Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Flan_Da_Man125

well form looking at the models! there hinting colder weather as that high tries to move west! after weekend into nxt week is when we will no for certain where this high is going! MT has been hinting for colder weather. so keep the faith

Wild Bill

Kenring wrote: »

I think the northern declinations are the best potential times for snow, and these have been(and to come) 23 Nov, 21 Dec, 17 Jan, 13 Feb, 12 Mar and 9 April.

Well, that 17th January slot certainly didn't work out

It means after the second week of April winter should be in the past.

A not uncommon occurrence!

Wild Bill

Just to note, the midlands countryside (on the M7 from Newbridge to Roscrea) looked beautiful this morning in a deep white frost and clear blue sky - looked like it had snowed.

I don't mind dry frosty weather if the temp would stay between -10 at dawn and -1C in the afternoon!

Brenireland

nah it wasnt one of the heaviest frost we have had here this morning.

Wild Bill

Brenireland wrote: »

nah it wasnt one of the heaviest frost we have had here this morning.

Nobody said it was.

Kenring

Wild Bill wrote: »

Well, that 17th January slot certainly didn't work out

No, but perhaps the others did. Plus there's always the solar factor.
Last winter's NDs were 30/12/09, 27/01/10, 23/02/10 and 23/03/10.

Big Daddy Cool

beautiful morning here in north meath, cold crisp and sunny , think there could be potential for significant spells of sunshiiiiine today .

Kenring

Kenring wrote: »

No, but perhaps the others did. Plus there's always the solar factor.
Last winter's NDs were 30/12/09, 27/01/10, 23/02/10 and 23/03/10.

They may have been cold,I don't know but I suspect your methodology is fine,it's just that to be memorable and to verify,it needs other factors that cause cold to fall into place aswell.
Theres no point as a cold lover having those nd's not coinciding with a jetstream south of Ireland for instance.

Kenring

Deleted User wrote: »

They may have been cold,I don't know but I suspect your methodology is fine,it's just that to be memorable and to verify,it needs other factors that cause cold to fall into place aswell.
Theres no point as a cold lover having those nd's not coinciding with a jetstream south of Ireland for instance.

I agree, and the wind should pick up on the weekend and again around the middle of next week. There is a possiblility of a temperature drop on the weekend followed by snow on Monday. The causes would be Saturday's perigee, the increased magnitude of the tides of the atmosphere and the increase in turbulence created by the lunar equinox on Sunday, all which contribute to skew the Van Allen belt.

Flan_Da_Man125

next wednesday on this chart showing high moving west allowing wet weather back.

isle of man

how ever much i like snow, or should i say love snow,
this weather we having is so bloody nice,
lost the coat today, and there is some heat in that sun, you can see it cooking the ground with the steam coming off it,

Pangea

isle of man wrote: »

how ever much i like snow, or should i say love snow,
this weather we having is so bloody nice,
lost the coat today, and there is some heat in that sun, you can see it cooking the ground with the steam coming off it,

Cripes must be warm there :pac:
Frost stayed around all day here, wont be cooking the sausages on the pavement just yet
Great weather.

Godge

Wild Bill wrote: »

Just to note, the midlands countryside (on the M7 from Newbridge to Roscrea) looked beautiful this morning in a deep white frost and clear blue sky - looked like it had snowed.

I don't mind dry frosty weather if the temp would stay between -10 at dawn and -1C in the afternoon!

Yes, was travelling on the M4 through Enfield/Kinnegad early this morning and it was the same!

oisingeogho

shows high going east in the last few runs at meteociel.fr
what does that mean?

pistolpetes11

oisingeogho wrote: »

shows high going east in the last few runs at meteociel.fr
what does that mean?

When I asked where would we like to see the high go from a cold and snow lovers viewpoint :

nacho libre wrote: »

to go to the north west or north east

it's not going to the northwest because of the polar vortex over Greenland and the jet stream up north.

it is possible the high could link up with a siberian high that could bring in even colder air eventually.


however some of the models are hinting at the high possibly sinking south east eventually, which would allow the atlantic to power back in. at the moment the high is on a tour of ireland and uk because lower pressure over parts of europe is stopping it from sinking

Now the high seems to be going northeast in the latest depths of FI , over Scandinavia in this chart :



Now Im not sure if this is what we would need as a precursor to a decent cold spell but the upper temps look like they will be take a bit of a rise when the high does go up there :

thetonynator

It'll need to go further NE than shown in FI for a decent easterly to come through.

MiNdGaM3

Clutching at straws somewhat (not to say I'm not enjoying the current weather) but it wouldn't take a whole lot of change for this to become quite a potent cold and snowy blast!

Elmer Blooker

The February weather will now be more interesting than ever with a general election now a real possibility around the third week of Feb?
Imagine the effect that a Dec like freeze would have on the turnout! :eek:
Lots of chart watching ahead.

Rebelbrowser

BBC monthly outlook is not good for cold lovers but it seems out of synch with what MTC and those on Netweather are saying this morning......that cold may well be on the way from early Feb on?

Published at 10:00, 24 January
(Next update at 10:00, 31 January)
Written by Nina Ridge

Summary

The cold hangs on for a little longer

What a relief this last week has been. Its been a long time since we have managed a week without any weather warnings being issued for snow, rain or wind across the UK. The quieter theme looks like it will continue for a little while longer but the milder air from the Atlantic is always trying to re-establish itself, and as we head into February it may begin to win the battle.
Monday 24 January 2011 to Sunday 30 January 2011
Cold and cloudy

A mainly settled week as high pressure remains near the UK. Saying that though it will remain rather cloudy with a few bands of rain spreading south at the beginning of the week. Overnight frosts will remain a risk during the week and more so by the end of the week when the winds start coming off the cool continent, giving perhaps the odd snowflake for some of us in the east.


Monday 31 January 2011 to Sunday 6 February 2011
Change of the month, change in the weather?

The high pressure looks set to finally move east towards the continent during the week allowing the milder southwesterlies to begin to make an appearance again. This though will also bring back the wind and rain especially in the south west, where despite the milder air it may still feel rather cool. The transition can be a slow process though as we found out last month so it may take a few days before the milder air reaches all parts of the UK.


Monday 7 February 2011 to Sunday 20 February 2011
The westerlies stay in charge

The Atlantic seems set to stay in charge of our weather as we enter mid February keeping the weather fairly unsettled. Rainfall amounts and temperatures look set to be close too or just above average for the time of year, which will help keep the nightime frost at bay. However with the cold dense air never to far away in the continent we can't put away our winter coats just yet.

Harps

BBC have changed their forecast numerous times throughout the winter so I wouldnt pay too much attention to that

patneve2

Looks like this Irish-GB high pressure has become a semi-permanent feature...when we get out of it I fear it might just be an atlantic flow with the cold still concentrated in SEastern Europe...anyway, we still have the whole of February so a decent cold spell is still possible...

thetonynator

I don't know about everyone but once it gets to the middle of feb, i'll have had enough, knowing that any cold won't ever come close to december by then, most people will prob just be looking forward to spring!

nacho libre

well given the the depth of cold last December was not seen here since 1890 those holding out for a repeat of it were always likely going to be disappointed. the more i think about this, this winter seems to be following the same pattern as last winter, in that once the severe cold finally relented, due to a proper atlantic clean out, it hasn't **so far** come back- despite us coming tantalisingly close early in January.
Anyway I'll take snow at anytime in February- indeed if this la nina winter follows tradition, then even if the bbc monthly outlook is correct (there is a possibility their outlook will change in the coming days if there is a polar vortex split - and it moves in the right direction) we could well see a cold end to February. for some that's no good, but i will never turn down a snowfall because we have to go long enough without it in any given year!

Pangea

Dissapointed theres no signs of any real cold in February now

thetonynator

thetonynator wrote: »

I don't know about everyone but once it gets to the middle of feb, i'll have had enough, knowing that any cold won't ever come close to december by then, most people will prob just be looking forward to spring!

The cold easterly of february '91 was from roughly the 2nd week.
It went on to about the 20th cold wise and snow wise.
A good 8 or 10 inches in Arklow iirc

Then as now,the bbc graphics underestimated and ignored irish sea streamers and by golly there were a lot of them.
Feb 1991 was On a par with the late november spell early december 2010 I thought but passed out by the pre Xmas snow 2010.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qc49oYbAIr4

Also there was no northern blocking with that 2 to 3 week spell,just a huge 1050 scandi high.
There was actually low pressure over greenland

Iancar29

Deleted User wrote: »

The cold easterly of february '91 was from roughly the 2nd week.
It went on to about the 20th cold wise and snow wise.
A good 8 or 10 inches in Arklow iirc

Then as now,the bbc graphics underestimated and ignored irish sea streamers and by golly there were a lot of them.
Feb 1991 was On a par with the late november spell early december 2010 I thought but passed out by the pre Xmas snow 2010.


Also there was no northern blocking with that 2 to 3 week spell,just a huge 1050 scandi high.
There was actually low pressure over greenland

Bring on a repeat i shall sure say! :D:D

BEASTERLY

Iancar29 wrote: »

Bring on a repeat i shall sure say! :D:D

Ah here, dont be getting my hopes up!

Iancar29

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Ah here, dont be getting my hopes up!

Well if i dont get u goin im sure we will be seeing a "Possible Feb. 91 Winter Storm Repeat " Thread by a certain person! ..... We all know who this is!

patneve2

Would love a nice, elongated Scandi high dragging in Siberian air in a brisk Easterly flow, and see those lovely over-shooting cb clouds bubbling up over the Irish Sea, dumping inch after inch of powder:D

nacho libre

You might get your wish next October if the cfs charts are to be believed:pac: