Winter 2010-2011 outlook

TheMilkyPirate

Villain wrote: »

10c to 14c forecast for this weekend and next week in Carlow

That's fair enough villain thanks for the explanation and the above comment did make me laugh tbh :pac:

I wasn't defending his forecasts just trying to get the thread back on track and i thought it was a bit unfair the way the man was being spoken to sometimes if people don't agree with him just ignore him. Some of the comments were nearly personal, And nobody here but mods an admin have the right to tell someone to find another forum cause there sick of them which is what someone a few posts up said.

But, Anyway i'd really like to here some peoples opinions on the rest of winter

glimmerman123

Back to topic guys Evelyn Cusack just said on the six one weather that it looks like this cold spell will last for up to seven or eight days and that there is no sign of any mild weather on the horizon. So it might be looking good for a white xmas going by her forecast.:)

Kenring

Sponge Bob wrote: »

You built a career on opinion, this coyness counts as a first fence refusal dude

If I say something will happen and it doesn't on that exact day, people say, who were you to say will, some sort of god? So I try to use "may" and "is likely to". But I notice Met Eirann say will all the time.

Hammy_irl

glimmerman123 wrote: »

Back to topic guys Evelyn Cusack just said on the six one weather that it looks like this cold spell will last for up to seven or eight days and that there is no sign of any mild weather on the horizon. So it might be looking good for a white xmas going by her forecast.:)

I hope your right....it would be great to stay around for xmas but technically 7 or 8 days from now only makes the 23rd?!

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

I can understand what you say about this thread but we tried to discuss this in a reasonable manner before and the thread got locked because Ken just wanted to promote his service which to be honest it nothing short of useless.

I heard Ken on the radio and had people who know I'm into the weather asking me if the "Fella from New Zealand" was really able to predict so far in advance.

So instead of saying yes or no without giving him a chance I purchased his forecast for the year and basically its been useless and I mean useless every major weather event has not been forecast.

When I questioned him he came up with every excuse under the sun and I mean EVERY excuse, have a look at the old thread if you don't believe me. After running out of excuses he said he only offered an opinion and it may be right or wrong. When questioned about how he stated Live on national Radio that he could forecast down to the hour years in advance he said he said it in "Jest"!

I have no problem with anyone offering an opinion in fact I welcome it but I do have a problem with people selling a service that is usless and when questioned on it just say its an opinion. He may be able to offer an opinion that people can read here for free but I couldn't warn people strongly enough about "Paying" for this opinion that has been proven to fail time and time again. 10c to 14c forecast for this weekend and next week in Carlow

Villain, you forgot the minor detail that you are a competing meteorologist with a competing website, who purchased my forecast to find fault. You ignored my explanations about how to interpret my data only as trends , instead citing temperatures on particular days and saying I was way off. When I said I always will be that and my temperatures were only rising or falling indications you began your abusive campaign, which had nothing to do with weather.
Back to topic, I would agree with Cusack, because the moon is at its northernmost point for December on the 20th. That puts that date centrally in her 7-8 days of cold. Clearly she's a moon enthusiast.:)

jamesoc

I have been reading through the earlier thread , ie when he was posting as 'Gene Derm' http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055720835 , he had no problems answering some very specific questions from posters inquiring about certain days etc , ie he was able to inform them that ''it will be cloudy on a specific day Sligo in 6 months time'' or whatever ,this is all BULL/S..T , the man from Carlow who purchased his forecasts certainly thinks so .

Would suggest that more of you have a good read through the thread http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055720835

Kenring

trogdor wrote: »

You may post any forecast you wish as long as you're not openly advertising your website:)

I am still confused. To illustrate points in this forum, links to articles are often quoted, which saves posting whole articles. You are saying I cannot do this to articles I may have written? The nature of many articles are that they are amalgams of the opinions of others anyway. Please help me to understand that when a link to something Met Eirann has said is posted, that is not "openly advertising" their websites and service. Believe me, I do want to comply with your ruling.

jamesoc

Simple Ken , lets have a sample forecast for Carlow 1st Jan 2011 , yes or no

Kenring

jamesoc wrote: »

I have been reading through the earlier thread , ie when he was posting as 'Gene Derm' http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055720835 , he had no problems answering some very specific questions from posters inquiring about certain days etc , ie he was able to inform them that ''it will be cloudy on a specific day Sligo in 6 months time'' or whatever ,this is all BULL/S..T , the man from Carlow who purchased his forecasts certainly thinks so .

Would suggest that more of you have a good read through the thread http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055720835

So now we are going to go back and analyse my forecasts from two years ago? Are we also going to do the same with Met Eirann's forecasts? If not, kindly stop singling me out for special treatment.

Kenring

jamesoc wrote: »

Simple Ken , lets have a sample forecast for Carlow 1st Jan 2011 , yes or no

Very cold, snowing, followed by a dry spell of about 10-12 days or so.

jamesoc

ME don't do long range forecasts , but you do , at a price , and they're hopeless , astrological balderdash but that's only my opinion , so prove me wrong : sample forecast for Carlow 01/01/11 is very cold and snowing , followed by a 10/12 day dry spell ( which may coincide with an Easterly ) .. very good and thank you .

Kenring

jamesoc wrote: »

ME dont do long range forecasts , but you do , at a price , and they're hopeless , astrological balderdash but thats only my opinion , so prove me wrong : sample forecast for Carlow 01/01/11 is very cold and snowing , very good and thank you .

Hang on, they do. Evelyn Cusack has gone 8 days and beyond in just this instance. When she and I were on the same radio show 3 years ago she went for the BBQ summer when I said summer would only come for 2 weeks in September.

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

Villain, you forgot the minor detail that you are a competing meteorologist with a competing website

I'm sorry I don't want to drag this thread off topic but that statement is complete and utter crap Ken.

I am certainly not a "competing meteorologist", I have never claimed to be and no matter how many times I tell you that you always seem to want to throw that at me.

My website and weather equipment COSTS me money and I provide all the information and work FOR FREE.

I have recieved €75 from google ads over 2 years thats less than I paid you for your forecast never mind the cost of hosting the site or the €2,000 I have spent on equipment.

Don't compare me with you, I offer a service for FREE that costs me money.

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

I'm sorry I don't want to drag this thread off topic but that statement is complete and utter crap Ken.

I am certainly not a "competing meteorologist", I have never claimed to be and no matter how many times I tell you that you always seem to want to throw that at me.

My website and weather equipment COSTS me money and I provide all the information and work FOR FREE.

I have recieved €75 from google ads over 2 years thats less than I paid you for your forecast never mind the cost of hosting the site or the €2,000 I have spent on equipment.

Don't compare me with you, I offer a service for FREE that costs me money.

Anyone who works for free in this day and age is in a privileged bracket. There are certainly not many like you. I have also spent thousands, but I am not as wealthy as you seem to be. You are proud to say you offer free stuff. I do too, and that is the part of my work I most enjoy. But to continue to provide the service I need to recoup costs. If people are prepared to take a punt on something, surely they do it with their eyes open? Have you ever put money down at the races?

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

Anyone who works for free in this day and age is in a privileged bracket. There are certainly not many like you. I have also spent thousands, but I am not as wealthy as you seem to be. You are proud to say you offer free stuff. I do too, and that is the part of my work I most enjoy. But to continue to provide the service I need to recoup costs. If people are prepared to take a punt on something, surely they do it with their eyes open? Have you ever put money down at the races?

Privileged?? ROFL

You really have a bad memory or you are just been a Troll at this stage, I have told you several times I work for a living as an I.T. System Admin, in fact I've been working 60 hours a week for less in the last year.

I am trying to build my home which after 2 years I still haven't got a roof on, I drive an 8 year old car. I am very lucky to have a job so maybe compared to many who have lost jobs here I am privileged but I certainly work very hard for a very modest wage.

I simple enjoy weather watching and saved up money to get a weather station and then used my I.T. skills to provide a website for free.

I would invite you a public live debate to discuss your forecasts that you charge for here or anywhere you like because after running out of excuses you are now trying to attack me which btw I have not done to you.

jamesoc

Kenring wrote: »

Hang on, they do. Evelyn Cusack has gone 8 days and beyond in just this instance. When she and I were on the same radio show 3 years ago she went for the BBQ summer when I said summer would only come for 2 weeks in September.

The BBQ summer outlook came from the UKMO not Evelyn Cusack .
ME only forecast a week ahead .
The 2 weeks in summer dry spell in September on average one of the more settled months , was correct .
However the record breaking deluge of November 09 wasn't predicted .

Kenring

jamesoc wrote: »

The BBQ summer outlook came from the UKMO not Evelyn Cusack .
ME only forecast a week ahead .
The 2 weeks in summer dry spell in September on average one of the more settled months , was correct .
However the record breaking deluge of November 09 wasn't predicted .

You are correct, but Evelyn went along with it.
What breaks records cannot be predicted because each locality gets different amounts and I cover whole counties at once. Records don't mean much except reference back to equal amounts being exceeded, which is very small-sampled for most data-gathering. But more importantly, my method cannot accurately predict amounts, because amounts depend on prior evaporation rates, caused by heat from the sun.

Because it is astrologically-based, you can make the same comparison to other branches of astrology. Amounts are never discussed, only trends.

As a very simplistic example, an astrologer may tell a client, she may receive an inheritance over the next month (I'm joking, of course..). But that would be it. Even if it was something closer to the client's reality it would never be that she would receive 5640EURO in a shared inheritance settlement at 4.05pm on the 29th. (Don't take me apart on this one -I don't believe in or perform that type of astrology, but some do)
Nevertheless, all forecasting, short term, extended term and longrange, has followed that old astrological way of communicating the message. It stays loose because it cannot be exact. It stays vague because there are other factors that cannot be included, for all sorts of reasons. Usefulness is the bottom line, that a client who is future-planning may have something that is marginally better than having nothing at all.

Wild Bill

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

It will start snowing at 1:48 p.m. Thursday in Dublin, 1:49 if you're south of the Liffey....
But I'm serious about the 1:48 p.m., give or take two hours.

Oh Dear!

WolfeIRE

Gulf Stream Temperature Anomaly

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/2010/12/gulf-stream-temperature-anomaly.html

Something interesting has been happening in the waters of the North Atlantic since the end of the Hurricane Season on 30th November 2010, writes Anthony McEvoy.

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

It will start snowing at 1:48 p.m. Thursday in Dublin, 1:49 if you're south of the Liffey. And there will be snow off and on until about the end of February.

By the end of it, you'll need eight reindeer to get around.

Seriously, we have threads on this forum that can give you forecasts and discussions on the short range time scale.

But I'm serious about the 1:48 p.m., give or take two hours.

Deleted User wrote: »

15:35 in Athlone.

OH well! only 1 hour 25 out, it snowed @ 14:10 for a few minutes.

up for anything

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Gulf Stream Temperature Anomaly

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/2010/12/gulf-stream-temperature-anomaly.html

Something interesting has been happening in the waters of the North Atlantic since the end of the Hurricane Season on 30th November 2010, writes Anthony McEvoy.

I'm really sad. I spent ten minutes trying to recognise the continents and country patterns on those charts only to realise at the end that the colourdy bits were the oceans and seas.

Speak Now

When you see Valentia getting to -6 you know something is up

Here are the lowest temps from 2005-2008

2005 Casement -5.6 (March)
2006 Birr -7.8 (March)
2007 Clones -6.5 (Feb)
2008 Casement -7.7 (Feb)

And when you look at the months these temps were recorded t show how pretty mild the winter months were really.

Entering Dec 2009 we could only have dreamed about the lows we would encounter over the following 12 months.
Wonder what way will 2011 swing

Wild Bill

Major divergence between what Irish Weather Online and Met Eireann are saying about Christmas Day and Stephen's Day.

Looks like a high noon shoot-out at the frozen corral! :cool:

pistolpetes11

Wild Bill wrote: »

Major divergence between what Irish Weather Online and Met Eireann are saying about Christmas Day and Stephen's Day.

Looks like a high noon shoot-out at the frozen corral! :cool:

This mornings and last night model runs are not backing the mets view

The netweather.tv site is showing the mild overrun being preceded by sleet now on the 26th, yesterday it was only rain.

Interesting times ahead

Wild Bill

Meanwhile in Sandyford.......

It has now been snowing here since this time yesterday (with a break for a few hours last night). Heavy at the moment. Nothing moving - can't get to the M50, no Luas - the authorities have given up! Dunno the depth but is was already 16cm last night; -10C during a break before the latest snow arrived sometime last night; currently -5C.

Oddly enough - the depth is still 16cm! I must have put the ruler in a wee depression last night. No wind, no drifting to explain it.

Speak Now

Wild Bill wrote: »

Oddly enough - the depth is still 16cm! I must have put the ruler in a wee depression last night. No wind, no drifting to explain it.

The snow is probably settling more compact underneath from the weight on top. More snow but same depth if you know what i mean.

Wild Bill

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

The snow is probably settling more compact underneath from the weight on top. More snow but same depth if you know what i mean.

I wondered about that - it was extremely powdery and the snow this morning had been much heavier with slightly bigger flakes! (Still falling btw:))

Harps

That happened here the other night as well, the depth actually fell after a snow shower so it must be down to the snow compacting. Theres only 18cm left here now from the 24cm on Friday even though nothings melted

Wild Bill

Harps wrote: »

That happened here the other night as well, the depth actually fell after a snow shower so it must be down to the snow compacting. Theres only 18cm left here now from the 24cm on Friday even though nothings melted

Unless it's melting from beneath, at ground level?
Pressure would rise the temp and the heat from the ground is insulated by a heavy snow cover?????