Winter 2010-2011 outlook

pistolpetes11

Deleted User wrote: »

Both those charts are horrible from a cold perspective.
First one is a cloudy atlantic maratime high which would bring in rain showers.
The second one is a southerly over a long sea track meaning a lot of moisture.
However at least with the 2nd one,theres a lot of Waa [warm air advection] into scandi which might encourage that high up there.
It's a lot of straw clutching though as theres a lot of Waa into much of Europe in that chart too meaning theres no surface cold out East to advect over to us.
What that means is you would need a roaring Easterly for a week or more before you even begin to see some worthwhile cold air reach Ireland.
It's definitely looking like thats at least 3 weeks away if it happens at all,putting it closer to the 2nd week in february.
A lot of bland to get through in the meantime.

Regarding a cool down with a high over us in a week or two,I don't know why people get excited over that kind of thing.
They use language like "at least it will be cooler"
Does cool cloudy weather with little night frost excite some people?
They should get out more!

Straw clutching is about all we have at the moment !

The reason I posted it , well is no one is putting anything chart wise up at the moment and the tumbleweed is getting more annoying than this dull weather .

Wild Bill

What is FI? - as in "way out in FI".

Another bit of tumbleweed!

Mobhi1

Wild Bill wrote: »

What is FI? - as in "way out in FI".

Another bit of tumbleweed!

FI = Fantasy Island. Often more a dream than expected reality.:)

Speak Now

Deleted User wrote: »

Does cool cloudy weather with little night frost excite some people?
They should get out more!

They will get out more if a cooler dry spell occurs
I'd take a high sitting right on top of us right now, give the garden a chance to drain. Slight night frosts with 7/8c day time temps.

Min

I'm happy for it to be wet and mild this time time of year, then for things to dry out enough in February and March so land conditions improve.

Looking back over some of the milder winters and where cattle got out early enough to grass, one realises after the last few winters how good we had it.

Sometime what is considered bland weather is in itself exceptional weather. Lowest temperature recorded yesterday according to Met Eireann website was 8.3C.
One would find colder temperatures sometimes in the summer, this mild weather is quite exceptional, the difference between daytime highs and nighttime lows is just a little over 2C.

From the warmest temperature this month to the coldest last month is close to a 30C difference change of temperature.
Lower than -17C to over 12C.

This weather is far from boring.

pistolpetes11

Now this is the kinda talk I like to hear !

Where is everyone gone these days

There would usually be some sort of updates from the regular posters,

No sign of DM2,Maq,Wolfe,Su,WC

Now this is the kinda talk I like to hear !

from Netweather wrote:

I don't feel the outlook is as cut and dried as some suggest this morning. Looking at the ensembles and I see a possible change this morning towards a cold spell for the last week of Jan. However in the short term we're not going to see an endless spell of mild zonality as some were predicting because we have good agreement of upper temps dropping to around -4C on the 19th and the combination of this together with HP will mean frosty nights and max temps being slightly below normal.

Looking at the Iceland SLP ensembles and you will see the 06Z GFS run was not representative of the GEFS mean with a difference of around 30mb.



Im also going to mention the GEFS control run. Many have been saying that we shall not see a repeat of Dec cold spells. Now whilst this could be true of surface temps it definitively isn't the case when it comes to snowfall, upper temps. I've been saying for a while that whilst Dec surface temps will be difficult to match we could easily see colder upper temps. The GEFS control run exactly shows what I mean because not only are the upper temps much colder but snowfall would be heavier and more widespread.

Just remember +384 only takes us to Jan 30th and any talk of spring or next winter is being far too premature. Who knows maybe the best is yet to come. I will admit though I got it completely wrong about the E,ly.

Oh God,you have got it bad

I'm sticking with my hunch that it's going to be at least the end of the first week of february before we see anything cold and thats if mother nature gets working on it right now.
The high is coming-yes thats true but it's unknow what it will do.
I'll certainly meander over us for a week or 10 days so theres a forthnight gone if you include the run up to it.

What weather we get then depends on where it goes.

pistolpetes11

Deleted User wrote: »

Oh God,you have got it bad

I'm sticking with my hunch that it's going to be at least the end of the first week of february before we see anything cold and thats if mother nature gets working on it right now.
The high is coming-yes thats true but it's unknow what it will do.
I'll certainly meander over us for a week or 10 days so theres a forthnight gone if you include the run up to it.

What weather we get then depends on where it goes.

Haha , I do , absolutely love the cold wintery weather,

But dont get me wrong I love a beautiful sunny day as much as the next person, but the mild murky stuff aint for me !

Actually purchased my first weather station today !

http://www.weathershop.co.uk/shop/collections/special-offers/oregon-scientific-wmr100n-weather-station.html

I was going to go all out for the Davis but said I would gently jump in .

My apologies if people dont like the updates from the NW forum , but anything is better than nothing .

nacho libre

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Haha , I do , absolutely love the cold wintery weather,

But dont get me wrong I love a beautiful sunny day as much as the next person, but the mild murky stuff aint for me !

Actually purchased my first weather station today !

http://www.weathershop.co.uk/shop/collections/special-offers/oregon-scientific-wmr100n-weather-station.html

I was going to go all out for the Davis but said I would gently jump in .

My apologies if people dont like the updates from the NW forum , but anything is better than nothing .

You don't have to apologise. We're all in the same boat- well most of us!
Even if the worst case scenario of next weeks high sinking comes about- and that is very much a possibility with the situation up north, it would be quite a shock if we didn't get snow at some point during Feburary. February is traditionally the month that the Atlantic goes quiet as well. So a proper easterly could still develop at some point during Feburary.

BLIZZARD7

Deleted User wrote: »

Both those charts are horrible from a cold perspective.
First one is a cloudy atlantic maratime high which would bring in rain showers.

The first chart was originaly from the 00z but has since changed, here's the original -

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110114/00/312/h850t850eu.png

Which then led onto this -



Way out in FI though...





Dan

Pangea

Min wrote: »

The difference between daytime highs and nighttime lows is just a little over 2C.


This weather is far from boring.

I find little difference between daytime and nightime temperatures very boring indeed.
(Well in mild weather at least..) :pac:

It hasn't been boring here today mind you,windy with a few squally showers,that turned a sunny windy day into a dark as night windy downpour.

Flan_Da_Man125

i know its way out in the FI but niceeeee

pistolpetes11

Flan_Da_Man125 wrote: »

i know its way out in the FI but niceeeee

If that came off would the winds be blowing in from the west and strong enough too ?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=360&mode=0

BLIZZARD7

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

If that came off would the winds be blowing in from the west and strong enough too ?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=360&mode=0

Yes winds would be blowing in from the west, but it would be a very unusual setup to have uppers of -8 to -14c coming from the north west, but they would actually be coming from that chunk of polar vortex to our north-east. Serious amounts of snow if this came off...





Dan

BLIZZARD7

Nice charts in FI on the GFS 12z -








AO Looks like going neutral before going decently negative again -

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

NAO looks like going positive before going neutral/negative again -

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

High pressure looks like taking control for a while but will it be cloudy or sunny?

Interesting model output today with a few very cold runs appearing, all in FI at the moment but the building blocks are there before...something to watch while we have mild Atlantic weather... :cool:





Dan

Flan_Da_Man125

i think there will be a constant battle between warm and cold over the next couple of weeks with our best chance of colder weather at the end of january into february. i feel there is one more snowfall event in ireland before winters out but dont hold me to it cause im no weather expert

Harps

Looks very similar to mid December again I know its far out yet but finally something to keep an eye on

nacho libre

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Yes winds would be blowing in from the west, but it would be a very unusual setup to have uppers of -8 to -14c coming from the north west, but they would actually be coming from that chunk of polar vortex to our north-east. Serious amounts of snow if this came off...





Dan

Isn't that the system the guy over on Netweather was talking about for the beginning of February? To correctly predict such an unusual pattern well in advance would be seriously impressive. It would be like late January 1947 all over again if that came off:cool:

Kenring

gluckantanks wrote: »

Spot on Rebelbrowser. I'm following this thread since it began. There seems to be more posts trying to disprove Ring than there is about the Winter outlook. The man is as entitled to his opinion as everyone else. It's your own choice if you want to take what he says on board or not.

gluckantanks;)

It is unfortunate that some felt threatened when they imagined their beliefs were being challenged. Most of the flack came when, in the midst of hellish December cold, I suggested that the worst cold may only be around the early stages of winter and before Xmas Day, and overall a milder season than last year's winter could be the final result.
My thinking on this was based on 19-yr moon cycles and the waking of the sun. Now it seems like overall the winter may indeed turn out to be milder than many thought. Around the end of January/beginning of February the moon is in the south, and some counties, especially in the southwest, should warm considerably. February should be a particularly mild month, seeing that northern declination is almost a week from the perigeal full moon. Most precipitation is likely only in February's first week, with dry subzeroes only around the mid-month. March's coldest temperatures may be mostly in the second week. Summer weather should arrive in the second week of May.
cheers

Pangea

BBC monthly outlook
Published at 10:00, 17 January

(Next update at 10:00, 24 January)

Written by John Hammond
Summary
Cold comes back

Did you enjoy the milder interlude?

For many, the Atlantic winds brought a welcome change from the bitter weather of December. Yet it's arguable whether wind and rain is preferable to sunshine and frost. Indeed some of us have had far too much rain in the last week or so.

Like it or not, the warmer, wetter westerlies have already run out of steam. We must again look to the north and east for our weather. Frozen Britain - part 2?

Monday 17 January 2011 to Sunday 23 January 2011
Crisp and dry

With high pressure sitting over the UK, clear skies and light winds prevail for many through this week.

Around the edges of the high, rain will affect the south at first and the far north later. However, in between, it will stay largely dry and bright by day. Frost will be widespread at night, with a few lingering fog patches expected.

Monday 24 January 2011 to Sunday 30 January 2011
Cold block holds sway

The Atlantic winds look like being held at bay by the cold, dense block of air sitting over us. Just the far north of the UK may at times feel these milder, damper conditions.

Otherwise, high pressure will ensure plenty of dry weather, with some more crisp winter sunshine by day for most of us.

However we will always need to keep one eye on the frozen Continent. Any hint of an easterly wind coming over the North Sea brings the chance of generating some snow showers to eastern areas.

Monday 31 January 2011 to Sunday 13 February 2011
Change of month but the weather may stay 'stuck'

'Blocked' weather patterns often take a very long time to break down. Indeed, computer models are sometimes too quick to signal a return of westerlies, particularly at this time of year.

So despite the longer days and stronger sunshine of February, it may be that the cold block of high pressure persists, and temperatures remain below the nomal with widespread frost.

Details of snowfall will remain ellusive until nearer the time. However relatively high pressure should ensure a lot of dry weather.

nacho libre

Sadly with the Polar Vortex now firmly rooted over Greenland, High pressure becoming established over Europe and an unfavorable jet position, it looks like you might be right Ken about severe cold not taking hold again.
Although even if you're right about the rest of the winter, as you well know milder conditions overall compared to last year doesn't mean we won't see snow again, it just means it's unlikely to stick around for long when it comes

M.T. Cranium

Two weeks is a lifetime in weather, and the models rarely handle blocking highs very well past five days, there's no real telling whether this persistent high will really last as long as the models say today, or if we'll start to get indications of movement, and the most likely direction of movement is west, so I don't honestly feel that anything has changed in the set-up or the probability of further cold spells by late this month and into February.

The heights keep on rising here (west coast North America) which is one building block needed to see another round of pattern change.

Also there's the aspect of the blocking high itself being quite cold and delivering some below normal days before any moderating trend sets in.

In the longer term, though, I can almost smell the El Nino trying to start up, betcha this La Nina dies a quick death later this spring and we're all talking major El Nino by late this year. Feel that 2012-13 is the more likely of the next two winters to host that, but it may at least go neutral rather quickly in late 2011.

Wild Bill

Well, the latest Met Office 30-day outlook is basically saying no snow in the next month.

Mainly dry, bit of frost, maybe a bit below normal overall - but no real cold.

Looks like we might have had our entire Winter between Nov 27th and Dec 26th!

pistolpetes11

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Two weeks is a lifetime in weather, and the models rarely handle blocking highs very well past five days, there's no real telling whether this persistent high will really last as long as the models say today, or if we'll start to get indications of movement, and the most likely direction of movement is west, so I don't honestly feel that anything has changed in the set-up or the probability of further cold spells by late this month and into February.

The heights keep on rising here (west coast North America) which is one building block needed to see another round of pattern change.

Also there's the aspect of the blocking high itself being quite cold and delivering some below normal days before any moderating trend sets in.

In the longer term, though, I can almost smell the El Nino trying to start up, betcha this La Nina dies a quick death later this spring and we're all talking major El Nino by late this year. Feel that 2012-13 is the more likely of the next two winters to host that, but it may at least go neutral rather quickly in late 2011.

The high seems to have moved somewhat in the latest gfs runs , a more moderate view on what an earlier run of the ECM was looking at .

Flan_Da_Man125

i still think theres one more snow day left in this winter! maybe in february by the looks of it

nacho libre

Wild Bill wrote: »

Well, the latest Met Office 30-day outlook is basically saying no snow in the next month.

/QUOTE]

a crumb of comfort is their outlook has been changing a lot recently. so it could easily change again if new signals are picked up. which is a definite possibility. anyway i don't think even the most ardent mild forecaster would categorically rule out snow occurring in the next 30 days!

Kenring

Flan_Da_Man125 wrote: »

i still think theres one more snow day left in this winter! maybe in february by the looks of it

I think the northern declinations are the best potential times for snow, and these have been(and to come) 23 Nov, 21 Dec, 17 Jan, 13 Feb, 12 Mar and 9 April. It means after the second week of April winter should be in the past.

oneweb

Pangea wrote: »

Did you see ann doyle getting in on the act, she said 6 degrees almost seems balmy

Haha, yeah I saw that but didn't manage to record it for posterity, who would've thought she had such a sense of humour, you could even see a Mona-Lisa-esque smile about to break! Does anyone still have the clip?

Big Daddy Cool

ah what a beautiful day, just been up the fields, no rain, no wind and no snow, just a cold crisp day with a clear sky and a big sun, oh yes spring is on the way