Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Birdnuts

maquiladora wrote: »

But maybe it will come true if its in this thread.

#

I can't wait that long - already suffering some withdrawl symptoms like wearing too much clothes and drinking ice cold beer!!;)

mickger844posts

Its amazing to read back MT's Winter Forecast. He was on the money with his accuracy, called it spot on so far. Pure Genius.

pistolpetes11

The models seems to really have the Atlantic in Full control for the next while ,

This is the best I can find and its so far out in FI , that its hardly worth posting !

jamesoc

Kenring wrote: »

As I said previously, between 10th-17th milder temperatures. The 17th brings a further downward change in solar levels resulting again in colder temperatures that, with the exception of Xmas day, may continue to the end of the month. On 20th the moon is the furthest north and brings another cold lunar influence. My analysis was that the coolest periods would be, for December, 1st-2nd, 6th-10th, 17th-24th, and 26th-31st. And relatively milder periods by this analysis would be 3rd-5th, 11th-16th, and 25th. The coldest periods are around the lunar northern declinations.

Not looking good is it Ken

jamesoc

Kenring wrote: »

Very cold, snowing, followed by a dry spell of about 10-12 days or so.

Well at least we have something to look foreward to . ( Kens New Years Day forecast )

davidsr20

When is the next cold snap expected in jan?

BEASTERLY

I may be wrong but The ECM is showing a strongly negative NAO in FI. I know the high is progged to be in a very unfavourable position but at this range I wouldn't get to worried about that, it may shift north in the next few runs, and M.T said there is a possibility of the cold returning around the 4/5th of Jan and his December forecast was unbelievebly accurate.

At least the the Atlantic isn't forecast to return to mild zonality by the ECM.;)

pistolpetes11

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I may be wrong but The ECM is showing a strongly negative NAO in FI. I know the high is progged to be in a very unfavourable position but at this range I wouldn't get to worried about that, it may shift north in the next few runs, and M.T said there is a possibility of the cold returning around the 4/5th of Jan and his December forecast was unbelievebly accurate.

At least the the Atlantic isn't forecast to return to mild zonality by the ECM.;)

Sorry Beasterly ,

A strongly negative NAO would mean what ?

Is this the high that seems to be allowing all the cold air slip into eastern europe and keeping it away from us and UK ?

Cheers

Discodog

Well I give up on your forecasters. I watched the 6.20 RTE weather & they were adamant that tomorrow would be a wet day in Galway. Now, only 6 hours later, I discover that virtually every other forecast has tomorrow being dry.

snow ghost

thetonynator wrote: »

As i posted in the other thread, genius!

I have to agree with you - M.T. is a genius, BIG time. All my respect and more

BEASTERLY

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Sorry Beasterly ,

A strongly negative NAO would mean what ?

Is this the high that seems to be allowing all the cold air slip into eastern europe and keeping it away from us and UK ?

Cheers

Yea that's basically it. A negative NAO is when the atlatic goes quite so to speak(last winter and this one so far).

Today's ECM shows the high close to out west feeding in mediocre north-westerlies, but that is ten days away so literally anything could happen.

If the ECM did start showing mild zonality(low after low after low) I would suggest that we all buy shares in a pharmacutical company that produces Prozac in the shape of snowflakes:D

opr

Extreme FI but still :pac:




Opr

Kippure

opr wrote: »

Extreme FI but still :pac:




Opr

A good example of whats to come for us. Wrap-up:eek:

A193

Random, but any sign of another cold snap/snow in like lasts Janurarys?

pistolpetes11

Again its FI ,

But

BEASTERLY

opr wrote: »

Extreme FI but still :pac:




Opr

This would bring possibly one of the mildest january days ever recorded in Ireland I imagine. Very humid air in a direct flow from equatorial regions.

BEASTERLY

Kippure wrote: »

A good example of whats to come for us. Wrap-up:eek:

That chart is showing extreme mild, if you wrap up at all you might cook:D

EDIT: I just realised that chart updates automatically! I'm a bit slow today

ninebeanrows

We have a dead Atlantic still, it just doesn't want to kick off it would seem but things are getting abit messy to our north.

The theme is a cool down from Day 5 with a return to night frosts and very cold days but at the moment so sign of a clean block developing to our to deliver a proper blow of cold or snow just at the moment, however would not take too much to bring in some sig cold again.

WolfeIRE

Latest GFS showing a smiliar pattern from late this weekend to what we saw in mid December. High pressure building over Scandanavia and Greenland with LP system dragging down a cold arctic martime airmass by late Monday and into Tuesday.

Waiting to see how far west this airmass extends as like the coming weekend the coldest air may centred over eastern britain.



UPDATE:
At day 7 an atlantic LP system seeks to push ENE and is having a game of tug and war with the colder airmass. Won;t comment further as this is well into FI and all talk is hypthetical and subject to change

Redsunset

Wow look at that cold atlantic.A couple of months ago i posted up that i was looking for the below sst anomaly to be somewhat similar to this winter,and she ain't too bad at reflecting that cool path across the atlantic.

This is what i posted,

Several years ago scientists made a breakthrough when they confirmed through the use of computer models that part of this climatic memory driving the NAO lies in the deeper ocean temperatures of the Atlantic and changes in these temperatures are largely responsible for variations in the NAO. Mark Rodwell, a climate researcher at the Met Office in the United Kingdom, was one of the researchers who made the connection. Based on this earlier work, he is now using similar models to make forecasts on the sign of NAO nearly one year in advance.


“Though this is largely a statistical relationship, there is a reason behind our forecasts. The idea is that if you want to make a forecast for the winter, then you need to look at sea surface temperatures of the winter before that,” says Rodwell.

The NAO is responsible for the path of strong storms that pass across the Atlantic, and these strong storms influence the temperatures of the ocean. By the spring of each year, the NAO has left a deep mark on the temperatures of the Atlantic.

During the summer, these ocean temperatures are largely preserved because a relatively thin layer of water heated by the sun covers the ocean beneath like a thermal blanket.

When the following winter rolls around, the warm layer is removed, revealing the sea temperatures from the previous spring, which in turn affect air pressure over the Atlantic and the next NAO.

---

Right so apart from the obvious change from El Nino to La Nina it looks very similar as a whole but more extreme this time round,perhaps due to the La Nina.

Redsunset

Forecast for Dec,Jan,Feb,was done in Oct and i forgot about it in my bookmarks.

Pangea

Nice to see the Met uk saying this for the North of Ireland.

UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Jan 2011 to Saturday 29 Jan 2011:
The second half of January should keep a colder-than-average theme, with temperatures in much of Scotland and Northern Ireland likely to be well below the average for the period,

dfbemt

WolfeIRE wrote: »

let's hope that councils are planning to acquire salt and grity supplies in advance this time.

dfbemt wrote: »

This is now being handled by the NRA !! If you thought last year was badly coordinated wait till you see this shower (no pun intended)

Wild Bill wrote: »

Reality check: Compared to the Local Authorities the NRA operates like a Swiss watch. :cool:

WolfeIRE wrote: »

we can give out about them all we want but on the flipside they have delivered plenty for Ireland. I can now drive to Dublin in less than 3 hrs compared to 4 to 4.5 a few years ago.

And we still managed to run out of salt...........

thetonynator

dfbemt wrote: »

And we still managed to run out of salt...........

After the most ridiculously cold and snowy period in ireland in a long long time. The councils and NRA did a very good job, they cant do every road, but they did very well. The amount of giving out that is done about them is ridiculous, they handled the situation well under the circumstances.

WolfeIRE

Published at 10:00, 3 January
(Next update at 10:00, 10 January)
Written by Rob McElwee

Summary

No return of the block - normal winter resumes

The deep cold and snow was caused by a big weather pattern staying in one place. Normally we have a series of highs and lows moves slowly from west to east so we never stick to one weather type for more than three days or so. The weather will see normal variation over the month.
Monday 3 January 2011 to Sunday 9 January 2011
Arctic to Atlantic and back to Arctic

The start of the week, though cold, is also cloudy so the freeze of a true Arctic airmass is mitigated somewhat. We get a slight frost and not much sun.
Monday and Tuesday sees the weather switch to Atlantic, bringing rain. Some hill snow and road ice is likely. Midweek brings heavy rain to middle Britain and the week's end a swing back to an Arctic northerly with snow showers for Scotland and sun for the rest.
Temperatures both by day and night will remain below average with Thursday and Friday nights increasingly frosty. But then both days should be sunny for the majority.

Monday 10 January 2011 to Sunday 16 January 2011
Cold but not extreme

With a mainly northwesterly airflow, northwestern parts of the UK are expected to be windy in the first part of the week, with wintry showers and an associated risk of ice.
Later in the week, there are indications that winds will become generally more southwesterly, leading to an increased chance of wet and breezy conditions for most areas.
The consequences on temperature are obvious - a cold start but a rise to near or even above normal levels with the incoming southwesterly wind.
Fog is an early week potential, except for northern UK but so is plenty of sunshine.

Monday 17 January 2011 to Sunday 30 January 2011
Grinding to a halt but only temporarily

The indications for the end of the month are for a split across the UK of weather type: Northeast versus southwest.
The northeast looks colder than average, duller than average and wetter than average. That could mean some snow.
Conversely, the southwest, should be "warmer" or about average, sunshine about average and rainfall about average.

Next week

If the last week is an indicator then the pattern is blocking again which will bring us either deep cold and snow again.

Monthly forecasting

The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

Coeurdepirate

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Based on nothing more than a paraniod hunch, I think this coming winter will be dry, mild and dull with frequent ridging lodging to our south.

Oh, hindsight :rolleyes:

WolfeIRE

BBC MONTHLY OUTLOOK

Summary

A mild incursion then maybe cold again

"Wet and windy" is a phrase not used much this winter but I think will be employed for the next week or so.
Confidence is very high for the change to this mild, wet and windy weather but by the first week of February, when colder weather is again suggested, the confidence has dropped to "low".
Monday 10 January 2011 to Sunday 16 January 2011
This feels normal for a British winter

There will be ice and fresh Highland snow to start the week and the ground in Northern Ireland and Scotland remains very cold and at least in Scotland, partly snow covered.
Scotland and Northern Ireland stay cold until Wednesday, then join the rest of the UK.
England and Wales turn wet, windy and mild during Monday, briefly reverts to cold and sunny on Tuesday then is determinedly wet, windy and mild, i.e 12C from Wednesday.
Expect flood warnings and gale warnings.

Monday 17 January 2011 to Sunday 23 January 2011
So it should get colder again

Which, with medium to high confidence, it does. The wind should swing from southwest to northwest and then stay west or north of west.
No more double digit temperatures this week.
The rainfall indications are interesting when combined with sunshine predictions: It all suggests to me streams of showers across the Irish Sea onto and beyond the Irish Sea coasts in for example, north Wales, the Midlands and northern England.
Sunshine looks better than average in south Wales, southwest England and surprisingly northwest Scotland.

Monday 24 January 2011 to Sunday 6 February 2011
More of the same - probably

The northwest quarter wind prevails but surprisingly rainfall is above average for England and Wales and well above in eastern Scotland.
Temperatures are well below average in Scotland and Northern Ireland whilst sunshine is well above average for northern Scotland but below in the Midlands and northeast England.
As I like to try and fit pressure patterns to these indications, I suggest a slow-moving depression in the North Sea.

I think I'll write those monthly outlooks for the BBC.
It will make no difference ,they're so inaccurate and change so often that they are a waste of bandwidth.

nacho libre

Deleted User wrote: »

I think I'll write those monthly outlooks for the BBC.
It will make no difference ,they're so inaccurate and change so often that they are a waste of bandwidth.

They have been all over the place since late December. However they were remarkably consistent from late November up until the end of December about severe cold taking hold and persisting despite model wavering.

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

They have been all over the place since late December.

That seems to be the case since the start of January in a lot of the models, looks like the uncertainty is going to continue for the rest of January.