster. If this cold spell is colder then the December spells, then the shower precipitation will have a much tougher time making it past the river Shannon unless an organised band of precipitation is involved. That chart is showing a mostly dry east, also much of eastern UK is dry too. This is a great chart for those along the west, north-west, Northern Ireland and perhaps Cavan/Monaghan.

Now back to the FI Charts...

George Sunsnow · 09-01-2018 1:52pm

Nothing inspiring on the 17th
First attachment is the ecm for that day
I’d have said maybe Ulster based on that

3rd is gfs for 1pm 17th RAIN

2nd is gfs the following day- looks like a slush fest inland away from Munster to me-Ulster says yes maybe

All deep FI from nwps that can’t decide 96hrs properly at the moment
So it’s a NO from me

squarecircles · 09-01-2018 1:58pm

average_runner wrote: »

When ever it comes from the West, it rarely reaches us in Dublin. Hope ye get a load though.

Ohh, exciting,looks good for the west,hope this time the snow sticks around for a while longer.

Shedbebreezy · 09-01-2018 3:20pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I know Atlantic based snow is not highly regarded in these parts but the GFS continues to suggest we've got plenty of it coming on several different days next week. Tomorrow week is the pick of the bunch - see below...

:):)

I got 1 foot of snow from a South Westerly, 3 years ago I think, Snow showers just streamed all day, the air was of Canadian Arctic origin. Also the timid NW earlier in December me 5 days of lying snow in Donegal. We can do well out of them, nothing beats a straight northerly for us from a greenie high but if you have snow lying, falling and its not melting you couldn't give a ___ what direction its coming from.

nacho libre · 09-01-2018 9:36pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

munsterlegend wrote: »

Hopefully the experts can throw light on it but unfortunately usually the air gets modified by the Atlantic and only high ground benefits from any snow.

Agreed but the Atlantic does cool down to some extent throughout the winter so I think a westerly sourced cold feed has at least a better chance of making it here as snow in late January than earlier in the winter. Perhaps the record cold in the U.S. is of assistance in that regard in terms of cooling the gulf stream?

Yes these two factors combined increase the chances of snow in the optimum period for snow, which are January and February, in Ireland. It might not be to some peoples liking, but i think a bit of netweather imbyism is perhaps creeping into some posts because the models are not showing a convective shower train for the east. The charts as depicted by the GFS won't lead to ice days with a foot of snow in the east, but, even allowing for the fact they do tend to over egg the the 850 temps and dam thickness, quite a few places might see snow and it may accumulate on lower ground.

Neddyusa · 09-01-2018 11:07pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes these two factors combined increase the chances of snow in the optimum period for snow, which are January and February, in Ireland It might not be to some peoples liking, but i think a bit of netweather imbyism is perhaps creeping into some posts because the models are not showing a convective shower train for the east. The charts as depicted by the GFS won't lead to ice days with a foot of snow in the east, but, even allowing for the fact they do tend to over egg the the 850 temps and dam thickness, quite a few places might see snow and it may accumulate on lower ground.

"netweather imbyism is perhaps creeping into some posts because the models are not showing a convective shower train for the east"

Yes Nacho, and ironically some of that imbyism coming from posters prone to regularly ridiculing the imbyism and "toys-out-of-the-pram" posts of Netweather

What Rebel browser posted above is no less valid in this thread than the potential cold easterly talk of last week, so no need to poo-poo it.
The thread title is FI afterall

Meteorite58 · 10-01-2018 12:49am

Yes a wintry outlook from around Sun/ Mon with a cold airmass coming out of Greenland which looks to be around much of the week. 850hPa temps dont look tremendously cold at this stage but cold enough for wintry precipitation I think with the greatest chance of snow especially from next midweek perhaps unless this goes belly up.Would imagine plenty of showers of hail and possible thunder around the coasts too at times. Winds look fresh through the week especially on coasts only leading to a windchill factor I would presume making it feel very cold. Will be interesting watching this unfold and become clearer nearer the time.

Looking windy Sunday before winds change to a W / NW direction sourced from Canada/ Greenland.

Strong jet next week which seems to be keeping to the S of Ireland keeping High pressure to the S and letting the colder airmass N of it develop.

Gaoth Laidir · 10-01-2018 1:04am

At just 1800 km, Belmullet is closer to Greenland than it is to Vienna, but that's still a lot of track across an ocean that's still up to 11 °C between here and there.

nacho libre · 10-01-2018 1:55am

One crucial difference this time is we have an usually cold westerly airflow source, and the more unstable it is the less time for modification. Bear in mind we also have got heavy snow from the west in recent years from a less cold airflow. Provided the models don't back track, i think in the early days of next week we have a good chance of seeing some snow.

Rebelbrowser · 10-01-2018 10:20am

nacho libre wrote: »

One crucial difference this time is we have an usually cold westerly airflow source, and the more unstable it is the less time for modification. Bear in mind we also have got heavy snow from the west in recent years from a less cold airflow. Provided the models don't back track, i think in the early days of next week we have a good chance of seeing some snow.

Dumb question but I always keep meaning to ask - what does "unstable" mean in that context and what is the significance of instability? thanks in advance anyone......

DOCARCH · 10-01-2018 10:24am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Dumb question but I always keep meaning to ask - what does "unstable" mean in that context and what is the significance of instability? thanks in advance anyone......

Showers....basically. The more unstable, the bigger/heftier the showers.

Rebelbrowser · 10-01-2018 10:36am

Lots of pink for next week still on the GFS but these GFS precipitation charts verify for accumulating snow in Ireland about 5% of the time I'd say. Pick of the bunch below.

Meanwhile there is good model correlation n the actual set up next week. ECM and GFS for next Wednesday below...

and

typhoony · 10-01-2018 12:41pm

I remember back in the 80's we used to regularily get cold NWesterlies, next week looks like a throw back to one of those setups, Showers driving into the west and NW with hail sleet snow even thunder in an unstable airflow. anywhere from north galway should get some heavy prolonged snow showers, usually the showers don't push any further west than the north midlands.

beefburrito · 10-01-2018 1:30pm

typhoony wrote: »

I remember back in the 80's we used to regularily get cold NWesterlies, next week looks like a throw back to one of those setups, Showers driving into the west and NW with hail sleet snow even thunder in an unstable airflow. anywhere from north galway should get some heavy prolonged snow showers, usually the showers don't push any further west than the north midlands.

You're on the ball there.
I remember frequent weather like this until around 1997 ish.
Winter's were always a mixed bag,but from St Stephens day until around March frost,flat calm and offshore winds and glassy ocean conditions were more common than the dirty mild muck we're used to now.

This winter aint too bád,I remember endless calm frosty weather.

Great conditions for Fishing for flounder's in the estuaries, they loved the cold calm weather.

Whiting,coalies and Cod loved those times too.

I wonder do fish migrate according to the weather conditions.

BLIZZARD7 · 10-01-2018 5:04pm

GFS and ECM differ quite a bit when you look at the ensembles though, Gefs offering far more potential for sliding lows/snow events with the Jet digging deep south east into Europe.

GEFS 06z, Quite amplified- Intermittent snow possible.

ECM 00z Ensemble mean, less amplified, flatter pattern.

EDM1-168.GIF?10-12

The Ski resorts in the Alps will continue to get dumped on if the GEFS is closer to reality.

BLIZZARD7 · 10-01-2018 5:08pm

Strat warming now starting to appear consistently on the GFS also -

gfsnh-10-324.png?6

FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST