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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 02-09-2017 12:41am
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Mod Note
    This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

    If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

    Thanks


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The end of next week and over that weekend has the look of producing a lot of weather. The Jet looks to be well fired up and we seem to be moving into a very active Atlantic regime.

    tempresult_pmr3.gif

    The charts below will go through changes over the next week but they have the makings of producing some fairly wet and windy weather towards next week end and the days after.

    8LEVFOY.gif?1

    A long way off but as for Hurricane Irma it would seem to me that if it follows something like the path of the run below that it could pump a lot of moisture and energy northwards fueling up Depressions making their way over towards us in a couple of weeks time.

    2Qe2PKF.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    A long way off but for a few runs now a lively deepening LP showing up on the models for next weekend. First storm of the Autumn ?

    jfK0GQf.gif?1


    tempresult_qud2.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    If it forms it looks fast moving, models showing it could easily go South of Ireland, taking the winds towards the S of Engalnd / France, and moving into the N sea where it might deepen to it's lowest pressure, will see, lots of twists and turns no doubt.


    https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/904227594551402496


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looking through the charts and looks like moving into a windy weekend with the main models showing a deep area of LP close to Ireland around Sun /Mon, too far out to pinpoint . There has been evidence from the models over the last couple of days of potential for an unsettled period from around next Sun / Mon through to Weds / Thurs with possibly a succession of deep areas of LP passing close to the country. The charts below will change no doubt in timing and tracking but giving an idea of what is showing at the moment .

    The Jet charts look very fueled up at times over the next Week or so and passing over us at times.


    gfs-5-144_guf8.png



    BCT4ID0.gif?1


    tempresult_lnz4.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    Still showing this evening on the ECMWF, could be the first real blast of autumn this weekend

    ECM1-120_vfd1.GIF


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Still showing this evening on the ECMWF, could be the first real blast of autumn this weekend

    Yea looking through the models they are all pointing to potentially rough weather over the weekend. The GFS which was a bit all over the place seems to have come back in line with the other models which have been quite consistent highlighting this deepening LP around Sun / Mon.

    Fri Sat NW winds and blustery leading into potentially very windy or stormy on Sun into Mon. At this stage most of the winds showing up along the Atlantic seaboard and later the S coasts. Looks cool and showery and possibly quite wet on Sun. Certainly no Indian Summer in sight.

    All subject to change of course being 114 - 120 hrs away.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    strong winds possible next friday on the 00z and 06z GFS

    ukgust.png

    ukgust.png

    hgt300.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    We can dream :rolleyes:

    ECM1-240_gwi5.GIF

    Some interesting model output at the moment though with Jose coming into the north Atlantic mid week as potentially a very strong storm, hopefully it'll kickstart a pattern change

    This chart for Wednesday looks interesting as well with potential for an active front

    gfs-0-102_dih0.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The models are a bit all over the place the latter part of next week, probably as a result of trying to figure out where Jose will end up and how it's energy will disperse. The GFS has been showing a very deep vigorous depression ( 963 hPa :eek: ) around next Fri Sat ( very wet too ) although the other models dont show it as deep and holding it well away from Ireland . The run below shows Jose skirting by the E coast of the USA and regaining strength 940 hPa ??? making it's way up towards Iceland . The Jet looks very strong at times .Will be interesting watching the track and strength to see what transpires.

    7HyscQm.gif?1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Next Friday / Saturdays deep depression shown to stay well off the coast in the latest runs by the three main models. Looks like we will be clipped by some frontal rain and winds ( possibly heavy rain I would think ).


    WaivEMt.gif?1


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    ECMWF still hinting at this, gets into motion around 168z, hopefully its actually on to something

    ECM1-216_xaz0.GIF


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Just going to put up these charts here to see how accurate the ECM might be ( been doing very well lately ). Long long way off but Hurricane Maria is forecast to veer off to the NW around the weekend and then track Northwestwards off the E cost of the US, possibly interacting with the remnants of Jose , the ECM then shows it taking a track towards Ireland around Fri / Sat 30th ( at this stage an extra tropical storm perhaps and if it did come near our shores it would probably contain a mild humid airmass ). Not beyond the bounds of possibility yet so much could change in the mean time.

    2j3dCRj.gif?1

    5n3bQFD.png?1


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    ECMWF still hinting at this, gets into motion around 168z, hopefully its actually on to something

    Rather predictably this forecast has now been dropped in favour of a cool, windy wet week instead :)

    ECM1-168_hbq4.GIF


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Rather predictably this forecast has now been dropped in favour of a cool, windy wet week instead

    So hard to keep track of the models at the moment. They keep chopping and changing more so now as the seasons change and from the energy being released by all the Tropical activity. Saw your post Donegal Storm about Hurricane Maria in the other thread. It seems to take a slow moving track for about 7 days off the E coast of the USA and then the GFS has it as probably an extra tropical storm hurtling across the Atlantic until it arrives at the S of Ireland and gets absorbed into another area of LP and does a a bit of a dance over Ireland, all the time strengthening around Tues 3 -4 Oct , a full 12 days away. Makes for an Interesting chart to look at but yes probably looking completely different in another couple of runs. Will Keep an eye on it to be sure though :)


    vGm9seW.gif?1

    DDFvnj5.gif?1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    An interesting couple of charts from the ECM has the remnants cross a similar track but a couple of days earlier, and note the last frame on the bottom chart with another area of LP off the N coast.

    Note 850 hPa wind Chart

    tempresult_vsg6.gif


    oNNDkN7.png?1


    TR6BOPe.gif?1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Models in disaray this afternoon with some complete different scenarios . The gfs keeps ex Maria heading towards Ireland in a weaker state and interacting with other areas of LP around the 2nd. Looks like a wet spell of weather , maybe very wet if this were to happen.

    The ECM has Maria heading for Greenland on the latest run with areas of LP near Ireland around the same dates as the GFS but also showing longwave ridging in the Atlantic making a move towards Ireland at the end of the run.

    Wouldn't be surprised if this run was an outlier and might come back more in line with the GFS on the next run ??? Will see.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    After an earlier outlier the ECM came back to its original track for the remnants of Maria, the GFS just after rolling out shows Maria take a track towards Ireland and end up as a very deep storm and looks mighty powerful in this run ( accompanied by a host of depressions ). Long, long way off, and no way certain, could easily end up in Iceland but interesting nonetheless.


    pabgCor.gif?1

    H3ARX0k.gif?1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The GFS this morning has no resemblance to the ones posted earlier, has Maria heading towards Greenland . The ECM is keeping more to its previous track of sending the remnants of Maria towards Ireland where it probably gets absorbed by other weather systems, looks like an unsettled period of weather from the 30 - 3 of Oct .

    This seems to be the pattern when ex Hurricanes, ex tropical storms are released into our latitudes , the models struggle and have a hard time trying to compute them . Maybe it is asking too much of them to be so accurate in the 6- 10 day time frame.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Well the latest run from the GFS is back on track and shows not only the hefty remnants of Maria reaching our shores but also having absorbed what I think is the newly formed Tropical Storm Lee, two for the price of one :pac:

    No shortage of LP activity it would seem.

    W3Kf6Wb.gif?1


    utZNw0J.gif?1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Powerful Jet

    As76Akl.png


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    From EUStorm



    'The potential for a very strong cyclone to grace NW Europe late next weekend is a reality. GFS is beginning to play this card on a regular basis now for October 2nd. It's a caesium of time away in terms of forecasting with any confidence but having some experience this is possible! The Jet Stream is in a perfect position to guide this system into NW Europe, the SST's are at their warmest this time of year in the North Atlantic. It's a matter of terminology and 7 degrees that does not allow NW Europe "us" to call this a Hurricane, rather a "deep area of low pressure" that is capable of producing Hurricane force winds! make of that what you will.
    The Atlantic basin has been very active this season as we have all seen and will have a knock-on effect during this winter.
    It's far to early to bring exact details and I hope GFS decides differently on this one! It's October "windy month" a storm of this magnitude will cause major disruption of all kinds, trees are still fully laden! storm surge will be a factor, people will not be prepared and will be out on the roads.
    Keep posted with EU Storm Map and expect more details as they become clearer this week and we will begin to look at the track and the areas potentially at risk.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    Flip flopped again on the 18z gfs, storm winding itseft up to Iceland,eventually leading to a build of high pressure over Ireland from a scandi high.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Big difference between all the models now. First looking at the LP fro next Fri , GFS showing it much further off shore, nearer to Iceland then to Ireland.

    gfs-0-120_xnx6.png

    The UKMO brings it nearer to Ireland, this would seem to reflect Met Eireanns forecast.

    UW120-21_brn5.GIF

    U120-21UK_jcg2.GIF

    The ECMWF is somewhere in between the two I would think, leaning towards the UKMO.

    After that it's anyone's guess. I think from looking across the models it will be an unsettled wet weekend. There after I think the ECMWF has been the better performing model. I t shows ex Maria form a large depression/storm after linking up with an area of LP coming out of Greenland and making it to our shores sometime around the 4th. Not too dissimilar to the chart above from the 21st .

    8cNL4VE.gif?1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The 12z ECMWF has taken the remnants of Maria on a new track after it clears the East coast of the US towards Spain! This is a break from a good few previous runs. An outlier perhaps ? Or else I'm putting too much trust in it :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,938 ✭✭✭ PokeHerKing


    I'm playing golf this wknd in sligo folks, is there any chance I won't be playing in a gale?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    :eek:

    airpressure.png

    ukgust.png

    [IMG]https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20170925/00/183/ukgust.png[/IMG update; GFS 06z brings it up to Iceland instead[/img]


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    Direct hit from Maria on both ECMWF and GFS this afternoon, GFS in particular interesting with nearly 48 hours of likely storm force winds!

    ECM1-192_tnp1.GIF

    gfs-0-168_djk0.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,449 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    If it’s still showing the same strength and track by Friday it will certainly have to be watched


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,527 ✭✭✭ Darwin


    12z ECM model has it further south and more flabby looking. Still a lot of uncertainty of course!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    For some time a stormy end to September/start to October has been mooted.

    Will it materialize?

    Certainly windy at the least...potentially damaging


This discussion has been closed.
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