FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

A few runs on the trot now the GFS is suggesting an easterly of sorts during Christmas week.

I'm dreaming of a white.....

That would be a great Christmas present, even if it would be just cold and dry for my location:)

Meteorite58

ECM showing a stormy feature NW of Ireland at T+192





GFS showing something similar but about a day earlier, often shows features a day ahead I believe.

nacho libre

The ECM is also depicting some extreme gusts over parts of Scotland on Thursday.

Meteorite58

nacho libre wrote: »

The ECM is also depicting some extreme gusts over parts of Scotland on Thursday.

Yea see that , we dodged a bullet there.


Long way off but a very strong jet coming roughly from a W'ly or NW'ly direction showing up around Mon/ Tues 12th atm.

Meteorite58

Intrigued by the 12Z ECM . Has a lot of energy generated across the Atlantic on the E coast of the US and being brought North and phased with areas of LP's coming out of Canada and propelled along towards us by a powerful steering jet. The ECM is not one to exaggerate.Will see.

Looking at the GFS towards the end of the run it would suggest to me that as the Azores high retreats we are entering a more zonal regime .

BLIZZARD7

Each run brings the slider low further south west on Sunday - this could end up being a snowy 'breakdown' IF Everything lines up correctly. One to watch - we are overdue some snowy luck.

icesnowfrost

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Each run brings the slider low further south west on Sunday - this could end up being a snowy 'breakdown' IF Everything lines up correctly. One to watch - we are overdue some snowy luck.

Agreed... it's defo one to watch. An exciting week ahead model watching and hopefully lamppost watching

BLIZZARD7

Round 2 - uppers around -5-6c, would be perfect if we can manage to drag in slightly colder air.



Wicklow mountains would probably get buried. An interesting start to winter anyway...

cherryghost

Yes it seems like battleground scenario at the weekend but it seems likely the Atlantic Regime may win.

George Sunsnow

Looking at the 12Z ECM you’d be of 2 minds really
1. There’s lots of potential cold re runs in FI but recent experience shows what transpires to current ends up not the color of what’s promised
But
2.The whole NH just want to keep ejecting cold from the north and as this is only the start it’s the one or two out of ten attempts that make the whole hog that you’d want to watch out for?
Those one or two could well be MT’s winter forecast’s January snowy spells

nacho libre

I see the GFS on a few runs of late have been hinting at height rises to the north east in the longer term. Although without a Greenland High i would not bank on any potential Scandi high effecting us, though it might be different for parts of the UK.

hatrickpatrick

FI at 240hrs on the ECM is moving somewhat in the right direction:

Captain Snow

Rinse and repeat. Lps forming of the tip of Greenland and coming our way. The rest of tonights 18z keeps us in the Freezer.





Looking at all the models and the way they have been going I think we are in for a major snow event sometime this winter.

Nabber

Captain Snow wrote: »

Looking at all the models and the way they have been going I think we are in for a major snow event sometime this winter.

The sun have just reserved a whole page you to write their weather predictions



Although next week is looking interesting. Might just see a return of a North Easterly for a few days.

sryanbruen

Who'd like a White Christmas? 'Cause I sure would!

nagdefy

sryanbruen wrote: »

Who'd like a White Christmas? 'Cause I sure would!

This December is already much more interesting than any since 2010. If you took away 2009 and 2010 it's up with a lot of them. I know late 2000 and late 2001 delivered serious cold and snow, especially to the northern half of the country.

Captain Snow

A recurring theme. Scandinavian High building and a huge Canadian cold out break in to the west Atlantic. We are in the middle.




MERRY CHRISTMAS

The St Stephans Day Blizzard....

nagdefy

Looking at the various models into FI this evening, and MT's forecast, after Friday it looks like the 10 days to Christmas will be more normal Atlantic fare. Hope there's more winter to come after that Any thoughts?

icesnowfrost

nagdefy wrote: »

Looking at the various models into FI this evening, and MT's forecast, after Friday it looks like the 10 days to Christmas will be more normal Atlantic fare. Hope there's more winter to come after that Any thoughts?

Yeah seen that but it being fi means it can always change.

giveitholly

Would there be a lot of rain coming with that or is it hard to know

nagdefy

giveitholly wrote: »

Would there be a lot of rain coming with that or is it hard to know

Hard to say at this stage. It doesn't look exceptionally unsettled into FI just the Atlantic rain belts and drier interludes. By no means appears to be a raging Atlantic. Really to early to say.

nagdefy

The Stephen's Day Storm :eek: Wouldn't be the first one (1998). Deep FI of course.

Captain Snow

A hint at a Scandinavian High Building or another Arctic Northwest Out Break over the Christmas period. So many choices, twists and turns to this winter already.

squarecircles

Some very disturbed,stormy weather continuously cropping up after Chrismas day on the GFS.

Captain Snow

Looking at all The models they seem to have fallen back into Atlantic mode. With such a strange set up so far i just dont think wé are going to get this mild weather. I think wé will see a huge swing back to colder weather.



(EDIT )Just read John Hammond's blog....there going old school and not trusting the Models. 18.43

https://weathertrending.com/2017/12/08/on-the-horizon/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Darwin

On netweather the teleconnections experts are all saying that the MJO is entering a favourable phase for cold weather in NW Europe, the lag time is typically 10 to 15 days (doesn't necessarily mean all it will be cold in our shores). Also, the models generally follow the signals, so not to put too much store into the FI charts.

BLIZZARD7

ECM 12z more amplified, keeps a ridge over the country for a while- potentially Cold and frosty at the surface if the higher can ridge a touch more north rather than mild wet and windy if the Atlantic comes roaring in and flattens the pattern.



It would be perfect if we can manage to get a high to build over the country before the teleconnections start kicking in for something more interesting to develop down the line.

Nabber

Should be no talk of Atlantic in this thread, unless it’s providing a moisture rich low undercutting our Scandi high, dropping 30mm onto our pool of cold!!!

We should be scouring through all models, regardless of performance, picking the best chart and writing posts on how the chart is plausible and how it happed in 1807, and how we are due an event like that every 210years.

Meteorite58

Looks milder next week from later Sunday. Could be a frost free week too. S'ly and SW'l winds showing up throughout the week

Rebelbrowser

Cant post charts but 6z gfs much cooler and less stormy over xmas with the customary easterly at the end (ca. 28/29th Dec.)