Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Wild Bill

Wild Bill wrote: »

Major divergence between what Irish Weather Online and Met Eireann are saying about Christmas Day and Stephen's Day.

Looks like a high noon shoot-out at the frozen corral! :cool:

Well, Met Eireann blinked first! They have put the "strong thaw" back by 36 hours - into Stephen's Day! :cool:

pistolpetes11

Well now ,

Is this the beginning of the Siberian express looking to come into town ?

Ding dong I say ,

O happy Christmas to all you and yours folks

isle of man

that dont look as cold as the last cold spell we had

dexter647

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Well now ,

Is this the beginning of the Siberian express looking to come into town ?

Ding dong I say ,

O happy Christmas to all you and yours folks

Queue the rocky music:D:D

maquiladora

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Well now ,

Is this the beginning of the Siberian express looking to come into town ?

192 hours + control run = probably not going to happen :pac:

Still though, another cold spell early in the new year is likely I think.

pistolpetes11

maquiladora wrote: »

192 hours + control run = probably not going to happen :pac:

Still though, another cold spell early in the new year is likely I think.

Yeah , should of really went into the FI charts , but hay its Chrrrrrrriiiiiisssssttttttmmmmmaaaassssssssss !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

opinion guy

So the news is telling me to expect a thaw tomorrow and warning of flooding.

I remain skeptical. What do you pros think?

mike65

Wait 24 hours and see?

maquiladora

opinion guy wrote: »

So the news is telling me to expect a thaw tomorrow and warning of flooding.

I remain skeptical. What do you pros think?

Check out the thaw/flooding thread on here...

opinion guy

mike65 wrote: »

Wait 24 hours and see?

I'm impatient dammit:D


errr also this is the outlook thread....not the wait and see thread :rolleyes:

BEASTERLY

For the last few runs the models have been playing with the idea of spewing cold out of the arctic spewing out some cold air into the first week of 2011. Both the GFS and ECM have been showing this but of course at this time frame it's still a long-shot.

And if it does happen the cold air may hit somewhere else in the mid-latitudes and not us but hey, it's possibility and any more cold is really just a bonus.

Heres some examples:

GFS:


ECM:

mike65

Wetternzentral GSF showing the Atlantic will take charge again after a brief high pressure inspired SE air flow later this week.

nacho libre

GSF always goes in to default atlantic mode in fi, but even discounting that model, it would seem the snow is gone for a good while. it maybe that Stuart Rampling and Joe Bastardi, who were wrong about December being near average temperature wise, are right about the core of the cold being over the near continent from now on. Well it's early to write off January as a whole, but the current models projections don't look great for the foreseeable future it has to be said. Hopefully they'll pick up on a new trend of a high retrogressing towards Greenland in the next few days.

snow ghost

Kenring wrote: »

December brings sub-zero temperatures, except around 19th and 25th.

- I'd call the - 12.7c I recorded on the morning of the 25th fairly sub-zero, I believe most, if not all of the country was sub-zero too.

Kenring wrote: »

Xmas Day should be dry, cloudy but fairly mild and unlikely to be white,

'Fairly mild' - I think it got to -8 here in the afternoon, I wouldn't call that mild, would you? Most of the country had a white Christmas in terms of lying snow.

Kenring wrote: »

becoming colder around New year.

It is hard to imagine it being colder than the record low temps recorded throughout December at many of ME's stations around the country in December or in the past week.

We'll see, but I expect this to be as wrong as the rest of your forecast Ken.

Btw, I keep hearing that the local radio station Mid-West are going to give you your 'p45' as you never predicted the December extreme weather we had here in Mayo, is this true?

opinion guy

snow ghost wrote: »

Btw, I keep hearing that the local radio station Mid-West are going to give you your 'p45' as you never predicted the December extreme weather we had here in Mayo, is this true?

Ok can I say something here ?

I come to this thread because its interesting. I like to look at the pretty pictures that I don't understand. I like to read the information the knowledgeable people here dispense. I don't know or particularly care who the different people are. Think of me as a fascinated, though relatively clueless visitor.

But I am increasingly noticing some seemingly personal squabbles/sniping like this above apparently is. And, as a visitor to your fine forum, I must say I find it very offputting. I really wish ye would leave it out of an otherwise fascinating and stimulating thread.

Sponge Bob

The ECM model which is the one that Met Eireann largely defers to for medium range forecasts up to 5 days is showing a strong Atlantic influence out to weds next week.

To watch the pattern click here

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

Click "Précharger" to load all the grapics and then "anim" below it to animate the week.

Hirlam shows rain until monday teatime (mouseover down the list of the times once it loads)

http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,418

Jet stream setup shows Jet Stream blocking the cold crap into Europe by friday

http://www.woeurope.eu/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=eu&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=jeps&HH=108&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Thank feck for that, it will take a few weeks for the price of Heating Oil to come down to something that willl not kill people from the cold

You can say that again, the oil tankers haven't left the road around this area!

snow ghost

opinion guy wrote: »

Ok can I say something here ?

I come to this thread because its interesting. I like to look at the pretty pictures that I don't understand. I like to read the information the knowledgeable people here dispense. I don't know or particularly care who the different people are. Think of me as a fascinated, though relatively clueless visitor.

But I am increasingly noticing some seemingly personal squabbles/sniping like this above apparently is. And, as a visitor to your fine forum, I must say I find it very offputting. I really wish ye would leave it out of an otherwise fascinating and stimulating thread.

What exactly is 'personal squabbles/sniping' about my post?

I have been told on numerous occassions that the local raido station Mid West - the presenter Paul Claffey to be precise - is apparently 'gunning' for Ken because he forecast ( he does pieces on mid West ) was so wrong regarding December and that he has said on air that he intends to give him his p45.

If you don't want people to mention such weather related media stories or question forecasts posted here that is your perogative, but don't try and demean others' points of view as 'personal squabbles/sniping' to justify your own sensitivity.

If John Eagleton came here and posted a December forecast and was apparently being given his p45 by a local radio station I would be happy to comment on it, I don't see why you think Ken should be immune from such discussion? Perhaps you could explain?

Musicman2000

Sponge Bob wrote: »

The ECM model which is the one that Met Eireann largely defers to for medium range forecasts up to 5 days is showing a strong Atlantic influence out to weds next week.

To watch the pattern click here

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

Click "Précharger" to load all the grapics and then "anim" below it to animate the week.

Hirlam shows rain until monday teatime (mouseover down the list of the times once it loads)

http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,418

Jet stream setup shows Jet Stream blocking the cold crap into Europe by friday

http://www.woeurope.eu/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=eu&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=jeps&HH=108&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Thank feck for that, it will take a few weeks for the price of Heating Oil to come down to something that willl not kill people from the cold

Should be that wet atlantic crap till next wen:) then it gets cold and dry before another blast might hit us the first week in Jan but thats well in F1

Discodog

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Hirlam shows rain until monday teatime (mouseover down the list of the times once it loads)

http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,418

Excellent link. Is there any way of zooming on Ireland ?. This is what I have been looking for !

downwiththatsor

Discodog wrote: »

Excellent link. Is there any way of zooming on Ireland ?. This is what I have been looking for !

Just zoom the whole page by pressing the Ctrl and + buttons at the same time.

thetonynator

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Time to confirm what I've been hinting at here and in the daily forecast thread.

My long-range seasonal outlook calls for colder than normal temperatures for most of the winter months, and higher than normal snowall amounts.

Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.

The January outlook calls for this cold to deepen for part of the month before a brief reversal indicated by some of the research index values. Therefore the month may feature some major winter storms mid-month as this pattern reversal begins. Despite the milder end, the month is likely to continue to average below normal by about the same amount as December, 1-2 C and possibly more.

February was less conclusive from the research index values but unless the January reversal is highly energetic, could see the blocking redeveloping and leading to a colder than normal February as well.

Given the strength of cold in the outlook and the dependence of mean winter temperatures on snow cover near the lower end of the spectrum, one cannot rule out a sort of near-extreme or even extreme outcome, since mean monthly temperatures below 2.0 tend to promote continuous snow cover and therefore a fairly easy slide down to sub-freezing values from the same air masses as are present for 2-3 C.

In other words, I'm predicting a cold winter with lots of snow, that could become an epic winter. Stay tuned.

One other detail to note, the storm frequency from my research should be on a fairly well-modulated 3.5-day cycle with stronger events every seven days or so (this is not exact so it won't work out to the same day every week). The stronger events are likely to produce their share of slow-moving but deep "Channel" or French lows promoting a strong east wind and outbreaks of snow. One of the better scenarios I foresee for snowfall comes with the December full moon and "northern max" event of 21 December. This is bound to produce an intense storm over western Europe and I am giving something like 2-1 odds for this to be a cold weather storm event with at least some snow or sleet in the mix for Ireland, whereas if the pattern happens to be stuck on mild then, look for a very mild and windy sort of event followed by much colder weather.

In general, through the mid-winter period, the stormy episodes will fall at full and new moons, and approximately mid-way between them with a second set of high-energy peaks. This pattern will continue into late winter but with the secondary energy peaks decoupling from the primary (full/new) this gives a more frequent distribution of storms that, if coupled with a cold pattern in February, could lead to a steady parade of disturbances around the southern flanks of blocking high pressure to the north and northeast.

Anyone interested in a more detailed forecast could find one later today on Net-weather posted by my research associate and friend, Blast from the Past as he is known to the weather forum world. That will be UK-centric but after all, the winter patterns are bound to be quite similar, and the general theme appears to be cold winning out over mild again this winter.

Looks like this pattern could be setting up gradually later this month, and I would not be surprised if there is some snow even in late November.

As i posted in the other thread, genius!

downwiththatsor

thetonynator wrote: »

As i posted in the other thread, genius!

Thanks for that thetonynator, what was the date of that legendary prediction again?

thetonynator

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Thanks for that thetonynator, what was the date of that legendary prediction again?

15th of November.

maquiladora

Thats the way uh-hu uh-huh I like it, uh-huh uh-huh... :cool:



I know it's not going to happen, but it's nice to see the snowfests back in the FI charts again already. :pac:

thetonynator

maquiladora wrote: »

I know it's not going to happen, but it's nice to see the snowfests back in the FI charts again already. :pac:

think we have a thread for that range of forecasting!!!

maquiladora

thetonynator wrote: »

think we have a thread for that range of forecasting!!!

But maybe it will come true if its in this thread.

downwiththatsor

maquiladora wrote: »

Thats the way uh-hu uh-huh I like it, uh-huh uh-huh... :cool:



I know it's not going to happen, but it's nice to see the snowfests back in the FI charts again already. :pac:

Yeah sick of this heat already, have had to move to the furthest part of the room from the fire :pac: Waiting for FI will be worse than waiting for the spell just past at 120hrs.

opinion guy

maquiladora wrote: »

But maybe it will come true if its in this thread.

Its the magic of the thread!!!

thetonynator

maquiladora wrote: »

But maybe it will come true if its in this thread.

Always the optimist . . :rolleyes: