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Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,023 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    No signs of a resurgent return of the Atlantic conveyor belt in the medium term.


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,149 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    GFS and Ukmo are dry and cold with everything moved South. By Friday amazingly they both agree on a quick breakdown to mild and wet with very little in the way of transient snowfall.

    What a fail Winter 22/23 has been. After months of boredom it can't even produce right at the end. Not one but two SSWs and still a fail!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,023 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    All 12z output points to a fairly unremarkable cold spell. The midweek low shifts further south which isn't unexpected as models initially tend to overegg lows when they come up against a block. The retreat west of the Greenland high into Canada is the death of any prospects of the cold spell lasting beyond Thursday/Friday.

    So many factors need to be in place for widespread snow to fall in Ireland. Right now looking at the prospects, it's like working for hours on a 1000 piece Jigsaw knowing youre missing a couple of corner pieces. There will be more changes by this time tomorrow but the window for anything very wintry occuring is closing quickly.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,938 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    I had 3 different people mention “100% there’s snow due for next week” to me between yesterday and today.

    Boys oh boys but It’s mad how the hype train builds up so much steam in Ireland.

    Then after all the talk and hype the event itself disappoints - inevitably



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,331 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Some of the models do still offer some snow next week. Let's wait and see what the ECM says. I think a milder turn is odds on though into the weekend, as WolfeEire said without something to hold the Greenland High in place over Greenland we are on borrowed time. The systems keep coming and inevitably the Iberian High wants to get a look in!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,434 ✭✭✭esposito


    You say that yet the Atlantic will almost certainly break through next weekend on latest guidance anyway. But as you say as long as there’s no conveyor belt then the Atlantic might go back to sleep soon.

    What baffles me is the Greenland High moving to Canada and not staying where it is after the two recent SSW’s 🤔 why does the PV appear to be moving back to its usual place after the recent SSW. Doesn’t the PV usually weaken in March? It’s all a bit mad Ted.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,149 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The ecm brings deeper cold in on Wednesday with minus 8s or lower across the country. With a Southeasterly wind it should be enough to kick off showers across the South Coast. I think I would favour getting in the proper cold over the marginal low being further North. Let's see where the rest of run goes



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,023 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Ecm follows all other main models in 12z. Two day cold snap. The Greenland high disappears like it's leaving the scene of a crime. Heights building from the south 👎👎👎 Looking like North America in for a big freeze.


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Ah well! It was fun while it lasted! It can stay dry now! No fecking cold rain!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,331 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    That ECM run a few days ago showing things going wrong now looks to have been onto something. To add insult to injury, we can't even get a decent all snow frontal event out of it.


    It's not the despair, Laura.

    I can take the Despair

    It's the hope I can't stand. I feel like that now. I am ready to pack it in, unless I see a stonking high smack in the centre of Greenland by mid month. Some people never learn. Hah.

    Post edited by nacho libre on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,331 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    A friend just showed me a picture of the snow he got five years ago. His back door was blocked from top to bottom due to a snow drift! I am gutted I was not here for that. I was not expecting anything like that this week of course, but a decent snow event would have been good!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭walterking




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,293 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z does show slow moving frontal snow later Weds into Thurs but rain following and getting up to 12C as the milder airs flood in unimpeded whilst staying cold in the furthest North over reamaining snow.

    Mad run goes on to show 14 to 15C on Fri and up to 12C on Sat bit cooler again over the weekend and then the maddest chart showing heavy Snow Tuesday in the the top third of the country with huge accumulations of 10 to 18cm, staying below freezing over the snow fields by 12.00 while it is 12C in Cork 🤣🤣

    Need a bucket of salt with that one but maybe this is an outlier with the mild from Thursday.


    ICON EU showing frontal snow later Weds into Thurs and staying cold. GFS showing no front and staying cold. GEM showing frontal snow in Munster and the colder airmass still intact, keeping the much milder air well offshore.

    So lots of uncertainty.







  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,023 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Me consigning this thread and cold spell to the recycle bin and then reading meteorite's post


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Things were starting to look exciting about 3 days ago and then that mild ECM run came through and since then we have never really recovered, this now looks fairly uneventful for the country unless we see sudden upgrades over the next 24 hours which I don't think will happen.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    re your last sentence. No it does not! The last days have been perfect weather, mild and kindly



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭highdef


    I'm with you on your comment @Graces7 - I've been enjoying the weather of late, except the times it's been wet/drizzly, of course. So great to see the ground so dry in most parts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,023 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    ECM op run showing Thursday warmup to be on the extreme mild end of the ensembles. Return to milder weather much slower based on the mean


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,149 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    I've lived through 50 years of Winters and I find the following odd

    - No hurricane hitting land in 10 years+

    - Sudden change in projected synoptics with little notice

    I strongly believe weather modification is going on at a top secret level. For various reasons more so this year. I don't ever remember a Winter where high pressure just sat over us. 50 years is a long stat!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭mcburns07




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 107 ✭✭AnFearCeart


    Some sceptics suspect this facility and other similar ones have the ability to alter//influence weather patterns. Perhaps or perhaps not, but there probably are projects ongoing into the study of weather modification. I think in the future we'll have the technology to alter the weather to benefit crop growing, encourage rainfall in arid lands etc...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,391 ✭✭✭.Donegal.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,250 ✭✭✭OldRio


    So. A busted flush. Delighted. Bring on spring.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,023 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    18z GFS prolongs cold until Friday morn in South and sat morn in northern counties delivering a snow to rain event for northern half of island at least. Potential for some light to moderate backedge snow for a time Monday Eve into night as a cold front sinks south. It will be all change for better or worse tomorrow, depending on what season youre looking for.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,198 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    That's always far and away the most likely scenario but unless you have a crystal ball, a bit early to call that as a certainty. Taken literally, several current charts including the most recent (18z gfs) show snow next week for many.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,250 ✭✭✭OldRio


    A crystal ball might be an improvement on some of the computer models.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,198 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Silence this morning is telling. This looks very shortlived now and, unless the gfs is right, pretty unremarkable



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,434 ✭✭✭esposito


    Fair play to you for having the b***s to set up the thread though. It was looking good a few days ago. We were fooled again by the models.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37 Derekon2021


    Indeed. And let that be a very valuable lesson for new posters to the forum. If there is even a wee chance of snow chances evaporating, they will. Golden Rule: The Atlantic Ocean is king in terms of Irish winters - and that means dismal snow prospects......

    D



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Another set of GFS FI charts over the past week which once again fail to verify. I'm beginning to wonder has any of the GFS FI charts i've posted since early late November actually verified in the end? The ECM did toy with the idea of a proper cold spell for a little while but nowhere near the extent of the GFS and ECM was also first to give us the wake up call. After an entire winter of disappointment, this busted flush comes as no surprise where the Atlantic or high pressure just killls any chances of snow each and every time. We may have another go at a cold spell in the second half of March but i've zero interest by that point. Now let's start wishing for warmer weather soon with some proper spring like conditions with my thoughts now moving towards the summer.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,975 ✭✭✭squonk


    Yeah I salute your enthusiasm but after being arid here a long time and being perched in the edge of the Atlantic I have seen enough busts from promising scenarios to be very wary until the snow is actually falling pretty much. In the end though that’s mostly what AB lot of us were going to see, snow falling but being too wet to stick and if it did, melting before anyone could freely enjoy it. Too late in the year now and ultimately we’re a snag island surrounded by a relatively warm ocean. That’s never a good start. March 2018 is one of those delightful outliers and just shows that we know what to expect 99.9% of the time but it’s that 0.1% that covers along and surprises you. Never say never of course but I don’t expect to see a significant snowfall like 2018 at this point of March in the rest of my lifetime.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,163 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    ...and the start of another 7 months now of you complaining ad nauseam about the lack of any sun and warmth.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,280 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I didn't complain about it much since the summer of 2020 which was brutal. The past 2 summers have been decent especially for warm to high temperatures.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,960 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    I am just back from a walk. The breeze is cold but there's now real warmth from the sun. Any snow won't last long unless it stays cloudy



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,293 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    First I think this thread is totally warranted, the thread is very well titled Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March

    I respect that there are many different perspectives, hopes, wishes, dreams and as such there will be corresponding emotions but lets not loose track of the thread title.

    I think it is likely that there will be snow at times next week in the middle of wintry precipitation. From word go this has always been the case. There will be snow and hail showers of the convective nature around the coasts initially, mostly in Northern areas with some moving inland but there is a fair chance of frontal snow as well, ECM showing from early Weds forming in the SW and slowly moving up the country, but not a lot of support for this from the other models apart from GEM....and yes this could be followed by sleet and rain but hey that is the weather.

    I feel there is no point coming into this thread bemoaning the fact that there is not a foot of powder snow, that was always highly unlikely and it wont happen this week coming. It will be rain or sleet or snow and wet at that probably, relatively short lived with what now looks like fronts lining up to cross the country from Weds/ Thurs, these may still be wintry over Northern counties into Fri with snow accumulations possible there at times, especially over more elevated terrain.

    So ECM now brining the front slowly up over the country on Weds keeping day time temperatures quite low especially where snow is lying. GFS delays this until late Weds into Thurs. ICON not showing the front on Weds sticking to Thurs, GEM quite similar to the ECM

    Not as mild now for Thurs but showing touching 10C around Southern coastal areas. ECM sticking to very mild for most away from Northern areas on Fri after initially being very wet overnight into the morning, breezy to windy also ( see a 15C down South !). Looks like plenty of rain after that at times but could get a bit colder again the following week with the chance of wintry showers.

    Temp prediction during Weds daylight hours below giving some small amounts of lying snow for a time but all open to change as we well know.






  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,289 ✭✭✭pauldry


    A lot of pinches of salt are needed for this spell because while that accumulated snow chart looks like the country is covered it is really the amount of snow that falls from the sky. e.g 3cm of snow could fall over the course of a couple of days and none lie which is likely in March.

    Ulster will probably have some lying snow but anywhere else extremely borderline. The deep cold always stays North of us on the ECM but reaches Ulster for a time. Probably 4 to 6c for the rest of the country most of the week. Might be ice at night and some snow then.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 244 ✭✭Keithchap


    A strong Blocking system is forming over Greenland, changing the Weather patterns across Northern Hemisphere as we head into Spring



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,898 ✭✭✭CrowdedHouse


    Seven Worlds will Collide



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 145 ✭✭King of Spades


    My brother in London just said it’s snowing lightly there now despite it being 5c and not feeling that cold.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,674 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Urban radiation retention. Its much colder not very far up, so snow will make it to ground, but not stick.

    London will become proper cold the next few days, though snowfall is uncertain.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,110 ✭✭✭KanyeSouthEast


    Bit similar to others complaining about the lack of snow for 7 months and starting threads for “events” that won’t last more than 24 hours lol



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,392 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The snow and graupel showers drifting on to the east coast later on Monday night could lead to a light covering with Dublin/Wicklow most likely. As regards beyond we are really looking at frontal snow events when the Atlantic systems bump up against the cold air. Difficult to forecast with accuracy but at the very least transitionary snowfall is very likely but we'll have to see how the forecasts play out.

    For now, I'd focus on Monday night for eastern coastal counties.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,391 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Met office snow showers for the north on Tuesday and Castlederg on their website has -10 for Tuesday night.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,023 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    ICON 12z sees a snow/sleet to rain event on Wednesday with much milder temps over the southern two thirds of the country by the end of the day. For the next 7 days thereafter, a cold airmass sits just to the north of Ireland. Northern Scotland holds on to winter throughout. High pressure to our south acts as the bouncer and no cold is getting in 🤚


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,023 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Wed/Thur Atlantic front meeting cold air. Transitioning from snow to rain further south


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,163 ✭✭✭squarecircles



    heavy frontal snow from thursday afternoon across the middle of the country on the latest gfs, BANK, only 99 hours away,what could go wrong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,023 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    A less aggressive mild push showing up on the UKMO and GFS 12z output. Wasn't expecting that tbh. Models overegging Atlantic lows? Will see what the ensembles say

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,392 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Some places are going to get a good bit of snow this week from these frontal zones. Narrow margins between the haves and have nots.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 157 ✭✭Niall145


    Huge upgrade on the latest GFS, multiple snow events for many and cold keeps reloading into the week after, let's see what the ECM says....



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