Winter 2010-2011 outlook

BLIZZARD7

nacho libre wrote: »

You might get your wish next October if the cfs charts are to be believed:pac:

Nacho, do you have a link to the CFS charts?

Thanks.





Dan :cool:

BEASTERLY

Iancar29 wrote: »

"Possible Feb. 91 Winter Storm Repeat "

:cool:

nacho libre

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Nacho, do you have a link to the CFS charts?

Thanks.





Dan :cool:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/68239-model-output-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__2038806

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/

Elmer Blooker

The mean temp in Dublin for Jan was 3.6c, 1.4c below normal yet the month was considered a big let down.
A below normal winter month would have been unusual between 1988 and 2009
(perhaps excluding 2000/1) I think we might be getting spoiled.

thetonynator

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The mean temp in Dublin for Jan was 3.6c, 1.4c below normal yet the month was considered a big let down.
A below normal winter month would have been unusual between 1988 and 2009
(perhaps excluding 2000/1) I think we might be getting spoiled.

the let down wasn't the temps, which were cold, but the lack of snowfall. There was only one decent snowfall (more than a shower that is) and that was at the beginning of the month in a small area around kerry, north cork, limerick and tipperary. While that would have been welcomed as a big snow event until a few years ago, it is a bit of a let down now. After such a promising start to winter, everyones a bit annoyed at the thought that the rest of the snow season from january to march will pass without anything of interest happening!

Min

thetonynator wrote: »

the let down wasn't the temps, which were cold, but the lack of snowfall. There was only one decent snowfall (more than a shower that is) and that was at the beginning of the month in a small area around kerry, north cork, limerick and tipperary. While that would have been welcomed as a big snow event until a few years ago, it is a bit of a let down now. After such a promising start to winter, everyones a bit annoyed at the thought that the rest of the snow season from january to march will pass without anything of interest happening!

I disagree

BLIZZARD7

I just hope we don't end up with a horrible zonal February. I don't think we will be
that unfortunate though. There is increasing signs that a pattern change will appear
soon, maybe in the time-frame of 10th-15th of Feb. Whether this Change will be to
a significantly colder pattern or something less favourable, remains to be seen.

The 12z ECM was an interesting run that would open the door to a scandi high and down the line, a decent easterly-

+240hrs -

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110201/12/ecm500.240.png


This shows what could happen if the polar vortex shifts to the west of Greenland,towards Baffin. It allows heights to build to our north-east. This would be a nice building block to have in place, all that would be needed is a low favourably placed to our south and then the cold air would flood west.

I won't show any GFS op run charts as they are showing zero support for a nice scandi high.

AO/NAO ensembles are showing signs of dropping into negative territory but really have being flip-floping all over place for the last few weeks-


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

PNA is forecast to go negative -

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif


Now I notice today that Global angular momentum is on the increase. Not sure exactly what effect this will have on our weather, if any, but is interesting all the same.



Now mountain torque is increasing overall and quite significantly so over Eastern Asia ATM. I am not sure on this, but I read somewhere that mountain torque increasing over E.Asia can cause a stratospheric warming at a later stage-

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltaum.90day.gif


Might be completely wrong about that though.
Will be watching the strato forecasts to see if this theory
has any truth in it -

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif

We are currently experiencing a warming at the 10hpa
level over the pole but this doesn't seem to be significantly effecting the temp at other levels unfortunately. (maybe a little bit at the 30hpa level.)

In summary-

Zonal weather is the pattern for the minute but I believe it won't last too
long and that the cold will make a return for
the second half of feb. I know that I said I was sure it would return at the
end of January but in the end, it didn't happen.
I admit, I was wrong. I think I underestimated the size of the polar
vortex to our north and the unfavourable position it is in.
Maybe il be wrong again, hopefully I won't be though.





Dan

alfa beta

gfs starting to hint at a return of cold weather latter part of feb too - seriously far out fi (384 hours) but signs of an easterly airflow and -8 uppers coming within touching distance - one to keep an eye on - but wouldn't be getting my hopes up for some fun weather just yet!!

thetonynator

Min wrote: »

I disagree

you always do in the winter! :P

Elmer Blooker

alfa beta wrote: »

gfs starting to hint at a return of cold weather latter part of feb too - seriously far out fi (384 hours) but signs of an easterly airflow and -8 uppers coming within touching distance - one to keep an eye on - but wouldn't be getting my hopes up for some fun weather just yet!!

:eek: an easterly for polling day on feb 25th, convective snow showers in eastern areas? I'm not going to pay attention to anything so far off in FI but the Atlantic does appear to quieten down next week. one to keep an eye on indeed!

J6P

The 6z ensembles show a few more cold solutions..maybe one last throw of the dice before winter is out:)

nacho libre

alfa beta wrote: »

gfs starting to hint at a return of cold weather latter part of feb too - seriously far out fi (384 hours) but signs of an easterly airflow and -8 uppers coming within touching distance - one to keep an eye on - but wouldn't be getting my hopes up for some fun weather just yet!!

don't be getting Min's hope up like that.

Lirange

Does Punxsutawney Phil's prognostication extend to Ireland? He didn't see his shadow. So early spring for the northern hemisphere?

alfa beta

alfa beta wrote: »

gfs starting to hint at a return of cold weather latter part of feb too - seriously far out fi (384 hours) but signs of an easterly airflow and -8 uppers coming within touching distance - one to keep an eye on - but wouldn't be getting my hopes up for some fun weather just yet!!

and as if by magic.....it's completely gone the next run!!!!

Pangea

Has there ever been an election with snow or heavy snow around on the day?
Last novembers election day here was very frosty and made the turnout slow in some areas.

Cantona's Collars

Here's an interesting satellite pic showing the extent of snow in the Northern Hemisphere.

Iancar29

zerks wrote: »

Here's an interesting satellite pic showing the extent of snow in the Northern Hemisphere.

Ice-Age much? haha :pac:

lolie

i wonder where that little green dot in the middle is:rolleyes:

BLIZZARD7

Today we have taken another step in the right direction. Scandi high has strong support now, the orientation of it is going to either make or break our winter now. Waa gets pumped straight into the arctic on the 06z GFS, causing the euro/scandi high to ridge north and link up with the arctic high.

GFS 06z at +276hrs -


This is almost the best easterly possible though.

Has good support from the ensembles - Dublin -

http://www.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20110203/06/t850Dublin.png

Mean now drops to -5C on the 15th, with plenty of colder options.

Oslo ensembles showing strong support for a pressure rise -




The ECM 00z also supports this idea, UKMO is not on board though and until it is I won't get too excited.

The GFS has being hinting at this for a few days and before that the BOM and GEM did as well.

Will do a more detailed post later, could be big freeze part 3 though.





Dan :cool:

MiNdGaM3

An impressively strong signal for height rises over Scandanavia in around 10 days times. This is the ensemble mean for 850hPa temps and sea level pressure at t318.




This has more support due to the forecast split in the vortex and the ECM showing a similar evolution.



While things can of course change and nothing is set in stone yet, there are plenty of reasons to keep hoping for a return to very wintry conditions before the month is out:D

Edit: Snap!

patneve2

Love this morning's Dublin ensembles, injects a good bit of hope into the rest of the winter. I'd say there is a very high likelihood of a cold spell somewhere in Europe, whether it hits us is another matter.

Iancar29

Agree with the above post!



MY EXCITEMENT IS BUILDING !!!!..... "bloop bloop BLOop BLOOP! "

Musicman2000

Ill wait for the 12z before getting to excited:)

BLIZZARD7

GFS 12z is close but no cigar, was almost an outlier on the Berlin ensembles though.


ECM 12z is very nice, stalls the low further west than the UKMO/GFS and the scandi high ridges further north and west.

+120 hrs - WAA being pumped straight into the arctic -

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-120.GIF?03-0

+144 hrs - WAA still being pumped directly north, pressure rises to our north and the polar vortex splits very nicely -

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-144.GIF?03-0

+168 hrs - Nice High to our north, Vortex completely split. -

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-168.GIF?03-0

+192 hrs - cold air being advected west by strong scandi high -

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-192.GIF?03-0

+216 hrs - The beast is well on it's way, beautiful scandi high -

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-216.GIF?03-0

+240 hrs - Freezing easterlies, heavy snowfalls in the east -

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-240.GIF?03-0

Very nice run and overall today the models have being very encouraging, just hope it's not a phantom easterly.





Dan :cool:

Min

The UK met office is giving nothing extreme for the next month.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Wild Bill

zerks wrote: »

Here's an interesting satellite pic showing the extent of snow in the Northern Hemisphere.

So much for the gulf stream weakening! :cool: