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Winter 2010-2011 outlook

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Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    Major divergence between what Irish Weather Online and Met Eireann are saying about Christmas Day and Stephen's Day.

    Looks like a high noon shoot-out at the frozen corral! :cool:

    Well, Met Eireann blinked first! They have put the "strong thaw" back by 36 hours - into Stephen's Day! :cool:


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Well now ,

    Is this the beginning of the Siberian express looking to come into town ?

    Ding dong I say ,

    O happy Christmas to all you and yours folks

    gens-0-0-192.png?18


  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭isle of man


    that dont look as cold as the last cold spell we had


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭dexter647


    Well now ,

    Is this the beginning of the Siberian express looking to come into town ?

    Ding dong I say ,

    O happy Christmas to all you and yours folks

    gens-0-0-192.png?18

    Queue the rocky music:D:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Well now ,

    Is this the beginning of the Siberian express looking to come into town ?

    192 hours + control run = probably not going to happen :pac:

    Still though, another cold spell early in the new year is likely I think.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    192 hours + control run = probably not going to happen :pac:

    Still though, another cold spell early in the new year is likely I think.

    Yeah , should of really went into the FI charts , but hay its Chrrrrrrriiiiiisssssttttttmmmmmaaaassssssssss !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭opinion guy


    So the news is telling me to expect a thaw tomorrow and warning of flooding.

    I remain skeptical. What do you pros think?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Wait 24 hours and see?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    So the news is telling me to expect a thaw tomorrow and warning of flooding.

    I remain skeptical. What do you pros think?

    Check out the thaw/flooding thread on here...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭opinion guy


    mike65 wrote: »
    Wait 24 hours and see?

    I'm impatient dammit:D


    errr also this is the outlook thread....not the wait and see thread :rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    For the last few runs the models have been playing with the idea of spewing cold out of the arctic spewing out some cold air into the first week of 2011. Both the GFS and ECM have been showing this but of course at this time frame it's still a long-shot.

    And if it does happen the cold air may hit somewhere else in the mid-latitudes and not us but hey, it's possibility and any more cold is really just a bonus.

    Heres some examples:

    GFS:
    140861.png

    ECM:
    140862.GIF


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Wetternzentral GSF showing the Atlantic will take charge again after a brief high pressure inspired SE air flow later this week.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    GSF always goes in to default atlantic mode in fi, but even discounting that model, it would seem the snow is gone for a good while. it maybe that Stuart Rampling and Joe Bastardi, who were wrong about December being near average temperature wise, are right about the core of the cold being over the near continent from now on. Well it's early to write off January as a whole, but the current models projections don't look great for the foreseeable future it has to be said. Hopefully they'll pick up on a new trend of a high retrogressing towards Greenland in the next few days.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    Kenring wrote: »
    December brings sub-zero temperatures, except around 19th and 25th.

    - I'd call the - 12.7c I recorded on the morning of the 25th fairly sub-zero, I believe most, if not all of the country was sub-zero too.
    Kenring wrote: »
    Xmas Day should be dry, cloudy but fairly mild and unlikely to be white,

    'Fairly mild' - I think it got to -8 here in the afternoon, I wouldn't call that mild, would you? Most of the country had a white Christmas in terms of lying snow.
    Kenring wrote: »
    becoming colder around New year.

    It is hard to imagine it being colder than the record low temps recorded throughout December at many of ME's stations around the country in December or in the past week.

    We'll see, but I expect this to be as wrong as the rest of your forecast Ken.

    Btw, I keep hearing that the local radio station Mid-West are going to give you your 'p45' as you never predicted the December extreme weather we had here in Mayo, is this true?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭opinion guy


    snow ghost wrote: »
    Btw, I keep hearing that the local radio station Mid-West are going to give you your 'p45' as you never predicted the December extreme weather we had here in Mayo, is this true?


    Ok can I say something here ?

    I come to this thread because its interesting. I like to look at the pretty pictures that I don't understand. I like to read the information the knowledgeable people here dispense. I don't know or particularly care who the different people are. Think of me as a fascinated, though relatively clueless visitor.

    But I am increasingly noticing some seemingly personal squabbles/sniping like this above apparently is. And, as a visitor to your fine forum, I must say I find it very offputting. I really wish ye would leave it out of an otherwise fascinating and stimulating thread.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    The ECM model which is the one that Met Eireann largely defers to for medium range forecasts up to 5 days is showing a strong Atlantic influence out to weds next week.

    To watch the pattern click here

    http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

    Click "Précharger" to load all the grapics and then "anim" below it to animate the week.

    Hirlam shows rain until monday teatime (mouseover down the list of the times once it loads)

    http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,418

    Jet stream setup shows Jet Stream blocking the cold crap into Europe by friday

    http://www.woeurope.eu/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=eu&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=jeps&HH=108&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

    Thank feck for that, it will take a few weeks for the price of Heating Oil to come down to something that willl not kill people from the cold :(


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You can say that again, the oil tankers haven't left the road around this area!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    Ok can I say something here ?

    I come to this thread because its interesting. I like to look at the pretty pictures that I don't understand. I like to read the information the knowledgeable people here dispense. I don't know or particularly care who the different people are. Think of me as a fascinated, though relatively clueless visitor.

    But I am increasingly noticing some seemingly personal squabbles/sniping like this above apparently is. And, as a visitor to your fine forum, I must say I find it very offputting. I really wish ye would leave it out of an otherwise fascinating and stimulating thread.

    What exactly is 'personal squabbles/sniping' about my post?

    I have been told on numerous occassions that the local raido station Mid West - the presenter Paul Claffey to be precise - is apparently 'gunning' for Ken because he forecast ( he does pieces on mid West ) was so wrong regarding December and that he has said on air that he intends to give him his p45.

    If you don't want people to mention such weather related media stories or question forecasts posted here that is your perogative, but don't try and demean others' points of view as 'personal squabbles/sniping' to justify your own sensitivity.

    If John Eagleton came here and posted a December forecast and was apparently being given his p45 by a local radio station I would be happy to comment on it, I don't see why you think Ken should be immune from such discussion? Perhaps you could explain?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    The ECM model which is the one that Met Eireann largely defers to for medium range forecasts up to 5 days is showing a strong Atlantic influence out to weds next week.

    To watch the pattern click here

    http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

    Click "Précharger" to load all the grapics and then "anim" below it to animate the week.

    Hirlam shows rain until monday teatime (mouseover down the list of the times once it loads)

    http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,418

    Jet stream setup shows Jet Stream blocking the cold crap into Europe by friday

    http://www.woeurope.eu/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=eu&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=jeps&HH=108&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

    Thank feck for that, it will take a few weeks for the price of Heating Oil to come down to something that willl not kill people from the cold :(

    Should be that wet atlantic crap till next wen:) then it gets cold and dry before another blast might hit us the first week in Jan but thats well in F1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,945 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Hirlam shows rain until monday teatime (mouseover down the list of the times once it loads)

    http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,418

    Excellent link. Is there any way of zooming on Ireland ?. This is what I have been looking for !


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 915 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    Discodog wrote: »
    Excellent link. Is there any way of zooming on Ireland ?. This is what I have been looking for !

    Just zoom the whole page by pressing the Ctrl and + buttons at the same time.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Time to confirm what I've been hinting at here and in the daily forecast thread.

    My long-range seasonal outlook calls for colder than normal temperatures for most of the winter months, and higher than normal snowall amounts.

    Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.

    The January outlook calls for this cold to deepen for part of the month before a brief reversal indicated by some of the research index values. Therefore the month may feature some major winter storms mid-month as this pattern reversal begins. Despite the milder end, the month is likely to continue to average below normal by about the same amount as December, 1-2 C and possibly more.

    February was less conclusive from the research index values but unless the January reversal is highly energetic, could see the blocking redeveloping and leading to a colder than normal February as well.

    Given the strength of cold in the outlook and the dependence of mean winter temperatures on snow cover near the lower end of the spectrum, one cannot rule out a sort of near-extreme or even extreme outcome, since mean monthly temperatures below 2.0 tend to promote continuous snow cover and therefore a fairly easy slide down to sub-freezing values from the same air masses as are present for 2-3 C.

    In other words, I'm predicting a cold winter with lots of snow, that could become an epic winter. Stay tuned.

    One other detail to note, the storm frequency from my research should be on a fairly well-modulated 3.5-day cycle with stronger events every seven days or so (this is not exact so it won't work out to the same day every week). The stronger events are likely to produce their share of slow-moving but deep "Channel" or French lows promoting a strong east wind and outbreaks of snow. One of the better scenarios I foresee for snowfall comes with the December full moon and "northern max" event of 21 December. This is bound to produce an intense storm over western Europe and I am giving something like 2-1 odds for this to be a cold weather storm event with at least some snow or sleet in the mix for Ireland, whereas if the pattern happens to be stuck on mild then, look for a very mild and windy sort of event followed by much colder weather.

    In general, through the mid-winter period, the stormy episodes will fall at full and new moons, and approximately mid-way between them with a second set of high-energy peaks. This pattern will continue into late winter but with the secondary energy peaks decoupling from the primary (full/new) this gives a more frequent distribution of storms that, if coupled with a cold pattern in February, could lead to a steady parade of disturbances around the southern flanks of blocking high pressure to the north and northeast.

    Anyone interested in a more detailed forecast could find one later today on Net-weather posted by my research associate and friend, Blast from the Past as he is known to the weather forum world. That will be UK-centric but after all, the winter patterns are bound to be quite similar, and the general theme appears to be cold winning out over mild again this winter.

    Looks like this pattern could be setting up gradually later this month, and I would not be surprised if there is some snow even in late November.


    As i posted in the other thread, genius!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 915 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    As i posted in the other thread, genius!

    Thanks for that thetonynator, what was the date of that legendary prediction again?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Thanks for that thetonynator, what was the date of that legendary prediction again?

    15th of November.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Thats the way uh-hu uh-huh I like it, uh-huh uh-huh... :cool:

    2eyymnl.png

    I know it's not going to happen, but it's nice to see the snowfests back in the FI charts again already. :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    I know it's not going to happen, but it's nice to see the snowfests back in the FI charts again already. :pac:



    think we have a thread for that range of forecasting!!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    think we have a thread for that range of forecasting!!!

    But maybe it will come true if its in this thread. :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 915 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    Thats the way uh-hu uh-huh I like it, uh-huh uh-huh... :cool:

    2eyymnl.png

    I know it's not going to happen, but it's nice to see the snowfests back in the FI charts again already. :pac:

    Yeah sick of this heat already, have had to move to the furthest part of the room from the fire :pac: Waiting for FI will be worse than waiting for the spell just past at 120hrs.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭opinion guy


    But maybe it will come true if its in this thread. :p

    Its the magic of the thread!!!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    But maybe it will come true if its in this thread. :p

    Always the optimist . . :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,771 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    But maybe it will come true if its in this thread. :p
    #

    I can't wait that long - already suffering some withdrawl symptoms like wearing too much clothes and drinking ice cold beer!!;)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,471 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Its amazing to read back MT's Winter Forecast. He was on the money with his accuracy, called it spot on so far. Pure Genius.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    The models seems to really have the Atlantic in Full control for the next while ,

    This is the best I can find and its so far out in FI , that its hardly worth posting !

    gens-0-0-360.png?18


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 57 ✭✭jamesoc


    Kenring wrote: »
    As I said previously, between 10th-17th milder temperatures. The 17th brings a further downward change in solar levels resulting again in colder temperatures that, with the exception of Xmas day, may continue to the end of the month. On 20th the moon is the furthest north and brings another cold lunar influence. My analysis was that the coolest periods would be, for December, 1st-2nd, 6th-10th, 17th-24th, and 26th-31st. And relatively milder periods by this analysis would be 3rd-5th, 11th-16th, and 25th. The coldest periods are around the lunar northern declinations.

    Not looking good is it Ken :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 57 ✭✭jamesoc


    Kenring wrote: »
    Very cold, snowing, followed by a dry spell of about 10-12 days or so.

    Well at least we have something to look foreward to ;) . ( Kens New Years Day forecast )


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  • Registered Users Posts: 769 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    When is the next cold snap expected in jan?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    I may be wrong but The ECM is showing a strongly negative NAO in FI. I know the high is progged to be in a very unfavourable position but at this range I wouldn't get to worried about that, it may shift north in the next few runs, and M.T said there is a possibility of the cold returning around the 4/5th of Jan and his December forecast was unbelievebly accurate.

    At least the the Atlantic isn't forecast to return to mild zonality by the ECM.;)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    I may be wrong but The ECM is showing a strongly negative NAO in FI. I know the high is progged to be in a very unfavourable position but at this range I wouldn't get to worried about that, it may shift north in the next few runs, and M.T said there is a possibility of the cold returning around the 4/5th of Jan and his December forecast was unbelievebly accurate.

    At least the the Atlantic isn't forecast to return to mild zonality by the ECM.;)

    Sorry Beasterly ,

    A strongly negative NAO would mean what ?

    Is this the high that seems to be allowing all the cold air slip into eastern europe and keeping it away from us and UK ?

    Cheers


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,945 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    Well I give up on your forecasters. I watched the 6.20 RTE weather & they were adamant that tomorrow would be a wet day in Galway. Now, only 6 hours later, I discover that virtually every other forecast has tomorrow being dry.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    As i posted in the other thread, genius!

    I have to agree with you - M.T. is a genius, BIG time. All my respect and more


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Sorry Beasterly ,

    A strongly negative NAO would mean what ?

    Is this the high that seems to be allowing all the cold air slip into eastern europe and keeping it away from us and UK ?

    Cheers

    Yea that's basically it. A negative NAO is when the atlatic goes quite so to speak(last winter and this one so far).

    Today's ECM shows the high close to out west feeding in mediocre north-westerlies, but that is ten days away so literally anything could happen.

    If the ECM did start showing mild zonality(low after low after low) I would suggest that we all buy shares in a pharmacutical company that produces Prozac in the shape of snowflakes:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,267 ✭✭✭opr


    Extreme FI but still :pac:


    Rtavn3001.png

    Opr


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    opr wrote: »
    Extreme FI but still :pac:


    Rtavn3001.png

    Opr

    A good example of whats to come for us. Wrap-up:eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 178 ✭✭A193


    Random, but any sign of another cold snap/snow in like lasts Janurarys?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Again its FI ,

    But

    11010200_2806.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    opr wrote: »
    Extreme FI but still :pac:


    Rtavn3001.png

    Opr

    This would bring possibly one of the mildest january days ever recorded in Ireland I imagine. Very humid air in a direct flow from equatorial regions. :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Kippure wrote: »
    A good example of whats to come for us. Wrap-up:eek:

    That chart is showing extreme mild, if you wrap up at all you might cook:D

    EDIT: I just realised that chart updates automatically! I'm a bit slow today :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    We have a dead Atlantic still, it just doesn't want to kick off it would seem but things are getting abit messy to our north.

    The theme is a cool down from Day 5 with a return to night frosts and very cold days but at the moment so sign of a clean block developing to our to deliver a proper blow of cold or snow just at the moment, however would not take too much to bring in some sig cold again.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Latest GFS showing a smiliar pattern from late this weekend to what we saw in mid December. High pressure building over Scandanavia and Greenland with LP system dragging down a cold arctic martime airmass by late Monday and into Tuesday.

    Waiting to see how far west this airmass extends as like the coming weekend the coldest air may centred over eastern britain.

    airpressure.png

    UPDATE:
    At day 7 an atlantic LP system seeks to push ENE and is having a game of tug and war with the colder airmass. Won;t comment further as this is well into FI and all talk is hypthetical and subject to change


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    sst_anom.gif

    Wow look at that cold atlantic.A couple of months ago i posted up that i was looking for the below sst anomaly to be somewhat similar to this winter,and she ain't too bad at reflecting that cool path across the atlantic.

    This is what i posted,

    Several years ago scientists made a breakthrough when they confirmed through the use of computer models that part of this climatic memory driving the NAO lies in the deeper ocean temperatures of the Atlantic and changes in these temperatures are largely responsible for variations in the NAO. Mark Rodwell, a climate researcher at the Met Office in the United Kingdom, was one of the researchers who made the connection. Based on this earlier work, he is now using similar models to make forecasts on the sign of NAO nearly one year in advance.


    “Though this is largely a statistical relationship, there is a reason behind our forecasts. The idea is that if you want to make a forecast for the winter, then you need to look at sea surface temperatures of the winter before that,” says Rodwell.

    The NAO is responsible for the path of strong storms that pass across the Atlantic, and these strong storms influence the temperatures of the ocean. By the spring of each year, the NAO has left a deep mark on the temperatures of the Atlantic.

    During the summer, these ocean temperatures are largely preserved because a relatively thin layer of water heated by the sun covers the ocean beneath like a thermal blanket.

    When the following winter rolls around, the warm layer is removed, revealing the sea temperatures from the previous spring, which in turn affect air pressure over the Atlantic and the next NAO.
    Right so apart from the obvious change from El Nino to La Nina it looks very similar as a whole but more extreme this time round,perhaps due to the La Nina.


    sst_anom-100404.gif


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