FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

sryanbruen

Very interesting chart from the GFS 12z at +336 hrs.

Meteorite58

Yes , that would certainly contain a lot of wintry/ snowy weather perhaps over the holidays if it were to come of. A few more runs eh.

Rebelbrowser

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Yes , that would certainly contain a lot of wintry/ snowy weather perhaps over the holidays if it were to come of. A few more runs eh.

Gone on the pub run.... high pressure from next Sunday all the way to 29 Dec.

Meteorite58

Gone on the pub run.... high pressure from next Sunday all the way to 29 Dec.

Yea saw that, such is the folly of looking too far into FI ( but we will have another look in the morning )

Captain Snow

Ill just leave these here to fuel your imagination. Todays 6z.

gerrybhoy

Captain Snow wrote: »

Ill just leave these here to fuel your imagination. Todays 6z.

For dummy's what does that mean

Captain Snow

gerrybhoy wrote: »

For dummy's what does that mean

Possible mother load of snow from the east with gale force winds.....:D

nagdefy

As per usual, and as expected, the deep FI GFS changes. Here we have a hint of a Scandi high build. No great pressure heights in Greenland so it fights the Atlantic.



Really, as we all often say, after a week to 10 days, we don't know what will happen. It would be a bold forecaster who would forecast anything wintry for Christmas Day itself, 11 days away.

Captain Snow

Lots of cold building to our east. The holiday period looks interesting now.
Constant theme building with the models.

sryanbruen

nagdefy wrote: »

As per usual, and as expected, the deep FI GFS changes. Here we have a hint of a Scandi high build. No great pressure heights in Greenland so it fights the Atlantic.



Really, as we all often say, after a week to 10 days, we don't know what will happen. It would be a bold forecaster who would forecast anything wintry for Christmas Day itself, 11 days away.

Did the GFS have an early outbreak of intoxication today?

Rebelbrowser

sryanbruen wrote: »

Did the GFS have an early outbreak of intoxication today?

this has been a recurring theme on about 2/3s of their runs over the last 5 days. Promising....

sryanbruen

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

this has been a recurring theme on about 2/3s of their runs over the last 5 days. Promising....

There's a massive split in the GEFS for the first time in a few weeks though, so there's an awful lot of uncertainty regarding later next week onwards.

Captain Snow

Slightly more amplified....were is this run going..



Cold is deeper into Europe and further west.

dexter647

^^^^
Up to Greenland ta fcuk hopefully:D

Captain Snow

Nightmare of a run.....:rolleyes:

pauldry

The charts are hinting at uncertainty after Wednesday so ther will be a lot of chopping and changing. Saw the chart like the one above at the GEM 240hrs. Windy Southwesterlies 11c probably if that came off.

Some charts are showing a cooler turn for 12hrs or so on Xmas eve. As ever it will be interesting what the models make of this and how the FI model interprets it after Xmas. We could see some very cold runs in FI for end of December.

BLIZZARD7

This morning's ECM run is not without interest, some nice heights building over the pole - while we do have a mild period coming up the models are hinting that this may not last too long as we move deeper into the festive period.

The situation remains unusual and disorganised with no proper dominant PV forming - the NH pattern is still primed and ripe for cold outbreaks into the mid latitudes. I still think we will see something colder setting in between roughly Christmas and the new year, the models are slowly starting to smell the coffee with this one and should start to show some more interesting charts in the next few days...

ECM Day 10 -

Meteorite58

Models pointing at windier weather around/ or just after Christmas. The ECM showing the first windy episode around the 26th, the GEM and the GFS holding it off a bit for another day or so at this stage. The JMA showing it windy from around the 26th. The GEFS showing a stormy week developing around the 27th or so ?.

sdanseo

Christmas eve on the 12Z

This would do.

Lumi

Mod note

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Off topic posts/chat/bickering have been deleted

Thanks

Captain Snow

Seasonal for Christmas day.....:) That's about all we can hope for at this stage.

Gaoth Laidir

I see the tabloids are at it now with warnings of Storm Dylan around Christmas.

Of course, there is no basis to it.

Meteorite58

The ECM has been showing a windy spell around the 26th , 27th now for a few days. The latest run showing a large slow moving area of LP well off to our W / NW under the influence of a very vigorous Jet producing strong winds over Ireland.

Cant post any more maps for the moment as the computer is on the go slow!

JCX BXC

Could be quite mild in that setup too.

Floki

As Meteorite posted above the models have been showing a deepening area or areas of low pressure crossing the Atlantic in the timeline just after Christmas day. There's a few days in the difference between them with the GFS being the latest after the big day.
With the WARM air coming up over us this coming week and the COLD conditions of Canada and a cool air plunge into the Atlantic which the difference drives a strong Jetstream I'd say the ingredients are there for a storm. I don't think it'll be if but when.

Floki

GFS's attempt at a storm.



Even looking at GFS's charts it's not beyond the realms of possibility of a storm occurring on the 27th.

Rebelbrowser

May your days be merry and bright, and may all your..

Meteorite58

Yes the GFS is painting a lively picture from Christmas to the New year on the present runs.

Meteorite58

ECM 850 hPa charts


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=eu&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2017121712&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

pauldry

Charts certainly veering on the colder side now. But maybe not cold enough for snow. As usual its a borderline issue. The wind element after Xmas has been pretty consistent so id be surprised if there is not some storm. Id also be surprised if Xmas Day is mild at all from what we are seeing on the GFS and ECM.

At best for coldies it might be 3c, at worst 10 or 11c.

When we get to the 5 day range it will become more clear.

Im thinking by the looks of charts that there will be showers of rain and hail on Xmas day with some showers of hail whitening borders in the North n West and temperatures of 6 to 8c.

I also think some ice may be possible Christmas night and even Christmas eve too.

Charts could show a turn towards lows moving further North and milder but Ive a feeling this Winter is one of the colder ones