FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

sryanbruen

A snow event possible for the east of the UK on the ECM 12z at +192hrs and then swings the winds in to the east by +216 hours.



Look how far south the jet is at +240 hours.

sryanbruen

In contrast to the above from the ECM at day 10, the GEM has us firmly in an Atlantic zonal flow:

Captain Snow

Just to Note any of these lows could become a trigger low off our South coast and give us an Easterly. The Scandinavian High is also making an appearance from run to run. So many scenarios at the moment.

George Sunsnow

sryanbruen wrote: »

A snow event possible for the east of the UK on the ECM 12z at +192hrs and then swings the winds in to the east by +216 hours.



Look how far south the jet is at +240 hours.

That 240 from the ECM - northeasterlies passing over the snow fields (by then) of northern England & Southern Scotland and down through the Irish Sea picking up a lot of moisture in a max fetch snow shower train creating situation in low pressure with various disturbances traveling down along it ,probably with an icy surface air feed by then is a thing of beauty
Can we dare dream of FI like that becoming a reality ?

Captain Snow

Snow risk for next Friday. Based off the GFS this evening..:D









Cant wait for the 18Z tonight.

munsterlegend

Captain Snow wrote: »

Snow risk for next Friday. Based of the ECM this evening..:D



Cant wait for the 18Z tonight.

I love the way the snow just seems to stop as it reaches co cork. Typical! Shield is working well

White Clover

munsterlegend wrote: »

I love the way the snow just seems to stop as it reaches co cork. Typical! Shield is working well

Long live the snow shield. My sheep have a good bit of grazing to do yet. I don't want to see or hear about snow until the last week in January!

Donegal Storm

That's the GFS, not the ECM. The 12z ECM is mostly dry again with only a brief shot of unstable air

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

I love the way the snow just seems to stop as it reaches co cork. Typical! Shield is working well

If there are north westerlies Cork will see snow. Always does in that set up.

JCX BXC

There is no 'shield' in Cork, no more than the vast majority of southern Ireland. If anything I'd say cork gets snow more often than we do here in West Clare.

snowstorm445

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

If there are north westerlies Cork will see snow. Always does in that set up.

Yep, Cork has gotten some decent snow more than once over the past few years from a northwesterly set up (although it tends not to last long as northwesterlies are usually very transient). It's Leinster and Co. Waterford that tend to be left bone dry (you really need an easterly of some description for the East coast to get any real covering of snow).

Captain Snow

Classic Stuff at 120hrs.

gally74

Captain Snow wrote: »

Classic Stuff at 120hrs.

Oh happy days

server down

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Yep, Cork has gotten some decent snow more than once over the past few years from a northwesterly set up (although it tends not to last long as northwesterlies are usually very transient). It's Leinster and Co. Waterford that tend to be left bone dry (you really need an easterly of some description for the East coast to get any real covering of snow).

Conversely it’s only easterlies that tend to bring long lasting snow. Snow from the west is Atlantic driven.

Gonzo

server down wrote: »

Conversely it’s only easterlies that tend to bring long lasting snow. Snow from the west is Atlantic driven.

looks like it could be a dry one for much of the eastern half of the country alright.

icesnowfrost

Models are look great. Hopefully by the end of this run they still look as good. Way into FI more blocking and I think if the cold spell takes hold next week it could last up to the 18th but that's a big If.
Still looking great

BLIZZARD7

ECM 12z very messy in FI, lots of cold rain from day 7 onwards. Luckily it's ages away so if the pattern backs west a fair bit ala GFS it might be more interesting come the time.

icesnowfrost

Good agreement on the models. If this continues like this on Tuesday might be worth starting a cold snap snow potential thread?

Cantona's Collars

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Good agreement on the models. If this continues like this on Tuesday might be worth starting a cold snap snow potential thread?

UKMO on board with that set up for the end of the week. After the midweek low passes through and drags down that cold from the North.

JCX BXC

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Good agreement on the models. If this continues like this on Tuesday might be worth starting a cold snap snow potential thread?

One was started yesterday!

icesnowfrost

JCX BXC wrote: »

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Good agreement on the models. If this continues like this on Tuesday might be worth starting a cold snap snow potential thread?

One was started yesterday!

Link?

Meteorite58

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Link?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057815705

snowstorm445

After a return to westerlies towards the start of next week, GFS leaves us in a lovely slack north-easterly airflow towards mid-month. To be taken with a truck-load of salt of course.





Brrrrr!

BLIZZARD7

Incredible NH synoptics, PV in bits. We need these trends to continue if we want a memorable winter...

Buffalobill29

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Incredible NH synoptics, PV in bits. We need these trends to continue if we want a memorable winter...

Is it looking good for a cold winter then?

BLIZZARD7

Buffalobill29 wrote: »

Is it looking good for a cold winter then?

All things considered, yes, but that doesn't mean much in reality. Almost alll the teleconnections are good for a cold winter but as we know from the past, that doesn't necessarily mean a cold winter will transpire. I would say it's quite likely this will be coldest winter since 2010-2011 though.

Rebelbrowser

A few runs on the trot now the GFS is suggesting an easterly of sorts during Christmas week.

I'm dreaming of a white.....

Villain

Now that is more like it and what FI is for, Fantasy

Gentleman Off The Pitch

Quick question about that chart, from someone trying to understand the charts better, I understand the significance of the 850hPa temperatures with respect to snow, but the charts tells us nothing of precipitation. Is it just assumed that the Atlantic will deliver it ?

BLIZZARD7

Gentleman Off The Pitch wrote: »

Quick question about that chart, from someone trying to understand the charts better, I understand the significance of the 850hPa temperatures with respect to snow, but the charts tells us nothing of precipitation. Is it just assumed that the Atlantic will deliver it ?

In that chart Rebelbrowser posted we would likely see some streamers coming in off the Irish Sea for some lucky locations in the east. This of course also dependent on how high or low the air pressure is, dew points, thicknesses, temperature, exact wind direction amongst other variables.

I think he was just trying to show that there is deep cold showing its hand on some of the charts way out in FI - don't take anything that far out seriously though.