Winter 2010-2011 outlook

WolfeIRE wrote: »

let's hope that councils are planning to acquire salt and grity supplies in advance this time.

dfbemt wrote: »

This is now being handled by the NRA !! If you thought last year was badly coordinated wait till you see this shower (no pun intended)

Wild Bill wrote: »

Reality check: Compared to the Local Authorities the NRA operates like a Swiss watch. :cool:

WolfeIRE wrote: »

we can give out about them all we want but on the flipside they have delivered plenty for Ireland. I can now drive to Dublin in less than 3 hrs compared to 4 to 4.5 a few years ago.

And we still managed to run out of salt...........

Deleted User wrote: »

I think I'll write those monthly outlooks for the BBC.
It will make no difference ,they're so inaccurate and change so often that they are a waste of bandwidth.

They have been all over the place since late December. However they were remarkably consistent from late November up until the end of December about severe cold taking hold and persisting despite model wavering.

Pangea wrote: »

That seems to be the case since the start of January in a lot of the models, looks like the uncertainty is going to continue for the rest of January.

The models were consistent about this milder spell taking hold. The uncertainity is from day seven as to how cold it wll get. I still have my doubts about an easterly taking hold- although blocking from the north east tends to be more of a feature in February. It looks like the ukmo are going for a mid atlantic blocking ridge based on their latest update. Which means cold north westerlies, but nothing like we had in December.

This pattern reversal now ongoing is the mid-month change to milder weather that I had in my winter outlook, the set-up is pretty much what was indicated in the "index values" from past analogues. Since the past analogues just contribute individual signals to the mix, there was no real "past analogue" for December, just as this January and February will also be unique. However, the method seems to be working pretty well so far ... in fact, it made me laugh but I started to get criticism on another forum about underplaying the severe weather in December. Imagine making that critique of the forecast a day after it was issued! I'm sure most of the snow lovers on this and other forums were thinking, hope we get even half of that. Now some are complaining they got more than advertised. Really, what can I say? The methodology is so promising but there's no way that a long-range forecaster is going to predict temperatures six degrees below normal for a month, although I think anyone reading the details would see that possibility in the range of outcomes.

Now, enough about the past, what about the present and future? Is the MTC long-range forecast on track or does it need revision?

This mid-month reversal has arrived perhaps 3-4 days ahead of schedule, and seeing how strong the signal was in the index values at forecast time, I hedged somewhat by saying that the breakthrough might give a winter storm scenario at first. This phase is basically the weather of the past four days or so and there have been outbreaks of snow and sleet as well as rain but clearly the mild regime is rapidly winning this phase of the great battle of winter 2010-2011 and will be hard to dislodge right away. I would imagine that it may take about a week after the 17th to reset a colder pattern, and this will probably happen with linkage between the Greenland high and a Scandinavian high that has retrogressed from Siberia through Russia.

The outlook then is more or less unchanged, a mild spell lasting perhaps a week to ten days, then colder in stages, and a cold February with some return of wintry weather conditions likely after 20 Jan and especially by about 27 Jan onward. There's no precise information available in this method to say whether February might be another extremely cold month or just more of a 1-2 C below normal type of anomaly, but either way snow is favoured at some point. I would say watch the period around the first week of February for possible snowfalls, and mid-February for more of a battleground sort of pattern where, if it can stay cold, winter storms are possible, and if the cold relents a bit, rain would spread in from the southwest. Another cold period indicated is near the end of February and first week of March.

Finally, a very long-range detail from the research, intense storm potential will develop on two sets of dates -- 19 to 21 March, and 3-5 April. In those time periods, I would expect to find some strong lows on the map near Ireland and if they are far enough north, strong winds affecting Ireland (if they turn out to be further south, either of these could bring a late return of wintry precip). These storm dates are based on exceptionally strong combinations of two different sets of energy peaks that coincide with the full and new moons at that times.

My initial feeling for January was for a Cold Mild Cold

It think this will pan out with some hiccups and more frost than snow, though in Sligo we have had 2cm so far all last Saturday (Jan 8th) morning.

From January 20th it looks cold every time I look at charts but the charts do look different every time too. I think a frosty set up would be the safest set up to predict for the last third of January with just a few rogue showers.

This weather we got in December will not happen this month at least. I dont really know what to expect in February but if the High Pressure was to establish itself from the Atlantic there may be more dry weather followed by Wintry showers and maybe some snow before the milder weather returns mid month but that is a pure guess.

I think it's in some people's genetic make-up to scutinize everything in an effort to find fault. You'll find though that these same people are very reluctant to open up their own forecast's to public scrutiny, or even have the ball's to make a forecast to begin with.

Its cyclonic unfortunately, low pressure to the north and high pressure down near the Azores, it has to be the other way round for the perfect cold spell.
Still, compared to what we have now I'd take it even it is way out in FI.

How do you get to see the real far out model charts on meteociel - when i click on 'gfs europe' it shows projected 850 temps out to 192 hours (or Friday 21st at the mo) but the chart above is for friday 28th - am i missing something really obvious?

Look away now(unless you're a mild lover)


View PostGlacier Point, on 19 October 2010 - 20:51 , said:
Both continue to suggest that the Brewer Dobson Circulation is weakening and this decreases the potential for high latitude blocking into January and February.


December verification:

Colder than normal - correctly forecast although the depth of the cold was not.

Drier than normal - correctly forecast (England and Wales 39% of monthly average according to Philip Eden).

Pressure to be higher to the west - correctly forecast (see 500hPa plot below depicting ridges in the Pacific and Atantic).

Attached Image: dec verification z500.JPG

Moving forward, I'm very happy with our call for a much more average January temperature wise and increasingly the prospects for average or milder February.

Min wrote: »

Sounds great, hopefully an early spring, this mild weather has been glorious.

Blasphemer:mad:


It would certainly back up Philip Eden's assertion a few weeks ago about winters that start off unusually cold staying that way for the duration of the season are the exception rather than rule. Well that maybe stating the obvious since the winters of 1962/63 and 1947 wouldn't stand out otherwise.
By the way I should point out the Glacier Point is one of the chief forecasters over on Netweather.

Wild Bill wrote: »

What is FI? - as in "way out in FI".

Another bit of tumbleweed!

FI = Fantasy Island. Often more a dream than expected reality.:)

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Haha , I do , absolutely love the cold wintery weather,

But dont get me wrong I love a beautiful sunny day as much as the next person, but the mild murky stuff aint for me !

Actually purchased my first weather station today !

http://www.weathershop.co.uk/shop/collections/special-offers/oregon-scientific-wmr100n-weather-station.html

I was going to go all out for the Davis but said I would gently jump in .

My apologies if people dont like the updates from the NW forum , but anything is better than nothing .

You don't have to apologise. We're all in the same boat- well most of us!
Even if the worst case scenario of next weeks high sinking comes about- and that is very much a possibility with the situation up north, it would be quite a shock if we didn't get snow at some point during Feburary. February is traditionally the month that the Atlantic goes quiet as well. So a proper easterly could still develop at some point during Feburary.