Winter 2010-2011 outlook

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

That seems to be the case since the start of January in a lot of the models, looks like the uncertainty is going to continue for the rest of January.

The models were consistent about this milder spell taking hold. The uncertainity is from day seven as to how cold it wll get. I still have my doubts about an easterly taking hold- although blocking from the north east tends to be more of a feature in February. It looks like the ukmo are going for a mid atlantic blocking ridge based on their latest update. Which means cold north westerlies, but nothing like we had in December.

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

The models were consistent about this milder spell taking hold.

Yes I know , I should of said I was referring to uncertainties in the forecasts of cold weather, mild weather does not interest me

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

The models were consistent about this milder spell taking hold. The uncertainity is from day seven as to how cold it wll get. I still have my doubts about an easterly taking hold- although blocking from the north east tends to be more of a feature in February. It looks like the ukmo are going for a mid atlantic blocking ridge based on their latest update. Which means cold north westerlies, but nothing like we had in December.

For a good few years there,an easterly eventually happened by late march or april.
The trend this winter and last is for every event to happen a month sooner or thereabouts so actually a full blown easterly in late January or early february wouldn't surprise me.

OliveOil

Deleted User wrote: »

For a good few years there,an easterly eventually happened by late march or april.
The trend this winter and last is for every event to happen a month sooner or thereabouts so actually a full blown easterly in late January or early february wouldn't surprise me.

So next winter we can look forward to some snow at the end of October :cool::cool: can't wait :D

opinion guy

OliveOil wrote: »

So next winter we can look forward to some snow at the end of October :cool::cool: can't wait :D

October is Autumn.....tschhh...don't you know anything ????:rolleyes:

opinion guy

Angelbella2011 wrote: »

Off topic: Now is Winter, there are something you need to color yourself in this dim winter- a bright color handbag for you! See the matches and know more about it! I like it well!

Um....I want to make a snappy retort to this but I can't quite figure out what it actually means......

patneve2

All eyes on ECM 12z this evening...00z develops and expands the Siberian-Scandinavian HP (expanding over us and to the North of us) with a Continental flow commencing.

GFS, on the other hand, prefers the solution of Atlantic blocking, proposing a Northerly/North Easterly.

Definitely prefer the ECM solution, we need a nice easterly. GFS evolution could be 'dangerous' as a fat HP could be over us due to the expanding vortex on greenland. I feel that the blocking anomaly over Greenland could be a thing of the past now (this process starting these days with low temps over those regions), and that if any cold does occur it'll most probably be from the East. We could easily get snowless or 'sterile' cold if the HP sits over us.

Anyway, must stress that confidence is still very low, but I really don't think that this westerly pattern we are entering now will last very long, blocking will be back.

pistolpetes11

I might be completely off here but if the Jet stream drops from its this position at +192hrs



to this position



Would the Jet stream block off any warmth form getting to us for a while ?

M.T. Cranium

This pattern reversal now ongoing is the mid-month change to milder weather that I had in my winter outlook, the set-up is pretty much what was indicated in the "index values" from past analogues. Since the past analogues just contribute individual signals to the mix, there was no real "past analogue" for December, just as this January and February will also be unique. However, the method seems to be working pretty well so far ... in fact, it made me laugh but I started to get criticism on another forum about underplaying the severe weather in December. Imagine making that critique of the forecast a day after it was issued! I'm sure most of the snow lovers on this and other forums were thinking, hope we get even half of that. Now some are complaining they got more than advertised. Really, what can I say? The methodology is so promising but there's no way that a long-range forecaster is going to predict temperatures six degrees below normal for a month, although I think anyone reading the details would see that possibility in the range of outcomes.

Now, enough about the past, what about the present and future? Is the MTC long-range forecast on track or does it need revision?

This mid-month reversal has arrived perhaps 3-4 days ahead of schedule, and seeing how strong the signal was in the index values at forecast time, I hedged somewhat by saying that the breakthrough might give a winter storm scenario at first. This phase is basically the weather of the past four days or so and there have been outbreaks of snow and sleet as well as rain but clearly the mild regime is rapidly winning this phase of the great battle of winter 2010-2011 and will be hard to dislodge right away. I would imagine that it may take about a week after the 17th to reset a colder pattern, and this will probably happen with linkage between the Greenland high and a Scandinavian high that has retrogressed from Siberia through Russia.

The outlook then is more or less unchanged, a mild spell lasting perhaps a week to ten days, then colder in stages, and a cold February with some return of wintry weather conditions likely after 20 Jan and especially by about 27 Jan onward. There's no precise information available in this method to say whether February might be another extremely cold month or just more of a 1-2 C below normal type of anomaly, but either way snow is favoured at some point. I would say watch the period around the first week of February for possible snowfalls, and mid-February for more of a battleground sort of pattern where, if it can stay cold, winter storms are possible, and if the cold relents a bit, rain would spread in from the southwest. Another cold period indicated is near the end of February and first week of March.

Finally, a very long-range detail from the research, intense storm potential will develop on two sets of dates -- 19 to 21 March, and 3-5 April. In those time periods, I would expect to find some strong lows on the map near Ireland and if they are far enough north, strong winds affecting Ireland (if they turn out to be further south, either of these could bring a late return of wintry precip). These storm dates are based on exceptionally strong combinations of two different sets of energy peaks that coincide with the full and new moons at that times.

Deep Easterly

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I might be completely off here but if the Jet stream drops from its this position at +192hrs

Would the Jet stream block off any warmth form getting to us for a while ?

The Jet Stream in that position (last chart) would more than likely bring us frequent alternations between tropical and polar air masses; neither lasting too long at any one time. More of a chance of cyclogenesis developing nearer our shores as a result. I say bring it on.

pauldry

My initial feeling for January was for a Cold Mild Cold

It think this will pan out with some hiccups and more frost than snow, though in Sligo we have had 2cm so far all last Saturday (Jan 8th) morning.

From January 20th it looks cold every time I look at charts but the charts do look different every time too. I think a frosty set up would be the safest set up to predict for the last third of January with just a few rogue showers.

This weather we got in December will not happen this month at least. I dont really know what to expect in February but if the High Pressure was to establish itself from the Atlantic there may be more dry weather followed by Wintry showers and maybe some snow before the milder weather returns mid month but that is a pure guess.

Pangea

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I started to get criticism on another forum about underplaying the severe weather in December.

Thats ridiculous, they should give credit where credit is due.

Duiske

I think it's in some people's genetic make-up to scutinize everything in an effort to find fault. You'll find though that these same people are very reluctant to open up their own forecast's to public scrutiny, or even have the ball's to make a forecast to begin with.

pistolpetes11

Would this bring us the easterly that we desire ? Also how do I know from looking at the chart if this is Cyclonic or Anti Cyclonic ?

Elmer Blooker

Its cyclonic unfortunately, low pressure to the north and high pressure down near the Azores, it has to be the other way round for the perfect cold spell.
Still, compared to what we have now I'd take it even it is way out in FI.

Min

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Would this bring us the easterly that we desire ? Also how do I know from looking at the chart if this is Cyclonic or Anti Cyclonic ?

High pressure - clockwise
Low pressure - anti-clockwise

In the top graphic we would have westerly winds.

fizzycyst

In the northern hemisphere the winds in a high pressure move clockwise, this is an anticyclone. The winds in a low pressure move anticlockwise, this is a cyclone.

please correct me if I'm mistaken here.

pistolpetes11

Runs are starting to stick with the cold now , at last !! Way out in FI I know

alfa beta

How do you get to see the real far out model charts on meteociel - when i click on 'gfs europe' it shows projected 850 temps out to 192 hours (or Friday 21st at the mo) but the chart above is for friday 28th - am i missing something really obvious?

fizzycyst

alfa beta wrote: »

How do you get to see the real far out model charts on meteociel - when i click on 'gfs europe' it shows projected 850 temps out to 192 hours (or Friday 21st at the mo) but the chart above is for friday 28th - am i missing something really obvious?

If you click on the word 'suite' just below 192h, a new page comes up with 192h-384h.

nacho libre

Look away now(unless you're a mild lover)


View PostGlacier Point, on 19 October 2010 - 20:51 , said:
Both continue to suggest that the Brewer Dobson Circulation is weakening and this decreases the potential for high latitude blocking into January and February.


December verification:

Colder than normal - correctly forecast although the depth of the cold was not.

Drier than normal - correctly forecast (England and Wales 39% of monthly average according to Philip Eden).

Pressure to be higher to the west - correctly forecast (see 500hPa plot below depicting ridges in the Pacific and Atantic).

Attached Image: dec verification z500.JPG

Moving forward, I'm very happy with our call for a much more average January temperature wise and increasingly the prospects for average or milder February.

Min

nacho libre wrote: »

Look away now(unless you're a mild lover)


View PostGlacier Point, on 19 October 2010 - 20:51 , said:
Both continue to suggest that the Brewer Dobson Circulation is weakening and this decreases the potential for high latitude blocking into January and February.


December verification:

Colder than normal - correctly forecast although the depth of the cold was not.

Drier than normal - correctly forecast (England and Wales 39% of monthly average according to Philip Eden).

Pressure to be higher to the west - correctly forecast (see 500hPa plot below depicting ridges in the Pacific and Atantic).

Attached Image: dec verification z500.JPG

Moving forward, I'm very happy with our call for a much more average January temperature wise and increasingly the prospects for average or milder February.

Sounds great, hopefully an early spring, this mild weather has been glorious.

isle of man

Min wrote: »

Sounds great, hopefully an early spring, this mild weather has been glorious.

dont you mean WET mild weather:eek:.

dear god its been wet for this week, fields are ringging in water, right bloody mess

MUSEIST

Min wrote: »

Sounds great, hopefully an early spring, this mild weather has been glorious.

The mild weather has been boring and dull. Ireland really looks ****e in this weather. Cold, frosty and crisp days during the winter and its a stunning place but with this gloom it looks like the most godforsaking depressing place on earth, it really does.:mad:

nacho libre

Min wrote: »

Sounds great, hopefully an early spring, this mild weather has been glorious.

Blasphemer:mad:


It would certainly back up Philip Eden's assertion a few weeks ago about winters that start off unusually cold staying that way for the duration of the season are the exception rather than rule. Well that maybe stating the obvious since the winters of 1962/63 and 1947 wouldn't stand out otherwise.
By the way I should point out the Glacier Point is one of the chief forecasters over on Netweather.

nacho libre

MUSEIST wrote: »

The mild weather has been boring and dull. Ireland really looks ****e in this weather. Cold, frosty and crisp days during the winter and its a stunning place but with this gloom it looks like the most godforsaking depressing place on earth, it really does.:mad:

It's just the blandness of it all that gets to me. At least if we had a wind storm it would be something interesting to observe, and the forum wouldn't be so quite either!

pistolpetes11

nacho libre wrote: »

Blasphemer:mad:


It would certainly back up Philip Eden's assertion a few weeks ago about winters that start off unusually cold staying that way for the duration of the season are the exception rather than rule. Well that maybe stating the obvious since the winters of 1962/63 and 1947 wouldn't stand out otherwise.
By the way I should point out the Glacier Point is one of the chief forecasters over on Netweather.

In what esteem would you hold his views in comparison to our very own MT,

nacho libre

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

In what esteem would you hold his views in comparison to our very own MT,

They both are highly intelligent men, who know their stuff, and whose views are highly thought of.

pistolpetes11

nacho libre wrote: »

They both are highly intelligent men, who know their stuff, and whose views are highly thought of.

At Least there seems to be a little optimism this morning over on NW in relation to a half decent cold spell from the latest model runs.

Playing football on Wednesday and Thursday evening and they felt like a mild summers evening with an extra helping of rain of course !

Im done with this mild and murky weather !

From NW
I, personally,do not find the output too bad today.A period of typically stable cool weather with frosts becoming common place.Thereafter things could become interesting as certainly the GFS and to some degree the ECM, as far as it goes, want to shift the high slightly westward and allow some serious cold incursion to slide e/se over the top of our resident high.I believe the extended ECM went out yesterday,so the METO monthly update should prove interesting reading





For me chart of the morning and beyond is FI. Look how the HP has moved to our NE. What it does after that is open to change but the signs this morming are of HP setting up and retrograde taking place. I believe we are seeing the early signs of deep winter returning. Sinking HP is NOT the percentage call, retrogression is the percentage call.

pistolpetes11

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

For me chart of the morning and beyond is FI. Look how the HP has moved to our NE. What it does after that is open to change but the signs this morming are of HP setting up and retrograde taking place. I believe we are seeing the early signs of deep winter returning. Sinking HP is NOT the percentage call, retrogression is the percentage call.

Both those charts are horrible from a cold perspective.
First one is a cloudy atlantic maratime high which would bring in rain showers.
The second one is a southerly over a long sea track meaning a lot of moisture.
However at least with the 2nd one,theres a lot of Waa [warm air advection] into scandi which might encourage that high up there.
It's a lot of straw clutching though as theres a lot of Waa into much of Europe in that chart too meaning theres no surface cold out East to advect over to us.
What that means is you would need a roaring Easterly for a week or more before you even begin to see some worthwhile cold air reach Ireland.
It's definitely looking like thats at least 3 weeks away if it happens at all,putting it closer to the 2nd week in february.
A lot of bland to get through in the meantime.

Regarding a cool down with a high over us in a week or two,I don't know why people get excited over that kind of thing.
They use language like "at least it will be cooler"
Does cool cloudy weather with little night frost excite some people?
They should get out more!