Winter 2017-18: Discussion

snowstorm445 · 04-01-2018 12:22pm

There’s an air of certainty now every time easterlies begin to show up on the models that they will always fail. It’s not as if there’s a complete absence of them from modeling, they appear very frequently and as with recently they appear consistently over several days, but with one model usually insisting that they won’t happen, and after prolonged disagreement between them the doubting one has always got it right.

The sad thing is it isn’t just a case of the models simply not forecasting it or it being dropped after maybe one outlandish run, it teases for ages before finally back peddling. But the outcome is always the same.

Thank god for cold zonality and sliders, there would be very little snow in Ireland otherwise. The odds of an easterly verifying are increasingly becoming tiny in these consistently and almost entirely Atlantic driven winters have taken hold since 2010.

sryanbruen · 04-01-2018 12:46pm

Teleconnection data for December 2017:

AO: -0.059 (Very slightly negative, very weak blocking over the Arctic)
NAO: 0.73 (Positive, rather strong Azores High and weak block up to the north)
QBO: -18.12 (Easterly, the zonal winds were very weak)
PDO: -0.18 (Very slightly negative)

Overall, a very mixed bag of a month for the indexes. Unfortunately, we can't put December 2017 among the other very negative AO months I've listed here before even though there was quite some promise at the beginning of the month for a period of very negative AO.

In spite of the otherwise mediocre data besides the QBO, this is the best December synoptic we've seen since 2010:

sryanbruen · 04-01-2018 12:58pm

kod87 wrote: »

I believe we could deal with the boston weather if we were used to it, you said "thank god we don't have to''. I wish we did have to.

Well, I guess it comes down to why you find weather interesting. My interest in weather over the last 20 years revolves around extremes. The mundanity does not interest me, I do not care if the average temp for a month is 0.1C higher or lower than normal or trivial things like this.

What interests me is thunderstorms, blizzards, extreme heat, extreme cold.I guess I'm not really interested in weather in a pure sense or technical sense.

I suppose it just excites me to see the world burn ( or freeze )

Again, I said to look at the death figures from weather in other countries compared to ours.

Many people in said countries would long for our weather any day, same with lack of natural disasters such as earthquakes or volcanoes.

Why I find Ireland's weather interesting is exactly what igCorcaigh said, how changeable our climate is. I say that I want blue skies and 20c for days on end but eventually it would get boring.

It's nice to go on holidays to countries like Spain for their weather but to have that for my whole lifetime, no thank you, especially the kind of temperatures they get in Summer during heatwaves such as 2003 or 2015.

As for the point back to Boston and maximums of -15c or less, that would be unbearable to me. The lowest the Republic of Ireland has had since recording began in terms of maximums is -9.8c which was recorded at Loreto College in Cavan on December 21st, 2010. My lowest maximum here was around -5c and that being the lowest I'm completely fine with especially how it's such a rare occasion than every Winter like in North America.

You can have your preferences obviously just like myself, but just trying to say that many people would long for our non-extreme climate in foreign countries and the fact that the death figures due to weather in said countries is higher compared to Ireland (that's not just down to the fact that Ireland has a smaller population). I hear people in southeastern England for example whom hate the hot Summers they get and would love it how cool we get often.

I don't think there's anywhere on the planet with a perfect climate, people in Canada probably look on in envy at our mild snowless
winters.

No there isn't but then again what is a perfect climate exactly? Everybody has their preferences, different health issues etc.

You're correct, some of my family are from Canada and they much prefer Ireland's climate to theirs.

kod87 · 04-01-2018 1:10pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Again, I said to look at the death figures from weather in other countries compared to ours.

Many people in said countries would long for our weather any day, same with lack of natural disasters such as earthquakes or volcanoes.

Why I find Ireland's weather interesting is exactly what igCorcaigh said, how changeable our climate is. I say that I want blue skies and 20c for days on end but eventually it would get boring.

It's nice to go on holidays to countries like Spain for their weather but to have that for my whole lifetime, no thank you, especially the kind of temperatures they get in Summer during heatwaves such as 2003 or 2015.

As for the point back to Boston and maximums of -15c or less, that would be unbearable to me. The lowest the Republic of Ireland has had since recording began in terms of maximums is -9.8c which was recorded at Loreto College in Cavan on December 21st, 2010. My lowest maximum here was around -5c and that being the lowest I'm completely fine with especially how it's such a rare occasion than every Winter like in North America.

You can have your preferences obviously just like myself, but just trying to say that many people would long for our non-extreme climate in foreign countries and the fact that the death figures due to weather in said countries is higher compared to Ireland (that's not just down to the fact that Ireland has a smaller population). I hear people in southeastern England for example whom hate the hot Summers they get and would love it how cool we get often.

No there isn't but then again what is a perfect climate exactly? Everybody has their preferences, different health issues etc.

You're correct, some of my family are from Canada and they much prefer Ireland's climate to theirs.

I never said or suggested that, and I have no idea how death figures are relevant to any of this.

Yes, we have changeable weather but it's within such a narrow variance of temperature that makes it very uninteresting. North america gets the ideal weather IMO, generally hot summers with the odd thunderstorm and frigid cold winters with lots of snow. That's changeable and changeable within a huge variance of temperature, that's what makes it interesting. Unfortunately we don't have that temp range, and it result in very boring weather

Anyway, as you said, we just find different aspects of the weather interesting

sryanbruen · 04-01-2018 1:14pm

kod87 wrote: »

I never said or suggested that, and I have no idea how death figures are relevant to any of this.

Yes, we have changeable weather but it's within such a narrow variance of temperature that makes it very uninteresting. North america gets the ideal weather IMO, generally hot summers with the odd thunderstorm and frigid cold winters with lots of snow. That's changeable and changeable within a huge variance of temperature, that's what makes it interesting.

Death figures are relevant because it shows how extreme of an impact the weather can have on ones life (a huge reason why I have an interest in the subject), I did say death figures specifically to weather, not in general.

I didn't say you suggested that, I said it myself.

Years ago, I didn't appreciate Ireland's climate but I've grown and matured myself to do so. However, it's always very difficult with frequent pessimism being thrown at me.

Look, we have our opinions, preferences and health issues. Leave it at that.

MJohnston · 04-01-2018 1:22pm

This discussion seems almost driven by the idea that we could somehow change the climate of Ireland if only there was enough support for the idea! I think that's what is so frustrating about constant weather whingers, there's nothing we can do about it

JCX BXC · 04-01-2018 1:26pm

I've heard many consider the canary islands to have the perfect climate. To be honest, it's hard to disagree.

Warm all year round, but if you want bit of cool you can go up mount teide, which receives frost and even snowfall!

Most of the islands are very dry, but you can head to North Tenerife if you miss the green and want a bit of moisture.

There's always somewhere windy and always somewhere calm. The question is where these spots are on a given day.

Can't see how one wouldn't like this climate!

sryanbruen · 04-01-2018 1:30pm

Back to the Winter..... the CFSv2 is still predicting a disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex into February. Take it with a pinch of salt obviously but if it were to come off, not looking good for Spring 2018 if you want warm weather.

As you saw from my 2018 predictions, I'm predicting an awful Spring regardless of this:

March - Cold and rather dull but dry.
April - Cool, wet and rather sunny.
May - Dull, cool and dry. Similar to May 1991 but not nearly as dry.

I think this Winter is kind of a teaser of what we should expect come Winters in the next few years following solar minimum.

George Sunsnow · 04-01-2018 3:46pm

Meanwhile Florida’s capital is getting snow
Their first since 1989

http://www.fox35orlando.com/news/local-news/snow-in-florida-flakes-fly-in-tallahassee

Oneiric 3 · 04-01-2018 3:56pm

kod87 wrote: »

Yes, we have changeable weather but it's within such a narrow variance of temperature that makes it very uninteresting.

I would argue that the 'changeability of the weather in itself is also set within a very narrow confine in this country. Each day might bring something different, but no less mundane than the day before, or the day after.

squarecircles · 04-01-2018 5:39pm

No complaints,I love a good storm.

PokeHerKing · 04-01-2018 6:16pm

nacho libre wrote:

If you like cold and crisp days and frosty nights then you will enjoy this weekend, at least.

To think some people don't blows my mind!

nacho libre · 04-01-2018 6:19pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Back to the Winter..... the CFSv2 is still predicting a disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex into February. Take it with a pinch of salt obviously but if it were to come off, not looking good for Spring 2018 if you want warm weather.

As you saw from my 2018 predictions, I'm predicting an awful Spring regardless of this:

I think this Winter is kind of a teaser of what we should expect come Winters in the next few years following solar minimum.

Chino, the resident strat' expert over on netweather, suggested a possible ssw in early February.

I must admit a lot of the technical jargon regarding atmospheric drivers, and how they can have a bearing on our weather, goes over my head. For instance what do GLAM and MJO really mean?
As far as i can make out even if these, what they call teleconnections signals, are favourable,trying to make a forecast based on them for a specific location is very difficult.

Clonmel1000 · 04-01-2018 7:09pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

I've heard many consider the canary islands to have the perfect climate. To be honest, it's hard to disagree.

Warm all year round, but if you want bit of cool you can go up mount teide, which receives frost and even snowfall!

Most of the islands are very dry, but you can head to North Tenerife if you miss the green and want a bit of moisture.

There's always somewhere windy and always somewhere calm. The question is where these spots are on a given day.

Can't see how one wouldn't like this climate!

And having just returned from Tenerife I can wholeheartedly agree with this.

fraxinus1 · 04-01-2018 7:15pm

I love cold and frosty so looking forward to this weekend. But the complete downgrade of next weeks forecast is very disappointing. Combined with a dreary January, a month which I never liked, makes this month a long dreary one. It’s miserable.

nagdefy · 04-01-2018 7:20pm

Everything is relative.

I presume none of us are on a hospital trolley..that's misery. I presume we all have a roof over our heads.

Don't have expectations with regards the weather and you won't be disappointed.. quite the opposite, any event out of the norm, if you like extremes, is a bonus.

'The mind is its own place and in itself, can make a Heaven of Hell, a Hell of Heaven.' John Milton.

giveitholly · 04-01-2018 7:24pm

nagdefy wrote: »

Everything is relative.

I presume none of us are on a hospital trolley..that's misery. I presume we all have a roof over our heads.

Don't have expectations with regards the weather and you won't be disappointed.. quite the opposite, any event out of the norm, if you like extremes, is a bonus.

'The mind is its own place and in itself, can make a Heaven of Hell, a Hell of Heaven.' John Milton.

+1

Birdnuts · 04-01-2018 9:50pm

If your into an "exciting" climate, Japan appears to tick most of the boxes. Heat,Thunderstorms,Typhoons, Blizzards etc. all to be had most years.

Charles Babbage · 04-01-2018 10:01pm

Birdnuts wrote: »

If your into an "exciting" climate, Japan appears to tick most of the boxes. Heat,Thunderstorms,Typhoons, Blizzards etc. all to be had most years.

and an earthquake or two, with Tsunami to follow, to shake things up.

engol · 04-01-2018 10:14pm

Charles Babbage wrote: »

and an earthquake or two, with Tsunami to follow, to shake things up.

Yeah. Lovely! :eek:

sryanbruen · 04-01-2018 10:54pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Chino, the resident strat' expert over on netweather, suggested a possible ssw in early February.

I must admit a lot of the technical jargon regarding atmospheric drivers, and how they can have a bearing on our weather, goes over my head. For instance what do GLAM and MJO really mean?
As far as i can make out even if these, what they call teleconnections signals, are favourable,trying to make a forecast based on them for a specific location is very difficult.

That would be around the same time as last year's failed SSW and we all know how disappointing that turned out, daytime temperatures around 3 or 4c with drizzle and minimums just above or around freezing.

I've never heard of the GLAM and I have little to no knowledge regarding the MJO besides the fact that it stands for Madden Julian Oscillation.

These teleconnections are indexes made to show how strong a certain pattern or occurrence is. For example, the NAO tells you the state of the atmosphere over the North Atlantic with it being differentiated by the strength of the Azores High or any blocking up to Greenland/Iceland. They're not used for forecasting specific weather elements in a country so to speak, just there to help us figure out the pattern that is going to take place.

Donegal Storm · 04-01-2018 11:02pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I would argue that the 'changeability of the weather in itself is also set within a very narrow confine in this country. Each day might bring something different, but no less mundane than the day before, or the day after.

That's something that bugs me when people describe our climate as changeable, in reality we have one of the most benign and constant climates on the planet outside the tropics. Pick any random date on the calendar and there's a very good chance temperatures won't be far from 16C in summer or 7C in winter, there'll be at least 50% cloud cover and there'll be rain in +/-24 hours. It's changeable in the sense that you can't predict whether it'll be raining to any confidence but I'd argue that any climate that experiences extremes (i.e. most) are far more changeable

sryanbruen · 04-01-2018 11:07pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

That's something that bugs me when people describe our climate as changeable, in reality we have one of the most benign and constant climates on the planet outside the tropics. Pick any random date on the calendar and there's a very good chance temperatures won't be far from 16C in summer or 7C in winter, there'll be at least 50% cloud cover and there'll be rain in +/-24 hours. It's changeable in the sense that you can't predict whether it'll be raining to any confidence but I'd argue that any climate that experiences extremes (i.e. most) are far more changeable

Your point on the forecasting or predicting part is exactly why I call it changeable along with how there's not often a spell of a certain weather element other than rain the exception obviously, but your points are valid.

_Dara_ · 04-01-2018 11:13pm

kod87 wrote: »

Why not? If they can deal with it, then surely we can.

Just puts into perspective how utterly boring and uninteresting our weather is,
unless you really like rain and slightly windy conditions, our weather is utter trash

Countries where cold weather is an every-year occurence can justify spending resources on planning for that weather. Boston frequently gets very cold. Not as cold as the current weather too often but they can expect harsh enough winters most years.

Putting the same resources towards it in Ireland makes little sense. In a country where patients spend far too long on hospital trolleys as it is, do you think that represents a sound investment?

nagdefy · 04-01-2018 11:28pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

That's something that bugs me when people describe our climate as changeable, in reality we have one of the most benign and constant climates on the planet outside the tropics. Pick any random date on the calendar and there's a very good chance temperatures won't be far from 16C in summer or 7C in winter, there'll be at least 50% cloud cover and there'll be rain in +/-24 hours. It's changeable in the sense that you can't predict whether it'll be raining to any confidence but I'd argue that any climate that experiences extremes (i.e. most) are far more changeable

8-18C as Eddie Graham of the 1990's Dublin Weather Diary would say for Dublin.

ZX7R · 05-01-2018 1:17am

Bit of sleet falling at the moment a few wet snow flakes mixed in also.
Just outside kildare town

M.T. Cranium · 05-01-2018 6:08am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Meh, I worked in Australia for a couple of years and would quite happily take the summers I had there, unbearably hot some days but waking up to clear blue skies almost every day never really got old. Nor did being able to reliably make outdoor plans weeks in advance! Winters were a different story though, very boring and uneventful

I don't think there's anywhere on the planet with a perfect climate, people in Canada probably look on in envy at our mild snowless winters

Yep, and I've met both of them. :pac:

M.T. Cranium · 05-01-2018 6:21am

If you were looking for a climate that would satisfy all the desires of a weather weenie then somewhere in the Great Lakes region might be among the best, I miss the variations of that climate here in western Canada although we do get some extreme weather events, we also get long stretches of bland weather.

For the person who wants more of a healthy climate and doesn't care about weather events, then as you say Ireland is fairly near the top of the list and the southern part of Vancouver Island is similar in that regard, but I would go for a climate like southern Utah perhaps, it's not too hot for comfort in the summer, although reliably sunny and very warm, and the winters are fairly tame, the spring and fall are generally quite pleasant too. It often rains on only one or two days each month, just enough to keep things from going to full desert mode. There are other pockets like that in the west, climate varies more by elevation than latitude west of the Rockies.

In Canada, I would say three quarters of the population really don't mind the harsh winters, they adapt to the outdoor recreation possibilities and take a certain amount of pride in coping with the extremes. But the other quarter would rather avoid it and go south if they can, or else they move to the most temperate spots in the country like Victoria, B.C. where snow is quite rare. I'm somewhere in between, liking the warmth of the desert southwest (higher up for the summer) but not minding a few weeks of winter either. After about Valentines' Day it starts getting a bit tiresome to see winter hanging on, as it often does well into March. Golf season in most parts of Canada is April to October, but near the west coast more like all year round except when it gets too wet in the winter.

Worst climate for me would be someplace cloudy all the time, like the Aleutians, I need my sunshine. There are stretches in November-December on the coast where it stays too cloudy for weeks, now that we're in the mountains we tend to see more sun in the winter, and the climate here from April to October is very good generally.

MJohnston · 05-01-2018 9:58am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If you were looking for a climate that would satisfy all the desires of a weather weenie then somewhere in the Great Lakes region might be among the best

I think that depends on your tolerance for humid heat vs dry heat. Chicago is unbearable in the summer because of the humidity, for me. Same with most of the US East Coast.

Californian dry heat was much more bearable, although I'm the kind of person that dies inside without any rainy days, and in the 18 months I lived there, there were less than 5 rain days. Torture for me!

pad199207 · 05-01-2018 1:24pm

Certainly a very wintry forecast for the weekend from Met Eireann. Just not Snowy.

Winter 2017-18: Discussion

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